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Red Badge Wednesday – Trump Says He’s Honoring Us With 1.5M Infections

He saw that it was an ironical thing for him to...You can't make this stuff up.

Well, Stephen Crane did when he wrote "The Red Badge of Courage" in 1895 and we know Trump didn't read it (because it's a book) but apparently one of his writers did and they brilliantly gave Trump a new way to spin the World's highest rate of infection (and these are the non-fictional words of the President of the United States):

"By the way, you know when you say that we lead in cases, that's because we have more testing than anybody else.  So when we have a lot of cases I don't look at that as a bad thing, I look at that as, in a certain respect, as being a good thing because it means our testing is much better.  So I view it as a badge of honour. Really, it's a badge of honour."

When you have to say "really" right after you say something, you KNOW the thing you said sounded like you were joking…  Clearly, to the rational mind, testing doesn't cause infections.  Countries that get the virus under control with less than 1.5M cases tend to do less testing.  As the US infection rate hits 3M, 10M and 20M – I'm sure we'll do a lot more testing while countries that drop to a dozen cases a day will do less testing – BECAUSE THEY DON'T NEED TO!  Holy cow – it amazes me that I actually have to put this kind of stuff in writing but, amazingly, a huge number of people don't understand the logic – including the President. 

“At times he regarded the wounded soldiers in an envious way. He conceived persons with torn bodies to be peculiarly happy. He wished that he, too, had a wound, a red badge of courage.”

“His fingers twined nervously about his rifle. He wished that it was an engine of annihilating power. He felt that he and his companions were being taunted and derided from sincere convictions that they were poor and puny. His knowledge of his inability to take vengeance for it made his rage into a dark and stormy specter, that possessed him and made him dream of abominable cruelties. The tormentors were flies sucking insolently at his blood, and he thought that he would have given his life for a revenge of seeing their faces in pitiful plights.” - The Red Badge of Courage

Like it or not, we are soldiers now in Trump's war on a virus and General Trump has decided, against the advice of his scientists, that the best thing to do is re-open the country – even when we don't have enough Testing or PPE or even Tracking Systems to keep things under control like other countries that have opened up.

As the other officer tossed his fingers toward his cap and wheeling his horse, started away, the general called out to him in a sober voice: "I don't believe many of your mule drivers will get back." The other shouted something in reply. He smiled. With scared faces, the youth and his companion hurried back to the line. These happenings had occupied an incredibly short time, yet the youth felt that in them he had been made aged. New eyes were given to him. And the most startling thing was to learn suddenly that he was very insignificant. The officer spoke of the regiment as if he referred to a broom. Some part of the woods needed sweeping, perhaps, and he merely indicated a broom in a tone properly indifferent to its fate. It was war, no doubt, but it appeared strange.” - The Red Badge of Courage

It's a brilliant pivot by the President, who takes the news of our 1.5 Millionth infection (a clear indication of his complete failure) and attempts to turn it into a positive.  As I noted yesterday, US testing is picking up but still behind the UK, Italy and Germany in terms of how many tests per 1,000 citizens and we also have twice as many infections per 1,000 citizens and yes, more testing will reveal more cases but, until you test people extensively, how do you know the person standing next to you isn't infecting you right now?

“And there were iron laws of tradition and law on four sides. He was in a moving box. As he perceived this fact it occurred to him that he had never wished to come to the war. He had not enlisted of his free will. He had been dragged by the merciless government. And now they were taking him out to be slaughtered.” - The Red Badge of Courage

Jaws COVID-19 — The Daily JAWSThe markets are up again in the Futures with the S&P (/ES) at 2,954 and we made nice money shorting below the 2,950 line yesterday in our Live Member Chat Room – along with the Nasdaq (/NQ) Futures below 9,400.  None of this matters anyway as we're heading into a Holiday Weekend in the US and the beaches are open and the people are out and about – what could possibly go wrong?

Well, plenty of things and that's why we added more hedges to our Short-Term Portfolio (STP) yesterday as we'll have over 100,000 deaths to go with over 1.6M infections by Tuesday, when the markets re-open but I'm sure the Presdent will tell us those people were "heroes", who died so that our Economy could live.  

After all, isn't that what Memorial Day is all about?

 


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  1. Good Morning


  2. Good morning, All!

    It's webinar day! Join Phil at 1pm, here: 

    https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/1616643139679116556


  3. Back to business as usual in Texas

    Evictions and debt collection proceedings can resume in Texas this week, the Texas Supreme Court has ordered. The court had temporarily put both actions on hold to protect people whose livelihood had been affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. Debt collectors can begin garnishing accounts May 18. Eviction hearings can begin on May 19, with orders authorizing evictions allowed to start on May 26. However, tenants covered under a federal moratorium have through Aug. 23. 


  4. Morning,

    Anyone have any idea what caused the dramatic selloff during the last hour yesterday?

    TIA


  5. Opening/Phil – this is rough. I've been talking with my good friend Mark, who is my martial arts coach and owner-operator of a dojo (https://www.facebook.com/ArnottKenpoKarate/). He's received a $73 check from the feds to help him keep going, which covers half a day's rent, he says with gallows humor. He knows of no small business owner along Colorado Blvd in Eagle Rock (part of the city of LA) who has received federal largesse. Many, but not all, members of the dojo are keeping their tuition going, and supporting Mark's online efforts, but it's tough. He says he has enough savings to keep going a month, maybe two. Other dojos around town but not in the city of LA are opening with loads of precautions – small and individual classes, masks, disinfectants, UVC lights after classes, HEPA filters on the AC, students kept spaced well apart. Mark bought a couple of those point-and-shoot thermometers to check students as they enter, and some dojos are requiring everyone fill out a questionnaire every time they come in.

    But Mark has to stay closed; LA especially has strict regs in place with "ambassadors" coming around to check on people – and if they find a business open that isn't supposed to be, they shut off electricity and water.

    It's really a tough time, folks.


  6. Good Morning.


  7. Phil/1.5M

    good morning to you!

    it's hard to believe what you wrote as I have not yet had the time to verify that ANYONE would be proud of the number infected.

    More and more, it appears that the Man can spin ANYTHING ANYWAY he wants.

    it's scary! 
    coming to markets, is there anything left to buy? Saw your FL trade, but I am not that convinced on it (not because of you, but just the industry it's in, reduced consumer spending etc etc)

    Thanks for all your inputs, morning posts..


  8. Way to go texas!


  9. :(


  10. 8800- Before Phil says it I will. This is the ploy-tell everyone everything is on sale and the market has "hit bottom." Buy, but buy and then when we hit those nose bleed levels again, sell it off and take your profits! It works for them over and over and it can work for you too. Have to be attentive but I put on a short term vxx play Wed and and unloaded it yesterday for an easy double. Probably have to reload the SDS since that didn't tank as much, but I have more time. Take a look at those hedges for volume. The short term is getting the action. I had M, F etc and unloaded it all though I made money selling calls etc. So many stocks with dividends are tanking. The longer this mess goes on, the lower things go though by small increments. Hedging does work for sure, but the short term is less stress at least for me.



  11. Pirate,

    Thanks for that interesting perspective. Could be blatant manipulation.  The last hour's action – selloff, rally then more dramatic selloff all on high volume - seemed strange. Ghosts of Jessie Livermore  or JP Morgan with Keynes smiling in the wings.

    I've been using SDS also but not as successfully or as short term as you. Will see what the future holds.


  12. 8800-I read the official reason for market sell off was Moderna trial wasn't as great as everyone thought. 


  13. I've not had much success with sqqq or SDS for some reason but it does take volume to move things. When those FAANG's are flying high like today, the market will be up. Like Phil says it doesn't take much to drive things up. But if you check other stocks they are still moving down. I would say it could be bots, AI or anything, but it sure is consistent. I would be surprised if the market is up tomorrow with a 2 day lag coming.  Azm was up 40 bucks this AM. 


  14. Amzn I meant.


  15. I've been looking at Copa and Azul. I wish they had LEAPs. I'm not sure where on the curve Latin America is with coronavirus, but Avianca went belly up. They were a main competitor on a lot of Copa's routes. Azul is also a well run airline, but again the lack of LEAPs. With November being as far out as options go, I'm not convinced we'll see a recovery in air travel by then. Not sure about Azul but Copa grounded their entire fleet. Azul was trading in the 40s before this hit and still is around $7.65 today. What worries me however is that Brazil may be a couple months behind on the infection curve. On the other hand both of these airlines are likely to survive this and the price on Azul is especially attractive right now. 


  16. 3 day lag coming! Wow! time to reload.


  17. Pirate, cturb,

    Moderna negative rumor was a possible contributor to selloff but heavier hands were likely at work also.

    For the most part, I am hiding by the side of the road with close stops on my short hedges waiting for the real numbers from Fla, Ga and Tx to surface to bring reality back to the market.

    Best to everyone


  18. Singapore sentences drug suspect to death on Zoom


  19. Snow-not sure if your friend's Fed story is tongue in cheek but in contrast, my wife does accounting work for dozens of small businesses who have received "substantial" PPP payments (i.e., low to mid 5 figure). Granted, they are different in that they are mostly small restaurants doing carry out business so they are actually doing as well or better than pre-pandemic volumes. In many cases, funds are going to the employees as bonuses or hazard pay. She did one payroll on Monday where the owner gave instructions to her to double the hourly pay for all his workers. For closed businesses the pain is real and unfortunately, I think, the distress is not fully appreciated by our fearless leaders. 


  20. Quest for ‘super-duper’ missiles pits US against key rivals


  21. AAPL/Phil Thks for the IBM ideas .. half way there already.

    AAPL is my main position. Recently bought back 10 of my short '21 $320c at $35.5 to liberate the long '21 $200s and sold 5 of them at $124.5 to liberate some cash (for the IBM trades) so still have 5 uncovered $200calls. Any suggestions for overall adjustments? Was looking at the $200s for possible cash needs .. 

    5 June'21 $200 calls @ $29

    45 Jan'22 $240 calls @ $48.7

    - 25 Jun'21 $320 calls @ $44

    -20 Jan'22 $350 calls @ $36.2

    -5 Jun'22 $200 puts @ $20.7

    THX


  22. Good morning!

    Draw in oil but net neutral – a lot better than 20M barrel builds though.

    • EIA Petroleum Inventories: Crude -5.0M barrels vs. +1.2M consensus, -0.7M last week.
    • Gasoline +2.8M barrels vs. -2.1M consensus, -3.5M last week.
    • Distillates +3.8M barrels vs. +1.4M consensus, +3.5M last week.
    • Futures (CL1:COM +2.6%)

    I would think /CL will stop at the 5% line:

    Evictions/Stock – Sure, now that we've re-opened for 5 seconds, no one has an excuse not to pay the rent anymore.  Merciless!  

    Yesterday/8800 – I think the rising issues with China and the reality that there is no immediate vaccine took things down a bit but we're right back there this morning.

    Opening/Snow – Yeah, that sucks.  I'm hearing this story from so many people.

    FL/Maya – Well, I figure it's something people actually need at some point.

    Good strategy Pirate.  

    Big Chart – We might need higher levels for the Nas very soon.  Partying like it's 1999.

    Airlines/Dawg – All they need is one vector spread traced to coming off a plane and that whole industry drops 20%.

    Distress/Pstas – So many businesses are hanging by a thread and now are re-opening unprofitably in expectations things will get better but, if we back-slide – that will truly be a disaster.  

    AAPL/Wing – I don't see the point to the $240s or the 5 $200s , the $240s are $87 so just $10 in premium and the $200s are $119 with pretty much no premium.  $300s are $43, with $20 in premium but you take $190,000 + $59,000 off the table and you still have $150,000 worth of spreads (and 1/2 are rollable) so $399,000 vs $500,000 (guessing on the $200s) with the current set so the question is, can you make more than $101,000 (40%) over 18 months with $249,000?  If so, then why tie it up here?

    What I would do (if you have margin and I assume you do with that size position) is do the roll and pocket $190,000 and roll the short June $320s at $9.10 to the July $330s at $8.50 for not much and then, if AAPL goes below $310, sell the July $300s (now $26.50) and put tight stops on the $330s so your longs would be well-covered.  If AAPL goes higher, you just roll the $330s higher and higher each month and your $150,000 spread potential gains $25,000 each time you roll $10 higher – and you STILL have $249,000 sitting on the side! 


  23. Pihl / AAPL  I have the following position and am looking to clear some of it out.  Was thinking of cashing out completely and wait for a pull back , but wanted your thoughts on any way to keep a portion of it or reposition.  At this point I view AAPL as being fully valued at 320 to 340 .

    10X JUN '22 $200 Calls ( 69)

    -10X JUN '22 310 Calls ((14)

    25X Jun '22 210 Calls ( 66)

    -25X Jun '22 320 Calls (23)

    Short 10X Jun '22 150 Put (14).   Short 10x Jun '22 $200 put ( 40)

    Short 15X jun '20 $325 Call (4) 


  24. Phil / WPM  With WPM going ex- dividend tomorrow (5/21) would appreciate your advice on some call spreads that have gone deep ITM. Was planning to hold until expiration but want to avoid assignment.

    Dec '21 31c/37c (+8.38/-5.29) $309 debit

    Jan '21  28/35 (6.75/3.08) $308 debit

    Jan '21  23/32 (8.78/5.30) $3.48 debit

    Form here looks like, do nothing and risk assignment(bad), close the spreads & take the ~20% profit (not so bad), sell or roll up the short calls (not so good), roll spreads up to a shorter expiration (maybe)… Any other suggestions to avoid doing something stupid? 

    Thank you.


  25. And how successful can the re-opening be with 36M people out of jobs now and talks about making the unemployment benefits run longer dead in the water it seems. Are all of these 36M people get back to work as soon as we re-open? It took 8 years to crawl back from the 2008 crisis. Maybe faster this time, but 36M jobs won't re-appear magically. So what will customer spending be with that level of distress – people who go BK because they can't pay their medical bills. The $6T doesn't reach these people after unemployment runs out. They are on their own…


  26. AAPL/Batman – You are, essentially, too deep in the money.  Essentially it's a cash-out and the 35 J2022 $320(ish) short calls are $57 ($200,000) and your long $210(ish) calls are $125 ($437,000) so $237,000 off the table net out of a potential $385,000 if you leave it alone and AAPL stays up.  Do you have something better to do with $237,000 than make $150,000 in two years?  That's a tough one.  I'd buy back the puts to clear a slot for a pullback and move to a more realistic spread like:

    • Buy 30 AAPL June 2022 $300 calls for $67 ($201,000) 
    • Sell 10 AAPL June 2022 $250 puts for $29 ($29,000) 
    • Sell 20 Jan (21) $330 calls for $27 ($54,000) 
    • Sell 10 July $320 calls for $14 ($14,000)

    That's net $104,000 on a $90,000 spread but tons of room to roll and, of course, if AAPL does go down, you can roll it down to a more aggressive position but if AAPL stays flat, you can sell that $97,000 worth of shorts maybe 3 time while you wait and you still have $135,000 in your pocket to play with.  If AAPL goes up, 2022 $400 calls are $28, so that's the spread you would roll to eventually ($300,000).  

    If none of the outcomes sound bad – it's a good trade!

    WPM/Brain – I take it you mean Dec 2020.  The spread is net $4.50 out of a possible $6 so doing nothing should net you 30%, not sure why you are worried about being assigned, only the short caller can assign you and he would make you buy the $46 stock for $37 – that's really not very likely to happen and, even if it did – you should send him a Thank You card!  Assignments are not "bad" – I take it you haven't had many or had one bad experience but they are no big deal at all.  The same goes for the others, they are deep in the money but you don't make your full money off a bull call spread until you get close to expiration.

    Jobs/StJ – The jobs could be there but the businesses won't survive – that's the problem.  The Government is telling businesses to stay 50% closed yet they are cutting off all the unemployment – what do they expect these people to do?  Just that action can cascade us into a Recession as 10% of the population (and their families so 25-30%) are unable to spend – even if they could and they wanted to.  So even the businesses that re-open fully would face far less business than there was.  It's like people who have no concept of Economics are running the policy machine. 

    Impact of US Recession on Hospitals | Visual.ly

    anxiety

    What You Need To Know For The Next Recession

    UK GDP in free-fall, public debt soaring past £2trillion, and millions of Britons unemployed: Grim charts reveal the havoc being wreaked on the economy by coronavirus lockdown

    • The UK is facing the biggest recession in 300 years as the coronavirus pandemic lockdown wreaks havoc 
    • GDP is predicted to nosedive by more than a third this quarter before clawing back some of the ground 
    • Public debt set to top £2trillion this month as the government borrows an estimated £300billion this year

    Hong Kong/Tokyo (CNN Business) Japan's economy has entered recession, and the coronavirus pandemic will likely make things even worse.

    The world's third-largest economy shrank 0.9% in the January-to-March period compared to the prior quarter, according to government data released Monday. While that is slightly better than the 1.2% drop forecast in a Refinitiv poll of analysts, it is still the second straight quarter of declines — meaning Japan has now entered recession.

    A pandemic is an expensive thing to weather. The COVID-19 crisis has already prompted a huge drop in state tax dollars, and seems likely to cost states hundreds of billions of dollars in lost revenue over the upcoming fiscal year. That’s pushed governors to come to the federal government, hat in hand, asking for a federal bailout. But while Democrats in Congress seem eager to oblige — a new stimulus package that narrowly passed the House on May 15 includes nearly $1 trillion for state, local and tribal governments — congressional Republicans and President Trump aren’t sold yet.

    Tom Barkin, a longtime management consulting executive now in charge of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, has been giving a bittersweet diagnosis this month about the U.S. economy: We are at the bottom.

    After 1.1 million unemployment applicationsthousands of store closures and an unprecedented contraction in economic activity, the coronavirus crisis has left North Carolina’s economy weakened and idling.

    And while the data is grim, “the reality is actually worse,” Barkin said at a recent talk with Charlotte executives. More people are unemployed or underemployed than the data show, he said.

    (CNN) Instead of an imagined "tradeoff" between reviving the economy and safeguarding health, President Donald Trump's policies are delivering both a great depression and tens of thousands of deaths at the same time. That's because a tradeoff between economy and health doesn't exist, except in Trump's fantasy. Unless people are confident about their safety in the midst of the pandemic, they will not resume normal life. By allowing a premature reopening, which ensures that the epidemic will rage, Trump most likely has condemned America to economic collapse.

    The epidemic is controllable when government is serious. AustraliaChinaJapanSouth KoreaNew Zealand, and Taiwan, among others, all have kept deaths below 10 per million population, compared with 271 per million in the United States. Those other countries implemented public health policies at national scale; the US did not.

    Goldman Sachs expects India will experience its deepest recession ever after a poor run of data underscored the damaging economic impact of lockdowns in the world’s second-most populous nation.

    Gross domestic product will contract by an annualized 45% in the second quarter from the prior three months, compared with Goldman’s previous forecast of a 20% slump. A stronger rebound of 20% is now seen for the third quarter, while projections for the fourth quarter and first of next year are unchanged at 14% and 6.5%.

    BUYBUYBUY???

    • Trump's top economic adviser, Larry Kudlow, said on Friday morning that the US may not impose sweeping stay-at-home orders during a second wave of COVID-19. 
    • Kudlow said a member of the White House coronavirus task force told him "we won't have to reshut down because first of all we know more; we have more experience. And second of all we are much better equipped with the right tools."

    Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin warned on Tuesday that individuals who reject an offer from their company to return to work after being laid off due to coronavirus are no longer considered eligible to receive federal unemployment benefits.

    I will be so pissed if she isn't the next Vice-President!


  27. Phil / AAPL – thanks I was think this was a cash out as well.  - it's hard to pull off, but taking some gains off the table and waiting a bit for a pull back.  On the reposition the AAPL 300 long calls seem a bit aggressive no this.  Do you think AAPL will be trading above 300 going forward.   I was thinking maybe the 280 or 290 may have more bounciness ?  I know this is more premium but is the trade off on haven more cushion ( 280) worth this?


  28. I'm thinking I'd rather pay less than $10/20 to roll down later when it dips and, if it doesn't dip, then the $300s aren't too aggressive, right?  

    Webinar time!


  29. Greg- cannot connect to webinar. Just spins. I am on old Macbook/safari- some setting needed?


  30. Phil / MU – load the 40 / 55 BCS w/ short puts and cals at 42.5 and 50 …. think I got that right


  31. Jobs / Phil – Remember, these same people had no issue passing a $10T tax cut because it would help the top 0.1% – I mean the economy! But now, adding another $1T to help unemployed people is not acceptable. We adding to the burden for our grandchildren, you see.


  32. pstas/webinar – Sorry for the delay. You shouldn't need anything special, or have to download any additional software. You could always just try refreshing the page again. Sometimes that helps it pop up.

    Keep me posted!


  33. VP- I don’t think Grandpa Joe will pick Warren. Thinking he only wants 1 term and will look for a younger VP who can run for election & re-election (12 years total)


  34. VP – Agreed. None of Joe's donors like Warren, and Joe doesn't need the left at all. The left rolls over when told to.


  35. Tried refresh several times but no go. I can connect on my desktop pc but not on the laptop,


  36. Can you post the link of the buzzfeed pictures of things being done in olther countries to reopen the economy?  Ty.  Very interesting.


  37. Kamala Harris


  38. AAPL/Phil

     

    Trying to be sure about your AAPL note Phil. 

    My long $200c are ’21 ($124) but my $240c are ’22 so about $97, not $87

    I see the Jan ’21 $300s are $43 but figured you would probably mean to roll to the Jun’22 $300s ($65)? Or not?

     

    My $320 June shorts are ’21s ($40) not ’20s ($9), would you still roll those to something – Sep $330s (~$41)?

     

    Thx

    Trying to understand your AAPL note Phil. 

    My $200c are ’21 ($124) but my $240c are ’22 so about $97, not $87

    I see the Jan ’21 $300s are $43 but figured you would probably mean to roll to the Jun’22 $300s ($65)? Or not?

     

     

    My $320 June shorts are ’21 ($45) not ’20($9), would you still (not) roll those to Sep ($40)?

     

    Thx


  39. pstas – That's very strange. They boast windows, mac and linux compatibility, and their service status shows green across the board for GoToWebinar at the moment. Did you get any specific errors or just a spinning ball and it never loads?

    The usual troubleshooting steps I would try would be to clear your browser cache, and then try logging into the webinar again. You could also try a different browser on the same machine. Final step would be to open a ticket with their support. 


  40. Phil / MU From Seminar – MU '22 BCS 40/55 w/ short put at 40. then sell July puts and calls at 42 and 47 ish…


  41. Webinar Trade Idea on MU (from Batman) for the Butterfly Portfolio:

    • Sell 10 MU 2022 $40 puts for $8 ($8,000)
    • Buy 20 MU 2022 $40 calls for $14.75 ($29,500)
    • Sell 20 MU 2022 $55 calls for $8.25 ($16,500) 
    • Sell 10 MU July $50 calls for $2.20 ($2,200) 
    • Sell 10 MU July $42 puts for $2.10 ($2,100) 

    That's net $700 on the $30,000 spread that's $12,000 in the money to start and we're doing a 1/2 sale to generate income which, in the first 2 months out of 18, is a $4,300 return on our $700 investment.  The put sale is aggressive but only net $2,197 in margin and MU is a fantastic company to own for the long-term

    I'm very excited about this trade as the upside potential on the spread alone is $29,700 and if we sell 8 more sets of puts and calls, that's another potential $34,400 – that's a very nice return on a $700 outlay!  

    Pictures/Nom – The link is up in the main post @ https://www.buzzfeed.com/jonmichaelpoff/reopening-in-countries-around-the-world?origin=flipboard


  42. AAPL/Wing – OK, let's try again.  You said you had this:

    • 5 June'21 $200 calls @ $29
    • 45 Jan'22 $240 calls @ $48.7
    • - 25 Jun'21 $320 calls @ $44
    • -20 Jan'22 $350 calls @ $36.2
    • -5 Jun'22 $200 puts @ $20.7

    I said:

    AAPL/Wing – I don't see the point to the $240s or the 5 $200s , the $240s are $87 so just $10 in premium and the $200s are $119 with pretty much no premium.

    So those get cashed @ 391,500 +  $59,500 = $451,000

    (2022) $300s are $43, with $20 in premium

    Buy those instead, 50 would be $215,000 

    but you take $190,000 + $59,000 off the table

    Net $236,000 actually 

    and you still have $150,000 worth of spreads

    The 2022 300s covered by 25 June $320s ($50,000) and 20 2022 $350s ($100,000)

    (and 1/2 are rollable)

    the June 2021 $320s @ $41 can still be rolled to the 2022 $400s at $22 – you just have to figure out how to make $20 between now and then – you have 5 extra longs so you can just sell some short-term calls

     $399,000

    the non-rolled payoff on the new spread 

    vs $500,000 (guessing on the $200s) with the current set so the question is, can you make more than $101,000 (40%) over 18 months with $249,000? If so, then why tie it up here?  



    What I would do (if you have margin and I assume you do with that size position) is do the roll and pocket $190,000 and roll the short June $320s at $9.10 to the July $330s at $8.50 for not much and then, if AAPL goes below $310, sell the July $300s (now $26.50) and put tight stops on the $330s so your longs would be well-covered. If AAPL goes higher, you just roll the $330s higher and higher each month and your $150,000 spread potential gains $25,000 each time you roll $10 higher – and you STILL have $249,000 sitting on the side!

    Remember, you are only rolling to the 2022 $400s if AAPL keeps marching higher.  Any time it goes lower, it wipes out the shorter-term short calls and you sell other calls and maybe roll your longs lower – widening the spread.  


  43. Phil / MU – I think you wanted to sell the '22 $40 Puts at 8 instead – the 50 puts are at 13….?


  44. Phil / MU

    would you mind laying out a slightly less aggressive version of this trade..  Happy to sell puts and calls but if we called this a 7 on the scale, what would be a 4?

    thanks!


  45. Greg-got called away so didn't try any more fixes. Page just spun with no error msg   Will try again next week. Thx. 




  46. 2. Americans who rely on Trump for COVID-19 news have the harshest views of media performance by far