Posts Tagged ‘ADP report’

Taking the Market’s Temperature

Taking the Market’s Temperature

Courtesy of Joshua M Brown, The Reformed Broker 

Just some random market thoughts and observations as we head into the holiday weekend doldrums…

* The S&P 500 looks to finish the 2nd quarter 2010 down 11%.  An absolute slaughterhouse from the end of April on. 

* You know the bulls are spent when we couldn’t even get the traditional End Of Quarter Markups.  Brian Shannon (Alpha Trends) called it "end of quarter window-smashing" yesterday with the indexes down close to 4% apiece.

* I’m hearing chatter about the possibility of a short squeeze but I’m not sure I see one brewing.  You would need something on the horizon that adds a little fear for the shorts.  You’re going to tell me that they’re afraid of tomorrow’s ADP report?  Or the employment numbers due out Friday? 

* (Supposedly) positive news from Europe’s banking wreck yielded little or no reaction here in the States this morning.  But we all know how negative news is reacted to lately.  A sentiment indicator if ever there was one:  Good News = Blah, Bad News = Death & Dismemberment.

* Apple finishes down more than ten bucks on news of a Verizon iPhone launch in 6 months.  So apparently, 10 million plus new iPhone users is an underwhelming possibility.  Another sentiment touchstone for sure.  Verizon was down, too.  Oh boy.

* No one running big money is looking to do anything heroic this week, regardless of stocks having gotten, shall we say, a bit cheaper.  Other than BP (because of Exxon rumors) and the Tesla IPO (hyped beyond belief), I saw little appetite for anything this week.  The selling has stopped in many stocks as of this writing, but now what?

***

Anyway, these are just some random observations as I take the market’s temperature.  I realize that taken together they are incredibly negative, but that’s the mood. 

We’ll see how she finishes the week. 

 


Tags: , , , , , ,




December 2009 Non-Farm Payrolls Report Preview and Forecast

December 2009 Non-Farm Payrolls Report Preview and Forecast

Courtesy of Jesse’s Café Américain

As you may know, and as we suggested the other day, the ADP report, based on payroll data from American business, showed a loss of 84,000 jobs in December, versus expectations of a loss of only 75,000 jobs.

We also suggested that this Friday’s US Non-Farm Payroll Report will be a positive surprise, at least 10,000 or so jobs to the good. Here are the details.

The Imaginary Jobs component, also known as the Bureau of Labor Statistics Birth-Death Model, will contribute approximately 72,000 jobs allegedly created by small businesses with less credible evidence than a Bigfoot or an Elvis sighting.

Not that they are always positive. Each January there is an enormous job loss shown here, in the neighborhood of about 350,000 jobs. The reason they do this is because the seasonal adjustment factor is so huge in January that this imaginary jobs number does not matter, since it is subtracted (and added) from the numbers prior to the seasonal adjustment.

We can expect this model to continue to show positive annual jobs growth until the End of Days, and perhaps longer than that if there is fireproof paper in the afterlife. [click on tables and charts to enlarge]

The ‘headline jobs number’ which is the Seasonally Adjusted Number will be a positive 58,000 jobs, and provide much joy and exultation in Washington and on Wall Street. Pundits like Paul Krugman will caution that the economy is still fragile and a second stimulus bill will be required to insure these positive gains.

What is the basis for these projected numbers? The same basis used by the BLS – nothing. At least nothing connected with the real world. These are the numbers that bureaucrats might mindlessly crank out in response to the desire of their bosses for certain targets, a phenomenon well understood by most corporate financial staffs.

We drew the trendline on that chart earlier this year, assuming that the government would wish to show a steady job increase with a positive number by December, or at least January. So far we have not been disappointed, although there have been quite a few revisions along the way.

There will also be revisions this time again, with some jobs added and borrowed from prior months to help


continue reading


Tags: , , , , , , ,




Which Way Wednesday – A Brand New Q!

Well we sure ended Q2 with a bang.

Just because we're in cash doesn't mean we don't have some fun and our final index play of the quarter was a nice 70% gainer on the DIA $86 puts.  Other than a TNK spread and some quick GS puts (up a quick 20% and out), that was our only play of the week so far so we're really picking our spots for that sidelined cash.  Now that Q2 is finally fading into the sunset, it is time to see what's real and what isn't and we're really looking forward to earnings season, where we hope to separate the haves from the have-nots.

Market ManipulationAs David Fry pointed out regarding yesterday's action: "Stock price declines today were milder than expected given the news. But, silly me, I forget that this is the quarter and mid-year end—there are bonuses to be had and bullish headlines to be written. Why did the market rise this quarter? An overwhelming amount of liquidity plus an equal amount of BS."  It has indeed been a very frustrating quarter to be a bear, mainly because you have an administration that turns a blind eye towards bullish market manipulation because it's "good" for the economy.   Unfortunately, it's only good for the economy the same way rigging baseball so the Yankees would play the Mets in a subway series would be "good" for New York sports – it may be good in the short run but, if people begin to distrust the validity of the games, then they may lose interest altogether…

Professional traders like the market to make some sense.  We like to see X data have Y effect in a fairly reliable curve.  Consumer confidence fell 10% yesterday and consumer spending is 70% of the GDP so you would think it would affect the market by more than 1% right?  Not this market – nothing seems to matter and that's OK, we're getting used to the scam but we're now playing the scam – not the market itself and that's never a good thing and it's certainly no reason for us to commit our long-term capital and that's the only way this market will ever get healthy again. 

Jobs overseasMeanwhile, over in reality, steel prices in the US fell 3.1% in June – the
continue reading


Tags: , , , , , , ,




ADP: Department of Records Revision

Click here to sign up for a free subscription to the PSW Report.  It’s easy!  – Ilene 

ADP: Department of Records Revision

Courtesy of Jesse’s Café Américain

"April’s reading was revised to show a reduction of 545,000 workers, up from a previous estimate of 491,000."

Is an 11% month over month change in an employment number a revision or a rewrite?

The ADP report is supposed to be based on actual reports from private industry.

This pervasive pattern of ‘good numbers’ that result in stock market rallies and the massaging of public opinion, only to be replaced by downward revisions thirty days later, with little notice or quote, is cynical manipulation of the media at best, and a dangerous slide into social engineering by an increasing distortion of ‘reality’ at worst.

If you have not read the novel or seen the movie lately, 1984 is worth a look.

Bloomberg
ADP Estimates U.S. Companies Cut Payrolls by 532,000
By Courtney Schlisserman

June 3 (Bloomberg) — Companies in the U.S. cut an estimated 532,000 workers from payrolls in May as the labor market showed little sign of improving even as the recession abated, a private report showed today.

The drop in the ADP Employer Services gauge was bigger than economists forecast. April’s reading was revised to show a reduction of 545,000 workers, up from a previous estimate of 491,000.

Companies from General Motors Corp. and Chrysler LLC to American Express Co. continue to cut jobs to control costs even as the economy shows signs of stabilizing. Mounting unemployment will restrain consumer spending, muting any recovery.

“Still losing over half a million jobs a month is hard to get excited about,” Derek Holt, an economist at Scotia Capital Inc. in Toronto, said in a note to clients. “Steep job losses still signal a deeply troubled economy.”

…Economists forecast the ADP report would show a decline of 525,000 jobs, according to the median of 28 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. Projections ranged from decreases of 425,000 to 580,000.

Economists’ Forecasts

A government report on June 5 may show payrolls at companies and government agencies shrank by 520,000 in May and unemployment rose to a 25-year high of 9.2 percent, according to a Bloomberg survey of economists.

Job-cut announcements last month showed the smallest increase in more than a year, Chicago-based placement firm Challenger,


continue reading


Tags: , ,




 
 
 

Zero Hedge

Record Coral Cover Of Great Barrier Reef Shames Climate Alarmists, Media

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Authored by Peter Ridd via ClimateChangeDispatch.com,

The annual data on coral cover for the Great Barrier Reef, produced by the Australian Institute of Marine Science, was released on Monday showing the amount of coral on the reef is at record high levels.

...



more from Tyler

Phil's Favorites

Axie Infinity: online games where people earn as they play are transforming gaming

 

Axie Infinity: online games where people earn as they play are transforming gaming

Welcome to the latest craze in gaming. ira Lichi

Courtesy of Drew Cattanach, University of Westminster

The ultimate point of playing video games has always been to have fun. Whether it’s Space Invaders or Sonic or Red Dead Redemption, you hit the start button and do your thing until game over – and then you probably wipe the sweat off your hands and do it again.

But a new class of games is emerging where playing is an investment opport...



more from Ilene

Digital Currencies

Is Amazon About To Start Accepting Crypto?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge

For the first time ever, Amazon has shown itself to be interested in crypto with a new major hire within its payments-focused team.

Posted on Thursday, the new role seeks an experienced product leader with expertise in blockchain, central bank digital currencies and cryptocurrencies to “develop the case for the capabilities which should be developed” and drive overall product vision.

The Payments Acceptance & Experience team is seeking an experienced product leader to develop Amazon’s Digital Currency and Blockchain strategy and product roadmap

The Amazon Payment Acceptance & Experie...



more from Bitcoin

Biotech/COVID-19

US is split between the vaccinated and unvaccinated - and deaths and hospitalizations reflect this divide

 

US is split between the vaccinated and unvaccinated – and deaths and hospitalizations reflect this divide

As coronavirus cases surge, unvaccinated people are accounting for nearly all hospitalizations and deaths. Fat Camera/E+ via Getty Images

Courtesy of Rodney E. Rohde, Texas State University and Ryan McNamara, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill ...



more from Biotech/COVID-19

Chart School

Investing with Channels - Review

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

The US has a lot of debt, to sell more units of the debt to non US buyers the FED and Treasury must get the unit price of the debt down.

This video assumes a 'risk on' bullish bias into the Nov 2022 US mid terms. The bias assumes a US dollar trending down from it current high price of $93 on the DXY.






Chart 1 - US Dollar Channels


Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.




Chart 2 - Ethereum/USD


Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showin...



more from Chart School

Politics

New York defines illegal firearms use as a 'public nuisance' in bid to pierce gun industry's powerful liability shield

 

New York defines illegal firearms use as a ‘public nuisance’ in bid to pierce gun industry’s powerful liability shield

Illegal gun use is now a public nuisance in New York. AP Photo/Bebeto Matthews

Courtesy of Timothy D. Lytton, Georgia State University

Could calling the illegal use of firearms a “public nuisance” bring an end to the gun industry’s immunity from civil lawsuits? ...



more from Politics

Promotions

Free Webinar Wednesday: July 7, 1:00 pm EST

 

Don't miss Phil's Webinar on July 7 at 1:00 pm EST. It's FREE and open to all who wish to join.

Click here: 

https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/6552545459443187211

Join us to learn Phil's trading tactics and strategies in real-time!

...

more from Promotions

Kimble Charting Solutions

Crude Oil Cleared For Blast Off On This Dual Breakout?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Is Crude Oil about to blast off and hit much higher prices? It might be worth being aware of what could be taking place this month in this important commodity!

Crude Oil has created lower highs over the past 13-years, since peaking back in 2008, along line (1).

It created a “Double Top at (2), then it proceeded to decline more than 60% in four months.

The countertrend rally in Crude Oil has it attempting to break above its 13-year falling resistance as well as its double top at (3).

A successful breakout at (3) would suggest Crude Oil is about to mo...



more from Kimble C.S.

ValueWalk

Managing Investments As A Charity Or Nonprofit

By Anna Peel. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Maintaining financial viability is a constant challenge for charities and nonprofit organizations.

Q4 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

The past year has underscored that challenge. The pandemic has not just affected investment returns – it’s also had serious implications for charitable activities and the ability to fundraise. For some organizations, it’s even raised doubts about whether they can continue to operate.

Finding ways to generate long-term, sustainable returns for ...



more from ValueWalk

Mapping The Market

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

 

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

Courtesy of Marcus Lu, Visual Capitalist

The Suez Canal: A Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

On March 23, 2021, a massive ship named Ever Given became lodged in the Suez Canal, completely blocking traffic in both directions. According to the Suez Canal Authority, the 1,312 foot long (400 m) container ship ran aground during a sandstorm that caused low visibility, impacting the ship’s navigation. The vessel is owned by Taiwanese shipping firm, Evergreen Marine.

With over 2...



more from M.T.M.

The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



more from Tech. Traders

Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



more from Lee

Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider





About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

Learn more About Phil >>


As Seen On:




About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.