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Fatal Thursday – Virus Deaths in the US Hit a New One-Day Record!

144,000 infections, 1,600 deaths – yesterday!

I hate to harp on the virus but, come on people, this is serious!  The chart on the right just two weeks ago projected 1,100 deaths just 3 weeks ago but we're 50% above that already.  A range of factors has contributed to the recent surge in infections, hospitalizations and deaths, say epidemiologists and public-health officials. Inconsistent messaging on masks and other preventive measures has hindered their effectiveness, they say, and pandemic fatigue has increased some people’s willingness to take risks.

Steve Bell on Trump's approach to coronavirus and the economy - cartoon |  Opinion | The GuardianWe may not be able to survive another 2 months of Donald Trump at this rate as we could be well over 200,000 people being infected per day by January 20th – 1.4M people per week, 6M people per month and our hospitals are already overwhelmed with new cases and that can lead to many more deaths than the current projection of 103,500 Americans who will die on the altar of Donald Trump in the 69 days (hopefully) he has left in power.  

At this rate of acceleration of death, if policy doesn't change, we are on a path to 3,000 people per day dropping dead by January 20th.  At what point do you think the market might notice that?  Hard to have growth projections for your business when 1M of your potential customers are going to die in the year ahead.  Of course we assume President Biden will change policy right away but, as I noted in the Webinar yesterday, that too will have economic consequences.  The economic consequences can't be escaped at this point - they are behind doors number 1, 2 AND 3.

The Tax Impact Of The Long-Term Capital Gains Bump ZoneWith just two weeks until Thanksgiving (and Black Friday), that's another looming disaster we have to look forward to so I'd be VERY CAREFUL in the weeks ahead.  The other major issue that's going to be slamming the markets is President Biden is very likely to raise taxes on the wealthy and that includes Capital Gains.  With the market at record highs, the cost or NOT cashing in by December 31st could mean 5, 10, even 20% of your profits so, unless you project the market up substantially more than 10% in 2021 – there's really no point to riskng it at this stage.

How does the corporate income tax work? | Tax Policy CenterAnother thing that will likely change under President Biden is Corporate Income because, under President Trump, Corporate Tax Rates were cut 50% and those are certain to be rolled back and that's going to have a substantial impact on earnings – as will the end of stimulus in a still-weak economy – a very likely scenario for 2021.  Stimulus will end beause it has to – our $19Tn economy is $27.2Tn (143%) in debt and the next stimulus bill will put us well into $30Tn (157%) next year.  

This year's budget deficit is going to come in around $4Tn, that's 20% of our GDP and our GDP is still down over 10%!  In fact, remember when they used to tell you Consumer Spending was 60% of the economy and the rest was Government and Corporate Spending?  Now it's gone the other way and Government Spending has passed $10 TRILLION DOLLARS this year already – over 50% of our GDP!  Socialism?  You're soaking in it

They say  the only things that are certain are death and taxes – 2021 is likely to give us plenty of both!

At least we're able to have some fun fiddling while Rome burns.  Yesterday's Oil (/CL) Futures short paid off very well with a $2,600 gain by the time we ended the trade during our Live Trading Webinar.   This morning we're recovering back to the bounce line at $42 and our prediction is that fails and we fall below $41 this time we can short that $42 line today with tight stops above – keeping in mind there's a very volatile inventory report at 11am.  If we break over $42, then back to repeat yesterday's plan.

Oil Extends Gains on Signs OPEC+ Edging Toward Keeping Cuts.

OPEC Deepens Forecast for Drop in Global Oil Demand.

The market is ‘being very cavalier’ about risks the U.S. faces, Jim Cramer says.

‘Unprecedented’ selloff in hot-streak stocks could become ‘self-fulfilling prophecy,’ says quant who warned of Monday’s rotation.

U.S. prepares for worst four months of the pandemic as it stares down the ‘darkest’ days yet.

Growth-Stock Scare Looking Like a False Alarm to Options Market.

N.Y. Sets Curfew for Restaurants, Bars, Gyms as Covid-19 Cases Rise.

U.K. Steps Up Talks With Industry as Brexit Disruption Closes In.

Biden Covid advisor says U.S. lockdown of 4 to 6 weeks could control pandemic and revive economy.

JPMorgan Finds No Benefits From COVID Lockdowns. 

Goldman Spots An "Early Indicator" US Economy Is Rolling Over Due To Covid Resurgence 

Once "Immune" To The Pandemic, The Financial Industry Is About To Face A Wave Of Layoffs.

17 People Were Shot In Chicago On Monday Alone.

That last one is interesting as Conservatives are outraged that 17 people were shot in Chicago while silent about 1,600 people who died of Covid the same day.  I don't even understand how a person can keep that kind of double-standard in their heads….

484 people in Illinois died of Covid last week, that's 69 people per day.  In Georgia, where we have the election for control of the Senate on January 5th, 100 people per day are dying of Covid and 1,637 people per day are becomming infected – maybe we should just give them guns to enforce social distancing?  Instead we're going to hold rallies, right?  

Be careful out there….


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  1. Phil seeing your outcry every day will not help very much. As long as one does not get rid of this lunatic clown, who does not even permit Biden to help with the health department , this will multiply like the Californian wild fires. 
    The virus is transmitted by PEOPLE , not by flowers or fresh air. Rules are still the same: NO contact to other people, masks, 2 meter distance to the other person, hygiene, washing of hands, sounds simple enough. Forming crowds and massive gatherings is the greatest seed for the virus.  Biden sure will have the right ideas to apply this, but you have a clown, who rules the country, so as long as they do not have enough intelligence to lock the clown away, this just will go on like wild fire. SIMPLE. I think at this point to safe peoples life, it is more important to look him away than the vaccine. I think wise man Putin made a very good suggestion the other day!!!

  2. This case is extreme serious, by the man’s action, his is provoking thousands of people to die.
    Look at Europe they all trying to do a balancing a lock down act between industries and keeping people alive.

    Lock downs are hard but most of us understand the need.

  3. Good Morning.

  4. yodi-well said. However for those of us who saw this disaster coming and NEVER voted for the "clown" it is equally terrifying and frustrating. The MAJORITY of Americans never voted for him in the first place. Then when the Dems tried to get rid of him, the repuke's blocked it. Now 70% of our immediate family has the virus or are in recovery. Do any of repuke's care? NO. As Carlin said, "they are only out for themselves." No truer words were spoken.

  5. How Pfizer Will Distribute Its Covid-19 Vaccine

  6. pirateinvestor,

    In deed for the outside world it is hard to understand how many irresponsible people there are in the US government.

  7. I am not sure if this comes through in the US, in Germany all businesses which have to close now in Nov., receiving a refund of 75% of their turn over from Nov. 2019.

  8. How amusing this intelligence briefings controversy is when you know the contents all yell TRUMP!!!


  9. Unfortunately we are at risk at this time from our adversary's to take advantage of this weak position we are caught in with no sane leadership in sight. The few dtumpy signs that were out have disappeared. Too much to hope that MAYBE people are finally realizing the dire ramifications of their choices.

  10. Here is the link to yesterday's webinar

  11. Well we see here on TV people with rapid firing rifles intimidating voters, they would have been looked away here in the first place. They do not have a screw lose no their whole brain is F up.

  12. Phil

    CARR  do you think there is a trade

    With cov


  13. wti is plus 3.7 for crude but minus 12 net

  14. Good morning!

    As expected, oil inventory did not go well:

    • EIA Petroleum Inventories: Crude +4.3M barrels vs. -0.9M consensus, -8.0M last week.
    • EIA Gasoline -2.3M barrels vs. -0.3M consensus, +1.5M last week.
    • EIA Distillates -5.4M barrels vs. -1.9M consensus -1.6M last week.
    • Futures (CL1:COM +0.5%)

    Refund/Yodi – That's a smart way to do it.

    CARR/CQ – Not sure what you're looking for there.  Sales were flat the last 3 years, earnings were down a lot last year and way down this year.  Q3 was nice but they are up 200% since April so what's the plan – chasing?  

    /RB is coming down nicely, /CL should follow down to $41 – as predicted by the 5% Rule…

  15. Military wary that shakeup could upend its apolitical nature

  16. BTC ATH inbound at this time

  17. biodieselchris

    BTC ATH inbound at this time. Can you translate this in English for me TIA

  18. ETHE – what do you look at on this one, BDC? Just the chart and premium over ETH itself, or are there other factors intrinsic to ETHE that you consider? I'm long a little from about $53.

  19. yodi / Bitcoin all time high soon (obviously, a "forward looking statement")

    Phil / taxes – Biden will need the senate to pass tax relief, so it's dead on arrival. Capital gains stays at 15% (20% over 496,600 MFJ).

  20. ETHE is simply a total scam. The institution (Grayscale) holds ~0.094 ETH (actual ethereum) per share, or ~ $42 right now for a NAV. The premium goes anywhere form 10% to 500%. That's the scam part… however! it's indeed an open market scam, so anyone can participate. I'd say wait for another run up to >100% premium and dump. 

  21. biodieselchris

    Thanks for the English.

  22. Good to hear from you BioD

  23. Oil is fun today.

    Now we'll see if $40 holds.  According to 5% Rule, it should not.

    Indexes taking a hit too – such fun. 

    Taxes/BDC – Not if they twist arms.  Only need one Senator to break down.  

  24. Thanks BDC. Hoping for a good run in ETH (and ETHE) before long. 

  25. I'm wrapping my mind around this DeFi stuff. So far I've been using, but only a few hundred dollars. The 8-12% yields are phenomenal compared to banks, bonds, CD's and treasuries. BUT, of course, you have to trust Nexo. They say they're "insured" whatever that really means.

  26. BDC – I remember years ago you said that Donald Trump was going to win the 2016 election and that it would galvanize the country to getting our shit together.  In many ways, I think you called it right.  He won, was a disaster, and a lot of people have come to the election table that never would have otherwise.  My wife, the godfather of my daughter, and one of my good friends all voted for the first time last week.  I'm curious how you feel about the forecast you made before our run with the Donald.

  27. Economic Risks Are High as Chances for Quick Stimulus Narrow