Sign up today for an exclusive discount along with our 30-day GUARANTEE — Love us or leave, with your money back! Click here to become a part of our growing community and learn how to stop gambling with your investments. We will teach you to BE THE HOUSE — Not the Gambler!

Click here to see some testimonials from our members!

Wear a Mask Wednesday – President Trump Finally Sees the Light

99 Days Later, Trump Finally Wears a Face Mask in Public

“"We are asking everybody, when you are not able to socially distance, wear a mask," Trump said. “Whether you like the mask or not, they have an impact."

The US has learned "a great deal" about "the China virus", and unfortunately, things will probably "get worse before they get better" Trump said.

“Some areas of our country are doing very well, others are doing less well,” the President said. “It will probably, unfortunately, get worse before it gets better. Something I don’t like saying about things, but that’s the way it is.”

Yes, that's the way it is.  

It's also the way it was in February, March, April, May and June but better late than never, on July 21st, in taking the most simple precaution against the rampant spread of a virus that has now killed 142,073 Americans (twice as many as died in the 20-year Vietnam war) and infected, by tomorrow, 4M others. Last night was the first "daily" briefing on the virus since April, when Trump decided Dr. Fauci was upstaging him and, even worse, contradicting him.  At the time, the US had less than 1M cases.    

You're a stock trader – how does that chart of US infections look to you?  Almost as good as Tesla but, unlike TSLA, this chart won't suddenly turn around an uninfect people.  In fact, it looks like it's about to have a massive breakout and that's why, finally, the President is scared enough to change his tune – he is presiding over one of the biggest catastrophes in human history and his name, his family name and his "brand' will forever be associated with this disaster.  

And it is a disaster and, even if the stock market refuses to recognize it – you'd better because, like not wearing face masks, ignoring the virus will not protect your portfolio and you PROBABLY won't die – but you might.  You KNOW you might.  So you MIGHT make more money and that would be fun but your portfolio also MIGHT die and, with the virus, we are attempting to avoid dying by staying inside and not having fun for a while – so we can live to have fun another day.  Why would you not do the same with your porfolios?

We have a lot of protection in our Short-Term Portfolio ($350,000) and we have a lot of gain in our Long-Term ($951,000), and we're back to a combined $1.3M, even though the STP has been crushed (so far) by our short position on Tesla, which is up 286% for the year and reports earnings tonight.  Will TSLA take off like the virus and have an even stronger wave or will it crash and burn like — a Tesla?  We will find out this evening. 

Here are the main results expected in Tesla’s Q2 report, compared to consensus estimates compiled by Bloomberg:

  • Revenue: $5.2 billion vs. $6.35 billion Y/Y

  • Adjusted loss per share: 15 cents vs. $1.12 Y/Y

  • GAAP net loss: $285.2 million vs. $408.33 million Y/Y

If the company makes a GAAP profit, they are eligible to be included in the S&P 500 so we'll see if Musk can pull a rabbit out of his hat on this one. Tesla did deliver 90,650 cars in Q2 and that's up from 88,400 in Q1 and the Shanghai GigaFactory came on-line and began making deliveries too and 11,095 (included) model 3s were sold in China.

“To justify the current stock price, we believe one must assume that by 2025 Tesla will set 2.2mn units (making it as large as German luxury brands, while trading at an elevated 30x+ PE [price/earnings] multiple,” Credit Suisse analyst Dan Levy said in a note late last week. In it, Levy raised his price target on shares of Tesla to $1,400 – below the stock’s current level – and maintained a Neutral rating.

With a $300Bn market cap, there is nothing TSLA can do to justify being at 300-1,000x earnings this year, this buying frenzy is on expectations that TSLA's inclusion in the S&P 500 will cause a buying frenzy for the stock and squeeze it even higher but that correlation does not hold up well for stocks that are already widely held and may even be a sell signal for large investors to sell into the increased liquidity.  

We'll find out tonight so stay tuned!

 


Do you know someone who would benefit from this information? We can send your friend a strictly confidential, one-time email telling them about this information. Your privacy and your friend's privacy is your business... no spam! Click here and tell a friend!



Comments (reverse order)


    You must be logged in to make a comment.
    You can sign up for a membership or log in

    Sign up today for an exclusive discount along with our 30-day GUARANTEE — Love us or leave, with your money back! Click here to become a part of our growing community and learn how to stop gambling with your investments. We will teach you to BE THE HOUSE — Not the Gambler!

    Click here to see some testimonials from our members!



  1. Good morning!  

    The Dollar is below 95 so big help to the markets but they aren't biting.  

    Even Canada is kicking our asses now:

    Holy crap! 

    Pay not attention to the VIX behind the curtain!

    Behind The Curtain GIFs - Get the best GIF on GIPHY


  2. Those big fat unemployment insurance checks are coming to an end in 2 days I believe. Now people will have to get up from their couches and start doing what Ivanka suggested – try something new for a job. Borrow a couple of millions from your dad to start a jewelry line, apply for some trademark from China. But do something….

    In the meantime, suggestions from the Trump team for stimulus run from payroll tax holiday (no help for the 20M people out of a job) and capital gain tax holiday (lol). Never miss an opportunity to help the top 1% even amidst a health crisis.


  3. Here the news calls your president now "the 180 degree turn around Trump"  or better I call him the disarranged Clown. One friend sent me a drinking cup yesterday on which was written "I am such an idiot I could even run for president of America.” 
     


  4. LOL!


  5. It's time for a brand new, LIVE, stock and options trading and strategy webinar, with Phil Davis of http://www.PhilStockWorld.com! 7/22/2020 1pm EST
     
    Don't GAMBLE with your Investments! Be the HOUSE, NOT the Gambler!
     

    https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/8469740787326600205


  6. Good Morning.





  7. Every Business Can Be a Subscription Business


  8. Florida’s governor just can’t seem to get it right on coronavirus


  9. First active leak of sea-bed methane discovered in Antarctica


  10. So the LTP is up $50,000 since last Wednesday (now $951,008) so I'd say we're bullish enough for the moment.  We only made two expiration rolls and left it alone otherwise.   The STP was unchanged on Tuesday last week at $405,464 and it's down to $316,319 this morning thanks to TSLA and because it moved $100 up and because the options are gaining vol value into earnings we're short a lot.  

    We're still balanced in favor of the short side at the moment as TSLA can pay us about $400,000 if it crashes and our other hedges are good for about $400,000 so we can pretty much make up the entire LTP if the market crashes and, on a nice pullback – we can make a ridiculous amount of money.

    Of course TSLA could outperform a bad market and we could get double-punched but we're up over 100% for the year and people don't want to cash out, so we'll ride it out and see what happens.  To reduce risk, you could take some or all of the short Sept $1,250s off the table but that's something that should have been done $100 ago.


  11. Is Wells Fargo permitted to buy its own stock? Who in the world needs to own it above $24?


  12. SBSW is a look as it has palladium mining. Anyways it has been on a move lately. Gold and silver too.





  13. The Raid on Remdesivir




  14. How is this not a conflict of interest?  I thought he 'dissociated' himself from his business?  

    Trump’s Request of an Ambassador: Get the British Open for Me


  15. I dunno Pharm – looks like business as usual to me…. :(


  16. 1020….if you know anyone in C'bad that wants a beach house, lemme know.  Selling mine! :)

    GLD…..just ripping higher.  


  17. WFC/Kustomz – I doubt they can buy their own stock this year as I'm sure they got assistance.  

    SBSW/Pirate – All the miners are flying but will it last?  

    Trump/Pharm – Really?  I've given up on that crap already.  No one seems to notice, no one seems to care… 

    I guess that's what makes him such a great criminal – he does so much crap that it's just too much to deal with so he just gets away with tons of things that would get a normal person arrested.  

    12:30 already? 



  18. Sorry, technical difficulties, we're trying to restart a new webinar


  19. Try same link again please.


  20. It says 'Waiting to view Philip Davis's screen.'


  21. Sorry guys, MSFT forced update.  Andy is setting webinar up for 1:30, we will have a new link.


  22. New webinar link for 1:30pm 7/22/2020
     

  23. I put in the Id 416-818-531 and still nothing for Webinar.


  24. I have my own conferencing service that I spun up Amazon Web Services.  We can use that if it's not going to be more than 50 People.  If more I would need to spin up a more powerful server.


  25. Sorry middle is 919 not 818 but still nothing. "waiting for organizer."


  26. I think we have it.  The bottom line is my computer was awaiting a restart.


  27. Pharm – What is the best way to reach you?


  28. The link that Andy posted above takes me to a page to register for a webinar tomorrow 7/23 at 1:30 PM. 


  29. This link works, we're here now for Webinar:  https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/8646944678332394256


  30. 1020 … pharmboy123 at gmail


  31. Hello ALL,

    Please find the new Webinar link entered at 1:19 pm it works perfectly


  32. Sorry about that, it turned out my computer was unhappy about not being rebooted for new MSFT oversight software.


  33. I mean wow, just wow…

    https://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/conway-scolded-states-reopening-too-quickly

    In a breathtaking display of shameless gaslighting, White House senior adviser Kellyanne Conway on Wednesday accused the states plagued with skyrocketing COVID-19 cases of being too hasty with reopening their economies – you know, the thing President Donald Trump desperately pushed them to do for months.


    “Some of these states blew through our criteria, blew through our phases and they opened up some of the industries a little too quickly, like bars,” Conway told reporters outside of the White House Wednesday.

    The administration official argued that governors were the ones who chose to reopen their states and therefore Trump cannot be held responsible for the subsequently disastrous COVID spike consequences.

    Predictable but still shocking!


  34. More fuel for a rally:

    https://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/employment-sharp-decline-census-bureau-shows

    The New York Times reported Wednesday, that new data from the Census Bureau showed that the number of employed people fell by more than 4 million last week — marking the fourth consecutive week of decline. The Times reported that the data, if taken literally, may indicate that job gains that were once touted by President Donal Trump may have been lost since mid-May, when new coronavirus cases surged in parts of the country.

    I think! I mean bad news is good news, right?


  35. TSLA with a profit!

    Tesla said it earned net income of $104 million from April to June, or $0.50 per share, marking the first time the company has posted a profit for four straight quarters, a condition for it to be considered for the stock index of the largest U.S. companies.

    Its shares have gained more than 500% over the past year. Many analysts believe the rally has been fueled in part by expectations of Tesla's imminent inclusion in the stock index, which would unleash a flood of demand for shares.

    Musk on a conference call on Wednesday said Tesla would prioritize growth over profit going forward and focus on making its vehicles more affordable.

    "The thing that bugs me most right now is that our cars are not affordable enough, we need to fix that," Musk said on the call. "I think we just want to be like slightly profitable and maximize growth and make the cars as affordable as possible."

    Tesla on Wednesday affirmed its goal to deliver at least half a million vehicles by the end of 2020 despite production interruptions, including the shutting of its California factory for nearly six weeks of the quarter on orders of local authorities. The company delivered more than 90,000 vehicles in the second quarter, surpassing analyst expectations.

     

    Tesla's second-quarter revenue fell to $6.04 billion from $6.35 billion a year earlier, but surpassed analyst expectations for revenue of $5.37 billion, according to IBES data from Refinitiv.

    Tesla reported $5.18 billion in second-quarter automotive revenue, but its share of income from regulatory credits – payments the company receives from other carmakers to offset emissions – increased to $428 million from $354 million in the first quarter.

    There's the profits.

    The company said higher income from those regulatory credits in combination with temporary employee salary cuts during the pandemic and $48 million in deferred revenue from its yet-to-be-released self-driving feature offset the cost of factory shutdowns.

    Musk on Tuesday qualified for a payout worth an unprecedented $2.1 billion, his second jackpot since May from the electric car maker following its massive stock surge.