Sign up today for an exclusive discount along with our 30-day GUARANTEE — Love us or leave, with your money back! Click here to become a part of our growing community and learn how to stop gambling with your investments. We will teach you to BE THE HOUSE — Not the Gambler!

Click here to see some testimonials from our members!

2020 Elections: A Quick Note On Pennsylvania

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

PA

A Quick Note on Pennsylvania election by Greg Presseau


Q3 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

The race is expectedly much closer than the polls/betting markets had thought. We got TX, FL and OH right, narrowly missed MN and WI. Pennsylvania is the wildcard right now. There are about 36% of the votes yet to be counted. I wanted to develop a ‘profile’ of the mail in voters and found the below info:

PA

Source: https://electionupdates.caltech.edu/2020/03/20/some-demographics-on-voting-by-mail/

The authors were unable to reconcile all of the data but using the data available, we see the demographic as follows:

PA

Next, if we assume that older voters lean toward Biden and then, in general, if you’re using a mail in vote this year, you’re more afraid of covid, you vote Biden as well. If those assumptions are correct, we see:

PA

Pennsylvania Polls

If the above is correct Biden marginally wins Pennsylvania. I think the Trump voter is much more likely to make it to the polls and therefore has already been counted but we’ll find out…

Short dated puts on the S&P might be a decent play…

Further updating this with the same profile of mail in voters for states that are still counting we see:

PA

PA

Biden could still win if he loses Georgia and Pennsylvania but needs to win all other states. It’s down to a tiny margin in any event.

Mounting Covid Cases

This uncertainty on who wins probably drags on for days (weeks!?) and we’ll have mounting Covid cases in the meantime. Trendless, choppy markets may be here for a while. One thing that should be clear is stronger Asian currencies as they have seemingly contained Covid while the West will be locking down/trying to figure out leadership. That should be supportive ag commodities and possibly, precious metals.

State Summary:

PA

The post 2020 Elections: A Quick Note On Pennsylvania appeared first on ValueWalk.

Sign up for ValueWalk’s free newsletter here.


Do you know someone who would benefit from this information? We can send your friend a strictly confidential, one-time email telling them about this information. Your privacy and your friend's privacy is your business... no spam! Click here and tell a friend!





You must be logged in to make a comment.
You can sign up for a membership or get a FREE Daily News membership or log in

Sign up today for an exclusive discount along with our 30-day GUARANTEE — Love us or leave, with your money back! Click here to become a part of our growing community and learn how to stop gambling with your investments. We will teach you to BE THE HOUSE — Not the Gambler!

Click here to see some testimonials from our members!