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S&P 3,000 Thursday – Markets Up 350% from March 2009 Lows!

350%! 

That's 3.5 times more than the S&P 500 was valued at just 10 years ago.  That would imply economic growth of 35% a year for the past 10 years so kudos to all the believers although, to be fair, we thought the market was toppy at 2,850 last year and we're really only up 150 (5%) since then so let's not get too excited that we're finally  hitting 3,000 after trying for 18 months

All the heavy lifting, from 666 to 2,500 (275%) was done under Obama's watch and the economy was doing so well that the Fed was tightening and reducting their balance sheet.  30 months into Trump's turn in office and the Fed is hitting the panic button again, reversing course and actually going back to cutting rates to help stabilize an economy ravaged by rampaging deficits, political instability and pointless trade wars.  

And that's considered the "GOOD" news that traders are embracing from Powell's comments as he stretches to justify bowing to pressure from the President to lower rates despite all the prosperity the President claims we are enjoying.  Of course it makes no sense – but is that a reason not to pay all-time high prices for stocks?  $1Tn for Apple (AAPL), $1Tn for Microsoft (MSFT), $1Tn for Amazon (AMZN)… sure, why not?  After all, what's a Trillion anyway – we run up more than that in debt every 12 months now.  

We're on a path towards making money meaningless so why not spend it on over-priced equities?  As you can see from the chart above, it's been a pretty much straight up 10-year run with only 6 noticeable corrections so once every 18 months we average a pullback on our 350% run.  No wonder so many people are trained to buy any dip – it's been a winning formula since Generation Y got out of college – they don't know any better.  

Ignorance can truly be bliss in a bull market as traders are content to ride stocks like Amazon to the moon while more cautious investors might have taken some off the table half a Trillion Dollars ago.  Just yesterday, AMZN gained 1.5% or $15Bn in market cap despite the fact that only $10Bn worth of shares (4.9M) were traded and half of those were people selling, not buying.  This whole rally has been market by a very scary lack of volume which usually we would say indicates a lack of conviction but someone sure is convicted with the entire S&P up 350% in 10 years!  

As you can see from the chart, AMZN stock is up 40x since the 2009 lows and their revenues were $27Bn back in 2009 and now it's $232Bn so that's up 7.5x and they didn't have profits then and now they are making $10Bn so why not pay $1,000,000,000,000 for the company – it's only 100x the current earnings and 4x revenues…  As Keynes said "The market can remain irrational longer than you or I can remain solvent" so we don't bet against AMZN – we just sit back and watch the show. 

AMZN is, in fact, one of just 77 stocks that have driven the markets higher this year while the other 11,000 Global stocks are struggling to stay even, according to a study by Société Générale.  “This is a problem,” SocGen's Lapthorne said. “Our increasing focus on a few large-company indices populated by just a fraction of the world’s stocks is giving investors a false impression.  The average investor is being presented with a peak in the S&P 500, which reached a record high earlier this month, yet numerous companies are struggling."

Figures from FactSet, a financial research company, showed that, on average, S&P 500 companies’ Gross Profit (which discounts overheads) fell by 2.6% in the second quarter of the year relative to the same period in 2018.  Of the 114 firms that reported results in the period, three quarters issued pessimistic turnover expectations.  The first three months also witnessed a decline in gross profit relative to the previous year, marking the first time since 2016 that the American market saw two consecutive quarters of falling profits. The S&P 500 index rose by 18% over the same period.

Image result for global oligarchsThe 77 large-cap companies that are moving the markets comprise 26% of the entire Global Market Cap – yet another case of the rich getting much richer while 11,000 companies with market caps below $1Bn (the poor) got an average of 10% poorer this year in terms of valuation.  This is what we expect to happen as automation moves us towards a society where a select few companies will own all the robots and they will drive out all competition and make all the money.  This is why the Oligarchs are seizing control of our Governments – only legislation can stop them, so they want to eliminate that threat.

Meanwhile, we don't seem to be able to beat them, so we might as well join them and go along for the ride.  While AMZN may be over-priced, MSFT is not too terrible at 30x earnings and Apple (AAPL) is a downright bargain at 12x earnings as are IBM (10x), CSCO (20x) and, of course, Intel (INTC) at 11x because those robots are going to need brains in order to kill humans and they are going to need to get their instructions over the WiFi as to which humans to kill with software from MSFT and hardware from IBM and design by Apple (something that looks good covered in human blood) so we're all on the right side of the Robot Revolution when it comes. 


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  1. This is one strange guy with lots of secrets it seems:

    http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2019/07/how-did-jeffrey-epstein-make-his-fortune.html

    If I had been associated with him in the past, I might be worried.


  2. Morning All!

    The webinar replay is now up!

    https://youtu.be/n2dSSVx4_3E


  3. Good morning!

    Same as yesterday, we're looking for shorting lines @ 26,900, 3,000, 7,900 and 1,580 – the Nas is above (7,935), the Dow is above (26,955) and the RUT is below (1,567) but the S&P (/ES) is still the easiest short as that's a strong line to use for a stop if it breaks (and the others confirm).  

    Powell Sounds Dovish Enough to Open Door for a Half-Point Cut

    Oil Rides to 7-Week High on Gulf Storm, Tightening U.S. Supply

    Iranian gunboats tried, failed to seize British oil tanker, US official says.

    Storm could become first hurricane of season and is already shutting down energy operations.

    When the Fed cuts rates without a recession, stocks go higher 100% of the time

    PBOC Panics, Demands Central Bank Oversight Of Facebook's Libra. 


  4. Hi Where are all the BBBY believer of yesterday 9% down again on an up market, Hate if I do not follow my own nose.


  5. Phil / BBBY – earnings not stellar – I don't understand how they took another charge this quarter after taken a similar charge last quarter.  I'm really struggling with this one.   


  6. In Germany a similar company is already buying back old furniture in hope and desperation  people would buy new once.
    Fools rush in where angels etc etc



  7. Kamala Harris soars in our latest 2020 rankings



  8. Fact check: Trump wrong on all 3 claims in tweet on Iran deal



  9. WOW- I do believe the noose is tightening on our Cheeto -in- Chief. Between Epstein and DB there is a whole semiload of scandal. There are pics of Cheeto and Epstein at one of the Palm Beach party's. And the records coming from the bank? Better than a spy novel.


  10. ~~BBBY - (initiated with a Sell at Goldman.

    This isn't helping.


  11. This is basically my Q3 outlook:

    A similarly bearish view about the economy and stocks was issued this week by another colleague of Sheets at Morgan Stanley, Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer for the firm's wealth management division. "Economic data is deteriorating at a faster rate than prior to the 2015-2016 minirecession. Trade policy has become a drag on growth, and resulting earnings weakness could be compounded if the cash flow fueling buybacks is impaired," she writes in the latest edition of The GIC Weekly, from the global investment committee at Morgan Stanley.

    "Radical divergence from the fundamentals is rarely sustainable," Shalett warns, with respect to a surging S&P 500 in the face deteriorating economic data. Historical patterns, meanwhile, were raised as an additional concern by Sheets. “July 13-October 12 has historically been the worst 90-day period for equity returns since 1990, possibly because liquidity and risk appetite tend to worsen after 2Q results,” Sheets indicated. “And given high expectations of central bank easing, and a number of geopolitical uncertainties, the risk that poor liquidity magnifies bad news seems credible.”


  12. Russell leading the collapse yet again:

    BBBY/Yodi, Batman - They did make 0.12 per share (adjusted net of non-cash goodwill impairments) and expectations were 0.08 – people just have no patience at all for restructuring.  Also, they won't have to pay taxes for a few years now.  Revenues were in-line at $2.6Bn.  Same store sales were disappointing but that's because they are pushing on-line sales more than anything else.  For the year, they are still guiding $2.15 per what is now a $10.50 share.

    In the LTP, we bought 50 of the 2021 $10 ($4)/17.50 (1.55) bull call spreads and we already have 20 short 2021 $15 puts we sold for $4.  The $10s are down to $2.80 and the $7.50s are $4.40 so too soon to roll but close.   The OOP, however, can be adjusted:  

    BBBY Short Put 2021 15-JAN 15.00 PUT [BBBY @ $10.59 $-0.93] -5 9/27/2018 (554) $-2,000 $4.00 $2.13 $-9.83     $6.13 - $-1,063 -53.1% $-3,063
    BBBY Long Call 2021 15-JAN 15.00 CALL [BBBY @ $10.59 $-0.93] 25 2/15/2019 (554) $12,125 $4.85 $-3.40     $1.45 $-0.19 $-8,500 -70.1% $3,625
    BBBY Short Call 2021 15-JAN 22.50 CALL [BBBY @ $10.59 $-0.93] -25 2/15/2019 (554) $-6,125 $2.45 $-1.98     $0.48 $-0.13 $4,938 80.6% $-1,188

    I think, in the OOP, we should buy back the 25 short 2021 $22.50 calls for 0.35 as they're not worth keeping on and we can roll the 25 2021 $15 calls ($1.30) to 25 2021 $10 calls at $2.70 for net $1.40 – well worth it to roll $5 down in strike.

    Scandals/Pirate – Trump seems untouchable and only 18 months left (unless he's re-elected) so I doubt they're going to "get him" at this point.

    Outlook/BDC – You would think that stuff matters but this market is trading like it doesn't.  Even now we're turning up again.


  13. BBBY -while the fundamental story for a turnaround may be compelling, the price chart since April has offered little hope. After nearly touching $20 on April 10th it has been mostly downhill since then. That is a wall of sellers waiting to get out as management try to work on their turnaround plan. Similar issue with LB and many other beaten up retail sticks (e.g. HBI, M). Everything that is known is in the price. Unfortunately the 'real' fundamental story can be a mystery to even the most punctilious analyst who only has the published information to go on. 


  14. BBBY/Winston – It is very hard to buy when a chart is that ugly but I'm sure you can think of hundreds of examples where very ugly charts turned into big winners over time.  That's because the charts (and the "wisdom" of the crowds") are meaningless vs the Fundamentals over time – it's just that most people won't give something the time it takes for the Fundamentals to assert themselves.  

    In the OOP, not counting out changes above, we began trading BBBY back in Sept of 2019, when the chart looked ugly enough for me to be interested and we sold puts and bought some calls.  The stock went lower and we bought back the short calls and then it popped back to $16.50 and guess what – we sold it!   Then, in Feb, we got back in with the new bull call spread (still the old short puts). 

    In the LTP, our original position was just 30 2021 $12.50 calls from 9/27 and we sold those in 2/15 for a $4,350 profit so the $4,600 current loss on the short 2021 $15 puts is a net loss of $250 on that position (so far) so we added a bull call spread and we're looking to improve on that as well.  

    I know it's fun to say something is a disaster but we're up on this trade and just doing what we normally do when a stock we like gets cheap – buying more and improving our strikes.   It's not a complicated strategy — the hardest thing to do is ignoring all the nervous Nellys that think a weak chart means "SOMEBODY" knows something.  

     

    • Tom Barkin, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, doesn't see the current levels of inflation or inflation expectations as a trigger for additional accommodation.
    • He appears to be neither a policy dove nor a hawk, and points that if the Fed made a big rate cut now, the result might significantly overshoot the Fed's 2% target.
    • "Small rate moves are unlikely to do much to move settled routines" of how companies set prices. "And large moves run the risk of targeting 2% but delivering 4%," he said in a speech at the Global Interdependence Center’s Rocky Mountain Economic SummitVictor, ID.
    • Part of the reason for his stance is that with inflation rates so low, the discussion turns to much smaller increments than have been used historically. "Firms don’t move their expectations a tenth of a point at a time, they move them in whole numbers. In that context, inflation expectations are pretty stable," he said.
    • "Looking at the big picture, inflation has been, and continues to be, low and steady and not the concern of businesses nor consumers—and that is the real goal," Barkin said.
    • Of course, he'll closely monitor economic data and measures of consumer and business confidence.
    •  "If confidence falters sharply, I would certainly make the case to my peers that we should pay attention to it and do what we can to support continued economic expansion," he concluded.
    • Barkin isn't a voting member of the FOMC this year; he's next scheduled to be a voting member in 2021

     

    • Digitimes reports precision stamping service provider China FineBlanking Technology plans to boost monthly shipments for Tesla (TSLA +0.6%) Model 3 relay components to 40K per month from a prior level of 20K a month. The increased output is due to start in August.
    • Sources indicate CFTC shipments to Tesla are expected to increase even more as production ramps up out of the company's Gigfactory 3 in Shanghai. Earlier this week, Tesla's Jerome Guillen also hinted at increased output out of the Fremont plant.
    • T-Mobile (TMUS -1.9%) and Sprint (S -3.6%) are sliding off a new Wall Street Journal report that merger talks have slowed, over conditions around the involvement of Dish Network (DISH+0.5%) in the deal.
    • Talks are ongoing, but the two wireless carriers are planning to extend their merger agreement beyond its July 29 deadline to buy more time, according to the report — a second extension of a deal that has dragged out more than a year.
    • Dish emerged as a favorite to acquire divested assets and in time develop a fourth rival to the combined company, Verizon (VZ -0.1%) and AT&T (T -0.4%). But a bone of contention rests on who could later buy into the Dish network, with T-Mobile parent Deutsche Telekom (DTEGY-0.5%) pushing for 5% limits on investors.
    • There's also discussion about how much traffic Dish could send over the new T-Mobile's network in the meantime.
    • Phillips 66 (PSX) says it should complete the shutdown of its 253K bbl/day Alliance, La., refinery this morning after local authorities ordered a mandatory evacuation of the area ahead of a storm that could reach hurricane strength by Friday.
    • The refinery sits next to the Mississippi River 39 miles south of New Orleans; it was last flooded by Hurricane Issac in 2012.
    • PBF Energy (PBF +0.4%) and Valero Energy (VLO +0.4%) do not plan to idle their Louisiana refineries, Reuters reports, citing sources familiar with plant operations.
    • Several offshore oil and gas platforms have been evacuated, and many have halted production, in preparation for the storm that has cut nearly a third of the region's oil production.
    • National Grid (NYSE:NGG) has sent notices to some customers warning that it cannot expand their gas service unless New York's state government clears the $1B Northeast Supply Enhancement Project proposed by Williams Co. (NYSE:WMB)
    • The notices encourage ratepayers to sign a pre-written letter in support of the pipeline expansion to be automatically sent to New York's Gov. Cuomo.
    • "The fact that National Grid is doing this on the basis of pure necessity – that the company genuinely needs access to natural gas supply – is a really powerful" case for the project, says Katie Bays of the Sandhill Strategy consulting firm.
    • Both National Grid and Consolidated Edison have stopped accepting new applications for service in parts of their New York territories because of a shortage of pipeline space.
    • Goldman Sachs thinks big-box retailers are poised to see years of e-commerce investments starts to juice earnings.
    • "We are at an inflection point for several companies where we are starting to see a resumption of operating income dollar growth; demonstrating not only the strong top line execution but also a point of leveraging years of investment to become true omni-channel retailers," writes Goldman analyst Kate McShane.
    • McShane also observes the benefit for the survivors of the wave of bankruptcies of once-popular retail chains.
    • Target (NYSE:TGT) is Goldman's top pick in retail, but the firm's list of recommended retail stocks includes Walmart (NYSE:WMT), Costco (NASDAQ:COST), Home Depot (NYSE:HD), Lowe's (NYSE:LOW), Tractor Supply (NASDAQ:TSCO) and an "out-of-consensus" pick with Williams-Sonoma (NYSE:WSM).
    • Shares of Target are up 0.52% premarket to $86.30.
    • Street expectations for Apple's (NASDAQ:AAPL) iPhone in H2 could prove overly optimistic, according to Loop Capital.
    • The firm expects 182M iPhone unit sales in 2019 with an ASP of $733. Consensus estimates have 185M and $754, respectively.
    • Loop's unit work "suggests in the last week or so, build plans for the new upcoming iPhone XI models have been reduced by 15%-20%," which "suggests potential December overall iPhone unit shipments could be moving to the lower end of our 60-65M unit range."
    • Apple is expected to report Q3 results on July 30.
    • AAPL shares are up 0.4% pre-market to $203.97.
    • Apple has an Outperform average Sell Side rating.

    Tesla: Don't Be Fooled By 'Record' Deliveries 

    • Fastenal (NASDAQ:FAST): Q2 GAAP EPS of $0.36 misses by $0.01.
    • Revenue of $1.37B (+7.9% Y/Y) misses by $10M.
    • Diluted net earnings per share were $0.36 vs. $0.37 during the first quarter of 2018, a decrease of 3.2%.
    • "While general economic activity remained positive, we did see slowing in the second quarter of 2019 relative to activity levels experienced in the first quarter of 2019," the company wrote in a press release.
    • Daily sales of fastener products grew 5.5%. Sales of non-fastener products represented 65.5% of sales and grew 9.5% on a daily basis.
    • Signed 5,439 industrial vending devices, resulting in an installed device count of 85,871, an increase of 12.9% over June 30, 2018.
    • Fastenal also signed 94 new Onsite locations in Q1, resulting in 1,026 active sites on June 30, and representing an increase of 34.8% from a year ago.
    • FAST -6.2% premarket
    • Q2 results
    • The debt limit has been far from the front page as lawmakers debate the treatment of migrants at the border and battle over nominations and spending bills, but that may be changing.
    • The Treasury Department is now taking steps known as "extraordinary measures" to prevent the government from going over its borrowing limit, with senators growing anxious that they might have to vote to raise the nation’s debt ceiling in a matter of weeks given new estimates that the government could hit its borrowing limit earlier than expected.
    • Japan’s threat of export controls on South Korean chipmakers risks "large unintended consequences" on the technology supply chain, warned Shaun Roache, chief Asia-Pacific economist at S&P Global Ratings.
    • As a trade row between the East Asian neighbors grows, South Korea’s foreign minister toldU.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo that Japan’s export curbs against Seoul are "undesirable."
    • Japan tightened curbs last week on exports of three materials crucial for smartphone displays and chips, saying trust with South Korea had been broken in a dispute with Seoul over South Koreans forced to work for Japanese firms during WWII.
    • Are 10% moves for Bitcoin (BTC-USD) still newsworthy? Probably not, but uncertainty in the crypto space definitely made headlines after Jerome Powell said Facebook's Libra offering should "not go forward" without addressing concerns.
    • Those include privacy, money laundering, consumer protection and financial stability, the Fed Chair declared during his semi-annual testimony before the House Financial Services Committee.
    • The crypto shed close to $1500 to the mid-$11K level following the comments, which echoed a growing chorus of doubts about Libra from authorities around the world.
    • U.S. lawmakers weighed reforming pot laws in what advocates called a "historic” hearing on Wednesday, though there didn't appear to be a clear consensus approach, such as giving states the right for legalization, removing weed from schedule 1 of the Controlled Substances Act, or promoting social and racial equity in marijuana laws.
    • "Marijuana decriminalization may be one of the very few issues upon which bipartisan agreement can still be reached in this session," said Rep. Tom McClintock, R-Calif., adding "it ought to be crystal clear to everyone that our laws have not accomplished their goals."
    • Eleven states have already legalized adult recreational use and a majority of Americans support legalization.

  15. BBBY – this is why I wanted to only pay $2.85 to be $4 in the money. But I think the drop is an overreaction. Maybe people are selling to buy a momo stock. Whatever. I’m sticking with my spreads. 


  16. Dollar finally found a bottom, putting pressure on the indexes.  Got a quick $250 this time on /ES  but /YM is the fresh horse now, just crossing under 27,000 for a great short with tight stops above.


  17. Is 27000 a good place to short the Dow? Looks like everything else has turned red for the day. 


  18. Never mind. You anticipated me. 


  19. Latest fun selfie tweet from our Ego in Chief

    "so great looking and smart, a true Stable Genius! "


  20. Comment content omitted because it is too long.


  21. Wow, at this point he's got to just be messing with us – he can't be serious talking about himself like that:

    1. …or a very nervous and skinny version of Pocahontas (1/1024th), as your President, rather than what you have now, so great looking and smart, a true Stable Genius! Sorry to say that even Social Media would be driven out of business along with, and finally, the Fake News Media!

    2.  

      …years, or maybe 10 or 14 (just kidding), they will quickly go out of business for lack of credibility, or approval, from the public. That’s why they will all be Endorsing me at some point, one way or the other. Could you imagine having Sleepy Joe Biden, or Alfred E. Newman…

    3.  

      …The Fake News is not as important, or as powerful, as Social Media. They have lost tremendous credibility since that day in November, 2016, that I came down the escalator with the person who was to become your future First Lady. When I ultimately leave office in six…

    4.  

      A big subject today at the White House Social Media Summit will be the tremendous dishonesty, bias, discrimination and suppression practiced by certain companies. We will not let them get away with it much longer. The Fake News Media will also be there, but for a limited period..

    Nas turned ugly, down 30 points.  

    BBBY back to $11 baby!


  22. We knew going in that Trump had mislaid a significant number of his marbles but it seems today he finally wrote them off as a total loss. I would wager quite a lot of money against him that the endorsements he’s looking for will not be coming regardless of any possible disarray amongst the democrat candidates. 


  23. Well it's a magical market, we keep recovering into the close, no matter what.  

    • Skechers (SKX +2.2%) gains after OTR Global lifts the retailer to a Positive rating after having it slotted previously at Mixed.
    • The consensus sell-side rating on SKX from the 12 firms covering the stock stands at Outperform.
    • Apple's (AAPL -0.3%) high-end iPhones that Foxconn assembles in India will hit regional stores in August, according to Reuters sources.
    • Some approvals are pending but the releases could include the iPhone XR and XS devices.
    • Assembling those premium models locally saves Apple on high taxes on the import of fully-assembled phones, and Apple meets local sourcing requirements for operating its own retail stores in the area.
    • Apple currently holds about 1% of the Indian smartphone market due to its higher pricing.
    • Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, speaking to reporters after a speech in Atlanta, expresses some skepticism about the need the cut interest rates later this month.
    • Via Bloomberg's Steve Matthew.
    • From the employment side of things, the economy is performing well and some measures of inflation are close to the central bank's 2% target.
    • “The numbers I think are not as bleak as some others might suggest. For me, in terms of performing on our dual mandate, the aggregate numbers look pretty good," he said.
    • Still, "the risks are growing and we have to continue to monitor that," he added.
    • Bostic isn't a voting member of the monetary policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee this year.
    • Freeport McMoRan (FCX +1.4%) edges higher after Deutsche Bank upgrades shares to Buyfrom Hold with a $13.50 price target, raised from $12.50, as analyst Chris Terry is positive on copper in H2 2019 and believes underground development at the Grasberg mine is making "encouraging" progress.
    • But Terry downgrades Alcoa (AA -0.8%) to Hold from Buy with a $23 price target, cut from $35, saying he no longer foresees a reduction in the company's legacy liabilities from pension and debt, an improvement in aluminum chain pricing or rising free cash flow.
    • FCX's average Sell Side Rating is Hold, its Seeking Alpha Authors' Rating is Bullish, and its Quant Rating is Neutral.
    • For AA, the average Sell Side Rating is Outperform, its Seeking Alpha Authors' Rating is Neutral, and its Quant Rating is Bearish.
    • via Amanda Chicago Lewis at the WSJ
    • "Within five to 10 years, we’re going to see cannabis in every ambulance: for stroke, for heart attack, for all kinds of things," says Alon Blatt of NiaMedic Healthcare & Research Services. California's NiaMedic is of particular interest in that it caters to seniors who generally want to know: "Can marijuana help?"
    • The short answer is "yes," says Blatt. "The constant pain, the arthritis, the fatigue, the trouble sleeping, the anxiety—we see cannabis help with all of these.”
    • From 2006 to 2013 the percentage of those over 65 using cannabis rose to 3% from 0.4%.
    • Blatt: "Right now, we’re sitting on a jet engine, but we’re still on the runway going 10 miles an hour.”
    • Bank of America Merrill Lynch defends Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY -4.8%) following the retailer's bruising Q2 earnings drop.
    • The firm says it continues to see BBBY as an underappreciated multiyear ESP growth story as it reiterates a Buy rating and $25 price objective.
    • BAML also sees some potential catalysts as share price drivers, including the announcement of a new permanent CEO, a potential sale of non-core assets and higher buybacks.
    • The Seeking Alpha Quant Rating on BBBY is Neutral.
    • Sprint (S -3.2%) has lit up its 5G network in Chicago.
    • That marks the fifth of nine planned markets to first receive the company's True Mobile 5G. The service is now available in parts of Atlanta, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston and Kansas City.
    • The Chicago addition will offer service to about 700,000 people; overall, the nine planned markets (to include Los Angeles, New York City, Phoenix and Washington, D.C.) will cover 2,100 square miles and 11M people total.
    • Demand for U.S. thermal coal (NYSEARCA:KOL) will "erode significantly" by 2030 as total use for U.S. power generation could fall to as little as 11% based on scheduled and likely retirements, according to a new report from Moody's.
    • Mines in the Powder River Basin are seen as the hardest hit as thermal coal generation declines; the operations are run by companies that have all gone through or are undergoing bankruptcy restructuring, such as Cloud Peak Energy (NYSE:CLD), Westmoreland Coal (NASDAQ:WLB), Arch Coal (NYSE:ARCH) and Peabody Energy (NYSE:BTU).
    • Moody's believes natural gas generation will replace most of the thermal coal generating capacity set for retirement, as the U.S. coal industry shrinks and becomes more reliant on export markets.

  24. Gee Phil-you might be right but every time he opens his mouth it just spews more and more garbage. I  truly worry about the mentality of this country that they think this is OK? This is how an ego maniac is supposed to act as commander in looney town?. I'm sticking to hope, but no one mentions his name to me ever!! I guess busting out laughing hysterically makes the righties uncomfortable?


  25. Phil – the point I was trying to make is that trading a stock (BBBY is just an example) over an extended period of time when the price action is against you is challenging. I think you got a bit mixed up on your dates, but BBBY was in several of the portfolios from January 2018, and it is a great example of managing a trade and trying to keep ahead of the downdraft. It showed just how difficult it is, and sometimes it doesn't work out and losses just have to be accepted and move on.


  26. bynd is up over 10 bucks today AGAIN!


  27. Trump/Pirate – Just grin and bear it at this point.  The thing that really worries me is that we knew Bush II was a disaster long before he got re-elected but we did it anyway so yes, the American people are that dumb.

    Challenging/Winston – Well, yes it's challenging but if we scale in properly then a 50% drop in the price of a stock is more of an opportunity than anything else.  And you are right, the filter was only showing 2019 transactions for BBBY, we had some in Jan 2018 too.  

    BBBY
    25 BBBY 2021 15-JAN 22.50 CALL SC $ 1,350.00 2/15/2019 $ 6,125.00   146 $ 4,775.00 78.0 %
    25 BBBY 2021 15-JAN 15.00 CALL LC $ 12,125.00 2/15/2019 $ 3,300.00   146 $ -8,825.00 -72.8 %
    20 BBBY 2021 15-JAN 10.00 CALL LC $ 6,700.00 12/26/2018 $ 15,500.00 2/15/2019 51 $ 8,800.00 131.3 %
    5 BBBY 2021 15-JAN 15.00 PUT SP $ 3,025.00 9/27/2018 $ 2,000.00   287 $ -1,025.00 -51.3 %
    20 BBBY 2021 15-JAN 12.50 CALL LC $ 8,800.00 10/1/2018 $ 5,340.00 12/26/2018 86 $ -3,460.00 -39.3 %
    20 BBBY 2019 18-JAN 20.00 CALL SC $ 0.00 9/26/2018 $ 3,000.00 1/18/2019 114 $ 3,000.00 100 %
    20 BBBY 2020 17-JAN 15.00 CALL LC $ 9,600.00 8/29/2018 $ 5,600.00 9/27/2018 29 $ -4,000.00 -41.7 %
    5 BBBY 2020 17-JAN 17.50 PUT SP $ 2,525.00 1/8/2018 $ 1,400.00 10/3/2018 268 $ -1,125.00 -80.4 %
    10 BBBY 2020 17-JAN 25.00 CALL SC $ 1,350.00 1/9/2018 $ 3,500.00 8/22/2018 225 $ 2,150.00 61.4 %
    10 BBBY 2020 17-JAN 17.50 CALL LC $ 6,450.00 1/8/2018 $ 4,000.00 8/22/2018 226 $ -2,450.00 -38.0 %
    Total Gain/Loss for BBBY $ -2,160.00 -4.2 %

    The point is though, that we began with 5 short puts and a 10-unit bull call spread at $17.50 and now we spent $2,160 more but we've got 25 of the $15 calls (now rolled to the $10s).  In the last cycle, we had 20 of the $10 calls and eventually made $8,800 on them, now we're in a down cycle and we're buying – it's just working the channel.

    Huge pop into the close – again.  3,004.50 on /ES.



  28. Good morning! 

    Not much going on at the moment but that Japan/SoKo trade dispute comes to a head on Monday and Trump is rounding up immigrants this weekend and Europe is taxing Tech Companies so I'm liking our SQQQ hedges over the weekend.  Apparently being a citizen, or even being white, doesn't stop you from being harassed if you get on Trump's naughty list:

    ICE makes mistakes. American citizens can get caught in its maw — even white Americans. According to the Cato Institute, from 2006 to 2017 ICE wrongfully detained more than 3,500 U.S. citizens in Texas alone. Even in Rhode Island, ICE issued 462 detainers for people listed as U.S. citizens over a 10-year period, according to the A.C.L.U. From 2017 to 2019, A.C.L.U. data showed that law enforcement detained 420 citizens in Ms. Nuetzi’s state of Florida, at ICE’s request. Eighty-three of those requests have been canceled, and the people released. The rest remain in detention, waiting for ICE, according to the A.C.L.U. report. Even though ICE detainers should lapse after 48 hours, local law enforcement often continues to hold people until the agency gets around to checking them.

    Nearly a year after she stepped into the motor vehicle agency, Ms. Nuetzi finally got the State Department to review her case, giving her 90 days to compile and send in documentation — including her parents’ marriage license, a letter from her parents and baptism records from when she was 9. Her mother had to physically obtain another copy of her own birth certificate from her hometown in Kansas. The National Passport Center looked up a census dating back to the 1940s, showing that her grandparents were also born in the U.S.

    The people caught up in ICE’s looming roundups won’t have the three months Ms. Nuetzi had.

    These raids are meant to happen quickly, as agents work off old lists and files, to go into the homes of those who failed to make a court appearance or had old documentation regarding deportation from years past. These raids are meant to target those with children, increasing the risk of separating families, as well. The raids won’t leave room for the meticulous detail work required for the burden of proof. They don’t allow time for people to do the exhaustive groundwork to prove something that, to them, has always been true — that they are supposed to be here.

    When they kick at your front door
    How you gonna come?
    With your hands on your head
    Or on the trigger of your gun
    When the law break in
    How you gonna go?
    Shot down on the pavement
    Or waiting on death row – Clash


  29. Arrested in your own home despite being a citizen. I have to admit, this new brand of “freedom” looks dodgy to a foreigner. Not that the U.K. is much better with our recent scandals.