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Thursday, October 6, 2022

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Super Tuesday – G7 Fails to Guarantee Free Money

What the Hell were people expecting?

The markets rallied insanely yesterday on expectations of a 50-point rate cut along with coordinated cuts around the World and tax cuts and Santa Clause, etc., etc. – total idiocy.  This morning the futures are turning down already as the G7 "Emergency Meeting" has not actually come up with any actual emergency measures – it's more like one of those "hopes and prayers" messages after a school shooting – good luck guys!  

 Of course the G7 doesn't have the power to do much – only to suggest and, as Trump pointed out, the Australian Central Bank lowered their rates by another 0.5% but keep in mind that Australia was on fire a few weeks ago and NOW they have the virus AND their primary trading partners are China and Japan – that's a little worse off than we are.

Image result for mnuchin g7 cartoonKeep in mind the lunacy that is going on here – we are having emergency G7 meetings led by Steve Mnuchin (a Goldman Sachs Bankster) who is telling the Global Finance Leaders that they must lower rates to prop up the markets BECAUSE THEY ARE 8% below their all-time record highs.  Propping up the markets is very expensive and it adds to government debt and it only helps the Top 1%, who own 90% of the stocks – what is the real agenda here?

Remember that Steve Mnuchin's primary experience after leaving Goldman Sachs in 2002 was overseeing the complete collapse of Sears as a Board Member from 2005 until 2016 when Trump decided he was the perfect guy to supervise the collapse of the United States of America as well…

Going more into debt can't be the answer for every problem – especially when it's "Let's go more into debt by giving more money to rich people."  The money doesn't trickle down – it's been 40 years of this BS and it has NEVER trickled down – it's a ridiculous strategy that used to be called "Voodoo Economics" until the Republicans realized they could win elections and, more importantly, win campaign contributions by making it the cornerstone of their economic platform.

Image result for adelson trump cartoonThat's why Shelly Adelson, who's worth $37Bn, is giving $25M to Trump and $100M to other GOP candidates this year – Trump's tax policies have already saved him Billions of Dollars and will save him Billions more over the next 4 years if Trump is re-elected while Bernie Sanders thinks Wynn (WYNN) Casinos should pay more than the (negative!) -$497M on $1.25 BILLION in Operating income they (un)paid in 2018 and perhaps Shelly should pay more than 12% taxes on his $4.2Bn income.  

It's Super Tuesday today with 14 states holding primaries including Texas and California and it's very possible that Bernie will sweep and essentially lock up the nomination – that will make things interesting for Corporate Profit forecasts as roughly 20% of corporate profits are the results of the Trump Tax Cuts, something Bernie and a Democratic House will quickly put a stop to in 2021.

And well they should as we are $1.2Tn in debt this year and, if Trump does get more stimulus pushed through to boost his re-election chances then Bernie, like Barack will come into the White House in a year that we are already running a $1.5Tn annual deficit.  No wonder Shelly is fighting so hard to keep Trump in office, 3% of that deficit has been going right in Adelson's pockets!

Image result for trump vegasObviously, it would be unfair for a man earning 76,363 times more than the Average American ($55,000) to pay more taxes than the Average American ($17,000) but it would be nice if at least we didn't have to PAY HIM $497M to fund the expansion of his casino in China.  What's more likely to happen under Trump is that we will be bailing out Mr. Adelson as his "vital" casino business is having a rough quarter due to the virus.  After all, who else do we know who owns a casino that might want a bailout?  

We'll be watching those bounce lines this morning and nothing less than taking back the strong bounce lines and holding them (without failing) for 2 days will convince us the sell-off is over.  Until then, we will patiently watch and wait:

  • The S&P, for example, fell from 3,400 to 2,900 so 500 points and a bounce is 20% of the drop so 100 points so 3,000 is a weak bounce and 3,100 is a strong bounce.  
  • The Dow was 29,500 to 25,000 so 4,500 would be 900 but we'll call it 1,000 as it's not an exact science and 100 points on the Dow is 10 seconds these days – and the Dow loves round numbers.  So 26,000 is weak and 27,000 is strong. 
  • Nasdaq fell from 9,600 (because 8,000 is the base so it's the 20% line and that overrules any other spike around it) to 8,400 because we have 400-point lines working so 8,800 is weak and 9,200 is strong.  8,400 is the weak bounce line off 8,000.  
  • Russell 1,600 is the main line and 1,400 is strong support so that's the range but we fell from 1,700 back to 1,450 so 250 means 50-point bounces to 1,500 (weak) and 1,550 (strong) 

While yesterday's recovery was very impressive – it didn't happen because the virus disappeared or the supply chains restarted or all the cancelled conferences are back on.  No, it happened because people think we are getting AT LEAST a 1/2-point rate cut and we can go back to blowing our market bubble – until the virus takes the breath from our lungs, anyway...

 

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Good Morning!

Reading the struggle that some people are facing when they show signs of the virus in the US to get tested or even to get the proper information doesn't fill me with a lot of confidence in the system. It looks like we are not well prepared if it explodes here!

This I scary – Trump is lying about the issue by withholding testing – view from the people on the ground

'National Scandal': ER Doctor Slams Trump Administration's Coronavirus Testing Logjam

From HuffPost, a Flipboard magazine by HuffPost

“I’m a practitioner on the firing line, and I don’t have the tools to properly care for patients today," warned…

Read it on Flipboard

Read it on huffpost.com

Great cartoon, Phil – it looks like the movie "Snow-piercer", made by Bong, who made "Parasite".

The bug – here's an assessment of the China situation. A review of Korea should be forthcoming, and we'll see how it matches up: https://www.reddit.com/r/China_Flu/comments/fbt49e/the_who_sent_25_international_experts_to_china/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x

The Bug – this graphic is the standard epidemiologic curve, doing the standard thing: https://imgur.com/a/6IL4xhv

 Fed cuts 50 bps

incredible….

albo – refinance time

i thought my TOS was having a robin hood moment. happy to have been long /ES but it didn't give me the exact exit i would've hoped for.  The nature of volatility i suppose! still a nice trade

BDC -Good point.

FED rate cut, an obvious short term fade.

Out of 1/3 of my JO today. Good call Phil!

Snow – we're going to be responsible for much of the NPI's in the US ourselves (or at the local government level)

Fed not feeling the pressure from Trump at all! Next question is – why do we need to cut rates in the greatest economy and markets of all time? Asking for a friend who is not well versed in economics.

I guess Powell was worried about being the recipient of many mean tweets! 

Stjean/Why  To Keep America Great…. 🙁

Phil – where do I find those futures trade pages in TOS that I see you watching in the videos?

The Bug "non-pharmaceutical interventions can reduce and even interrupt transmission" – Well, of course. That's why I was so frustrated with all the initial noise about putting huge efforts into drugs and vaccines. Neither will arrive in time, and standard public health measures have already been proven to work in outbreaks.

US Virus updates – yesterday we total cases was at 85 (. I think) today at 105?  This makes no sense – Washington and California were supposed to have their own testing capability in state, but apparently even though if they confirm a case it is not "official' until the federal gov confirms it.   So these numbers look to be low artificially – I'm trying to get the raw numbers int the two states but can't find them.

This was as of 2/28:  In California

There are currently 33 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in California, the governor and state health officials said today.

Speaking at a late morning press conference with Gov. Gavin Newsom, Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, broke down the numbers:

24 cases where people arrived on repatriation flights

7 that are travel-related

1 from person-to-person contact from a spouse living in the same home

1 new case that may be first instance of human-to-human transmission among the general public

I have some CD's and treasuries coming due.  Anybody have some 3 to 9 month covered call ideas.

I would like to collect one or two dividends and sell an in the money call that has some good downside protection.  I dont mind if I get called away, but not wanting to add sold puts at this time.  

Coronavirus delays PC and smartphone shipments for weeks

Ah, found it.

Chris Matthews retires from MSNBC

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