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Philstockworld November Portfolio Review

Image result for one million dollars animated gif$1,486,878!

Although that's down a bit from our October Portfolio Review, that's only because we cashed out the old Short-Term Portfolio back on October 28th and we didn't carry the gains forward due to a discrepancy arising from the Tesla (TSLA) split so we reset the STP to $200,000 from $620,909 so really, we've made incredible gains in the last month as the LTP was only $974,283 on the day we re-set – as we got heavily bullish during that mini-crash.

As is has been all year, our timing was pretty perfect and the LTP has rocketed back from $974,283 to $1,295,033 as of Tuesday's review, which is up $320,750 (33%) in 33 days as the S&P flew back from 3,250 to 3,600 (up 10.7%).  Of course that's ridiculous and of course we were lucky to time it perfectly so OF COURSE we took the money and ran on Tuesday, cashing in 40% of our LTP positions – enough is enough!  

As the great stock trader, Kenny Rogers tells us:

You've got to know when to hold 'em

Know when to fold 'em

Know when to walk away

And know when to run

You never count your money

When you're sittin' at the table

There'll be time enough for countin'

When the dealin's done

S&P 3,600 is certainly enough and certainly too much to risk as we're up more than 50% in 4 years (thank you, Mr. Trump – now LEAVE!) and that's more than double the usual 8% you can expect to gain annually and maybe it will keep going and maybe it won't but we're very confident we can make more money if the bull cycle continues so why risk the holidays when we can lock in these kinds of gains? 

With that logic, we'll be taking a look at our other Member Portfolios as we're only at S&P 3,576 this morning, still shorting the Nasdaq (/NQ) below the 12,000 line (now 12,005) as well as the 3,600 line on the S&P Futures (/ES).  I'm not going to get into it again – let's just say I don't trust the market or the economy enough to stay too bullish between now and Inauguration Day (Jan 20th).

Earnings Portfoliol Review: $202,148 is up 102% for the year and up 15% since our last review as we were not as aggressive as our LTP.  The earnings portfolio is about 50% CASH!!! already and it's got a built-in hedge (SQQQ).  Since last month, we added short calls on SBUX, which aren't going well and a long play on PETS, which is going well.  

  • SBUX – Looks like we'll have to roll it.  The April $95s are $8 so I'm not worried as I really don't think they break $100.
  • HRB – Happy to let those ride.  Biden should be good for tax preparers.  
  • IRBT – Net $50,000 out of a potential $70,000.  I like IRBT enough to leave it on but we stop out if they fail to hold $75.

  • PETS – New trade and we couldn't fill the short puts so we just have the bull spread so we're not worried if they dip as we wanted to sell puts anyway.  Great for a new trade – I think this is a great bottom for them.
  • ACB – Really popped for a bit but came back down.  I still like them going forward.  

  • GILD – Washed out on Covid treatments or vaccines but it's a good, solid company.  If it goes lower I'm happy to DD and keep going.
  • HBI – Still cheap at net $2,525 on the $10,000 spread and all HBI has to do is hit $15 in a year to make $7,475 (296%).  Aren't options fun?

  • INTC – One of my favorite bargain stocks, could be our 2021 Trade of the Year, in fact.  
  • M – Another huge bargain but getting away from us now.  In fact, we'll have to cover soon.

  • SQQQ – It's a $200,000 hedge that's $50,000 in the money at net $20,750 – what a FANTASTIC hedge this is!  Gives us $180,000 of downside protection in a $200,000 portfolio for $20,750.  Aren't options fun?
  • WBA – Oh wait, THIS could be our stock of the year in 2021.  Where will people be vaccinated?  That's the burning question.  If it's WBA and CVS, who already vaccinate about 20M people each per year (so they have the logical infrastructure to mass-distribute a vaccine – who else has that in place?).  

So look at that, as sour as I am on the markets, these positions are too good to cut.  They are also very well-hedged so not much to do but sit back and enjoy the holidays with this portfolio.  

Dividend Portfolio Review:  We haven't done a full review since September 18th and our Dividend Portfolio was only at 6.7% at the time so it's been a good couple of months as now we are up 29.4% for the year.  That's right on track for our 20-30% annual goal and REALLY good for our first year as we haven't even had a chance to re-invest our earnings yet.  

  • GILD – Don't mind owning them for net $46.75 so no worries.  
  • EPD – Well over our target.
  • ET – On track.
  • IVZ – Brand new but took off fast.  

  • MO – If it wasn't a small entry, I would pull the plug but, as it is, I won't mind doubling down if the drop.  
  • SPG – Love them for next year.
  • TWO – Well in the money.
  • CHL – $30 is around our basis and we'll just see if they bounce back.

  • F – Nicely in the money.
  • M – Back on track.  Nonetheless, we pre-rolled to the short 2023 $10 puts and now the 2022 $8 puts are no longer negative so let's cash them out so we don't have too much downside risk.
  • PETS – New trade, still good for a new one.
  • SIG – Yet another deep value table-banger takges off.  So glad we went aggressive on them but time to cover.  Let's sell 20 of the 2023 $30 calls for $12.50 ($25,000) and we'll be in what's left of the spread for a net credit and hopefully they start paying dividends again!  

  • SKT – You know how much I love these guys.  
  • T – Even better as a new trade.  I still have faith with 5G and all.

Like our Butterfly Portfolio, the Dividend Portfolio is mostly self-covering and, of course, protected by the STP, so we're not too worried.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

IN PROGRESS

 

 


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  1. Good Morning.



  2. Good morning! 

    Here’s what you need to know:

    Friggin' New York Times with all their truthiness…

    From Michigan:

    Sure enough, by midsemester, coronavirus clusters were erupting on and off campus: 11 positive tests in a week in the athletic department; 13 more tied to two restaurants near campus; 17 in one dormitory. In October, county health authorities ordered the whole campus to shelter in place, citing “social gatherings” on or near campus as a major source of infections.

    Now, after more than 2,540 Covid-19 cases among students and staff, the university is shifting course drastically. It has asked students not to come back to campus in January unless they have to. Each dorm room will hold only one person, forcing thousands of students to stay home or find off-campus housing. Instruction will be remote in 90 percent of classes. Students who violate certain health rules will face tougher sanctions, including automatic probation, and coronavirus tests will be mandatory for anyone coming to campus.

    “One thing I’ve learned in this Covid semester is that every decision you make that makes one subset of people happy will make a different subset of people unhappy,” said the school’s president, Mark Schlissel, a physician, who has been a focus of criticism all year and is being pummeled again with complaints about the school’s new policies.

    “What’s changed is the national context,” he said. “The outbreak is blossoming again all over the country, including in our state.”

    That's the reality.  Back to school is turning into the disaster we thought it would be and imagine the anxiety level as cold and flu season heats up with people freaking out every time they cough or sneeze (or someone around them coughs or sneezes).  This shit is really going to hit the fan.

    Airlifts and Body Bags. Inside the French Hospital Hit Hardest by Covid-19.

    U.S. Infections Set Another Daily Record

    Fannie, Freddie Overseer Looks to End Federal Control Before Trump Leaves

    Trump Legal Team Claims Broad Conspiracy to Manipulate Election

    Macy’s CEO to States: Don’t Close Us Down Again

    Two Fed Officials Voice Concern on Economy as Virus Cases Surge

    Getting a nice dip already in the Futures – don't be greedy.  


  3. well that was a nice upbeat Good Morning


  4. I think we'll need a larger fan…..


  5. 2% wealth tax for those with over 2.5M in assets in Argentina. Seems to be moving right along.

    https://www.batimes.com.ar/news/economy/chamber-of-deputies-approves-governments-wealth-tax-bill.phtml


  6. And I wonder if that wealth tax has been helping to drive bitcoin higher. I'm sure there's been a mad scramble to hide assets there.


  7. Don't worry though, Trump will still find time to go golfing this weekend in the midst of his super busy schedule!

    One of my Canadian friends told me that Trump should be prosecuted for crime against humanity at this stage! Right now, it's basically Nero, golfing while the country is burning down. And plenty of accomplices in Congress!


  8. Assets/Ati – Good point.  Of course our 10% devaluation of the Dollar is far more effective than a wealth tax.  Especially since the rich get to make up for it both by playing the markets AND by paying the poor suckers who work for us devalued currency.  Talk about a win-win!

    What Do You Have To Lose Donald Trump GIF by Election 2016 - Find & Share  on GIPHY

    America Is on Track to Hit a COVID-19 Death Record - The Atlantic

    Because the case-fatality rate has stayed fixed for so long and there are now so many reported cases, predicting the virus’s death toll in the near term has become a matter of brutal arithmetic: 150,000 cases a day, times 1.5 percent, will lead to 2,250 daily deaths. In the spring, the seven-day average of daily deaths rose to its highest point ever on April 21, when it reached 2,116 deaths. With cases rising as fast as they are, the U.S. could cross the threshold of 2,000 daily deaths within a month. Without a miraculous improvement in care, the United States is about to face the darkest period of the pandemic so far.

    A case of COVID-19 can be confirmed only by a polymerase chain reaction, or PCR, test—the type of test that laboratories have offered since the spring. But in the early months of the pandemic, the U.S. failed to ramp up testing as the virus spread, so only a small percentage of sick people were tested. In the spring, an enormous outbreak hit the New York metro area, infecting perhaps 20 percent of all New Yorkers, more than 1.6 million people. But up through mid-May, as the initial outbreak wound down, fewer than 200,000 cases were confirmed with PCR tests. (Almost 16,000 people had died in New York City alone by then.)

    Those shortcomings meant that the denominator in the pandemic’s key equation—deaths divided by cases—was far too small at first, inflating the death rate. As more testing capacity became available through the year, the U.S. started to detect more infections. States now report 1.5 million tests a day instead of 150,000 tests a day, as they did for much of April. Even now, though, no one is quite sure how many people have been infected; Bedford’s ballpark figure is that three out of four infections still go unconfirmed. (Other estimates are even higher.)

     

    Case numbers have nearly quadrupled since late September, when roughly 700 people a day were dying. If 1.8 percent of confirmed cases are translating into recorded deaths 22 days later, the U.S. is about to enter some extremely harrowing days. Every 100,000 cases would mean roughly 1,800 dead Americans a few weeks later.

     

    “I expect the U.S. to be reporting over 2,000 deaths per day in three weeks’ time,” Bedford concluded. “Importantly, this doesn’t assume any further increases in circulation and is essentially ‘baked into’ currently reported cases and represents conditions that take time to resolve and to be reported.”

    And this analysis does not factor in new dynamics that could make outcomes worse, such as the possibility that local hospital systems collapse, which many health-care workers and experts are warning about. Already, more than 20 percent of hospitals are anticipating a staff shortage this week—and the Mayo Clinic reported that 900 of its workers had tested positive in the past two weeks. Nor does the analysis incorporate the possibility of an overburdened testing system becoming unable to complete as many tests as necessary, which would depress case counts. Either of these factors could push or skew the expected death rate even higher.

    Winner Meme GIFs | Tenor


  9. And wait until we see the spike after Thanksgiving! We'll have 3000 deaths each day before end of December. Another 150k death before Biden is sworn in. But leaving a disaster behind seems to be the plan now. That and confirming judges of course. Party over country!


  10. See, now we get to short /NQ again when it crosses back under 12,000 – the gift that keeps on giving.


  11. We are currently testing the herd immunity scenario and as someone pointed out, even with a 2% mortality rate, it's about 6M deaths by the time we are done. Not counting the additional deaths due to our healthcare system collapsing! 

    And the reason HHS is not sharing data with the Biden team is simply because they have no plan in place to deliver the 600M does of vaccine needed to immunize the entire country. Think about the fact that it took 9 months to test 100M people! 


  12. I thought I read that Sweden tried the herd immunity path and it failed.  They are opting for masks & distancing now as round 2 starts in Europe.


  13. Phil/WBA

    I have some uncovered WBA Jan 2022 35 calls @ 8.29 (I rolled down from a previous position) — I sold some 50 calls last week on the spike @ 3.50 – they are now currently around 1.50.  – is it wise to take the quick profit on those and buy them back?  And hope to sell more calls later?   I have 13 longs and sold only the 4 short.

     

    Thanks









  14. 9 months/StJ – Very good point.  People just can't comprehend large numbers.  Then you have to factor in what I'd say is 15-20 anti-vax people that could upend the whole process since they can tie up distribution in courts.  I think you should require people to show they've been vaccinated in order to go into indoor places with the rest of the public.  No malls, movies, bowling… they'll cave very quickly!  

    Sweden/EMike – Disaster.  

    STOCKHOLM — Sweden, whose unorthodox pandemic strategy garnered global attention, has registered 15,084 new coronavirus cases since Friday, Health Agency statistics showed on Tuesday.

    The number comes after Sweden hit a new daily record of 5,990 new cases last Friday, with the number of people testing positive rising by about 50 per cent a week.

    Sweden’s total number of cases stands at 177,355, while deaths are at 6,225, according to the World Health Organization.

    While the country’s death rate per capita is lower than in Spain and Britain, it is more than 10 times higher than neighbouring Norway and almost five times higher than in Denmark.

    In an open letter Friday, 27 Swedish scientists and doctors warned the country could soon approach the sort of numbers in intensive care seen in the spring and called on party leaders to override the Health Agency and introduce tougher restrictions.

    Ignoring science to try out insane right-wing theories on large populations — BRILLIANT!

    Best Guinness Brilliant GIFs | Gfycat

    WBA/Jeff – Down and down they go.  CVS too.  Yes, I'd take a quick $2 off the table and you'll sell those calls again for $3.50 or you'll sell the 2023 $35 calls for $7.50 and roll the 2022 $35 calls ($6) to the 2020 $25 calls at $13.25 which drops you to the net $10 spread for net $7 (ish) and you can sell 1/2 the $32.50 puts (now $6) to knock that down too but only if they go lower, of course.  


  15. Thanks Phil/WBA

     

    How about this one???  I have 10 LB 12.5/22.5 BCS  -(yay) — but back when they were trading at 17 I sold 2 naked 22.5 calls to try and do a quarterly scalp — I have been rolling them ever since — to 30's and now finally to 3 naked 2022 40's.  I sold the 3 naked 40's for 5.25 when LB was at 30.  So far I am upside down about 3K total with all the rolls so my my net 10K spread only has a 5K value even though it miles in the money and I can get 8000 for the 10 BCS.

    Any advice?  Can LB keep going??


  16. Pharmboy?

    Any new ARNA developments?  Just curious.


  17. Bought AAL Jan 20 2023 20.0 calls (3.20) and UAL Mar 19 2021 45.0 calls (3.50). Rebound/pent-up demand play


  18. Trump announces Drug pricing control.  Phill, will this affect PFE, WBA, CVS, etc? Also your thoughts on Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae with the oversight being removed.  Thanks.


  19. " I think you should require people to show they've been vaccinated in order to go into indoor places with the rest of the public.  No malls, movies, bowling… they'll cave very quickly! " 

    Or who have all ready had the virus and recovered.   I know 4 people who have recovered from Covid and they are walking around like they are Superman.  One told me he is the safest person I could associate with.


  20. I'm looking at LPX when its closer to $30.  WSJ said to day lumber prices should remain strong and home building busy through 2021.  One of their competitors, Norbord,  was bought out yesterday.  LPX has nice cash on hand and recently expanded their share repurchase  program. 


  21. Superman – More like Super Dorks…. ;)


  22. Vaccination / Phil – I'll go further. Unless you have a valid medical exemption, if you have not been vaccinated and you get Covid, the hospital bill is on you! And whoever you have infected!


  23. Stockbern-I have read somewhere that you can get covid more than once, but have never heard any scientific evidence of this. That is why I was questioning the vaccine. Why wouldn't you have immunity if you've recovered? If the virus mutates maybe you get the next version? That's what I hate about this whole thing.. More questions than answers.


  24. LQDA - Stick stick, Poke poke… (checking for signs of life) Poke poke….. :(


  25. Interesting finish for an QPEX day. Anti-stick!


  26. LB/Jeff – Really flying now.   Nothing wrong with rolling along and, at this point, you can cash in your 10 2022??? $12.50 calls for $28 ($28,000) and buy 20 2023 $30 ($17)/45 ($11.25) bull call spreads for $6.75 ($13,000) and that puts $15,000 in your pocket, which is $5,000 more than you would have made on the spread and then you can sell 5 2023 $30 puts for $8 ($4,000) and spend that to roll the 10 short 2022 $22.50 calls at $19.65 ($19,650) to 2022 $35 calls at $12 ($12,000).  So you are still putting $11,350 in your pocket and you have 20 of the 2023 $30/45 spreads with $45,000 potential, 1/2 covered by 10 of the short 2022 $35s that are 2/3 premium and 3 of the 2022 $40s that are all premium offset by 5 of the short 2023 $30 puts.   

    If it keeps going up, just buy another long spread for net $6.75 that pays $12.50 and you either keep doubling your money or there's a pullback and you can clean up the mess.

    Drugs/Rookie – I think Trump is planning on taking a lot of drugs when he leaves office.  Would have to research how much impact that will have on their earnings.  

    Safe/Stock – That still remains to be seen.

    LPX/Stock – Nice, steady company.

    Bill/s/StJ – Sounds fair to me.  I'm sure your insurance company would agree.  

    Not the best finish but great for the /NQ shorts!  

    That's what I mean by good risk/reward ratios – the risk of having to stop out above 12,000 is much less than the potential reward of a normal pullback – which we've now collected 4 times this week!  

    Have a great weekend, 

    - Phil


  27.  require people to show they've been vaccinated

    Hmmm, Imagine the possibilities. 


  28. Trump tries to leverage power of office to subvert Biden win





  29. Requirements/Pstas – Either way it's right-wing fanatics causing innocent old men to die….  wink


  30. pstas – No matter to me, as long as it's the deniers that die…. :)


  31. Hi, I'm a new member. can I get any help/directions on setting up a new portfolio? 




  32. Guitar Center is filing for bankruptcy


  33. Opinion: Judge’s devastating question for team Trump