PhilStockWorld September Portfolio Review – Part 2

28
1

4,480.

That's the strong bounce line on the S&P 500 and we've been failing it all week and now we're failing it FOR the week and that's a big negative on the weekly charts.  We predicted that we would fail the strong bounce line on Monday, when it was 4,490 (we made a lower low on Wednesday, which lowered the bar for a bounce) based on the Fundamental Outlook for the week and so far, so right, I suppose.  

I'm feeling good about going to CASH!!! last month, September has not been kind and we've been finding some good bargains along the way to refresh our portfolios.  Our slimmed-down LTP still made $44,533 for the month but those gains were largely offset by our too-bearish (for now) STP, which we adjusted yesterday.  Of course, we didn't adjust it to be less bearish – a bit more so, if anything.

Our defense if the market goes higher will be to buy more longs.  There are plenty of bargains out there as some stocks have come down quite a bit like Las Vegas Sands (LVS), which is back in the realm of reality now at $37.50, which is $28.66Bn in market cap and, before Covid, LVS was making $2.5Bn per year.  I'm not suggesting we race right into this one (we just bought BYD) because China has changed the rules in Macau and, of course, Covid – but it's a good example of a stock we wouldn't have bought because it was way too high that has now become attractive again. 

There are always bargains to be had – if you are patient!  

Money Talk Portfolio Review:  Patience is what our Money Talk Portfo is all about, as we only trade it when we're on the show – roughly once per quarter.  We can't touch it otherwise so the picks have to be ROCK SOLID and we made a few changes in our last cycl – when I was on the show on September 1st (it taped on Aug 31st).  We cashed out our winning positions on IBM and SKT and we added HPQ and the afore-mentioned BYD.  The portfolio is down $962 for the month at $194,944 but that's up a healthy 94.9% and, best of all, we have $167,589 of lovely, lovely CASH!!!

  • BYD – Brand new trade from last time and no action so still a chance to grab this $40,000 spread for net $7,362.

  • GOLD – We widened this spread by dropping the long calls and GOLD has taken a turn for the worst but it's a great inflation hedge and we're still $7,500 in the money on this net $2,950 spread that has the potential to pay $30,000 at $27, which would put Gold (the metal) a bit over $2,000.

  • HPQ – Another newbie and I love the bargain.  It's cheaper than we bought it for with a net $2,350 credit on the $20,000 spread so that's $22,350 upside potential at $35.

  • PFE – Big pullback recently but we still love them, long-term.  We got in early so not worried at all.

  • SPWR – If they are this low at Thanksgiving, they will be my Stock of the Year for 2022 as this is a crazy-low price for an industry leader in the solar sector with every World Government looking to move to much more solar for the rest of this decade.   It's a $15,000 spread, currently at net $4,125 – easy money!  

  • VIAC – Or maybe this should be my stock of the year…   They have got to be joking with this price but someone has had a sell program running at this level since April.  Will they ever run out of shares to dump?  I think so and then we are left with VIAC at a $26Bn valuation – despite making $2.6Bn for the year.  Even better – they made $2.4Bn last year – this stock is Covid-proof! 

Why is there so much upside potential in these stocks?  Why are they all good for a new trade?  Becasue these are the ones we kept BECAUSE they have great upside potential and BECAUSE we would take them all as new trades.  That's how a great portfolio should look – especially a passive on that you can't adjust often.  

 

 

IN PROGRESS

 

 

Subscribe
Notify of
28 Comments
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
1020

Good Morning.

tommyt

you got your oil drop again phil congradulations

rn273

TROX/Phil – you suggested yesterday to roll the 25 long Feb $15 calls to 50 of the Jan 2024 calls for $4,000. Our call spread then will be 50 Jan 2024 $20 calls/25 Dec $20 calls. Assuming the deal with Apollo goes through at $27 (the current proposal), the Jan 2024 calls go up from 5.75 to $7 (so we end up making $3125 on 25 of those, the other 25 cancel out the Dec $20 calls); i.e. less than the $4K it took to roll them. Is your expectation that the deal price will be higher? Or that you are going to roll the 25 December calls to 50 of a later date/higher strike before the deal is announced? Won't it be better to not do anything and just cash out if the deal goes through? 

pstas

W- would like your take on Wayfair as a continuing short play. I am holding 22-Jan 300/260 bear put spread (cost $20.90), now $ $20.50, so essentially b/e. Fortunately I have sold several out of the money calls (320's and 300's) all to be expired as of today so overall , nicely profitable play. So, my question is your suggestion on holding the bear put position, close it or reposition ?

pstas

Snow- Bug question- Is it true that a covid infected/recovered/non-vaxed person has the same ongoing immunity as a non infected vaxed individual? 

jeddah62

Thanks Phil for the updates and the big effort that goes into it. 
 

I have a starter position on WU of 500 shares + 5 short puts. It is relentlessly going south. What's your take long term for them?

snow

The Bug/pstas – not sure if the data's solid enough to say, especially on the population level. You'd need a bunch of covid infected/recovered/non-vaxed people to compare to a bunch of non infected vaxed individual for breakthrough infections. Given how rare breakthrough infections are, that's challenging. However, lab data and tentative epidemiologic data seem to say immune levels are similar in those groups. An interesting tidbit, though – apparently if you vaccinate previously infected people, they have a stronger immune response than anyone else. Who knows if that means anything on a population level, though.

pstas

Snow-Bug- thx. We have answers which then leads to more questions, rinse and repeat. That's why I still cringe at the "science is settled" meme as challenging convention is the whole point? 

stockbern

speaking of MGI,  see the unusual activity in the 2023 calls   

in july there was some talk of a takeover 

stockbern

I mentioned AES a few days ago.  There was a recent $700K insider buy from a director and the stock has been green since then  

stockbern

*  I'm not recommending to buy anything. See Phil's note about lines above 

qcmike

Phil

 

Are we still in NAK  ?

Thanks

pirateinvestor

qc yes still in the lottery of Nak.