PhilStockWorld September Portfolio Review – Part 2

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• 100KP dividend plays - FYI, I'm loving them...thanks, Phil!!! Including the $0.848/share dividend, I am up 100% on my $2.38 net entry on LYG...that's pretty cool!

  SSDirk

• You guys gotta give it to phil–the voice of reason yesterday, last nite and this morning.

  Corleone

• Thanks Phil, for banging the table on getting short and getting to cash. Usually when this happens in the market I am freaking out but I actually made money this week thanks to you. That HOV trade was a great way to re-deploy some of my cash.

  Julian

• Phil, you are the man. My positions in ABX and CLF are up massively this year, and doing very nicely with USO and UNG. TSR is another winner. Just waiting for the TSLA short now!

  Rookie IRA Investor

• I traded with Phil for approximately three years, and consistently averaged 80% returns yearly... some of which was due to my skills as a trader, but much was a direct result of what I learned as a member of Phil's site.... both from Phil, and the many talented traders that hang out there. Phil... if you are reading along... thanks, again for the approximately $ 3 mil I made tagging along with you.... in order to make you feel good for the work you did... I gave the government 50% of it all, so you made your contribution....

  1234Gel

• WISH TO EXTEND A BIG THANK YOU! I netted about $18,000 on the short Jan puts and the annualized ROI/M is mind boggling! Hope to meet you some day and buy you and your significant other a nice dinner. Best Regards Newt

  Newthugger

• This is my first month here. Today was a money train with futures. I gained 7500 USD with KC, RB, CL, NG. I took RB almost every direction up and down. And I only used 1 contract or maximum 2. Thank you. I think it was a good investment to subscribe…

  Kgabor

• Sold out my AAPL mar95 calls. Up over 100% today on them!

  Singapore Steve

• What a great post today, Phil. A veritable feast of ideas! I've been reading your posts for years and have modeled my whole trading style after yours. You should be taking 2 and 20 off of me at this point ????

  Jablams

• Oxen (directly) and Wilkinson (indirectly) are making me a great day trader! Props to Andrew for another little nugget last night: HIG. $20 Dec calls paid 6% quickly this morning. And helloooo STJ - a few days, but nice pick nonetheless - esp with early cover premium.

  Dstillwe

• Its been a "perfect" month. Every stock I wrote calls against looks like it will be called away next week, every put I wrote will expire worthless. Thanks Phil, now I need some new buy/write candidates, or the new 100K portfolio….

  Barfinger

• Phil.... I remember back in March of '09, you stated " Unless you think the country is going to hell in a hand-basket, NOW is the time to do your buying". Do you remember ? I took your advice, and bought leap $2.00 calls on F, approximately 200,000 shares using the options, for just pennies. Now that was the best Ford I ever owned.... made over $1 mil - thanks go to you Phil. I now drive a Mercedes but still "love" the Ford.

  1234Gel

• Phil you are great, and not only is your market info spot on but you have the courage to call it like it is and write about it in a great tone.

  Flanger

• TBT - Many thanks, Phil. I join you in your opinion favoring the Jan expirations. That's a great play. I can never thank you enough for what I have gained educationally as well as monitarily. Here it is late Sunday evening and I am able to get world class advice, just by asking for it. I feel like I am staying in a 5 star hotel, and room service is just a telephone call away!

  Gel1

• My watch list looks like a grid where Phil's recommendations went UP and everything else went DOWN! It looked something like an ad for Philstockworld. I am half in cash, followed the recommendations (AAPL TASR YHOO) on a 20K portfolio and still up 1% for the day. Thanks!

  Sn0gr00ve

• Phil - DIA 107 Calls. As suggested I am taking the money and running to home depot for some shelter supplies! This is the grand finale of several successful trades from you through this roller-coster and as you have further suggested it is time for me to sit back and relax in cash. May even be able to talk my wife into the premium membership after these intelligent trades in a stupid market.

  DOStrade

• Phil, Thanks for the long calls@ $ 85 on AAPL. A quick $4900. Paid for my subscription!!

  Newthugger

• By the way thank you Phil for the DNDN idea. 3x till this morning and will 4x my small investment by next OE THANKS !!!!

  Microflux

• Thanks, I managed to make 2k today so I am happy…and feel like I am finally getting it. New equipment and a quiet place to work helps a lot. I am happy for all the members that took your /NKD advice….that was fun I am sure! coke Take your vitamins…I don't know how you do all this! but, keep it up!

  Coke

• WOW, glad I went bearish… Phil, thanks for the help on the QID calls yesterday, I turned it into a partial cover rolling down to the Feb 52s selling the 55s 1/2 covered. Sold 1/2 and now lowered my cost basis to $4.38 on the $52s (fully covered).

  Texasmotion

• The best play I made this year was PSW. Will renew my membership tonight. Looking for the same trading profit percentages next year, but will have an advantage from the compounding, and much better skills acquired from you and the many skilled PSW co-pilots. Thanks!

  Gel1

• I'm just starting my second year as a member, and I'd like to thank all of you for sharing your trading ideas and insight, and especially Phil of course for great all-around investing advice as well as trades! In addition to learning patience and profit-taking, I think one of the most important things I'm learning here is to stick to stocks and trades that suit my temperament. And wow, I had NO idea how hard it was to learn patience. I should say "practice" instead of "learn", because it seems to be a constant struggle. Phil, please keep reminding us how nice CASH is!

  Jerseyside

• Phil fantastic call on the markets… I owe you BIG…thanks and have a great weekend!

  Kustomz

• Thanks Phil, your note at the close was responsible for making those silly GOOG sellers pay for my NYC sojourn, nice!!

  zeroxzero

• Thanks for your thoughts against buying BP ahead of earnings (yesterdays' member comments). It announced a loss of $3.3b and is down 3% in pre-market but still just above the bottom of the chaneel of $40-$50.

  mSquare

• Thanks for the USO mention, Phil, 140% on my USO lottery ticket in 12 hours, and no hesitation in taking the money and running — you have trained us well. Sometimes it's teaching, but with this kind of stuff, where you get whipped like a dog if you let 250% profit melt away, it's definitely training. Happy Fourth!!!

  Zeroxzero

• Personally I admire and respect you disciplined approach to investing. My style is at the extreme side of aggressive and I have to learn how to be less that way. If I yell " Let it Ride" at my house, no one says a word so I can't use that to temper my behavior. Phil has done a pretty good job of knocking some of my potential moves and as a result, I have increased my portfolio value by almost 25% since late July.

  DoubleD

• Phil – just wanted to say a sincere thank you for teaching me how to offset, hedge, roll, and not panic. My account is up 10% in the last two weeks, and far from panic, this is becoming great fun. Thanks again,

  Deano

• I subscribed to Phils Stock World full service for a year or so and found that it was extremely helpful. Now I just get the Stock World Weekly summary, which I find invaluable. Phil does not baby people and certainly can't make someone into a successful stock operator who does not make the effort on their own behalf, but he is extremely generous with his time in answering newbie questions. Although I found it difficult to follow and implement all his trades in real time, what I did find was that once you got the hang of his methodology and way of thinking, you could work out your own trades and be quite successful. Even just using his patent Rule Number One* alone is worth its weight in gold. Rule Number Two is even better.

  Rookie IRA Investor

• Phil, I meant to post over the weekend, but I was busy having fun . Last week was a very nice week for me, and I wanted to thank you for all that you do. I am pretty much back to cash and really feel like I am learning. I have out performed the $5kp by a very large margin. Thanks again for the service you provide.

  Scotbraze





1020
September 17th, 2021 at 8:48 am | Permalink Ignore this user

Good Morning.

tommyt
September 17th, 2021 at 9:16 am | Permalink Ignore this user

you got your oil drop again phil congradulations

phil
September 17th, 2021 at 9:51 am | Permalink Ignore this user

Good morning! 

Oil/Tommy – Well still waiting for the big one but I have to flip the contract anyway so this is a good place to cash out and I think I'll stay out for the weekend and hope for a pop to re-short.



Holy crap the Nasdaq is power-diving!  

phil
September 17th, 2021 at 9:54 am | Permalink Ignore this user

Dow Jones, S&P 500, Nasdaq edge down as selling pressure continues

• The stock market will be fighting to keep its modest gains for the week today, but is starting on the back foot.
• The S&P (SP500) -0.1% and Nasdq (COMP:IND) -0.2% are down, with the Dow (DJI) off a couple of points.
• The 10-year Treasury yield is up 2 basis points to 1.35% after another choppy week.
• While the S&P is still looking like it will gain for the week, it is also still on a course for its first losing month since January.
• "The SPX is consolidating below resistance from the prior August highs (4,480)," Craig W. Johnson, technical market strategist at Piper Sandler writes. "A breakout above this area would leave the 4,500-point milestone and the September highs at 4,537 as the next major hurdles to clear. Downside support comes into play at the rising 50-day MA (4,434), followed by the July highs at 4,422."
• The economic calendar is light today, typical for a Friday, but the University of Michigan will release its preliminary numbers for consumer sentiment in September shortly after the opening bell.
• Economists are looking for a small rise to 72 from 70.3 in August.
• Sentiment is getting a closer look after the dour figures of late look to be at odds with spending. August retail sales showed a surprise gain yesterday.
• "The US Michigan consumer sentiment inflation expectations will get attention, but consumers remain useless at forecasting inflation (only economists can forecast inflation)," Paul Donovan, chief global economist at UBS, writes wryly. "Political polarization will be on display. Republicans are the most pessimistic they have been in over a decade; Democrats are more optimistic now than at any point in ex-President Trump’s administration."
• See the stocks making the biggest moves this morning.

U.S. August home sales, prices face seasonal decline amid still-hot market

 

 

• U.S. home sales dropped 3.5% in August, while the median sale price also slipped 1.2% to $335K, albeit still the "second-highest August sales total in the 13-year history of our report," said Nick Bailey president of RE/MAX, according to the RE/MAX August National Housing Report, which surveys 51 metro areas.
• It appears momentum in the 2021 housing boom is gradually easing, but strong demand and tight inventory conditions persisted in August, which "could be with us for the foreseeable future," Bailey added.
• "In fact, the drop in home prices might signal to potential sellers that it's time to get off the fence in case they fall further, which in turn could draw more buyers into the mix."
• Months supply of inventory in August of 1.3 fell from 1.5 in July and "significantly" less than 1.9 in August 2020.
• Average days on market of 24 was one day more than July and reflected sales that were 18 days faster, on average, than in August a year ago.
• The number of homes for sale also fell 6.2% M/M and down 26.7% Y/Y.
• Previously, (Aug. 17) Home inventory rose in July but the hot housing market has room to run.

Money market funds witnessed their largest weekly outflows of the year

• Money market funds witnessed capital outflows totaling $45.3B, which is the largest outflow they seen all year.
• Leading investors to be overall net sellers of fund assets encompassing both ETFs and conventional funds for the second week out of the past three. 
• Traders and investors removed $33.1B from the market according to the latest Refinitiv Lipper U.S. fund flow insight report.
• Market participants will also notice that equity funds garnered $5.9B, taxable bond funds pulled in $5B, and tax-exempt bond funds attracted $1.3B.
• SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSEARCA:SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust 1 (NASDAQ:QQQ) led all equity ETFs as they took in $3B and $1.5B in net new money. In contrast, iShares Russell 2000 ETF (NYSEARCA:IWM) and Select Sector Financials SPDR (NYSEARCA:XLF) hemorrhaged out the greatest  outflows for the week totaling $878M and $621M.
• From a fixed income ETF viewpoint, SPDR Bloomberg Barclays 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF (NYSEARCA:BIL) attracted the most significant inflows totaling $526M, and Schwab US TIPS ETF (NYSEARCA:SCHP) came in second, pulling in $241M.
• On the flipside, iBoxx $High Yield Corporates (NYSEARCA:HYG) and iShares: iBoxx $Investment Grade Corporates (NYSEARCA:LQD) saw net outflows of $1B and $369M.
• In addition to the weekly net outflows, ETFs have been in the spotlight for another reason. Oregon Democratic Sen. Ron Wyden is proposing a tax loophole plan that can significantly affect the ETF marketplace.

Evercore finds favorites in surprisingly strong retail sales report

• Evercore ISI's spin through yesterday's retail sales surprise for August found positives for its top five in the broadlines/hardlines sector, with the back-to-school strength portending some upbeat results to come in the winter season.
• Those retail sales rose 0.7% from July, and up a solid 15.1% year-over-year with momentum from clothing stores, as well as restaurants and even general merchandise.
• And Evercore notes that ex-Autos/Gas/Restaurants, the figures were up 11.4% year-over-year, with the two-year stacks accelerating from July, up to +20.7%.
• Retail spending is "well above" the 4% nominal historical year-over-year norm – and analyst Greg Melich and team hold the view that "the sticky demand strength is more reflective of a new plateau for future growth than pull forward requiring 'payback' of nominal decline."
• Its second-half forecast for 5% growth (15% from 2019) probably has more upside risk than down, they say, looking at strength in its retail sales lead indicator; the correlation of back-to-school sales with holiday demand; and accelerating inflation and corresponding strength in pricing power.
• Digging into details: Home improvement sales rose 6.3% Y/Y in August, down slightly from a three-month trend – but despite that, the firm feels "nesting trends are well established and sticky through 2021." And that "paints a solid backdrop" for Home Depot (NYSE:HD) and Lowe's (NYSE:LOW).
• It's expecting the home improvement market to grow 10% this year even after a 13% rise in 2020. Its Home Improvement Lead Indicator (used to project six-month demand) decelerated 500 basis points in July, but Web traffic for the two big retailers is following a typical seasonal deceleration, it notes. Tractor Supply (NASDAQ:TSCO) also followed that trend, but is staying above 2019 and 2020 levels, and Floor & Decor (NYSE:FND) didn't see a deceleration and is "significantly" above strong 2020 levels.
• Consumer Electronics and Appliances decelerated to +18% in August from +22% in July, but it's still marking strong growth against last year's COVID-depressed backdrop.
• "With inflation persistent for now, we believe Consumer Electronics can gain share of wallet for several years, as it did from 2000-2007" – and Best Buy (NYSE:BBY) is "uniquely positioned to ride this wave," with the past few years' digital investments putting the retailer in a place to pivot to the "accelerated Multichannel revolution."
• Turning to General Merchandise, it rose 15.5% year-over-year vs. a three-month trend of 12.5%, the firm notes (and jumped 17.4% vs. August 2019). Those including Walmart (NYSE:WMT), Target (NYSE:TGT) and Costco (NASDAQ:COST) posted strong back-to-school trends, and Evercore likes Costco with two catalysts (a likely fee hike, and food inflation), calling it a "consistent share winner." Meanwhile, Dollar General (NYSE:DG) is favored in the 12- to 18-month view.
• Grocery, Food at Home and Inflation are picking up, it says, and home strength is the key driver of significant outperformance in 2021 by Albertsons (NYSE:ACI) and Kroger (NYSE:KR).
• And finally on Auto Parts & Tires, sales were up 7.7% year-over-year and the industry has grown 14% since August 2019; that mid-teens two-year growth is about triple the historic norms, Evercore notes. DIY has been "stubbornly strong" despite fading stimulus and tough comparisons. But here Evercore starts a positive Tactical Trading call on Genuine Parts Co. (NYSE:GPC), owner of NAPA – stabilized share, improved execution, and likely to benefit from enhanced pricing. And its top pick in the sector for outsized share gain is O'Reilly Automotive (NASDAQ:ORLY), while it also has an Outperform rating on Advance Auto Parts (NYSE:AAP).
• The firm says its top overall picks are those fitting into its "MEND" framework for post-pandemic success: Multi-channel, E-commerce, Nesting, and De-densification. And those are Best Buy (BBY), O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY), Sherwin-Williams (NYSE:SHW), Amazon.com (NASDAQ:AMZN) and Petco Health and Wellness (NASDAQ:WOOF)

United Airlines experiences 'technical issues,' briefly halts US flights

 

 

• United Airlines (UAL +1.4%) temporarily stopped all its US and Canada flights early Friday morning following a systemwide outage that impacted the boarding process. Customers said they were experiencing issues logging into the company's website and app to access tickets or check bags.
• The airline issued a statement around 8 am noting that all systems were operating normally again after a 45 minute ground stop due to "technical issues." Only 1% of flights were delayed and none were cancelled, according to flightaware.com.
• Shares dipped briefly after the news but are now up 0.88% pre-market. The company also announced Friday that it would begin flying three weekly flights between Washington DC and Lagos, Nigeria.
• Yesterday, airline stocks jumped following a bright outlook by Ryanair and news of lessening COVID restrictions in Europe.

I support Fed chair less and less each day – top Republican on House Ways and Means Committee

• Congressman Kevin Brady (R.-Tex.), the ranking member of the House Ways and Means Committee, said Friday that he supports the renomination of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell "less and less each day," citing what he sees as mismanagement of the current economic situation.
• "Frankly, I think they have been in denial of a number of these issues," he told CNBC, referring to policymakers on the Fed.
• Specifically, Brady pointed to inflation as one of the economic challenges the Fed has mishandled.
• The Republican also accused the Fed of encouraging Congress to increase spending.
• "I'm questioning his leadership, frankly," Brady said of the Fed chief.
• Brady also criticized the tax proposals made by President Joe Biden, saying they would be bad for the economy. He also repeated his opposition to the pending $3.5T infrastructure bill currently under consideration in Congress.
• "I don't think we've ever seen a government spend so much money to kill so many jobs, drive up inflation and create the greatest expansion of the welfare state in our history," he said.
• Despite Brady's waning support for Fed Chair Powell, Washington insiders are expecting him to secure another term as the head of the central bank.

phil
September 17th, 2021 at 10:01 am | Permalink Ignore this user

Wynn Resorts gets $1.5B credit line as Macau comes under scrutiny

• Wynn Resorts (WYNN -2.4%) obtained a $1.5B credit line from Bank of China following news of increased government regulation at Macau, the world's largest gambling center. Wynn will also be able to borrow an additional $1B under certain conditions.
• The credit line will be used to refinance the debt of Wynn Macau and its subsidiaries, along with funding "ongoing working capital needs and for general corporate purposes.”
• Shares of Wynn have fallen each day this week, dropping over 22% since the news. Other casino stocks have seen similar declines as the government will hold a 45-day consultation to discuss the territory's gaming law reforms.
• Meanwhile, Macau gambling stocks have been downgraded by analysts given the lower potential for earnings.

Wynn Resorts cut at Jefferies and Argus as Macau overhang sends analysts to the sidelines

• Wynn Resorts (NASDAQ:WYNN) sees another bull run to the sidelines amid the revelation that Macau regulators will be closely involved with gaming operators.
• Jefferies lowers its rating on Wynn to Hold from Buy and sets a price target of $83.
• Analyst David Katz: "The recent developments in Macau around concession renewals implied tighter restrictions on the gaming industry going forward. We believe WYNN's VIP business, which had been the primary earnings contributor pre-COVID, could be materially impacted. Combined with the ongoing COVID overhang, we are taking a more conservative approach, lowering our estimates."
• Argus also downgraded WYNN today with a move to a Hold rating from Buy. "Our less optimistic view reflects heightened scrutiny by the Macau government as it begins a 45-day consultation period in which it overhauls regulations, reviews the number of casino licenses it will grant and scrutinizes supervisory requirements," updates John Staszak.
• Shares of Wynn Resorts (WYNN) are down 18% for the week with Wall Street confidence cracked over the Macau disruption.

FDA advisors to vote on Pfizer booster based on only company conducted study

• Later today, members of an FDA advisory committee will be asked to vote on whether safety and efficacy data support Pfizer's (NYSE:PFE) request for COVID-19 booster shots, but only based on a clinical trial the company conducted.
• The question to the Vaccines and Related Biologics Advisory Committee asks whether data from the C4591001 clinical trial supports approval of a booster shot.
• Notably absent from the question is the inclusion of real-world data from Israel and surveillance data from other sources that Pfizer has been touting to support the approval.
• Today's meeting runs from 830a ET to 345p ET.
• Briefing documents from FDA scientists released in advance of the meeting indicated that they were cautious about other studies, noting, "FDA has not independently reviewed or verified the underlying data or their conclusions."

Guns of Brixton:  60+ South Korean crypto exchanges set to suspend operations next week: Reuters

• Over 60 cryptocurrency exchanges in South Korea have until Friday midnight to notify customers of a partial or full suspension of trading services, a week before a new anti-money laundering regulation comes into effect, Reuters reports, citing people familiar with the matter.
• "Should some or all services need to be closed, (exchanges) should notify customers of the expected closing date and the procedures to withdraw money by at least seven days before the closure," the Financial Services Commission said earlier this week.
• Exchanges that have not registered with the Financial Intelligence Unit by Sept. 24, as well as those that have registered but failed to secure partnerships with banks will be prohibited from trading in won.
• Of all exchanges, nearly 40 are set to suspend all services, while another 28 have security certificates, but have not secured bank partnerships, Reuters notes.
• A mere four exchanges – Upbit, Bithumb, Coinone and Korbit – have registered and secured partnerships, and thus can make won settlements.
• Some smaller exchanges already said they will end Won trading, and will continue operations involving only digital coin trading until securing partnerships with banks, Reuters reports.
• In the crypto universe, Bitcoin (BTC-USD -1.3%) slides to $47.4K in the past 24 hours, and has been trading in the $47K to $48.6K range since Wednesday.
• In mid-August, Binance ended South Korean Won trading pairs to comply with regulation.

Harmony Gold, unions reach three-year wage deal

• Harmony Gold (NYSE:HMY) has reached a three-year wage agreement with five South African labor unions, the Solidarity union says.
• The deal is said to include 6% annual salary increases for miners, artisans and officials, as well as a rising housing allowance over the next three years.
• Solidarity also says the agreement provides for ongoing consultation between the company and trade unions to ensure miners benefit from modernization.
• Harmony was among many precious metals producers whose shares plunged yesterday, as gold prices fell by the most in six weeks.

Six Flags Entertainment tracking ahead of 2019 levels with Q3 visits

• Jefferies stays bullish on Six Flags Entertainment (NYSE:SIX) after new data shows an overall strengthening in the reopening season. Notably analyst David Katz says Six Flags Q3 visitation is up 5.8% from the 2019 level, despite meaningful precipitation headwinds throughout the quarter.
• "Although our thesis is primarily centered on execution for 2022 onward, the stronger-than-expected demand profile is supportive. Ultimately, we believe the data update is bullish for the shares," he updates.
• Jefferies assigns a price target of $61 to SIX to rep 45% upside potential. The average Wall Street price target on SIX is $52.60.



Facebook updates business tools after Apple update hurts targeted ads

 

 

• Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) has announced new products and features for businesses in the wake of an Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) software update that dented the targeted advertising market.
• The social networking giant is adding new ways for businesses to communicate with customers. The features include the ability to start a conversation with a business by clicking an ad, which launches the chat in either Messenger, Instagram Direct or WhatsApp depending on where the ad was served. Businesses can also set up their Instagram profiles to allow customers to launch a WhatsApp chat.
• Quote requests on Messenger, currently in testing with select advertisers, let businesses pre-select four to five questions to ask customers prior to starting a conversation.
• Facebook is also testing Work Accounts, which would allow businesses to log into Facebook without first having a personal account.
• Read about Facebook's full list of planned updates here. 
• Earlier this year, Apple updated its iOS software with new privacy features, including one where users have to opt-in to have apps track their data across the internet, a key component in targeted advertising.
• Earlier this month, Rosenblatt Securities downgraded Facebook from Buy to Neutral, saying the Apple update took away the social network's advertising "trump card." 

phil
September 17th, 2021 at 10:04 am | Permalink Ignore this user

15,400 not even bounce – very bad sign.









We call this pattern "too far, too fast".

phil
September 17th, 2021 at 10:08 am | Permalink Ignore this user

Sorry, may not be obvious to all:

On the monthly chart, we ran from 8,000 to 12,000 (4,000) with 1,000-point (25%) pullback before going from 12,000 to 16,000 (not yet) so, even in a strong rally, we should get an 800-point pullback as a weak retracement (20% of the run) but, as we haven't had a strong retracement since 8,000 – it's very likely we pull back 1,600 points to 14,400 but 15,200 is the least we expect before rallying over 16,000 – even in a fantastic market.  

phil
September 17th, 2021 at 10:14 am | Permalink Ignore this user

Merry F'ing Christmas:

Lockdowns in Asia Deepen Commodity Supply-Chain Pain


The recent surge in Covid-19 cases in Southeast Asia has throttled ports and locked down plantations and processors, sparking extended disruptions of raw materials such as palm oil, coffee and tin.285 min read

• Big-Box Retailers Battle for Inventory in Bet on Strong Holiday Sales
  

Why Free Trading Will Never Be Free


Some brokerage customers aren’t happy that Robinhood and its rivals sell their orders. Even if regulators ban that practice, there are other ways no-commission brokerages can make money from your trades

Energy Price Crunch Pushes Investors in Europe to Bet on Inflation


The rise in investors’ fears about inflation in recent weeks is in contrast to the U.S. where a similar gauge has been relatively stable

‘Dark Stores’: How Groceries Are Being Delivered in Minutes


Startups are promising to deliver groceries to your doorstep in minutes, stepping up competition in the industry. Their strategy: to operate out of “dark stores.”

HONG KONG— Zhao Wei spent the past two decades as China’s equivalent of Reese Witherspoon, a beloved actress turned business mogul.

She directed award-winning films, sold millions of records as a pop singer and built a large following on social media, amassing 86 million fans on Weibo, China’s Twitter -like microblogging site. She also made a fortune as an investor in Chinese technology and entertainment companies.

Today, the 45-year-old star has been erased from the Chinese internet. Searches for her name on the country’s biggest video-streaming sites come up blank. Her projects, including the wildly popular TV series “My Fair Princess,” have been removed. Anyone looking up her acclaimed film “So Young” on China’s equivalent of Wikipedia wouldn’t know she was the director; the field now reads “——.”

rn273
September 17th, 2021 at 11:19 am | Permalink Ignore this user

TROX/Phil – you suggested yesterday to roll the 25 long Feb $15 calls to 50 of the Jan 2024 calls for $4,000. Our call spread then will be 50 Jan 2024 $20 calls/25 Dec $20 calls. Assuming the deal with Apollo goes through at $27 (the current proposal), the Jan 2024 calls go up from 5.75 to $7 (so we end up making $3125 on 25 of those, the other 25 cancel out the Dec $20 calls); i.e. less than the $4K it took to roll them. Is your expectation that the deal price will be higher? Or that you are going to roll the 25 December calls to 50 of a later date/higher strike before the deal is announced? Won't it be better to not do anything and just cash out if the deal goes through? 

pstas
September 17th, 2021 at 11:22 am | Permalink Ignore this user

W- would like your take on Wayfair as a continuing short play. I am holding 22-Jan 300/260 bear put spread (cost $20.90), now $ $20.50, so essentially b/e. Fortunately I have sold several out of the money calls (320's and 300's) all to be expired as of today so overall , nicely profitable play. So, my question is your suggestion on holding the bear put position, close it or reposition ?

pstas
September 17th, 2021 at 11:26 am | Permalink Ignore this user

Snow- Bug question- Is it true that a covid infected/recovered/non-vaxed person has the same ongoing immunity as a non infected vaxed individual? 

phil
September 17th, 2021 at 11:43 am | Permalink Ignore this user

TROX/Rn – You are right, that was a mistake.  I forgot they are getting bought.  We need to hold off on that roll in the LTP.  

W/Pstas – I think they will drift lower.  This is a furniture store with a $29Bn market cap with just $14Bn in sales and $400M in profits and that's only because Covid has closed their competition.  Shopping for furniture on-line is not likely to be a huge trend that justifies $29Bn.  I would simply take the opportunity to roll the long puts out in time when it's cheap and then you can roll the short puts if you have to or, when they expire, the next sale will pay for the roll.  

Nas touched 15,300 briefly.  



Blame the Quad witching or blame the Dollar:





Totally buying /GC off the $1,750 line! 

/SI at $22.50 too. 





phil
September 17th, 2021 at 12:03 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

Future is Now Portfolio Review:  $194,472 (up 94.5%) is up $5,245 since our last review and is flat for the day, despite the Nasdaq's steep decline.  That's a good sign and we killed JETS but we loved our other positions and we even added KRBN as a new trade (just the short puts for now).   



• NAK – Our fun little lottery ticket.  Don't forget to sell half if we get to $1 – then we'll be in for free. 
• KRBN – Carbon credit ETF.  Brand new and I'm targeting a double by 2023 so this is a very conservative start and we'd be happy to be "forced" to buy 1,000 shares at net $35.10.  



• CIEN – Way over target.
• COWN – Back to where we started but I still like the premise and it's a small, entry spread.  



• F – Big electric future for Ford.  Not a very aggressive spread and it's on track.
• FF – We just rolled to the Feb $7.50s so we're waiting on next earnings (2nd week of November).  They are down because they paid out a $2.50 special dividend so we're not actually down that much in the short puts as we're owed $2.50 per contract.
• FutureFuel: 19% Special Dividend Reaffirms Thesis, 9.5x P/E, 50% Net Cash
• 40% Drop In FutureFuel's Stock Presents A Buying Opportunity



• IGT – Cheaper than where we came in so good for a new trade.  



• SPWR – Also cheaper than our entry but notice how ripped off we are on the high price of the short calls.  Those are things that work themselves out over time.
• WTRH – Very disappointing so far but lots of time.  Waitr: Deep Value In A Frothy Market



We love these positions but this portfolio requires some patience as we're playing large macro trends – not short-term catalysts.  

jeddah62
September 17th, 2021 at 12:32 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

Thanks Phil for the updates and the big effort that goes into it. 
 

I have a starter position on WU of 500 shares + 5 short puts. It is relentlessly going south. What's your take long term for them?

phil
September 17th, 2021 at 12:43 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

WU/Jeddah – This is their current issue:

Western Union, MoneyGram estimated to lose $400M/year from El Salvador Bitcoin move

Sounds worse than it is but absolute nightmare for them if it starts spreading.



phil
September 17th, 2021 at 1:00 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

Russell pulled it back together and went green.



snow
September 17th, 2021 at 1:05 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

The Bug/pstas – not sure if the data's solid enough to say, especially on the population level. You'd need a bunch of covid infected/recovered/non-vaxed people to compare to a bunch of non infected vaxed individual for breakthrough infections. Given how rare breakthrough infections are, that's challenging. However, lab data and tentative epidemiologic data seem to say immune levels are similar in those groups. An interesting tidbit, though – apparently if you vaccinate previously infected people, they have a stronger immune response than anyone else. Who knows if that means anything on a population level, though.

pstas
September 17th, 2021 at 1:18 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

Snow-Bug- thx. We have answers which then leads to more questions, rinse and repeat. That's why I still cringe at the "science is settled" meme as challenging convention is the whole point? 

stockbern
September 17th, 2021 at 1:34 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

speaking of MGI,  see the unusual activity in the 2023 calls   

in july there was some talk of a takeover 

stockbern
September 17th, 2021 at 1:46 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

I mentioned AES a few days ago.  There was a recent $700K insider buy from a director and the stock has been green since then  

stockbern
September 17th, 2021 at 1:51 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

*  I'm not recommending to buy anything. See Phil's note about lines above 

phil
September 17th, 2021 at 2:04 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

Dividend Portfolio Update:  $394,862 is up 97.4% overall and up $4,810 since our last review where we killed off short puts on F, M and SPG but added more short puts on TWO.  We added full plays on KHC and LYB as well.  This is also a very low-touch portfolio and, in the interest of time, I won't have much to say as we wait for a clear indication of market direction.



• GILD – On track too far in the money (safe) to worry about cashing in early. 
• VIAC – We'd love to own 500 shares for net $25.65 so there's no downside to these.
• ET – We want to sell puts but let's see how low they can go.   The longs will be called away in Jan.



• TWO – This set will be called away.
• DOW – Fairly new.  Cheaper than our entry.



• KHC – Brand new. 
• LYB – Brand new.
• MO – Over our target.
• NLY – Over our target. 



• PFE – Miles over target but pays a nice dividend. 
• TWO – We sold 10 more puts on last month's dip.



• VRTS – Pretty new.
• FRO – We are aggressively long into earnings.  Will cover at $9.



• PETS – Aggressively long, waiting for the next spike up.



• SIG – As long as the short calls are overpriced, there's no sense in selling.  It's a $60,000 position at net $56,170 so why give up almost $4,000 in additional gains if we don't need the money or margin?  
• T – Another one that could be our Trade of the Year if they are still this cheap at Thanksgiving.   If I were not expecting a correction – I would trade SIG in for more of these!  



phil
September 17th, 2021 at 2:53 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

Earnings Portfolio Review:  $308,931 is up 208.9% overall and up $7,028 since our last review, so I guess we're on the right track.  The Earnings Portfolio is self-hedging, with the SQQQ position but, wisely, we use it to sell calls against as well.  We are almost all cash, which is fantastic – so we are ready to do a bit of bargain-hunting as we only have 6 positions using net $17,585 in cash – yet still they made $7,028 in the past month.  Aren't options fun?  We cashed out INTC and X positions and short puts on HBI and WBA as they were both too far in the money to keep risking.  



• SBUX – Short calls left over from a spread we cashed in at the top.  As we expected, SBUX came down nicely but we should now set a stop at $10 as it's not worth risking a rally back. 



• GILD – On track.
• GOLD – Not off to a good start but we love the inflation hedge.



• PETS – Going nowhere fast on the whole but they do spike up on occasion.  
• SQQQ – There's no way the Jan $30s won't die worthless so no point in buying them back and this spread gives us a ton of protection.
• VIAC – We're aggressively long and waiting for analysts to wake up and smell the value.



phil
September 17th, 2021 at 4:04 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

Butterfly Portfolio Review:  This is what happens when we let our positions run (compound interest).  Unlike our other portfolios, the Butterfly Portfolio has been running since Jan of 2018 and, at $1,240,427, it's up 520.2% overall and up $66,060 since our last review. Flat markets are great for the Butterfly positions, as we sell premium puts and calls and both sides go worthless in a flat market.  We made a lot of moves to sell more premium last month and we're pretty well set into January.  



• AAPL – This position got SO big but we love it.  It's net $273,580 but we just sold $30,200 (11%) worth of premium against it for the quarter but we're taking a loss and paying back $44,700 on the short calls.  As a new set, we'll sell 40 Jan $145 calls for $9.50 ($38,000) and 40 of the 2023 $125 puts for $10.30 ($41,200).  Our $480,000 bull call spread would be 100% in the money over $150 and it's currently net $273,600 so we have PLENTY of upside buffer to the short calls and PLENTY more short calls we can sell to cover the puts.  Aren't options fun?  



• AMZN – It's only small in the number of contracts but the shares make it almost as large as AAPL.  In fact, we sold $42,900 worth of premium for the quarter on a 1/3 cover so it's actually more effective than AAPL at generating revenue.  At the moment, the short calls look ugly but we're not even at $3,500 so that whole $38,885 charged against our balance is premium.  



• DIS – Even this one got large as it aged.  We sold $45,000 worth of premium that expires in January and we're a little higher than we'd like but it's only a 1/3 cover and we're actually thrilled that our longs are in the money already, since they have $187,500 potential vs the current net of $102,375 for the bull call spread.  



• F – Just  net $13,707 but it will be $37,500 if F is over $15 and, while we wait, we just sold $5,600 (40%) worth of premium for the quarter.  FUN! 



• GNW – The Sept $4.50 calls will expire worthless but GNW is now too cheap to sell calls so we'll just wait for the bounce.  Let's also buy back the short 2023 $5 calls as it's only $1,800 and we can do better on a bounce.  



• GOLD – We're getting hammered here so – how can we take advantage of it?  We owe $25,825 to the short puts and the 2024 $20 puts are $4.80 so selling 50 of those ($24,000) should do the trick.  We can also buy back the 50 short 2023 $23 calls for $1.33 ($6,625) and offer to buy 50 2024 $50 calls for $5 and that will allow us to aggressively sell short-term calls when GOLD pops back into the $20s.  



• IMAX – AMC popped back so why not IMAX?  We'll roll the 10 short Sept $18 puts at $1.20 to 10 more of the 2023 $17 puts at $4.20 ($4,200) and we'll use that cash to buy back the 15 short 2023 $27 calls at $1.55 ($2,325).



• MJ – Great job selling more short calls last month!  Notice this is a net credit ($1,875) position yet we collected $10,560 selling short calls so who cares about anything else?  IF MJ happens to pop, our 100 x $10 ($100,000) bullish spread will cover us very well – hard to lose….  We didn't play this position because we liked the MJ ETF – we played it because the MJ ETF had ridiculous premiums we could sell!  



• WBA – We're aggressively long now.



• WHR – So glad we sold those $210 calls last month!  As long as you remember your JOB is to sell premium  - you will do well with this strategy.  We're also 100% in the money on our spread, so the premium selling is a bonus while we wait.



phil
September 17th, 2021 at 4:06 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

Wow, missed it by a couple of minutes but we got them all done!  



Crappy close – even the Russell fell back to red.  

Have a great weekend everyone! 

- Phil

qcmike
September 17th, 2021 at 4:18 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

Phil

 

Are we still in NAK  ?

Thanks

pirateinvestor
September 17th, 2021 at 4:29 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

qc yes still in the lottery of Nak.

phil
September 17th, 2021 at 6:20 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

NAK/QC – If they ever get approved they go right to $5.  



Northern Dynasty Minerals: Share Count Continues To Increase As It Waits For Appeal Results

Northern Dynasty: EPA Strikes Another Blow To Pebble

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