Whipsaw Wednesday – Markets Blast Back Ahead of the Fed


This is a bit silly:  

Also, very predictable as I had said in our Live Member Chat Room at 9:59 am:

Dollar up at 107 from 106 and a bit yesterday is a big drag on the indexes so nothing alarming about being down a bit as long as our levels hold. On /ES, we’d LIKE to see 4,000 but we MUST hold the 50 dma, which is 3,920 at the moment. If we’re over the 50 dma, it begins to curve up and that initiates the long march back to the 200 dma at 4,350, which is about the strong bounce line at 4,320 (and will be by the time we get there).

I’m not going to pat myself on the back for calling yesterday’s bottom on the nose.  I will, however, pat myself on the back for inventing the 5% Rule™ – which called the bottom on the nose 6 months ago!  

S&P 500 with 5% Rule

All that’s happening since then is that the S&P 500 (and the other indexes) as simply obeying their trading range 10% below (and hopefully above) the 4,000 line – which is where we determined the fair value of the S&P to be at this point in time.  We would adjust the chart if the macro data changed but we’re not going to be panicked out of positions by simple gyrations within our range.   “Show me the Recession” – as my friend Cuba Gooding Jr likes to say….

We had some downbeat earnings reports yesterday but there WERE profits, not losses.  Last night, we had beats from BXP, BYD, CMG, CB, ENPH, MDLZ, SKX, TXN, V and WH with an 0.06 miss from MSFT but that was still making $2.23 per $252 share for the quarter with revenues up 12.4% from last year – GROWTH, not Recession.  

This morning we have beats from ALKS, AEP, ADP, BSX, BMY, CCJ, CME, GRMN, GD, GPC, HES, HLT, HUM, KHC, OTIS, OC, PDS, WM but BA missed, BG missed, INVZ missed, SHW missed, SPOT missed, TMUS missed…  It continues to be a stock-pickers market and our job is to identify the sectors and stocks that can grow – even in this rough environment – not to just give up when things get difficult.  

It’s all about the Fed today at 2pm – I THINK they will stick to an 0.75 hike but the outlook is more important than what they do at this meeting – we’ll have to see.  

Durable goods came in miles better than forecast by the economic doom patrol we’ve been subjected to all month had predicted.  They said it would be -0.2% and it was, in fact, +1.9% and, not only that, but GM just told us they have Billions of Dollars of unsold inventory waiting for parts to be delivered – that’s big numbers down the road as well.

WHR was good yesterday, OTIS, TXN and V all beat – good signs for this report.  


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Good Morning.

Pihl . Logging in – yes in now…. but all of yesterday… could not post and was not able to log in….

Phil / Thanks

Andy / Logging In. Have not been able to log in or post anything since Monday…. Can you please look into this?

KHC not responding well to earnings – not sure why?

Is there a seminar today? first time I could log in in a week! Just wondering as hitting the road.

Thanks. Set up the link so I can get it on the cell, hopefully.

KHC – so on the put side, we will be short 10 2023 $35 puts and short 10 2024 $35 puts?

Phil-My sister has two rentals in a retirement community she lives in and her premiums were each raised 400. over last year. Her Homestead premium WAS NOT raised, however. So they re hitting the investors. Shes’ in Venice area. However, I am in No Wisc and my premiums on both properties were raised about the same. I’m with USAA and have not had one claim for home, auto for over 30 years and it makes no difference.

Hello all. Thank you for your patience with the new site. We have some glitches that are to be expected and we would appreciate you directing your questions and or concerns to support.com

Here is the link to today’s webinar

Hi Andy,

The email address <a href="mailto:support.com” target=”_blank”>support.com doesn’t work. I got an error ” 550: 5.1.1 <support.com>: Recipient address rejected: User unknown in relay recipient table”

I sent a few e-mails to andy.com but a billing issue. Could you please check the e-mail or give me a call to resolve this issue? Thanks.

I emailed to support.com and got:

Address not foundYour message wasn’t delivered to support.com because the address couldn’t be found, or is unable to receive mail.

The response from the remote server was:
550 5.1.1 <support.com>: Recipient address rejected: User unknown in relay recipient table

Also emailed admin.com (which worked).

Andy / Webinar

The Webinar link doesn’t work for me.

Webinar , please try again , not working for me either

Webinar not working for me. Also webinar not on YouTube for last 2 weeks.

Webinar link not working here either!

WBA, After many of my negative comments on this company in the past, showing a personal loss of more than 12K and the final comments of an other trading site I follow, I don’t want to print the man’s complete comments but here the final:

I concluded last October’s update thusly: “Patience has its limits, but I’m willing to hang on to WBA a bit longer to see exactly how the company intends to make good on its promises.” Given this recent development, I don’t see how the company will be able to keep its promises in the foreseeable future so I am removing Walgreens Boots Alliance from the PF Growth Portfolio.

So in deed contrary to others believe, I think we are beating a dead horse here.