Big Oil companies have always moonlighted as geopolitical risk assessment firms. That capability faces a big test now.
It takes guts to thrive in the oil business, where the wipeouts can be as spectacular as the slam dunks. Molecules are in the ground where they are, and engineering is not the only hurdle: Sometimes, a highly sophisticated navigation of political risk is required to get them out. Patrick Pouyanné, CEO of TotalEnergies, told me this year that he considers his company “not so risk-averse.” But he still won’t put its money anywhere that lacks “an economic framework and ecosystem where we feel comfortable” — a description he’s willing to apply to Iraq, for example, but not yet to Venezuela.
