Archive for 2019

Bitcoin, How do they get those $50k forecasts?

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

bitcoin-how-do-they-get-those-50k-forecastsPopular securities are controlled by long term price channels.



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Investing Quote…



..”After exhaustive researches and investigations of the known sciences, I discovered that the Law of Vibration enabled me to accurately determine the exact points to which stocks or commodities should rise and fall within a given time. The working out of this law determines the cause and predicts the effect long before the Street is aware either.”..



William D Gann





…”This [Federal Reserve Act] establishes the most gigantic trust on earth. When the President Woodrow Wilson signs this bill, the invisible government of the monetary power will be legalized….the worst legislative crime of the ages is perpetrated by this banking and currency bill.”…



Charles August Lindbergh Snr





..”October: This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks. The others are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August and February.”..



Mark Twain





..”If you have trouble imagining a 20% loss in the stock market, you shouldn’t be in stocks”..



John (Jack) Bogle





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Bruce Kovner











Did China Just Hint At A New “Shanghai Accord”?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

There were a variety of catalysts behind Friday's "Jumbo"-sized, 747-point surge in the Dow, among which renewed trade talk optimism, a stronger than expected Chinese services PMI, a blockbuster jobs report, and of course Chairman Powell's dovish reversal from his hawkish Dec 19 FOMC press conference, in which he not only suggested that the Fed will be more "patient" with future rate hikes and will "listen to markets" as inflation appears to be easing off, but also the Fed's balance sheet reduction is no longer purely on autopilot and may be adjusted depending on the market.

However, one key catalyst that was generally ignored in recent days, and which may have sparked new life in the market's animal spirits, came not out of the Marriner Eccles building but from China, and not just the RRR cut which China announced on Friday.

But first a few words on the required reserve ratio cut: As a reminder, after the market closed, the PBOC announced a 1% cut in RRR in January, split evenly on Jan 15 and Jan 25. While expectations were high for such an event, it was not a major surprise to the market, especially since a significant part of the net total interbank liquidity injection of RMB 800bn will go to replace maturing MLF in Q1, while much of the balance will offset the PBOC's ongoing liquidity drains via reverse repo. 

The central bank also emphasizes that the RRR cut is a way to mitigate seasonal spikes in liquidity demand ahead of the Chinese New Year (falling on February 5th this year), and that monetary policy remains prudent.

As a result, as Goldman notes, "the targeted measures are therefore quantitatively meaningful, but not particularly sizable" especially since the lingering risk that large-scale targeted monetary support could potentially introduce distortions in the system (e.g., under-reporting of loan size) is recognized by the authorities.

So while the RRR cut may have a transitory impact at best on the overall economy – the PBOC said the RRR cut would help the real economy, particularly small/private enterprises – another, perhaps far more important even took place in late December, when the central bank indicated a critical shift in the official monetary policy description at the December Central Economic Work…
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Huawei Punishes Workers For Embarassing Tweet From An iPhone

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

China’s Huawei Technologies has reprimanded two employees for an embarrassing, New Year’s Eve tweet on the smartphone maker’s official Twitter account using an iPhone, social media sleuths noticed on Dec. 31. Huawei, whose smartphones compete with Apple’s iPhone and which has become the focal point of an ongoing feud between the US and China over “technology transfer”, on New Year’s Eve posted a message to followers saying “Happy #2019″ in a tweet marked sent “via Twitter for iPhone.”

MKBHD first detected Huawei’s New Year’s Eve mistake.

That was fast pic.twitter.com/y6k0FJF7Gq

— Marques Brownlee (@MKBHD) January 1, 2019

The tweet was immediately removed but screenshots of the mistake circulated across social media platforms.

Typically, this would be comical, but yet – not newsworthy. Though here, the recent arrest of a Huawei executive has been a dangerous escalation of President Trump’s economic war with China

“Late last year, Huawei CFO Meng Wanzhou was arrested and detained in a Canadian jail for breaching US sanctions on Iran. This sparked even greater heat between the two tech giants, with companies in China going so far to boycott Apple. Firms have even threatened employees with termination for iPhone use, with most offering subnational discounts on Huawei phones to encourage employees to pick up Huawei devices,” said 9to5Mac.

In an internal Huawei memo dated Jan. 03 seen by Reuters, corporate senior vice-president and director of the board Chen Lifang said, “the incident caused damage to the Huawei brand.”

The memo said the mistake occurred when outsourced social media marketing firm Sapient experienced “VPN problems” with a computer so used an iPhone with a roaming SIM card to send the tweet. Twitter, like many social media platforms, is blocked in China, where the internet is heavily censored. For Sapient to gain access, the social media managers had to use a virtual private network (VPN) connection.

Huawei, which surpassed Apple as the world’s second-largest smartphone manufacturer, declined to comment on the situation when Reuters reached out.

The memo also said the error exposed procedural non-compliance and management oversight issues. It said two employees have been punished and demoted by one rank and their monthly salaries reduced by 5,000 yuan ($728.27). The pay grade of one of its employees, Huawei’s digital marketing director, will stay frozen for at least one year.

Reuters said this is not the first time an Apple smartphone has…
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King Dollar?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Authored by Kuppy via AdventuresInCapitalism.com,

From time to time, the investment world takes something as accepted wisdom and just runs with it.

For whatever reason, investors seem convinced that the US Dollar is destined to go higher. I’ve heard lots of smart opinions why; interest rate differentials, GDP growth rate differentials, “The Dollar Milkshake Theory,” “Prettiest Body in the Morgue” and the “Fear Trade.”

Over the past two years, we have seen the most powerful set of circumstances for a sustained dollar rally that we have seen in many years, including:

  • interest rate differentials,

  • flight capital from China,

  • substantial capital repatriation due to new tax laws,

  • faster US GDP growth rates,

  • QT vs. QE globally,

  • tariffs making US products more attractive to purchasers,

  • net US oil imports collapsing, etc.

Pretty much everything that could go right for the dollar has gone right for the Dollar, meanwhile, the dollar has been range-bound.

While I’m an investor, I’m always a trader first. If good news doesn’t make something go up, bad news may make it go down.

I have always believed that during volatile days, we get to see the true nature of the markets as leveraged risk positions unwind. The last few weeks have seen a number of big down days—yet the dollar has not caught a bid. You could almost say that no one cares for Dollars—this is quite a difference from prior periods with big down days. Could the Dollar actually be topping out?

I suspect that as we get into 2019, we’ll learn that many of the most powerful underlying trends supporting the Dollar will become less supportive. From the Fed putting a pause into rate increases to a slowdown of economic growth as interest rates take their bite; the Dollar’s supports are slowly being removed. I am not the type to make bold bets on currencies—I own a basket and the Dollar is one of many currencies I own. However,…
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Sears Prepares For Liquidation As Lampert’s 11th Hour Bid Fails

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Sears Holdings Corp is readying plans for a liquidation after Chairman Eddie Lampert’s bid to pull approximately 425 stores out of bankruptcy was rejected, according to Bloomberg, citing people familiar with the matter. 

Lampert offered a $4.6 billion package backed by lenders Bank of America and Citigroup, as well as a new participant in the deal – Royal Bank of Canada. The three institutions offered to provide a $950 million basset-backed loan and $350 million revolving line of credit to back Lampert’s bid, which would secure the jobs of roughly 50,000 workers of the company’s $68,000. 

According to Bloomberg‘s sources, there were gaps in Lampert’s financing package and the plan would not have provided enough cash to cover bankruptcy-related costs. It also undervalued inventory and other assets compared to what liquidators were promising to pay. 

Part of Lampert’s bid relied on the forgiveness of $1.3 billion of Sears debt held by his hedge fund, ESL Investments Inc.

The retailer started laying the groundwork for a liquidation after meetings Friday in which its advisers weighed the merits of a $4.4 billion bid by Lampert’s hedge fund to buy Sears as a going concern, said the people, who asked not to be identified because the discussions are private. If the 125-year-old retailer does die in bankruptcy — like Toys “R” Us in 2018, and Borders Group Inc. in 2011 — it would mark the largest fatality yet in the retail apocalypse prompted by a shift to online shopping. -Bloomberg

Unfortunately for Eddie, much of his bid relied on him getting ownership of the reorganized business – however the validity of his debt has been called into question after several creditors challenged ESL, while no cash backstop was provided in case this fell through. 

ESL claims its liens are valid after they extended over $2.4 billion of secured financing to keep Sears’ head above water. 

Last chance?

While Lampert’s bid was rejected, ESL still has until a Tuesday status hearing to amend the package with last minute improvements. Lampert has also floated a backup plan in which ESL would buy some of Sears’ components – including real estate and intellectual property such as the brand itself. 

Sears closed about 140 stores back in October when it initially filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection with


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Mauldin: 2019 – The Year Of Living Dangerously

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Authored by John Mauldin via MauldinEconomics.com,

Double, double, toil and trouble;

Fire burn and cauldron bubble.

…By the pricking of my thumbs,

Something wicked this way comes.

- William Shakespeare, Macbeth, Act IV, Scene I, 1606

In a nutshell, I expect to spend this year Living Dangerously. Yes, I’m thinking of the 1982 film starring a very youthful Mel Gibson and Sigourney Weaver, based on an earlier Christopher Koch novel. It has an Asian setting and features corrupt politics, neophyte journalists, international intrigue plus a gender-bending Chinese dwarf. If you aren’t sure how all those fit together, then welcome to 2019. We are all stuck in this craziness and can only make the best of it.

Nonetheless, having an outlook still helps. We’re all blasted with too much information and it’s easy to get overwhelmed. I find that having a framework helps organize my thoughts. Of course you have to be flexible and modify the framework when it no longer fits (if the facts change, etc.). But that’s better than floating aimlessly, at least to me.

Another thing that can help is the Mauldin Economics Alpha Society, which is open to new members for a few more days. The Alpha Society is an exclusive “lifetime pass” that gives you all our premium research services and many other benefits for as long as we publish them.

For example, Alpha Society members get to read Over My Shoulder, in which I share some of the fascinating expert knowledge that hits my inbox each week, along with a quick summary to save you time. Recently we sent material from James Montier, Art Cashin, Ed Yardeni, Louis Gave, Peter Boockvar, and more.

That’s just the start. I highly suggest you go here and read about the other valuable Alpha Society benefits. I think you’ll be impressed.

Now, let’s look ahead to 2019.

Dangerous Addiction

After doing this so many times, I think one of the best approaches is to simply ask, “What could go wrong?” Other things being equal, a growing population and increasing productivity will naturally produce a growing economy. But of course…
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Brazil’s Bolsonaro Sends In Troops To Eradicate Criminal Gangs Amid Spike In Violence

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro has sent 300 soldiers to the northern city of Fortaleza with orders to stop a surge in criminal attacks targeting banks, buses and shops, according to France24

By the end of the weekend, 300 soldiers will be patrolling that city and other towns in Ceara state in a bid to halt the rampage, national public security secretary Guilherme Teophilo said, according to government news agency Agencia Brasil.

The intervention is the first test of new President Jair Bolsonaro's strict law-and-order platform since he took office last Tuesday.

His justice minister ordered the deployment after concluding that Ceara police were overwhelmed. Some 50 suspects have been arrested. -France24

The gangs attacking Fortaleza have been seen on security footage torching gas stations, while dozens of attacks were registered this week as frightened residents stay indoors – leaving the main roads deserted. 

In one of the attacks, explosives left a road supporting pillar badly damaged in the town of Caucaia, just west of Fortaleza. 

While the exact cause of the surge in violence is unknown, intelligence reports published by Brazilian media have pointed to gangs revolting against tough new rules recently instituted throughout the state's prisons, which include blocking cell phone signals and ending the separation of inmates based on gang affiliation. 

To protest the measures, two gangs have set aside their rivalry to join forces against the government according to G1 News, citing security officials. 

Earlier this month, Bolsonaro vowed to crack down on his country's out-of-control crime by offering immunity to soldiers and police using lethal force, while also easing gun laws with a decree which would make it much easier for…
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The New Congress And The Rolling Catastrophe Of The US Body Politic

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Authored by Roger Harris via Counterpunch.org,

Bathed in the soothing waters of the Blue Wave, such that it was, a new US Congress was baptized on January 3rd. But what portends when “Mad Dog” Mattis, arch racist Jeff Sessions, and deep state spooks are canonized by self-identified liberals and leftists as bulwarks against fascism? When all mainstream “opposition” politics can be reduced to a single issue: Trump. And when the midterm elections ignored deepening impoverishment at home, endless wars abroad, and climate calamity – let alone the tax cut for the super-rich – and instead focused on the “threat” posed by (take your pick) immigrants or the Russians.

For the first time ever, the Gallup poll reported that most Democrats favor socialism to capitalism. And for good reason: as the Occupy movement proclaimed, “the system isn’t broken, its fixed.” An observer from the UK quipped, if the midterm elections would have changed anything, they would not have been allowed.

The American body politic is in deep malaise with the current administration. But Trump is the symptom, not the disease, which is neoliberal rule. The conditions that allowed the ascendency of Trump were the result of the neoliberal policies of Obama/Bush and of their predecessors. Trump does not so much represent a break or reversal of Obama era policies. Rather, we are suffering a continuation and intensification of those policies as the body politic lurches to the right.

The Leadup to the New Congress

The good news for US democracy was the largest voter turnout in half a century for the congressional mid-term elections. For the 66% of the US population under 50 years, it was the highest in their lifetime. The more sobering news is that even with this record turnout, the majority of eligible voters didn’t vote. While the pool of eligible votersis diminished by felony disenfranchisement and other laws and practices depending on the state.

Beyond the microcosm of the corporate two-party system, there is a universe out there and even issues that transcend one’s affection or distaste for Trump. What if we had an electoral system like Cuba, where the vast majority of eligible voters are motived to participate?

A glimpse of the smoldering discontent within the US electorate was seen in the vaguely insurgent candidacies in 2016 of Trump, with his fauxpopulist…
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World’s Largest Hedge Fund Manager Sees Dollar Losing Reserve Currency Status

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

With the end of 2018 marking the 40th anniversary of China opening up & reforming (and with an increasingly loud group of market participants questioning the foundations of China’s economic miracle – and more importantly, it's future), Bridgewater founder Ray Dalio believes now is a good time to reflect on China’s last 40 years.

"Since I have been fortunate to have experienced 34 years of this 40 years in an up close and intimate way, and since I study what makes countries succeed and fail, I have some experiences and thoughts to share…"

The table below shows just a few representative statistics.

These results speak for themselves, but Dalio adds:

"To have such rates of improvements in so many areas and for so many people has made it the greatest economic miracle ever."

And from what Dalio has seen, he believes that the very impressive results that the Chinese leadership and the Chinese people produced came about primarily because of the powerful combination of

a) China’s opening up and reforming following an extended period of isolation that led to a fast catching up (especially in the coastal regions of China) with the advanced developed world, and

b) the power of the Chinese culture and it’ related ways of operating.

Crucially, the billionaire hedge fund manager points out that, if you haven’t spent time in China, you need to get any stereotypes you might have out of your mind because it’s not how it was. This is not your father’s communism. It is “socialism with Chinese characteristics” that has been significantly and very effectively reformed, which has made it much more vital, creative, and economically free.

Dalio's 'romantic' view of a paternal China is definitely not the mainstream narrative:

"From my experiences and from what I am told by Chinese who should know, I believe Chinese leadership seeks to run the country the way they believe a good family should be run, from the top down, maintaining high standards of behavior, putting the collective interest ahead of any individual interest, with each


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Is This Downturn A Repeat Of 2008?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via PeakProsperity.com,

Crashes differ, so be cautious about your assumptions…

Even people who don't follow the stock market closely are aware that the global economy is weakening and appears to be heading into recession.

For those who track the stock market, the signs are ominous: the U.S. was the last major market to notch gains this year and in October the U.S. market followed the rest of the global markets into an extended slide which has yet to end.

Just as sobering, key sectors such as oil, banking and utilities have crashed with alarming ferocity, reaching oversold levels last seen in 2008 as the global financial system was melting down.

These sectors crashing sends an unmistakable signal: the global economy is heading into a potentially severe recession and assets will not be rising in value in a recessionary environment. So better to sell risk-assets like stocks now rather than later, and rotate the money into safe assets such as Treasury bonds.

And indeed, households now own more Treasuries than the Federal Reserve--a remarkable shift in risk appetite.

Many other indicators of recession are in the news: auto and home sales and global trade are all slumping.

Are we in a repeat of the global financial meltdown and recession of 2008-09? The sharp drop in equities is certainly reminiscent of 2008. Indeed, the December decline is the worst in a decade. Or are we entering a different kind of recession, the equivalent of uncharted waters?

And if we are entering a recession, what can central banks and governments do to ease the financial pain and damage? We can’t be sure of much, but we can be relatively confident central banks and states will respond to the cries to “do something.”  This poses two questions: what actions can central banks/states take, and will those policies work or will they backfire and make the recession worse?

A good place to start is to revisit the 2008 crisis and attempt to understand its sources and how central bank policies reversed what appeared to be a snowballing collapse of global finance-- a meltdown that would have sent the global economy
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Zero Hedge

Plunge Protection Team Arrives: Lifts Stocks & Currencies, Slams Gold

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Update (2245ET): China's Vice Premier Liu told online news provider Cailian that China has enough macro-economic policy tools to ensure sound economic fundamentals and suddenly Yuan and USDJPY spikes, US equity futures surge, and gold slides...

Right on cue...US equity futures have almost erased their losses...

Yuan spikes and USDJPY has erased all of its...



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Phil's Favorites

S&P 500 Index Must Bounce Here Or Hold On Tight!

Courtesy of Technical Traders

The fragility of the markets can not be underestimated at this time. Our July predictions regarding a market top and an August 19...



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The Technical Traders

S&P 500 Index Must Bounce Here Or Hold On Tight!

Courtesy of Technical Traders

The fragility of the markets can not be underestimated at this time. Our July predictions regarding a market top and an August 19...



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Biotech

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

Courtesy of  , Visual Capitalist

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

As evidence of cannabis’ many benefits mounts, so does the interest from the global pharmaceutical industry, known as Big Pharma. The entrance of such behemoths will radically transform the cannabis industry—once heavily stigmatized, it is now a potentially game-changing source of growth for countless co...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Bearish Divergences Similar To 2000 & 2007 In Play Again!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Does history at important junctures ever repeat itself exactly? Nope

Do look-alike patterns take place at important price points? Yup

This chart looks at the S&P 500 over the past 20-years.

In 2000 and 2007 bearish momentum divergences took place months ahead of the actual peak in stocks.

Currently, momentum has created a bearish divergence to the S&P 500 for the past 20-months, as the seems to have stopped on a dime at its 261% Fibonacci extension level of the 2007 highs/2009 lows.

Joe Friday Just The Fact Ma’am; A negative sign for the S&P 500 with the divergence in play, would take place if support b...



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Insider Scoop

Earnings Scheduled For August 22, 2019

Courtesy of Benzinga

Companies Reporting Before The Bell
  • Hormel Foods Corporation (NYSE: HRL) is estimated to report quarterly earnings at $0.36 per share on revenue of $2.29 billion.
  • BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: BJ) is projected to report quarterly earnings at $0.37 per share on revenue of $3.38 billion.
  • DICK'S Sporting Good...


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Chart School

Gold Gann Angle Update

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Everything awesome? Gold over $1500. Central banks are printing money to generate fake demand. Germany issues first ever 30 year bond with negative interest rate. Crazy times!

Even Australia and New Zealand and considering negative interest rates and printing money, you know a bunch of lowly populated islands in the South Pacific with no aircraft carriers or nuclear weapons. They will need to do this to suppress their currency as they are export nations, as they need foreign currency to pay for foreign loans. But what is next, maybe Fiji will start printing their dollar. 

Now for a laugh, this Jason Pollock sold for more than $32M in 2012. 
 


 

Ok, now call ...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Watch Out Bears! Fed POMO Is Back!

Courtesy of Lee Adler

That’s right. The Fed is doing POMO again.  POMO means Permanent Open Market Operations. It’s a fancy way of saying that the Fed is buying Treasuries, pumping money into the financial markets.

Over the past 6 days, the Fed has bought $8.6 billion in T-bills and coupons. These are the first regular Fed POMO Treasury operations since the Fed ended outright QE in 2014.

Who is the Fed buying those Treasuries from?

The Primary Dealers. Who are the Primary Dealers?  I’ll let the New York Fed tell you:

Primary dealers are trading counterparties of the New York Fed in its implementation of monetary policy. They are also expected to make markets for the New York Fed on behalf of its official accountholders as needed, and to bid on a ...



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Digital Currencies

New Zealand Becomes 1st Country To Legalize Payment Of Salaries In Crypto

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have been on a persistent upswing this year, but they're still pretty volatile. But during a time when even some of the most developed economies in the word are watching their currencies bounce around like the Argentine peso (just take a look at a six-month chart for GBPUSD), New Zealand has decided to take the plunge and become the first country to legalize payment in bitcoin, the FT reports.

The ruling by New Zealand’s tax authority allows salaries and wages to b...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

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Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

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