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Thrilling Thursday – Futures are Up because… Who the F**k Knows?

Leonard Nimoy Spock GIF - LeonardNimoy Spock Shit GIFsDon't ask me to explain this BS.

Yes, I know it's my job to explain this BS but sometimes I'm like Leornard Nimoy at the end of "In Search Of" when he would say "That is some strange sh*t" – or at least that's how I remember it ending… 

Speaking of ending, Trump is sending everyone back to work and wanted to disband the Coronavirus Task Force (people freaked out, so that's off for now) and, as usual, it takes less than 24 hours for his BS to be exposed as YESTERDAY the US once again led the World with 24,245 new infections, bringing our total to 1,228,457 so that's a 2% increase for the day which (doing the math for our Fox viewers) is a rate of 60% more per month, which would bring us to just under 2M infections in the next 30 days WITH THE LOCKDOWNS. 

But nooooooooooooooooooooo!, we're not going to continue the lockdowns are we?  Lockdowns are for pussies and we're Americans and Donald Trump says (literally, he actually said this) that we should be good soldiers and march back to work and many of us will be injured and some of us will die (more than Vietnam already) but the virus is our enemy and the way Trump wants to defeat it is by throwing American lives at it until it gives up!  

Trump didn't fight in Vietnam (bone spurs) but perhapse one of our Republican readers can explain to the President that, when a soldier is injured or killed in a war, he doesn't come home and infect his family and friends as well.  If that were the case – I think we would have less wars.  Telling a father of 2 young children to leave his home and commute back to New York City to shuffle papers "for the good of the economy" doesn't just put his life in danger but the life of his wife, his children and their entire community.  That's not just irresponsible of the President – it's reprehensible! 

Without testing and protective equipment it's ridiculous to conduct an experiment on the entire US population to see if we can get back to work.  Yes, other countries are getting back to work – but they are doing it with testing, tracking and PPE in place to make sure there are no new outbreaks.  We haven't even contained the original outbreak yet...

As you can see from that 1995 trailer, there's no way the Administration could have been prepared for something like this to happen.  SARS came along in 2002, MERS was 2012 and Corona 2020.  I guess whoever is President in 2030 (if there's still a country by then) will say "No one could have seen this coming" when we have the next major virus too.  

relates to Hundreds of Earnings Calls Show Companies More Scared Than 2008The Federal Reserve is doing a study and, so far, with 600 public companies reporting earnings, 42% of American non-financial public companies are discussing slashing investments and 17% are focused on drawing down on credit lines. At the peak of the last recession the figures were 25% and 7%, respectively.

“The dramatic increase in the share of firms taking these actions indicates that financing concerns amid the Covid-19 outbreak are even more severe than they were in 2008,” the Fed wrote.

According to a new survey from the Society for Human Resource Management, 52% of small businesses expect to be out of business within six months. The survey of 375 firms was conducted between April 15-21 and doesn’t account for improved business conditions as some U.S. states reopen this month.  “SHRM has tracked Covid-19’s impact on work, workers, and the workplace for months,” said SHRM Chief Executive Officer Johnny C. Taylor, Jr., “but these might be the most alarming findings to date. Small business is truly the backbone of our economy. So, when half say they’re worried about being wiped out, let’s remember: We’re talking about roughly 14 million businesses.”

Coffins lined up for transport in Bergamo, Italy.Just over a third of small firms expect that they can continue to operate more that 6 months, while 14% are uncertain, according to the survey. About one quarter of firms have seen revenues rise or remain unchanged in recent months.  Among employees, hourly workers were hit hardest with eight in 10 firms cutting those positions, while 60% of surveyed businesses laid off salaried workers. A third of the companies polled by the advocacy group expected their payroll reductions to be permanent.

While we have been bullish from the late March bottom, we're already at our recovery goal on the S&P 500 at 2,850 and so we've begun to lighten up on our longs as the evidence is mixed – at best.  There are currently more people out of work than there were at the height of the last Financial Crisis and, although the Fed and the Government have quickly come to the table with epic stimulus – it's going to be a long, slow road to recovery yet many stocks are trading at record highs. 

We were already trading at record high valuations against forward earnings estimates before this crisis hit but now we are 10% higher than that – THAT'S INSANE!  There's really no rationality to justify this – you have a Government that's lying to you and telling you things are going to be fine when they very likely will not be but, clearly, we have proven that you can indeed fool some of the people ALL of the time and even all of the people some of the time and this is clearly a reflection of that.

We have been lightening up on our long positions and we're very well-hedged but that's still no reason to risk too much so, if we can't hold 2,850 on the S&P – we are very likely to lighten up some more.  Tomorrow we will get a horrific Non-Farm Payroll number and indications are that 22M Americans (14% of the workforce) is out of work and we're certainly on the way to 30M or more (20%) – numbers we haven't seen since the Great Depression.  

Still, $6,500,000,000,000 is a lot of money and, though the stimulus has clearly been misapplied, there's still bound to be some effect so the real wildcard is how fast does infection spread as we re-open America, because the absolute worst thing we can do is open too early and then realize we have to shut down again for 3 months.  

We're 6 weeks into a lockdown with 6 weeks to go per the original recommendation and we're about to toss those 6 weeks out the window to roll the dice on the future of our country.  I HOPE Trump is right and I HOPE things work out fine – but it's certainly not a gamble I would take with other people's lives.

 


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  1. Good Morning


  2. Good Morning.



  3. But Nooooo/Phil

    I believe it's pronounced…

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Q4JfaHjAng

    :)


  4. I love history and I don't know how far back you have to look to see this country in such bad shape – not just economically, but mentally and morally. I guess the Civil War! Even in the depth of World War 2, people knew that they could trust Roosevelt to be honest about the hardship the nation faced, to work with the best possible people to find solutions. Today, we have Jared working with volunteers to award contracts to incompetent Trump donors! We want people to go out and risk their lives without explaining the risks or worse, hiding them! We don't plan, we don't prepare, we have no empathy for the people who are suffering. We divide the country between blue and red states, we fire whistleblowers, we insult journalists who tell the truth! We are truly worse off than we have been in a long, long time. </rant>


  5. Phil IMAX-

     

    I see you are dumping IMAX – what do you feel about this position?

    I have the Dec 5/10 BCS that i picked up for 2.60  — do you think $10 is safe?  Or I  guess $7.60 would be break-even.   

     

    Thanks


  6. Good morning, All! 

    The webinar replays are up! 

    YouTube:

    https://youtu.be/-m1iHOB3SAg

    BitChute:

    https://www.bitchute.com/video/80cJ6LJi4ti5/


  7. Andrew macreath says market is up on strong china trade balance


  8. 3M more people out of work! Futures are up as this must be good news. We'll find ways to replace these people with robots or maybe not replace them at all! 


  9. ET – it's strange – the 2022 $3 calls have almost no vol or time premium. Basically trading near intrinsic value. Is this happening to some extent market-wide, or unique to this ticker? What are you guys seeing?


  10. personally I think 30 million people out of work in this situation is a good thing at least somebody might be isolating.


  11. imagine if this turns out to be like chicken pox and shingles and once you've had it it can come back and make you very sick like it is with these children they have discovered.


  12. Phil, any thoughts on the VIAC quarter?  Thanks.


  13. ‘I Was Quite Surprised’ – How Dealers Have Adapted to Lockdown


  14. President Trump vetoes Iran War Powers resolution


  15. Over 30 Million Americans Are Jobless



  16. The Bug – Here's an interesting report; I'm sure most of you have already heard something about it. In brief, the spike protein on the Italian strain of the virus is mutated such that it spreads more easily. This strain is the primary strain in the eastern US, but the western US was infected early on by the strain from China, a less infectious one. Naturally the more infectious bug has a reproductive advantage, so it will dominate areas where it's introduced. I don't know, but I would guess that the two strains are close enough that having one immunizes you against the other. https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.29.069054v1


  17. Good morning!

    Another save at the 50 dmas – at leas the bots are buying.

    No/1020 – I did add that on the 2nd edit.  I can't believe how many times he did it but that's the only clip I could find.

    History/StJ – Repeats:

    People are sufferin'

    (I say it again, again, again, again)

    People are hungry

    (I say it again, again, again, again)

    People are lonely

    (I say it again, again, again, again)

    Through centuries of history it reverberates

    The song goes onTownshend

    IMAX/Jeff – Though I still like them long-term, the short-term duration of the options isn't likely to hit the time-frame for a recovery.  You could wait and see how China's re-opening goes but it's a gamble you won't be able to recover from if it doesn't work out so I decided not worth the risk.  If they do drop back below $10 though – I'll be looking for another way to get back in.

    Trade/Tommy – That would be one hell of a distorted and meaningless number. 

    ET/Dawg – That happens a lot to REITs that pay out massive dividends.  

    VIAC/1020 – Obviously not a surprise, I've been banging the table on VIAC all year.  

    They were lucky that they had just made a huge push for CBS All Access as those revenues saved them this Q.  They do very little International Revenue so it's all about the US market for them but, as I've kept saying, they are not very sports-oriented though they were supposed to do March Madness, which was cancelled.  I'm not sure if that is insured or delayed or what?  

    RESPONSE TO COVID-19

    In response to COVID-19, ViacomCBS focused on reinforcing financial flexibility and business continuity, while supporting its employees and communities.

    • Reinforced financial flexibility: ViacomCBS strengthened its balance sheet and liquidity with a $2.5 billion debt offering in April and implemented cost savings initiatives to mitigate revenue impacts.
    • Evolved content operations: Leveraging alternative production models and its extensive library, the company ensured the continuity of its linear and streaming programming, including national and local news and late night. It also shifted its film releases to preserve the value of its strong slate.
    • Ensured employee safety: The company quickly pivoted to remote working, with strict protocols for protecting employees, and committed $100 million to support impacted TV and film production personnel.
    • Supported community wellbeing: The company launched an expansive PSA campaign, #AloneTogether, resulting in over 80,000 linear spots and more than half a billion video views on social. It also aired relief specials, including BET’s Saving Our Selves and Global Citizen’s One World: Together at Home.

    Q1 STREAMING & DIGITAL VIDEO HIGHLIGHTS

    In Q1, ViacomCBS delivered strong revenue growth, and saw record sign-ups and consumption across pay and free streaming.

    • Domestic streaming and digital video revenue – which includes streaming subscription and digital video advertising revenue – grew to $471 million, up 51% year-over-year.
    • Domestic streaming subscribers surpassed 13.5M, up 50% year-over-year.

    − CBS All Access and Showtime OTT delivered record subscribers, sign-ups and consumption, reflecting original programming, including Star Trek: Picard and Homeland.

    • In free, Pluto TV’s domestic monthly active users (MAUs) grew to a record of 24M+, an increase of 55% year-over-year.

    − In March, Pluto TV rolled out its most significant product upgrade, introducing a new interface, updated features and improved search capabilities for an enhanced user experience.

    − Pluto TV expanded distribution in the US and internationally, including with XBOX, Roku, Verizon in April and TiVo in May. In the quarter, Pluto TV also launched in 17 countries in Latin America, with more than 12,000 hours of Spanish-language programming.

    SURGE IN GROWTH IN APRIL

    • With more consumers at home, ViacomCBS streaming platforms had their best month, with accelerated subscriber growth and consumption, reinforcing consumer demand for its content.
    • CBS All Access and Showtime OTT sign-ups, daily average streams and minutes watched all rose substantially, versus the prior month.

    − Live TV and original programming, such as Star Trek: DiscoveryStar Trek: PicardThe Good Fight and Survivor, drove consumption records in April on CBS All Access, with total streams and minutes watched up significantly.

    − Showtime OTT delivered its best month ever in time watched and total streams. Viewers took advantage of the full catalogue, with streaming of original series, such as Homeland and Penny Dreadful: City of Angels, and movies growing +50% and +110% year-over-year, respectively.

    − CBS All Access and Showtime OTT are seeing strong account activation, as well as consistent paid subscription conversion rates.

    In short:

    Top Trades for Thu, 23 Jan 2020 13:36 – VIAC

     

    How about VIAC?  $37.22 is $23Bn and they should make around $3.3Bn this year and more next year. In fact, that's a good one for the LTP:

    • Sell 10 VIAC 2022 $32.50 puts for $4 ($4,000) 
    • Buy 30 VIAC 2022 $35 calls for $7 ($21,000)
    • Sell 30 VIAC 2022 $42.50 calls for $4 ($12,000) 

    That's net $5,000 on the $22,500 spread so the upside potential is $17,500 at $42.50 and the risk is owning 1,000 shares of VIAC for net $37.50 (about where it is now).  This is a first round, of course, we hope it gets cheaper and we can sell more puts and add more longs or widen the spread but, if it doesn't – we'll take the $22,500 as we should end up with at least 20 positions in the LTP (plus 20 naked short puts) – even in a "normal market" (we had more like 40 long positions in the last LTP.  

    That was a disaster and we rolled down to this:

    VIAC Short Put 2022 21-JAN 17.00 PUT [VIAC @ $16.74 $1.86] -30 3/23/2020 (624) $-27,000 $9.00 $-2.35 $1.90     $6.65 - $7,050 26.1% $-19,950
    VIAC Long Call 2022 21-JAN 5.00 CALL [VIAC @ $16.74 $1.86] 50 3/23/2020 (624) $35,000 $7.00 $5.63     $12.63 $1.63 $28,125 80.4% $63,125
    VIAC Short Call 2022 21-JAN 15.00 CALL [VIAC @ $16.74 $1.86] -50 3/23/2020 (624) $-15,000 $3.00 $4.23     $7.23 $1.33 $-21,125 -140.8% $-36,125

    Our loss on the original spread was $32,700 and we're in this set for a net $7,000 credit so net net $25,700 and we get back $50,000 if VIAC is over $15 so it's been a long, hard road to a 100% gain but it does look like there's light at the end of the tunnel.  The net of the spread is now only $7,050 so it's still great for a new trade!  

    Interesting/Snow – Not all that encouraging, actually.  Hopefully one is milder.  

    DIS coming back nicely.  I was very on the fence but made a speech about why I will stick with them in the Webinar.  

    Dr mickey! | Mickey mouse wallpaper, Disney fine art, Mickey


  18. Phil- way back when 5/1, you said this about TWO.

    TWO – No long-term options but ridiculously cheap at $4.30 ($1.2Bn) after making $280M last year.  Unless they go BK, I love them for the long-haul so let's just buy 1,000 for the Dividend Portfolio ($4,300) and see how earnings go (5/6) before selling puts or calls.

    Earnings seemed decent. They are now 4.70.

    Are they too similar to NLY ?, or should we be content with 10% in a week return.


  19. any NAK news? nice pop today


  20. TWO/Randers – Well I wasn't talking about a day trade.  If you want to own them as a dividend-payer (eventually) then this is a nice, long-term entry.  The same is true for NLY, AGNC, CIM – it probably doesn't get much cheaper than this for an entry.  It is possible that some of them just have a bad mix of mortgages and get hit hard and maybe don't recover – so be realistic about the risk involved with any of them.

    Trade exchanges doing great:

    • Ameriprise Financial (NYSE:AMP) surges 18% after boosting its quarterly dividend by 7% and Q1 non-GAAP EPS beat consensus estimates by a wide margin.
    • "We completed the quarter with a sizable excess capital position that provides important flexibility, and we also have ample liquidity." said Chairman and CEO Jim Cracchiolo.
    • Q1 adjusted operating EPS of $5.41 crushed the average analyst estimate of $3.51 and jumped from $3.75 in the year-ago quarter; GAAP EPS of $15.88 compares with $2.82 in Q1 2019.
    • Asset Management AUM of $426B at Q1-end slips from $459B at March 31, 2019; segment net outflows of $2.5B vs. outflows of $7.2B in the year-ago quarter.
    • Previously: Ameriprise Financial raises dividend by 7% (May 6)
    • In a well-timed piece, U.S. Global Investors CEO and Chief Investment Officer Frank Holmes takes to Seeking Alpha to explain why legendary investor Warren Buffett may have it wrong in exiting his airline investments.
    • "I see the downturn in airline equities as a once-in-a-generation buying opportunity. That’s not just my opinion. In the first quarter alone, we saw record inflows into airline stocks. These inflows appear to be by contrarian deep-value investors that are betting that the current depressed airline industry values will rebound following the coronavirus crisis," writes Holmes.
    • He also points to the big jump in daily commercial air passengers last week as an indication that the recovery may be starting.
    • Holmes channels Baron Rothschild in saying the time to buy is when there's blood in the streets. That would be around now.
    • Under exceptional (emergency use) status, Japan's Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare has approved Gilead Sciences' (GILD +0.4%) remdesivir, branded as Veklury, for the treatment of severely ill COVID-19 patients.
    • The NYT reports that the White House has rejected the guidelines from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) for reopening the U.S. economy calling the plan "too prescriptive" per administration officials.
    • According to a person familiar with the matter, Chief of Staff Mark Meadows perceives that the guidelines are too uniform and regressive for areas with relatively few cases.
    • President Trump is keen to get things back on track after the COVID-19 shutdowns which have decimated economic activity and left millions jobless. Unemployment is as high as 25% in some places.
    • More than half of states have started reopening their economies or plan to do so soon, although most fail to meet criteria to resume business and social activities per the White House's nonbinding guidelines.
    • Tesla (TSLA -0.6%) is reported to have halted production at its Shanghai plant.
    • Workers on a national labor holiday break from May 1 to May 5 were told not to come back until May 9 at the earliest.
    • The extra days off are reportedly due to a parts shortage.
    • Smaller packaged food stocks are outperformers on the day as earnings reports continue to show the benefit of consumer stockpiling in Q1 and into Q2. Investors are moving away from some of the larger names already bid up on the stay-at-home trend.
    • Gainers include Darling Ingredients (DAR +9.3%), Farmer Bros. (FARM +7.3%), SunOpta (STKL +6.5%), Bridgford Foods (BRID +4.9%), Simply Good Foods (SMPL +1.7%), Lifeway Foods (LWAY +2.9%), Calavo Growers (CVGW +2.0%) and BellRing Brands (BRBR +3.2%).
    • The apparel retail sector is showing gains as more stores lay out their plans for reopenings over the next few weeks.
    • Gainers include Express (EXPR +10.0%), Genesco (GCO +8.0%), Tailored Brands (TLRD +6.1%), Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF +7.2%), Gap (GPS +8.0%), Designer Brands (DBI +6.1%), Guess (GES +6.3%), Shoe Carnival (SCVL +7.1%), Chico's (CHS +5.4%), American Eagle Outfitters (AEO +4.5%), L Brands (LB +6.4%), Urban Outfitters (URBN +3.7%), Nordstrom (JWN +2.4%), Macy's (M +3.7%) and Citi Trends (CTRN +3.9%).
    • While a consumer survey run by Gordon Haskett indicated that only 43% of consumers feel safe visiting a mall in the next month, that's 43 percentage points over the level of recent mall traffic.
    • 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averages 3.26% for the week ending May 7, vs. 3.23% in the prior week and 4.10% at this time a year ago, according to the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey.
    • “Mortgage rates stayed at or near record lows for the fifth straight week and homeowners are taking advantage with refinance activity remaining high,” said Freddie Chief Economist Sam Khater.
    • While purchase demand fell  35% Y/Y in mid-April, it has "improved modestly over the last three weeks," he added.
    • 15-year FRM averages 2.73% vs 2.77% in the prior week and 3.57% a year ago.
    • 5-year Treasury-linked hybrid adjustable rate mortgage averages 3.17% vs. 3.14% in the prior week and 3.63% a year ago.
    • iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (BATS:ITBgains 1.8%; among homebuilder names, PulteGroup (PHM +2.9%), Toll Brothers (TOL +3.1%), Beazer Homes USA (BZH +2.2%), and Hovnanian Enterprises (HOV +1.3%) make strong moves up.
    • iShares Mortgage Real Estate Capped ETF (REM +1.8%); Invesco Mortgage (IVR +3.7%), PennyMac Mortgage (PMT +4.6%), Annaly Capital (NLY +2.7%), and New York Mortgage Trust (NYMT +2.8%) are among the biggest gainers in that sector.
    • ViacomCBS is sharply higher this morning (VIAC +13.5%VIACA +10.3%) after it easily beat expectations with its Q1 earnings report, which showed sequential improvement in profit numbers amid significant digital video sales growth.
    • Revenues overall dipped 6% year-over-year, to $6.67B, and GAAP operating income was nearly halved to $917M.
    • That's resulted in GAAP net earnings down 74% to $508M. Adjusted net earnings were down 22%, not as much as feared.
    • The company has taken a hit from the COVID-19 pandemic. Ad revenue slid 19% – but excluding a 21-point unfavorable impact from comparing against last year's broadcasts of the Super Bowl and the NCAA Tournament (neither of which CBS had this year), ad revenues rose 2%. And international ad revenue saw a 10-percentage-point impact from foreign exchange.
    • In newer initiatives, domestic streaming and digital video revenue grew to $471M, up 51%. Domestic streaming subscribers are up 50% to pass 13.5M.
    • Revenue by type: Advertising, $2.48B (down 19%); Affiliate, $2.2B (up 1%); Content Licensing, $1.59B (up 9%); Theatrical, $167M (down 3%); Publishing, $170M (up 4%); Other, $57M (down 16%).
    • Alongside a strong beat on Q1 earnings, Viacom (VIAC +13.9%VIACA +14%) has announced an expanded distribution agreement with Google (GOOG +1.3%GOOGL +1.2%).
    • Financial terms weren't disclosed.
    • That comprehensive multi-year deal adds more Viacom content for YouTube TV subscribers, including 14 channels in addition to continued carriage of CBS broadcast stations, CBS Sports Network, Pop TV, Smithsonian Channel and the CW.
    • The new deal adds brands like BET, CMT, Comedy Central, MTV, Nickelodeon, Paramount Network, TV Land and VH1 this summer, as well as a continued commitment for premium services like Showtime.

    • Crude oil rallies again (CL1:COM) and is on track for its best week in history, supported by bullish factors including U.S. companies cutting production, Saudi Arabia raising its official oil selling price and gasoline demand improving as economies around the world reopen.
    • June WTI +8.8% to $26.10/bbl, pushing this week's gains to nearly 35% and on pace for its best week going back to the contract's inception in 1983; July Brent +5.7% to $31.41/bbl.
    • "Nascent signs of rebounding gasoline demand in the U.S. and a rapid curtailment of oil production that has seen U.S. producers cut over one million barrels per day of output in a matter of weeks has enabled oil prices to recover," Again Capital's John Kilduff tells CNBC. "There is an increasing sense that the worst is behind the industry."
    • Also providing a boost is Saudi Arabia raising its official oil selling prices, which "alleviates pressure on global crude pricing," says Mizuho energy analyst Paul Sankey. "They are still fighting for market share in Asia but have backed off U.S. market share competition all but completely."
    • Roth Capital is optimistic on Wynn Resorts (NASDAQ:WYNN), keeping a Buy rating on its view that Wynn will recover quicker than peers in Macau and Vegas.
    • "WYNN’s peer-weighted VIP amongst first to recover in Macau. We continue to forecast overall premium mass and VIP play to lead the recovery," writes analyst David Bain.
    • "We believe WYNN’s low convention weighting and customer quality versus mass quantity should benefit an early recovery in Las Vegas," he adds.
    • Roth Capital has a 12-month price target on Wynn of $99.
    • Shares of Wynn are up 2.61% to $81.97. The company's detailed plan on reopening casinos highlighted during the conference call (transcript) yesterday could be helping sentiment.
    • Casino stocks are off to a strong start after Wynn Resorts (WYNN +3.4%) reported earnings yesterday.
    • While the Q1 numbers from Wynn were lackluster as anticipated, the company's detailed plan on reopening casinos and doing what it can to generate business amid social distancing is helping to lift beat-up sentiment on the sector.
    • Notable gainers include Red Rock Resorts (RRR +6.7%), Boyd Gaming (BYD +7.7%), Golden Entertainment (GDEN +4.9%), Century Casinos (CNTY +2.5%), Penn National Gaming (PENN +6.3%), MGM Resorts (MGM +4.1%) and Twin River Worldwide (TRWH +2.7%).
    • Previously: Wynn Resorts higher with reopening plan standing out (May 7)
    • Stocks open with strong gains as investors look past another spike in U.S. jobless claims, perhaps focusing on speedier-than-hoped progress for Moderna's COVID-19 vaccine; S&P 500 +1.4% while Dow and Nasdaq both +1.3%.
    • The Nasdaq's early advance has brought it back to flat for the year, though still down about 10% from the high hit in mid-February.
    • Optimism also is stoked by a rally in crude oil after the Saudis raised their crude pricing in an effort to prompt a market recovery, sending Brent bouncing above $31/bbl, while WTI jumps 9% to surpass $26/bbl.
    • European bourses also trade broadly higher, with U.K.'s FTSE +1% while Germany's DAX and France's CAC both +1.1%.
    • In the U.S., the early sector leaders include energy (+4.3%), financials (+2.9%) and information technology (+1.5%).
    • Stocks that would benefit from the reopening of the economy also gained, including MGM Resorts (+4.1%) and Hilton Worldwide (+2.2%).
    • U.S. 10-year Treasury yield down 2 bps to 0.69%.
    • Peloton Interactive (NASDAQ:PTON) is holding on to its post-earnings jump as the company's key metrics for Q1 impress analysts and investors.
    • Wedbush analyst James Hardiman makes a strong case why Peloton might be more than just a COVID-19 stay-at-home story.
    • Hardiman says the company was on a promising trajectory even before the COVID-19 outbreak and points out that the incremental customers gained as a result of stay-at-home owners are primarily incremental customers rather than merely demand be pulled forward from future periods. He also notes a significant portion of gym-goers are likely to cancel their memberships rather than rejoin their gyms, creating an ongoing opportunity for PTON and highlights that brand awareness of and interest in Peloton has soared over the past year.
    • Wedbush has an Outperform rating on PTON and price target of $50.
    • Previously: Peloton tops subscriber expectations, hikes guidance (May 6)
    • GrubHub (NYSE:GRUBreports Q1 beats with 12% Y/Y revenue growth.
    • Q1 highlights: Revenue of $363M (+12% Y/Y), Non-GAAP Adj. EBITDA was $21M (-59% Y/Y).
    • Active diners were 23.9M (+24% Y/Y), Daily Average Grubs 516,300 (-1% Y/Y), Gross Food Sales $1.6B (+8% Y/Y).
    • The company expects Q2 adj. EBITDA of $5M.
    • Previously: GrubHub EPS beats by $0.03, beats on revenue (May 6).
    • Dave & Buster's Entertainment (NASDAQ:PLAY) prices an offering of 9.6M shares at $10.44 per share.
    • The company is using the proceeds primarily to strengthen its balance sheet.
    • SEC Form 8-K
    • PLAY +2.31% premarket to $11.06.

  21. NAK/Coulter – The floated $8.75M of additional stock last week, a small dilution.   Nothing else I see. 


  22. Travel From New York City Seeded Wave of U.S. Outbreaks


  23. The market v the real economy



  24. GBTC lolz, holy crap I'm a terrible trader


  25. Phil is GOLD or NEM still good for a new trade?  And if so what would you recommend?


  26. GBTC/BDC – How so?

    • via Bloomberg
    • The famous hedge funder says Bitcoin (BTC-USD) is a hedge against "great monetary inflation," and reminds him of gold in the 70s.
    • The news has sparked the popular crypto to a new post-crash high, now up 4.7% today to $9,718.
    • GBTC +9.2%

    GOLD/Tangled – Now it's chasing, I wouldn't.  

    • Investors chose "the sunny side" of a "horrible" labor report, Allianz's Mohamed A. El Erian wrote earlier, describing how the market keeps distancing itself  from the real economy.
    • The commentary comes as the Nasdaq pushes into the green for the year, while the S&P 500 remains down 11% year-to-date.
    • This disconnect is bearing out in treasuries, as SA's Stephen Alpher earlier wrote.
    • The rate of labor "disclocation," however, is moderating, El-Erian said, expecting the overall picture though to continue to drive the narrative of "Wall Street versus Main Street."
    • His key questions in the aftermath of the labor report include the rate of the unemployed getting jobs, when aggregate numbers stabilize, what the labor force will look like post Covid-19, how many leave the labor force, and what impact is felt to hourly earnings.
    • The monthly jobs report tomorrow, he says, won't immediately provide "satisfactory" answers, but could provide some insights.

  27. If anyone is directly (no agents) in need of 3M Medical Grade N95 masks, if you are in the health care field we (New Age) can process orders of 10M or more at no less than 2M per month for $1.96 each.  Terms are:  A) Sign NDNA Agreement  B) Produce Letter of Intent  C) Provide Proof of Funds  D) Customer Vetted prior to delivery directly from 3M.  

    3M 8210 Plus N95 Respirator Mask for sale online | eBay

    Contact me or Greg (@ philstockworld dot com) if you or someone you know would like to make arrangements.


  28. Any idea how many masks/day 3M can currently make?


  29. Why would hospitals etc not buy all that you can get?


  30. NAK 3x avg volume – seems like somebody knows somethin


  31. Oh, 3M web site answers all.


  32. Masks/Tangled – Yes, they are just getting production on-line to go from 1.1Bn/yr to 2.2Bn yr so about 200M a month by July.  As to hospitals, they are buying.  We don't have an exclusive but we went through a process that authorizes us to sell.  There are people far more connected than we are hitting them with 50-100M orders already.

    NAK/Coulter – Well it's all about the EPA approvals so maybe some progress.  

    • Brookfield Asset Management (BAM +3.5%) launches a Retail Revitalization Program that's "designed to assist medium-sized enterprises in getting back on their feet."
    • The program, which will be funded by Brookfield and its institutional partners, will focus on non-control investments in retail businesses to help with capital needs during "this period of dislocation."
    • Brookfield in targeting $5B to be put toward the program; it will focus on retail businesses that have $250M or greater in normalized revenues and have been operating for at least two years.
    • Ron Bloom, managing partner and vice chairman of the company's Private Equity Group, will lead the program; he was involved with restructuring the automobile industry on behalf of the U.S. government during the 2008 financial crisis.
    • In addition to capital, Brookfield will also make available its resources and expertise as one of the largest investors iin both real estate and private equity.

    Wow, this is going to end very badly, I think:

    • The Nevada Gaming Commission approved various measures to be used to keep customers safe at casinos in the state. The development has pushed the casino sector even higher as the prospect for reopenings increases. Even operators with no properties in Nevada are seeing share price gains.
    • As expected, casinos in Nevada will have to have a floor plan to promote social distancing and limit patrons at table games. Occupancy will be limited to 50% capacity and no large gatherings like concerts will be allowed.
    • Some Las Vegas casino companies are taking reservations for Memorial Day weekend.
    • Sector watch: Caesars Entertainment (CZR +1.8%), MGM Resorts (MGM +5.7%), Boyd Gaming (BYD +10.2%), Wynn Resorts (WYNN +0.8%), Las Vegas Sands (LVS +1.9%), Full House Resorts (FLL +4.0%), Red Rock Resorts (RRR +10.2%), Vici Properties (VICI +2.8%), MGM Growth Properties (MGP +2.7%), Golden Entertainment (GDEN +7.9%), Scientific Games (SGMS +10.1%), Twin River Worldwide (TRWH +2.7%), Eldorado Resorts (ERI +6.3%), Monarch Casinos & Resort (MCRI +2.8%), Penn National Gaming (PENN +15.4%), Century Casinos (CNTY +3.2%), Churchill Downs (CHDN +5.1%).
    • Nevada Gaming Control Board special meeting agenda

    Is the plan that, just in case we miss infecting some people, we'll re-open Vegas so infected people can come from all over the World, infect more people there and then we send them back out all over the World to re-spread the disease?  If so – Mission Accomplished!

    Keep in mind 50% capacity is the normal crowd – only New Years or a major convention gets you to capacity in Vegas.  

    Lying to the FBI is now OK:

    Justice Department to Drop Case Against Mike Flynn

    The Justice Department moved to drop its case against Mike Flynn, in a major reversal more than two years after the former national security adviser pleaded guilty to lying to the FBI.6 minutes ago

    More than a respiratory infection, Covid-19 wreaks havoc not just on lungs, but also the brain, kidneys, heart, vascular and digestive systems, and feet. Inflammation and abnormal blood clotting are likely culprits.397

    Time to re-open for sure:

    The coronavirus’s toll was in sharp relief for political leaders weighing reopening plans, as the number of confirmed cases climbed toward four million and millions more Americans filed for unemployment.62724 minutes ago

    It's funny because you see this happen in those virus horror movies and you think while you're watching it that it's unrealistic and actual political leaders would never make such poor decisions that could doom the species just to make some money guys happy – yet here we are….

    The Glut Drowning the Oil Market

    A Crisis for Urban Universities

    Michigan’s Governor on Protests, Lockdowns and the Economy

    More than half of U.S. states have begun to reopen their economies or plan to do so soon. But most fail to meet criteria recommended by the Trump administration to resume business and social activities.


  33. Obviously the thing to do here is not help these people when the virus comes for them. People have to be held accountable for their decisions.


  34. Virus horror movies/Phil – yes, corrupt politicians ignoring outbreaks to encourage tourism – that only happens in movies……https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/San_Francisco_plague_of_1900%E2%80%931904

    ;)


  35. It's time, BDC:

    We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness.—That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed,—That whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their Safety and Happiness.

    Over Labor Day Weekend (2017), a nationwide poll of 800 likely voters, conducted by John Zogby Strategies asked, among other questions, which view is closer to their own on the topic of secession; Statement A: If a majority of residents within a given state prefer to have the final say over their destiny without the control of Washington D.C. then let them have it – it is their right. Statement B: If residents within a given state were to take such a drastic measure and secede from the United States, the federal government would be justified in sending in the military to prevent secession from taking place.

    While nearly 1/3 of the public (32%) agree that the federal government should intervene to stop any state movement for secession, nearly four in ten (39%) agree that each state has the ultimate say over their destiny and that secession is a right. Just shy of three in ten were not sure (29%).

    Drilling down deeper, those 18-29 years of age are most likely of all age groups to support secession (47%). Support drops with the progression of each age cohort. Those 65+ only find 1 in 3 voters (33%) who agree.

    Looking at party, Democrats take a slight lead with 41% in agreeing on the right of secession, followed by 40% of those identifying as “Independent or Other party”. Republicans have similar a level of intensity as 38% also went with the option supporting the right of a state to break from the federal government.

    Finally, a breakdown of region shows high support for secession within the South, Northeast, and out West (48%, 43%, and 43% respectively) while those living in the Central/Great Lakes region show support from one quarter of residents (25%).


  36. The problem is that starting from the top with Trump, there is no accountability anymore. People will risk their lives (and their family's lives) to make a point, Owning the Libs is so much fun. But then if they get sick, they want to be treated like the people who stayed home and followed the rules. And overwhelm the healthcare system. Maybe we need new rules!


  37. STJ / Phil / others.

    I'm sure in saying this i'll somehow aligning with them/trump/fox/hitler but i think we would do well to remember that most people affected by this situation, regardless of political alliance, are just terrified. Scared of catching the f'kin 'rona, scared of losing their home, their business, scared of ending up broke or even just scared of the absolute unknown.  What happens if they can't vaccinate? If this mutates further? if life as we know it gets ruined for ever? if i can't see my elderly parents before they die?

    It's a god awful situation that EVERYONE is tired of.  All of humanity wants this to be gone and none of us know how or when this ends. Everyone is at a different state of the grief process and just like grief, it manifests in countless ways through all kinds of people.  Forget blunderous Trump, the obnoxious media (on all sides) with their litany of terrifying adjectives, the lunatics protesting or those who shoot security guards enforcing mask rules.. all of that, all of those radical ends of the spectrum do nothing but divide us. We need unity and compassion towards each other,  to perhaps not fantasize about secession or an alternate healthcare system for those who don't follow the rules. That reduced-care hospital would be full of those who didn't wear their seatbelts.

    Everything the media says aims to divide us, to highlight the fringe madness, to convince us – once reasonable people – that the other side of the aisle is to be ignored and scoffed at. There is no more nuance and no more love.  CNN is as bad as FOX.

    Cuomo said it best,  'if we can't put aside politics now, even for a moment, then when can we?'


  38. I agree that we need to put politics aside Potter but let's not again go with the "both sides do it". You mentioned Cuomo – let's compare his comments with what comes out of the WH or even from McConnell! They are the ones making comments about red states and blue states. Did you hear Pelosi say that we should not help red states (even though blue states do it every year). Did McConnell put politics aside when he was blocking stimulus packages in 2008 during the last bad crisis? And no, CNN is not as bad as Fox – they don't push idiotic conspiracy theories, or dangerous remedies, repeat WH talking points and so on. There is simply no comparison. Sure, there are people with opinions, but it simply does not compare. 

    Not all the media aim to divide us! But surely Trump does it and for sure Fox does it. So, it would be nice to be the adult in the room and put politics aside but not at the cost of getting hammered days in and days out and not be able to respond. I just want these nightmares (Covid-19 and Trump) to end so that we can again put politics aside and find solutions! 


  39. I agree with everything you're saying! But my point still stands – on a personal and community level – we must resist their attempts to divide us; GOP politician spouts nonsense, Democraric voter is outraged and constructs opinion of Republican voter,  Dem news outlet mocks GOP idiocy in arrogant tone, Rep voter feels insecure, Fox cherry picks Dem blunders or highlight arrogance, Dem is outraged, Rep is reasurred, GOP politician talks more nonsense… the loop literally repeats for eternity and before you know it, you and the guy next door hate each other. 
    it doesn't even matter who is right, the division has happened and you know exactly which way both votes are being cast this fall.  If we truly want to get Trump out, we have to change the landscape of politics.  I heard somebody say once;  "every time we bomb Afghanistan, more rebel fighters are born.. literally the bombs we drop are like seeds that, through the propaganda they fuel, birth more and more terrorists". I think the same is true here.  There needs to be news that celebrates trump when he is successful and holds him accountable when he is not.  That way we're not just preaching to our own choir with anti trump rhetoric that is so easily extinguished by the FOX machine.

    when you fight with your wife It doesn't matter that you're right, you're still sleeping on the couch. 


  40. I'm with you, potter

    ps – fighting and sleeping on the couch LOLZ!!! so true so true….


  41. Phil / GBTC – sold it off right before a big run-up!


  42. potter – you can't totally agree and then stand on your point… 

    That is a sure way to the couch!


  43. Why is tdump looking to blame the Chinese for COVID when he's done spectacularly in perpetuating it here in America? 

    I really do think he hates all of us.  :(


  44. potter/StJ: There was a study released by the NY Federal Reserve last week using data concerning the Spanish Flu of 1918 and its effect on Germany and showed a direction correlation between the amount of deaths during the pandemic the amount of votes for right-wing extremist parties (e.g. Nazis) but insignificant increases for left-wing extremist parties, like the Communists:

    "A one std. deviation increase in the proportion of the population killed by influenza was associated with an up to 3% increase in the share of the vote won by the national socialist party. This phenomenon is not observed for other parties also considered "extremist", such as the communists, or influenced by deaths due to common diseases, such as tuberculosis. Moreover, while we corroborate evidence by Galofré-Vilà et al. (2019) and show that the amount local governments spend on their inhabitants is correlated with the share of the vote won by extremist parties, we also show that this is not the driver of our results."

    Of course, this is a economic/sociological study so its probably very fuzzy and subjective.  But they seem to have found significant correlation.  I don't think the "mass media" is as significant a factor in these things as it as the psychological tendencies that exist and have existed for centuries.




  45. FDA Pulls Approval for Dozens of Mask Makers in China


  46. De Blasio Strips Control of Virus Tracing From Health Department



  47. China, S. Korea see new virus cases as world lockdowns ease