Yesterday’s podcast is a good set-up for today:
Last month, we did our portfolio reviews on May 12th and the war was still on (I THINK it’s off now) and we were worried about the uncertainty with Oil at $101.57/107.84 and Trump was off to Beijing to meet with President Xi on trade and stuff. Now we have another cease-fire extension and oil is down to $78.59/80.93 – a significant improvement, about 25% lower but still 33% HIGHER than when we started this little misadventure.
A month ago, the S&P 500 was at 7,412 and yesterday we finished at 7,554 so not much movement there (1.9%) but the Nasdaq is back to 30,543, which is up 4% BUT (and it is a big one), that is AFTER adding SpaceX (SPCX) as a new $2Tn entry – to the broad index, not yet to the Nasdaq 100 index.
The Nasdaq was at $43.8Tn in total market cap in early June, sold off dramatically as people raised cash for SPCX in their portfolios and now has bounced back to $45.8Tn – EXACTLY $2Tn (4.5%) higher than where it started yet the index only recovered 4%. That means other stocks sold off to accommodate SPCX and the rest of the index SHRANK to make room – that is NOT healthy activity!
As you can see from the QQQ chart above, the RSI says we are overbought and the MACD says we are overbought and the 42x record-high Case-Shiller P/E Ratio says we are overbought so I’m going to go out on a limb and say we’re probably overbought here – keep that in mind when we’re reviewing our portfolios!
IN PROGRESS
