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PhilStockWorld November Portfolio Review – Part 1

Up and down we go! 

In our September Portfolio Review (16th), we were down about 50% in the STP at $94,705 but our October Review (12th) caught the dip and the STP blasted back to $128,727 but now the S&P is back at record highs and the STP is back to $91,022 and that's down 54.5% but we still have $156,199 in cash so there's no need to add money yet – but it is a good time to improve our hedges.  

The STP's primary function is to act as a hedge for our bullish positions in the Long-Term Portfolio, which we'll review at the end of the week.  The LTP is at $2,210,453 at the moment, up 342% overall, up $79,858 ($2,130,595) since our October 15th review.  So up $79,858 in the LTP and down $37,705 in the STP is up net $42,153 and that's the number we care about.  Sure we could have made more money if we had less hedges but we went back to mainly CASH!!! in August and we've been cautious into the end of the year and will remain so until Q1 earnings are over.

The LTP/STP paired portfolios are at a record-high $2,301,475 from a $600,000 start on 10/11/19, so we're up $1,701,475 (283%) on our 2nd anniversary – isn't that worth protecting?  And it's the protection we have in the STP that allows us to be so aggressive when adding new longs to the LTP – which we did a lot of during the October dip (see our October Top Trade Alerts as examples).  

Now it's time for Thanksgiving and we'll be picking our Trade of the Year in two weeks and that is the option trade I feel will most likely return 300% by the end of the following year.  We've never been wrong about a Trade of the Year but we did miss our timing twice – fortunately we always give ourselves 2 years – just in case.  

Since we're just about at what I think may be a pre-correction market top – we're going to get more aggressive with our hedges this morning:

  • SKF – We thought the Financials might falter in an inflationary cycle and they did not so – Kill it!  
  • SQQQ – These are leftover short calls that will expire in January.  
  • FXP – We are very lucky to be profitable here – not worth further risk.  Kill it!  

  • TZA – This is one of our major hedges.  The short calls will expire worthless so we'll roll the 200 Jan $30 calls at $1.14 ($22,800) to 200 2023 $20 calls at $8 ($160,000) and we'll sell 200 2024 $40 calls for $7.50 ($150,000) for net $10,000.  It's a little tricky as we're giving the short calls 12 extra months but they are all premium that will decay at $150,000/24 = $6,250/month while the 2023 $20s have $100,000 premium over 12 months so $8,333/montn so we're at a $2,000/month disadvantage we can make up by selling short calls or simply adjusting along the way but, for now, we pocket $12,800 and still have a $400,000 spread while we wait for the short Jan calls to expire.

  • TQQQ – The short puts should expire worthless but we want to salvage the net $26 we spent on the spread and fortunately the Jan $160 puts are still $29.53 ($59,050) so we'll roll them along to 20 of the 2023 $200 ($66.50)/$150 ($37.50) bear put spreads at net $58,000 - so now we have a $100,000 spread that's $70,000 in the money.  So we've widened the spread and improved the strike without taking any money out of our pocket and, when the short Jan puts expire – we'll sell more for income (something we've been doing all year).  

  • AVGO – This is the losing (so far) half of a trade with QCOM, which we just cashed out.  Come January, we'll rollt the short calls to longer, higher strikes.  

  • CMG – This one makes our portfolio yo-yo.  At the moment, we're down but no point in adjusting – we'll be very happy if the $63,000 worth of short calls go worthless and we may yet luck out on the short puts once that $1,800 line breaks.  

  • NFLX – I don't see how they'd hit $800 by January but let's kill the March puts while they are only down 10%.  Don't forget what your premise was when you entered a trade – the puts were speculation on earnings that didn't work out – we chose March because they shouldn't take much damage if we were wrong and they didn't – trade over.   The short calls, however, are a value play – NFLX still isn't worth $800 and we have conviction on that.

  • SQQQ – Our other major hedge.  The short March $12s and Jan $10s are likely to expire worthless for + $24,000 and then we'll sell another $30,000 worth of short calls and we will have already paid for all of our longs – that's a good hedge!  Meanwhile, it's a $200,000 hedge at least (the short calls can be rolled along) but, realistically, it's a 3x ETF and if the Nasdaq drops 20%, SQQQ goes up 60% to $10 so really a $100,000 hedge is what we should count on.

  • W – The short calls will expire worthless and we're right on target with the short puts and I can't believe how well they are holding their value (we want it to die) with just 66 days left to expiration but what can you do but learn to be patient?  It does put us in the funny position of rooting for a stock we don't actually like but if they can get back over $250 – I will feel good about holding on.

So the real hedges are TZA, TQQQ and SQQQ and TZA can be $30 x 1.6 = $48 so $360,000 in protection there and $100,000 from TQQQ and $100,000 from SQQQQ is what we can count on and $500,000 of downside protection against a 20% drop in the indexes is fine for now.  

We will look for some short-term plays to replenish some cash in the STP but, if that doesn't work – we'll have to take some of the LTP's profits and move them to the STP before we can get too aggressive buying more longs for 2022.

Money Talk Portfolio Review:  This portfolio is easy to review as it doesn't change.  We only make changes to the portfolio when I am going to be live on the show and the last time was back in September, when we added BYD and HPQ.  So no changes this week but I'm back on the show December 1st to announce our Trade of the Year but PSW Members will be getting that on Thanksgiving (not that I know what it is yet).  

Since we can only make adjustments on the show, I tend to pick "set and forget" kinds of conservative trades that I expect to be fairly bullet-proof from quarter to quarter.   We started the MTP with $100,000 on 11/13/2019 and we're currently at $207,914 which is up 107.9% on our 2-year anniversary and up $7,423 from our last review – not bad for an untouched portfolio that's 80% in CASH!!!

  • BYD – Not a lot of gains so far as we had a bit of a pullback so still good for a new entry.  

  • GOLD – In the running for our Stock of the Year at $20.90.  It's a great inflation hedge and net $7,930 on this $30,000 spread means there's still $22,070 (278%) upside potential at $27 in Jan, 2023 but we can construct something even better for 2024 and I really don't believe inflation is going to be "transitory".

  • HPQ – Still hass that new trade small but already took off.  Still it's a $20,000 spread at net $2,590 so nothing wrong with it now as it's a stupidly-cheap stock.  

  • PFE – $7,000 spread at net $5,000.   It almost should be closed but we don't need the money and we have no doubt it will make 40% by next January so we may as well let it ride.  Making 40% in a year is considered a lot by most traders – we're just spoiled….

  • SPWR – Our Stock of the Decade is possibly going to be our Stock of the Year.  The question is whether we see an immediate catalyst.  This $15,000 spread is 122% in the money at net $8,810 so $6,190 (70%) left to gain by next January and again – you guys are way too spoiled as that looks boring, doesn't it?  

  • VIAC – Yet another candidate for our 2022 Stock of the Year and, yet again, it comes down to who has the best catalyst as the VALUE is ABSOLUTE here.  As this stands, we're $11,000 in the money on the $30,000 spread at net $5,860 so there's $24,140 (411%) left to gain if we make it to $45 but even holding $35 will give us almost a double.  Based on how easy it is to make money – this should be our Trade of the Year!  

What an amazing portfolio – every single position would be good for a new trade.  A very solid way to deploy money in 2022!  

 


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  1. Inflation fears are boosting gold and the US dollar



  2. Bitcoin Drops Most Since September in Broad Retreat From Records



  3. Good Morning.



  4. Phil / TZA

    You mentioned "The short calls will expire worthless" . The short calls are expiring in Jan 2023. and already up 62% from when we bought them. Won't it be better to exit the Jan 2023 short call position?


  5. Good morning! 

    Nice spike up at the open, makes for cheap moves in the STP at least.  

    TZA/Jij – Oops, that's the problem with selling longer-year short calls – you forget.  Still, the short calls are $50s so I very much doubt they will go in the money but let's put a stop on 1/2 the TZA 2023 $50 calls at $5 in the STP – just to be safe.  Most we spend is $50K while the spread gains from net $60,000 towards $400,000 and we'll figure out the rest if we have to (doubt it).  

    Nov. 16, 2021 8:31 AM ET1 Comment

    • October Import/Export Prices: Import prices +1.2% M/M vs. +0.9% consensus and +0.4% prior.
    • Marks the largest monthly advance since a 1.3% increase in May. Before October, import prices advanced 0.5% from June to September. Prices of U.S. imports rose 10.7% from October 2020 to October 2021.
    • Import fuel prices increased 8.6% in October, with higher petroleum and natural gas prices contributing to the advance.
    • Foods, feeds, and beverage  prices rose 0.8%, led by a 5.6% increase in meat prices and a 1.1% rise in fish and shellfish prices.
    • Export prices: +1.5% M/M vs. +0.7% consensus and +0.4% prior (revised from +0.1%), the largest one-month price increase since a 2.3% increase in May 2021.
    • The price index for U.S. exports climbed 18.0% over the past year, the largest 12-month increase since the series was first published in September 1983.
    • Prices for agricultural exports rose 1.0% in October, with higher prices for wheat, other animal feeds, cotton, meat, and dairy products more than offsetting lower soybean  prices.
    • The nonagricultural price index advanced 1.5% M/M, with higher prices in nonagricultural industrial supplies and materials, capital goods, automotive vehicles, consumer goods, and nonagricultural foods.
    • In Monday's economics data, the Empire State Manufacturing Index surged to 30.9, exceeding the 22.7 consensus.

    Nov. 16, 2021 9:15 AM ET1 Comment

    • October Industrial Production+1.6% M/M vs. +0.9% consensus and -1.3% prior (unrevised).
    • Capacity Utilization 76.4% vs. 75.8% consensus and 75.2% prior (unrevised).
    • Manufacturing Output: +1.2% M/M vs. +0.7% consensus and -0.7% prior (unrevised).

    Nov. 16, 2021 10:03 AM ET

    • September Business Inventories+0.7% M/M to $2,101.8B vs. +0.6% consensus and +0.8% prior (revised from +0.6%).
    • Sales: +0.9% M/M to $1,669.7B.
    • Inventories/sales ratio 1.26 at the end of September, unchanged vs. the end of August.

    Nov. 16, 2021 10:03 AM ET

    • November NAHB Housing Market Index: 83 vs. 80 consensus and 80 prior.
    • Present single-family sales: 89 vs. 87 prior.
    • Next 6 months single-family sales: 84 vs. 84  prior.
    • Prospective buyer traffic: 68 vs. 65 prior.
    • “The solid market for home building continued in November despite ongoing supply-side challenges,” said NAHB Chairman Chuck Fowke, a custom home builder from Tampa, Fla. “Lack of resale inventory combined with strong consumer demand continues to boost single-family home building.”

    AAPL -0.28%Nov. 16, 2021 8:52 AM ET11 Comments

    • With the Christmas and holiday shopping season already in full force, it's no secret that Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) is looking at the iPhone 13 to lead sales in what is always the company's biggest business period of the year.
    • Apple (AAPL) has already warned that the ongoing chip component shortage will have an impact on sales even greater than the $6 billion hit the company said it took during its recently completed fiscal fourth-quarter. However, that doesn't mean that iPhone sales are showing any signs of slowing down.
    • According to Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, industry checks imply that even with the chip shortage, Apple (AAPL) is on track to sell 40 million iPhones between Black Friday and Christmas. Ives said that such figures would be record for Apple's (AAPL) iPhone sales during the holidays.
    • "We estimate in China alone there are roughly 15 million iPhone 13 upgrades for the December quarter as this key region remains a major source of strength for Apple heading into 2022 and beyond," Ives said.
    • Ives said even with supply chain issues that are expected to cut Apple's (AAPL) iPhone 13 production by 10 million units this season, the iPhone "growth story" is still looking strong for next year. Part of that is because Ives estimates that of 975 million iPhones currently in use worldwide, about 250 million haven't upgraded to a new iPhone in the last 3.5 years.
    • "Chip issues [are] a transitory issue in our opinion," Ives said. "We view supply chain issues as nothing more than a speed bump on a multi-year [iPhone] supercycle."
    • Ives holds an outperform rating and $185-a-share price target on Apple's (AAPL) stock.
    • Earlier this month, reports surfaced saying Apple (AAPL) has cut production of iPads in order to use those product's chips and other components to use in its iPhones.

    QCOM +0.50%Nov. 16, 2021 9:44 AM ET2 Comments

    • Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM) on Tuesday said it has reached a new deal to provide its Snapdragon chip technology to BMW's next line of automated driving systems.
    • Qualcomm (QCOM) said BMW will use its Snapdragon Ride vision system-on-chip [SoC], vision perception and ADAS [advanced drivers assisted systems] central compute SoC controllers for the next generation of the carmaker's automated driving stack of technologies. The system will be managed by Qualcomm's (QCOM) Car-to-Cloud services platform.
    • The announcement came out just prior to Qualcomm (QCOM) starting its investor day event in New York Tuesday morning. Qualcomm Chief Executive Cristiano Amon touched on the BMW partnership, saying that BMW deal is emblematic of the "many opportunities across end markets" that Qualcomm (QCOM) is seeing.
    • "We see an incredible number of changes in the [mobile] industry that are driving things, and putting Qualcomm at the intersection of demand for virtually every industry," Amon said.
    • Earlier this month, Qualcomm (QCOM) shares got a big lift after the company gave an upbeat earnings report and outlook, and had its shares upgraded by analysts at Goldman Sachs.

    LUV -2.10%Nov. 16, 2021 9:20 AM ET

    • Goldman Sachs drops Southwest Airlines (NYSE:LUV) to a Neutral rating from Buy as it works in more incremental cost headwinds tied to the shorter-term labor ramp up and medium-term investments in IT to the firm's estimates.
    • "We assume ~$1.5 billion in CAPEX to be invested across these systems from 2022 to 2024, which in addition to our inclusion of the exercise of the company’s options for Boeing 737 MAXs in 2022 drive the increased CAPEX outlook… While we expect this spending to be capitalized, we are also incorporating P&L cost headwinds associated with the roll out of these new technologies, in-line with historical management commentary that these initiatives would drive some level of P&L impact initially."
    • Shares of LUV are down 0.94% in premarket action to $48.68. Goldman Sachs lowers its price target on LUV to $59 from $63. The average analyst PT on Southwest Airlines (LUV)has been creeping lower.

    An old favorite:

    AXON +7.34%Nov. 16, 2021 8:59 AM ET1 Comment

    • Axon Enterprise (NASDAQ:AXON) witnesses a sharp 24% rise in price, a day after Q3 earnings reported revenue of $232M, a 39.4% Y/Y rise, beats consensus by $30.89M.
    • TASER segment revenue of $121M grew 44% year over year driven by strong demand globally for the TASER 7 platform; segment gross margin of 65.8% was up 290 bps Y/Y tied to strong demand combined with the continued benefit of engineered lower build costs
    • Cloud revenue grew 39% Y/Y to $63M; Sensors & Other revenue grew 29% Y/Y to $47M.
    • Annual Recurring Revenue (NYSE:ARR) grew 42% Y/Y to $288.7M.
    • Overall gross margin of 62.3% improved 330 basis points Y/Y, reflecting favorable body camera mix, strong demand for our premium TASER offerings and the continued benefit of engineered lower build costs in our TASER segment.
    • Adjusted EBITDA grew 50% Y/Y to $51M, representing a 21.8% margin on revenue and highlighting our ability to demonstrate leverage while also investing for scale.
    • Non-GAAP EPS of $1.17 beats consensus by $0.91; GAAP EPS of $0.67 beats consensus by $0.74.
    • The stock has surge about 36% on a YTD basis.
     


  6. AXON    I remember when it was our stock of the decade.  $10 looking for $100. We thought someone would sue for getting shot instead of just being tasered.  Lol, that was the previous decade.  


  7. But how much of this is due to inflated prices?  

    Nov. 16, 2021 8:31 AM ET10 Comments

    • October Retail Sales+1.7% M/M vs. +1.0% consensus and +0.8% prior (revised from +0.7%).
    • Core Retail Sales: +1.7% M/M vs. +0.9% consensus and +0.7% prior (revised from +0.8%).
    • Ex-Auto & Gas: +1.4% M/M vs. +0.8% consensus and +0.5% prior (revised from +0.7%).
    • Retail trade sales were up 1.9 percent from September 2021, and up 14.8 percent above last year. Gasoline stations were up 46.8 percent from October 2020, while food services and drinking places were up 29.3 percent from last year.

    How impressive is that when Gasoline is up 130% since last October?

    SPY +0.22%Nov. 16, 2021 7:57 AM ET9 Comments

    • Goldman Sachs' David Kostin is calling for the equity bull market to continue, with a 9% gain in the S&P 500 (SP500) (NYSEARCA:SPY) for next year and S&P EPS rising 8%
    • "Counter to the intuition of many investors, the stellar 26% YTD return is not a good reason in itself to expect a weak return in 2022," Kostin writes in a note. "Since 1900, the S&P 500 has generated an average 12-month return of 10%. Returns have actually averaged slightly better than that (+11%) following 12-month gains exceeding 20%, and only slightly lower (+9%) following 24 month gains exceeding 50%."
    • Kostin, the chief U.S. equities strategist, is raising his S&P 2022 target to 5,100 just a week after he maintained his 4,900 target.
    • Away from the base case, the index is projected to rise to 5,500 if there is faster growth and lower inflation and could drop to 3,500 with slower growth and higher inflation.
    • S&P 500 EPS is expected to be $226 next year and $236 in 2023.
    • "The 2022 investment environment will be different in several important respects from the past two years," Kostin says. "One aspect that will change next year is that the Fed will begin to hike rates in July. Real interest rates will also rise, solidifying the ceiling on valuation multiples and driving rotations within the equity market."
    • "However, other aspects of the current equity market will persist," he adds. "Real rates, while rising, will remain negative, and investor equity allocations will continue to establish record highs."
    • "In contrast with our expectation during the past year, corporate tax rates will likely remain unchanged in 2022 and rise in 2023. Corporate earnings will grow and lift share prices. The equity bull market will continue."
    • Rates and oil: Goldman Sachs expects the 10-year Treasury yield (NYSEARCA:TBT) (NASDAQ:TLT) to rise to 2% by the end of 2022, 40 basis points higher from where it is now.
    • Its economists predict two rate hikes next year starting in July after taper has ended, and two rate hikes per year after that, with a terminal rate around 1.75%.
    • They see a 10-year breakeven inflation rate of 2.8% next year and the 2-year to 10-year yield curve spread flattening to 90 basis points from 110 basis points now.
    • In commodities, Goldman says Brent crude (CO1:COM) (NYSEARCA:BNO) will peak at $90 per barrel in the early 2022 and then fall to $80 by year end.
    • The forecast is in contrast to Morgan Stanley, which predicts a patient Fed, energy outperformance and a drop in the S&P next year.
     

    Wow!

    Only 10% higher actually.

    BA -1.77%Nov. 16, 2021 7:35 AM ET3 Comments

    • Boeing (NYSE:BA) says Indian low-cost airline Akasa Air has ordered 72 of its 737 MAX jets in a deal valued at $9B at list prices, lending fresh support for the plane that remains grounded in China.
    • The order is the first ever for Akasa, which says the new 737 "will support our aim of running not just a cost-efficient, reliable and affordable airline, but also an environmentally friendly company."
    • Also at the Dubai Airshow, Tanzania Air ordered a 787-8 Dreamliner, a 767-300 Freighter and two 737 MAX jets; the deal is valued at $726M at list prices.
    • Boeing was yesterday's biggest gainer on the Dow Jones average after saying it is "getting close" to resuming deliveries of the 787 Dreamliner and on reports that China may be close to lifting the country's flight ban on the 737 MAX.

    WMT -2.02%Nov. 16, 2021 7:23 AM ET7 Comments

    • Walmart (NYSE:WMT) reports revenue was up 4.3% to $140.5B in Q3 and comparable sales in the U.S. were up 9.9% vs. +6.9% consensus. Transactions were 5.7% higher in the U.S. and the average ticket was 3.3% higher.
    • The retail giant's U.S. e-commerce sales rose 8% in the quarter and were 87% higher than the same quarter two years ago. Sam's Club sales increased 13.9% and Sam's membership income was up 11.3%.
    • Consolidated operating expenses as a percentage of sales fell 4 basis points as strong sales growth and lower expenses for COVID-19 were offset by investments in wages. Total operating income was down 1.1% Y/Y to $5.7B on a constant currency basis.
    • Looking ahead, Walmart (WMT) sees FY22 U.S. comparable sales growth above 6% and FY22 EPS of about $6.40 vs. $6.20 to $6.35 prior range and $6.39 consensus.
    • Shares of Walmart (WMT) are up 1.98% premarket to $149.82 after the earnings topper.

    OPTT -2.63%Nov. 16, 2021 7:07 AM ET

    • Ocean Power Technologies (NYSE:OPTT) agrees to acquire Marine Advanced Robotics, a California-based developer and manufacturer of autonomous surface vehicles, for $11M in cash and stock.
    • Marine Advanced Robotics is the developer of Wave Adaptive Modular Vessel technology, which enables roaming capabilities for uncrewed equipment in waters around the world.
    • The deal consists of $4M in cash and $7M in common stock, or slightly more than 3.33M shares.
    • Seeking Alpha  contributor Individudal Trader writes that Ocean Power stock is "so oversold that we see strong potential here."

    I like OPTT, good old Jersey boys I worked with when they were starting up.  

    AXON/Stock – Yeah, they grow up so fast….

    Submitted on 2009/07/22 at 11:06 am

    TASR/Pstas – Quick story is:  Imagine watching Star Trek and they all whip out their phasers and stun the bad guys except this one officer who pulls out a Barretta and blows a guys brains out.  In our world, he’d get his ass sued off right?  What’s kept TASR down this decade has been lawsuits that using a Taser was dangerous.  I predict that in the next few years, we will start to see lawsuits filed against police departments for using guns and NOT using a Taser.  20 years from now, the idea of shooting people with bullets will seem barbaric…

    Submitted on 2010/02/22 at 12:30 pm

    TASR – Meanwhile, I like any play that involves selling the Jan $7.50s for $1.50 (20%) like the above $7.50/10 bull call spread, selling the $5 puts for .50, which is net .30 on the $2.50 spread and your worst case to the downside is you are in my stock of the decade for net $5.30.  You can also save a little margin by selling 1/2 the $7.50 puts for $1.50 instead against the spread.  Also, nothing wrong with the buy/write with TASR at $7.50, selling the Jan $7.50 puts and calls for $3 for a $4.50/6 entry or you can be more conservative and sell the $7.50 calls and $5 puts for $2 for a $5.50/5.25 net entry, which still has a 36% upside if TASR holds $7.50.

    Submitted on 2010/04/23 at 3:59 pm

    TASR/BGB – Taser is my stock of the decade (this one).   I love them long term and am always happy to buy on dips so they will be on the new Buy List. 

    Submitted on 2010/05/17 at 1:01 pm

    TASR/Cwan – They are my stock of the decade but maybe not my top 10 for now as there is no indication that their outlook will improve very much this year.   I still love them and we picked them last week but they could lay down here for a long time as they face municipal-level budget issues while SPWRA can be fixed by a stimulus bill.  Of course, SPWRA doesn’t have something as awesome as the Shockwave(see intro and then use at 1:30,  which uses up a ton of expensive cartirdges)! 

    Came in just short of our goal at $75 but still a nice decade:


  8. Our current stock of the decade is doing well but still reasonably priced:

    LMT was our Stock of the Decade but got promoted to Stock of the Century along the way.  Still only $94Bn at $342 so a 10-bagger at least in the future (fusion is the main reason).  


  9. It turns out filming someone getting shot is a much bigger business then just stunning them.  You could buy AXON at $179 and sell the Jan23 $180 calls and the $125 puts for almost $45 premium. Of course the company is still not profitable after12 years on our radar.  


  10. Profitable/Stock – None of the best companies are these days…   wink


  11. Just added the Money Talk Portfolio to the above review.




  12. How to hit the top on each social media platform




  13. Future is Now Portfolio Review:  $252,699 is up a fantastic $39,756 from our last review as the Future arrived with this quarter's earnings reports on our lovely companies and we're now up 152.7% since 12/12/2019 (my Father's birthday!).  I LOVE this portfolio as it's basically no-touch and just a test of my trend-spotting ability over time but, of course, I do try to make our entries when I sense the wind is beginning to blow in our direction:  

    • NAK – The long shot of the group but fun upside potential if they ever get their permits.  Not looking good recently:  "Biden EPA moves to end development of Alaska's Pebble mine"
    • KRBN – Went up so fast we never got a chance to turn it into a full position.  Short puts should expire worthless.  Still no long-term options.

    • RWLK – I love these guys.  Stock has actually gone down since we bought it but the short calls have kept us from taking too much damage but let's buy back the short calls and wait for a bounce.  

    • CIEN – Way over our target and net $12,500 out of possible $15,000 but we don't need the money or margin so just letting it ride.  

    • COWN – They were down last month so we doubled down on the longs and bought back the short calls and now they popped again.  Perfect!  

    • F – Well over our target for the $15,000 spread but only net $10,095 so another 50% left to gain.  

    • FF – Getting its groove back finally but too late for the short callers and the short puts are in the money so we have to: Roll the 10 short Nov $12.50 puts at $3.70 ($3,700) to 15 short May puts at $2 ($3,000) for net $700.  That means we collected net $900 on the short May puts and we'll be in 1,500 shares at $9.70 if assigned – that's fine with us.  Especially since we gained $3,300 on the sale of the Nov calls!  We can also sell 15 of the May $10 calls for 0.75 ($1,125) and we'll see how things go.  So today we're putting net $425 in our pocket and we originally had a credit of $1,000 so now we have a net $1,425 credit – about $1 per potential long and we're over $3,000 in the money on our long calls with a few months to go.  

    • IGT – This one is pretty new and has really exploded since our July pick.  We're well in the money on our $14,000 spread at net $6,425 so looks like easy money going forward.  Another boring way to make 100% over the next year!  

    • RKT – Brand new play and already making money.  It's a $17,500 spread at net $4,915 so far so $12,585 (256%) left to gain – even if you did miss the first $2,000 of gains in less than two weeks.  Aren't options fun?

    • SPWR – Our Stock of the Decade and maybe 2022 as well (why not, the decade is young).  $66,000 in the money at net $29,715 and the short puts are way down at $20 – this is just giving money away, people!!!

    • WTRH – Took off but then failed – what a shame.  Still, it's not even 2023 yet, so we're not worried and it's cheaper than our entry.  They beat by a penny but missed on revenue but it's early innings for this company.  It's cheap (we're in for a $1,500 credit) so let's take advantage of the dip and roll our 50 2023 $2 calls at 0.58 ($2,875) to 100 of the 2024 $1 (0.90)/3 (0.70) bull call spreads at 0.20 ($4,000) and sell 30 of the 2024 $2 puts for $1.50 ($4,500).  That's a net $1,625 credit on the adjustments so $3,125 credit overall and we may end up buying 2,000 shares at $3.50 ($3,500) and 3,000 shares at $1.50 ($4,500) and that would be net $4,875 for 5,000 shares as our worst case – 0.975/share.   Patience….


  14. So the final WTRH position will be 100 2024 $1-$3 call spread, 30 short 2024 $2 Puts, 20 short 2023 $3.5 Puts, and 20 naked short 2023 $4 calls? Or are we also buying back the short 2023 calls? 


  15. Ford's Rivian position (102 million shares) is worth about $18 Billion at the current price for Rivian.  That is a nice boost to F's balance sheet.  


  16. WTRH/Rn – 50 Short 2023 $4 calls.  If it gets over two dollars we will start to worry about those while Our spread he’s going $20,000 in the money.

    Nice pullback at the close…