Posts Tagged ‘Apple’

As Apple’s market value explodes, questions abound…..(AAPL)

As Apple’s market value explodes, questions abound…..(AAPL)

Courtesy of The Alpha Ninja 

Brett Arrends of the Wall Street Journal has a must-read for anyone owning Apple (APPL) shares, titled "Seven Reasons Apple Shareholders Should Be Cautious." It pretty much implies to anyone invested in the stock market, as Apple is the S&P500′s second biggest weight, behind ExxonMobil.

I won’t list all 7 reasons Brett cites, but among the more important are:

5. The cellular networks. At what point will they stop giving away the store? Right now they’re paying most of the cost of each new iPhone, and under-charging for the data plans too. That’s great for customers and great for Apple, and bad for the networks.

3. The share price. At $260, Apple’s stock price has more than doubled in a year. Amateur investors say, "It’s going up." Present tense. Serious investors say, more accurately: "It has gone up." Past tense. No one knows the future. And the more it rises, the less attractive it gets. It’s now 20 times annual cash flow and 5 and a half times annual sales. At $235 billion, the company is being valued at more thanSony, Research In Motion, Dell, Motorola, Nokia, HTC,SanDisk and Palm … put together. That assumes a lot.

To the first point, I’m not in agreement. AT&T signs people up for a two year contract pulling in $70-120 per MONTH, on a device that sells for $500ish without a contract, and even that is only to protect the Apple "brand." If anything, networks could GIVE the phones away, with economics like that. Ever heard of a car that costs $30,000 to buy, but $$8,000 per month to USE? Neither have I.

The second point is the bigger worry. At what point does the "law of large numbers" intervene, capping Apple’s market value? I simply don’t know. In the meantime, Apple’s market share in both the US and internationally only has to budge a little to have a huge impact for their profits. Critics cite Apple’s higher price points as a reason this can’t happen, but they forget how fast the iPod and iPhone’s went from uber-expensive to generally affordable. 

Below is a chart that shocked me as I graphed it. It’s the top ten S&P500 companies by market value,…
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A few good shorts

Here’s what Allan is shorting. 

A few good shorts

X – Short Trade of the Week, April 12

*****  

FAS – Still floating above 100
 
******
 
GS – a break of 155, then 145, then…….
 
******
 
 BAC – too big too rude too arrogant to survive
 
******
 
 
C – some cheap puts if Sell pans out
 
*******
 

YHOO – fresh signal 

 

Allan’s newly launched newsletter, “Trend Following Trading Model,” goes with the trend-following trading system he’s been working on for years. Most trades last for weeks to months. Allan’s offering PSW readers a special 25% discount. Click here.  For a more detailed introduction to the Trend Following Trading Model newsletter and trading system, read this introductory article.

 

File photo of Apple Inc. CEO Steve Jobs at the end of the iPhone OS4 special event at Apple headquarters in Cupertino

p.s. Market Club sent out three videos yesterday on AppleOil and Gold.

Summary (but watch the videos):

Apple"the hottest stock in the world."

Oil: "crude oil has been very choppy."

Gold: "this market is setting itself up for a large move to the upside." But not tomorrow. 

 


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Apple Praise Borders On Hyperbole

Time to invest in, say, Orange. – Ilene

Apple Praise Borders On Hyperbole

Young woman holding a bowl of green apples and smiling

Courtesy of Joshua M Brown, The Reformed Broker 

Every single  living, breathing analyst on Wall Street (and some that are deceased) has come out with a bull call on Apple ($AAPL) this morning on the heels of the company’s blockbuster first quarter earnings announcement.  In over a decade trading this market, I have never seen anything like this analyst lovefest. 

Never.

Don’t believe me?  How ’bout this?

Clyde Montevirgen, Standard & Poor’s: Buy rating; new target $295, up from $270.

Samuel Wilson, JMP Securities: Market Outperform rating; target to $290, from $260.

Peter Misek, Canaccord Adams: Buy rating; target to $325, from $300.

Robert Cihra, Caris & Co.: Buy rating; target to $310, from $300.

Tavis McCourt, Morgan Keegan: Outperform rating; target now $325.

Young woman holding an apple

Keith Bachman, BMO Capital: Outperform rating, target now $290, up from $265.

Doug Reid, Thomas Weisel Partners: Overweight rating; target to $320, from $300.

Andy Hargreaves, Pacific Crest: Outperform; target to $330, from $300.

Jeffrey Fidicaro, Susquehanna: Positive rating; target to $300, from $275.

Shaw Wu, Kaufman Bros.: Buy rating; target to $315, from $305.

Scott Craig, Bank of America/Merrill Lynch: Repeats Buy rating; target to $300 from $260.

Mike Abramsky, RBC Capital: Outperform rating; target to $350, from $275.

Gene Munster, Piper Jaffray: Overweight rating; target to $323, from $299.

Toni Sacconaghi, Bernstein Research: Overweight rating; target to $300, from $275.

Yair Reiner, Oppenheimer: Outperform rating; target to $320, from $285.

Mark Moskowitz, J.P. Morgan: Overweight rating; target to $316m, from $305.

Close-up of a young man tossing an apple in the air

Richard Gardner, Citigroup: Buy rating; target to $320, from $300.

Phil Cusick, Macquarie: Outperform rating; target to $325, from $250.

Bill Shope: Credit Suisse: Outperform rating; target to $315, from $300.

Ben Reitzes, Barclays Capital: Overweight rating; target to $315, from $300.

Katy Huberty, Morgan Stanley: Overweight rating; target to $275, from $250.

Chris Whitmore, Deutsche Bank: Buy rating; target to $350 from $325.

Told ya.


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DO APPLE’S EARNINGS EVEN MATTER?

DO APPLE’S EARNINGS EVEN MATTER?

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist 

Chinese newspaper features Steve Job's and iPad in Beijing

I always marvel at the quarterly earnings at Apple Corporation. Not necessarily because of the impressive fundamentals, but because of the game being played.  Corporate earnings are a game. The best managements know how the game works and they play the analysts for fools by consistently managing expectations. No one does this better than Apple. Every quarter they beat and every quarter they sandbag earnings. Like clockwork, the analysts peg their estimates near Apple’s “projections”. And Apple blows them out of the water. This quarter should be no different.

Today, I was particularly intrigued to see CNN’s list of quarterly estimates. They are broken down by analyst, but also show a few “unaffiliated” estimates.  What’s interesting to note here is how much higher the “unaffiliated” estimates are.  The average “unaffiliated” estimate calls for revenues of $12.6B while the consensus analyst estimate is for just $12.15B – a full $450MM difference.  The average “unaffiliated” EPS estimate is for $2.75 while the consensus Wall Street estimate is for $2.48 – a full $0.27 difference.  We’re not talking about a small difference here.  This is night and day.  It makes me wonder just how these two parties could both be considered reasonable sources, yet so far apart in terms of their estimates?

While we’re at it I’ll go ahead and throw my own hat in the ring.  My estimates are calling for $2.81 EPS on $12.65B in revenues, 7.3MM iPhones, 10.1MM iPods, 2.95MM MACs, 41% GM so I expect Apple to beat handily.  But this all raises an interesting question we’ve been discussing of late.  It’s clear that these analysts are highly impacted by management’s communications with them (yes, they get phone calls from the companies if their estimates drift too high).  But it’s also clear that management is sandbagging them to high heaven.  Knowing all of this, we have to ask ourselves – why do investors even pay attention to these analysts?  They’re not “analyzing” anything.  They’re just copying the right numbers down after management gives them a nudge in the right direction.  Nonetheless, Apple’s stock is likely to soar or tank after the earnings are compared to these phony estimates.  That’s what is so frightening here.  These men and women can add or remove billions in market cap based on this “analysis”.

In sum,…
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THE IPAD WILL SAVE PRINT? YEAH RIGHT!

A watched iPot never runeths over.

THE IPAD WILL SAVE PRINT? YEAH RIGHT!

Courtesy of Richard Metzger at Dangerous Minds  

image
With all of the iPad hype going on this week, I was surprised that so few pundits were saying what I felt was glaringly obvious: No way in hell is the iPad going to save the ailing magazine and newspaper industry. Did anyone really believe that for a single second anyway?

Gimme a break! I already get more than enough distractions for free—no, really guys, my infotainment cup has been runneth overing for a very, very long time now—that there is no way, not a chance—none—that I’m going to subscribe to your magazine or newspaper now that a device I never asked for in the first place has been caused to exist by Steve Jobs. I don’t care what your new iThingee is or how great your marketing people are telling me it’s going to be. If you think what you’ve got is so unique and must-read that I should pay for it, I’ve got news for you, it’s not. It’s a very big Internet out there and as long as 99.99999 percent of it is free, your subscription fee is a self-imposed death sentence, and will not even constitute a revenue trickle let alone a stream.

Witness the recent paywall experiment at New York Newsday. It did not go very well. During the first three months of the paywall, exactly 35 people opted to pay for what they had been previously getting for free. Raise your hands, readers in Long Island, NY, how many of you who plan to buy an iPad also have plans to tap the digital ass of New York Newsday for a monthly fee?

About what I thought: None of you.

Every morning I scan dozens of newspapers around the world for my job at the…
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The Only iPad “Review” You Need To Read

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

Guest Post from Fake Steve Jobs of The Secret Diary of Steve Jobs

An open letter to the people of the world

Dear human race,

Customers wait to purchase iPad at Apple store in Chicago

First of all, you’re welcome. In the last few days I’ve been overwhelmed by your letters and calls expressing your gratitude to Apple, and mostly to me personally, for inventing yet another life-changing, mind-altering product. All I can tell you is that with iPad, as with all of our products, all we did was create something that we want to use. We’re just so glad that you want to use it too. It’s humbling, actually. When you devote your entire life to the endless, selfless quest to improve the lives of others; when you live a monk-like existence, and focus all of your power and genius on the singular goal of creating objects that nourish souls and transform people’s lives with magic and wonder; and when people tell you that this is, indeed, what you’ve done — well, it’s gratifying. Namaste, entire population of Spaceship Earth. I honor the place where your desire to consume becomes one with my desire to create.

Some pundits have posed the question: Why do anyone need this thing? Indeed, even those of you are lining up and standing outside stores may be wondering, Why am I doing this? Why am I lining up like a zombie for an expensive piece of consumer electronics, a product for which there is no shortage and which, let’s face it, nobody really needs? Back in the early days of our design process, Jonny Ive came in to see me and we spent a long time trying to decide where on Mazlow’s triangle this product would sit. Because we knew if we couldn’t be way up above the very top of that pyramid, floating above it, totally outside the needs it describes, then this wouldn’t be a product we wanted to make. Some of our early iterations, in fact, had to be tossed out because when we looked at them we realized that parts of them were too, well, necessary. Don’t get me wrong. That’s fine for other companies. It’s just not what we do here at Apple.

But let’s get back to you people who are waiting in line. I mean it’s not like you’re in Bolivia and there’s just been an earthquake…
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The Big Apple

The Big Apple

Apple Introduces Video iPod Nano

Courtesy of Joshua M Brown, The Reformed Broker 

Apple ($AAPL) now has a market cap of around $215 billion.  Incredible, and it couldn’t have happened to a more deserving company – they’ve changed the world.

More astonishing than the number itself is the list of companies whose market caps have been eclipsed by the tech king…

Apple is now bigger than Berkshire Hathaway, General Electric, Proctor & Gamble, Johnson & Johnson, Google and JPMorgan Chase

The only companies larger right now are Microsoft, ExxonMobil and Wal-Mart.

One other thing to consider – it all started with a device shaped like a deck of cards that was created to compete with the Sony Walkman - The iPod.  Think of how many millions of devices sold as a direct consequence of the triumph and mass adoption of iTunes and the iPod.  The dollar value created on the back of that product pairing is absolutely mindboggling.

For the details of who stands where by market cap, click the link below.

Source:

The Most Valuable Companies in America (Fortune)


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What is Apple up to in China?

Ultimi Barbarorum takes a favorable look at Apple’s store openings in China.  Read on to learn why. – Ilene 

What is Apple up to in China?

Courtesy of Ultimi Barbarorum

Chinese women fan dance outside Apple store in Beijing

Baruch, in this post: A new piece of information, augmented by local insight, that amounts to yet another upside case for Apple. And yes, it involves the iPad.

The new information: This past Thursday, Apple revealed plans to open 25 retail stores in China. Currently, there is one swish Apple Store in an upmarket outdoor Beijing mall, with one more planned in Beijing and two in Shanghai this year. Opening Apple stores in Chinese cities that most foreigners have never heard of (The likes of Shenzhen, Hangzhou, Chongqing, Chengdu, Kunming —there are 25 such cities in China bigger than Chicago) betrays a whole new level of ambition in the Chinese market, beyond just servicing creative elites in their international watering holes.

But what could Apple possibly sell in those stores that the Chinese can afford en masse? Let’s put that question aside for a moment and look at these recent observations:

  • My Chinese teacher, upon visiting my apartment, ogles my 17-inch MacBook Pro and 24-inch Apple screen. She goes so far as to run her fingers over the logo. “Made in China!” she beams. There is pride in the fact that Apple devices are made here, even if the IP comes from elsewhere. They are obviously built very well, which is more than you can currently say about Chinese-assembled cars or buildings. Apple computers may well be the most famous high-quality product coming out of China right now, and the


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Web Video FIVE Years After YouTube…Meh!

Web Video FIVE Years After YouTube…Meh!

Courtesy of Howard Lindzon 

The hottest thing in web video in the 5 years since Youtube was launched is a site I am too scared to log into…

I am not sure if that is good or bad.

It seems longer, but YouTube is now 5 years old .

The Russian YOOT who started today’s hottest site – ChatRoulette – is only 17 years of age. Fred has some more stats and links about the kid and his site .

You may have your opinions about web video, but two numbers matter to me…5 (age of YouTube) and 17 (age of chatroulette founder). If you think we are anywhere but inning two, you just can’t handle the truth.

This industry is so young and moving so fast that my own Wallstrip seems like 50 years ago. In fact, our very first show was only 3.5 years ago (makes sense that $AAPL was our first show in a show about stocks and trends):

 

With an industry this hot and this early, it seems surprising that there have been so few hits and so little on innovation (pre-rolls for christ sakes still).

Ashkan has a great series of posts on who, what, when, where, who and finally why so few are making money in the web video space .

I believe a lot of what Ashkan says is true and I also believe that Google’s $GOOG massive pay up for YouTube just threw off the whole industry.

I also believe enough time has passed that the next stage in web video is upon us. There will be more winners. The iPad won’t hurt things either.


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We Have Seen The Amazing Future Of Apple’s iPad And This Is It

We Have Seen The Amazing Future Of Apple’s iPad And This Is It

Courtesy of Henry Blodget at Clusterstock/Business Insider

steve jobs ipad apple APWe, too, were disappointed by the debut of Apple’s latest creation.  After all the excitement and possibilities, it just fell flat. 

But there were two revolutionary and profound elements to the launch: 

  • The price
  • The way in which the iPad is likely to be used, which is fundamentally different than how both computers AND mobile gadgets are used

On price, we don’t mean the price for the full-fledged 3G 64G iPad version ($829), which is way too expensive for a big mobile device (especially with the $30/month AT&T contract).  We mean the price for the stripped down WiFi-only 16G version: $499.

And it’s not today’s $499 price that’s important--$499 is still too expensive for what the iPad is.  It’s where the $499 is headed over the next couple of years. 

If iPad prices follow the trend of iPod, iPhone, and other gadget prices, we should be able to buy the low-end version for $299 in two years and $199 in three years.  At $199, especially, the whole game changes.

Apple's Insidious Plan To Force Advertisers To Use Apple's Ad TechnologyWhy?

Because of the way the iPad is likely to be used.

On stage on Wednesday, Steve Jobs demonstrated the primary use case for the iPad: Puttering around the house.  Note that Steve did not demonstrate the iPad by walking around the stage (mobile) or working at a desk (office).  Note that he did not play up its productivity benefits (the sales pitch for most PCs and laptops) nor its communications benefits (the sales pitch for most mobile computing gadgets).  Steve focused on something different: media consumption and entertainment for the home.

In three years, when the low-end WiFi-powered iPad costs $199, many households will buy 3 or 4 of them and just leave them lying around the house.  These iPads won’t be "owned" by any one member of the household, the way PCs and cell phones are.  They won’t live on desks, the way desktops do, and they won’t be carried everywhere, the way mobile phones are.  They’ll just be there, around the house, on tables and counters, the way today’s books, magazines, games, and newspapers are, booted up, ready to use. 

You’ll be able to play two-person games on them (also revolutionary for a…
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Phil's Favorites

Trump Tweeting As Much As Ever Amid Twitter Standoff

 

Trump Tweeting As Much As Ever Amid Twitter Standoff

By , Statista

President Trump has signed an executive order which aims to remove some of the legal protection given to social media companies, though it is expected to face significant legal hurdles. In a nutshell, it sets out to clarify the Communications Decency Act, handing regulators the power to file legal proceedings against social media companies for the way they police content on their platforms. Trump's decision to take action comes two days after Twitter attached a fact check to one of his tweets lambasting mail-in voting. He then threatened to close ...



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ValueWalk

Gold supply chain in recovery mode after pandemic shutdown

By Michelle Jones. Originally published at ValueWalk.

The gold supply chain was largely shut down as the COVID-19 pandemic spread around the world. However, things are starting to open back up, and production is beginning again. The World Gold Council studied the gold supply chain, how it was impacted by the pandemic, and how the disruption of the supply chain has affected investment demand for the yellow metal.

Q1 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

Disruption to the gold supply chain

The World Gold Council said the gold supply chain is entirely global because the metal is mined on evert continent except Antarctica and refined in nume...



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Biotech/COVID-19

Antigen tests for COVID-19 are fast and easy - and could solve the coronavirus testing problem despite being somewhat inaccurate

 

Antigen tests for COVID-19 are fast and easy – and could solve the coronavirus testing problem despite being somewhat inaccurate

Antibodies are incredibly good at finding the coronavirus. Antigen tests put them to work. Sergii Iaremenko/Science Photo Library via Getty Images

Courtesy of Eugene Wu, University of Richmond

In late February, I fell ill with a fever and a cough. As a biochemist who teaches a class on viruses, I’d been tracking the outbreak of...



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Zero Hedge

Ted Cruz Accuses Twitter Of Violating Sanctions Against Iran, Demands DoJ Probe

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

We've mentioned in nearly every single one of our posts about this week's dustup between the president and Twitter that the Ayato...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Tech Indicator Suggesting A Historic Top Could Be Forming?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Tech stocks have been the clear leader of the stock market recovery rally, this year and since the lows back in 2007!

But within the ranks of leadership, and an important ratio may be sending a caution message to investors.

In today’s chart, we look at the ratio of large-cap tech stocks (the Nasdaq 100 Index) to the broader tech market (the Nasdaq Composite) on a “monthly” basis.

The large-cap concentrated Nasdaq 100 (only 100 stocks) has been the clear leader for several years versus the ...



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The Technical Traders

M2 Velocity Collapses - Could A Bottom In Capital Velocity Be Setting Up?

Courtesy of Technical Traders

M2 Velocity is the measurement of capital circulating within the economy.  The faster capital circulates within the economy, the more that capital is being deployed within the economy to create output and opportunities for economic growth.  When M2 Velocity contracts, capital is being deployed in investments or assets that prevent that capital from further circulation within the economy – thus preventing further output and opportunity growth features.

The decline in M2 Velocity over the past 10+ years has been dramatic and consistent with the dramatic new zero US Federal Reserve interest rates initiated since just after the 2008 credit crisis market colla...



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Lee's Free Thinking

US Southern States COVID19 Cases - Let's Give Credit Where Due

 

US Southern States COVID19 Cases – Let’s Give Credit Where Due

Courtesy of  

The number of new COVID 19 cases has been falling in the Northeast, but the South is not having the same experience. The number of new cases per day in each Southern state has been rangebound for the past month.

And that’s assuming that the numbers haven’t been manipulated. We know that in Georgia’s case at least, they have been. And there are suspicions about Florida as well, as the State now engages in a smear campaign against the fired employee who built its much praised COVID19 database and dashboar...



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Chart School

Is this your local response to COVID 19

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

This is off topic, but a bit of fun!


This is the standard reaction from the control freaks.








This is the song for post lock down!







What should be made mandatory? Vaccines, hell NO! This should be mandatory: Every one taking their tops off in the sun, they do in Africa!

Guess which family gets more Vitamin D and eats less sugary carbs, TV Show



...



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Digital Currencies

Blockchains can trace foods from farm to plate, but the industry is still behind the curve

 

Blockchains can trace foods from farm to plate, but the industry is still behind the curve

App-etising? LDprod

Courtesy of Michael Rogerson, University of Bath and Glenn Parry, University of Surrey

Food supply chains were vulnerable long before the coronavirus pandemic. Recent scandals have ranged from modern slavery ...



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Members' Corner

Coronavirus, 'Plandemic' and the seven traits of conspiratorial thinking

 

Coronavirus, 'Plandemic' and the seven traits of conspiratorial thinking

No matter the details of the plot, conspiracy theories follow common patterns of thought. Ranta Images/iStock/Getty Images Plus

Courtesy of John Cook, George Mason University; Sander van der Linden, University of Cambridge; Stephan Lewandowsky...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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Promotions

Free, Live Webinar on Stocks, Options and Trading Strategies

TODAY's LIVE webinar on stocks, options and trading strategy is open to all!

Feb. 26, 1pm EST

Click HERE to join the PSW weekly webinar at 1 pm EST.

Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

This week, we also have a special presentation from Mike Anton of TradeExchange.com. It's a new service that we're excited to be a part of! 

Mike will show off the TradeExchange's new platform which you can try for free.  

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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.