Posts Tagged ‘Bank Non-Borrowed Excess Reserves’

Money Markets are the New Suspenders

Money Markets are the New Suspenders

By EB, courtesy of Zero Hedge

The Financial Times recently reported on the Fed’s latest exit strategy to eventually contain the inflation zombie:

 During the crisis, the Fed created roughly $800bn of additional bank reserves to finance asset purchases and loans. This total is likely to rise in the coming months as the central bank completes its asset purchases and the Treasury unwinds financing it provided to the Fed. Fed officials think they could raise interest rates even with this excess supply of reserves by offering to pay banks to deposit their surplus funds with it rather than lend them out. However, they also want to use reverse repos in tandem to soak up some of the excess reserves. Policymakers call this a “belt and braces approach”. [The latter, clearly a nod to the great Gekko.]

nice suspenders, zero hedgeTD touched on this last Thursday, and we will expand upon it here as it is particularly relevant to our ongoing theory that it is the proceeds from permanent open market operations (POMOs) and their close cousins that are driving equities.  Though this may be received wisdom to ZH readers, the Fed has done us the favor of providing additional evidence through the FT story.  A bit of background, as we are new contributors to this forum:

Money Supply:  Based on our previous research on the effects of swings in M2 non-seasonally adjusted money supply (M2) on the stock market, we were a bit surprised in July 09 by the resiliency of the rally, which continued in the face of such a dramatic contraction in M2.  The dismal Durable Goods report from last Friday confirms that the capital goods sector is still under significant pressure as a result of a lack of money in the general economy.  With banks not lending to normal businesses and consumer credit contracting equally as violently, what is the basis for this rally and from where does the never-ending flow of equities juice flow? 

Bank Non-Borrowed Excess Reserves:  The Fed statistic that most closely correlates with the 2009 equities run-up appears to be bank non-borrowed excess reserves (bank NBER), which


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Phil's Favorites

Political orientation predicts science denial - here's what that means for getting Americans vaccinated against COVID-19

 

Political orientation predicts science denial – here’s what that means for getting Americans vaccinated against COVID-19

Protesters at an anti-vaccine rally in Pennsylvania in August 2021. Weaver/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images

Courtesy of Adrian Bardon, Wake Forest University

Vaccine refusal is a major reason COVID-19 infections continue to surge in the U.S. Safe and effective vaccines have been available for months, b...



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Biotech/COVID-19

Political orientation predicts science denial - here's what that means for getting Americans vaccinated against COVID-19

 

Political orientation predicts science denial – here’s what that means for getting Americans vaccinated against COVID-19

Protesters at an anti-vaccine rally in Pennsylvania in August 2021. Weaver/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images

Courtesy of Adrian Bardon, Wake Forest University

Vaccine refusal is a major reason COVID-19 infections continue to surge in the U.S. Safe and effective vaccines have been available for months, b...



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Politics

Political orientation predicts science denial - here's what that means for getting Americans vaccinated against COVID-19

 

Political orientation predicts science denial – here’s what that means for getting Americans vaccinated against COVID-19

Protesters at an anti-vaccine rally in Pennsylvania in August 2021. Weaver/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images

Courtesy of Adrian Bardon, Wake Forest University

Vaccine refusal is a major reason COVID-19 infections continue to surge in the U.S. Safe and effective vaccines have been available for months, b...



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Zero Hedge

Chevron CEO Warns "New Dynamics" To Boost Energy Prices Amid Global Supply Crunch

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Soaring energy prices are stoking new concerns about a stagflationary environment of high prices and waning economic growth. Natural gas prices in Europe and the US are through the roof, and WTI futures are over $70 per barrel. 

Chevron Corp.'s CEO Mike Wirth spoke with Bloomberg on Wednesday and warned about elevated prices due to tightening supply. He said oil and ga...



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Digital Currencies

Animal Spirits: Crypto's Gateway Drug

 

Animal Spirits: Crypto’s Gateway Drug

Courtesy of Michael Batnick

Today’s Animal Spirits is brought to you by YCharts

On today’s show we discuss:

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Chart School

Gold and Silver Volume Waves Review

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

The sign says it all. The professionals want the public to focus on the words, to scare out the weak hands, but the color of the sign underlines the value in a money printing world, its gold stupid.

Point and figure (PnF) charts draw price waves with the sum of volume per wave. PnF charts high light true accumulation underneath price action. This is why Richard Wyckoff favored PnF charts.    

In the charts below we see price moving sideways to down, yet volume on up waves are greater than volume on down waves. At the moment there is no heavy selling on down waves. Or in other words price is being moved down at a low volume expense to allow accumulation at a lower price.

This action represents professionals building their...

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Promotions

Phil's Interview on Options Trading with TD Bank

TD Bank's host Bryan Rogers interviewed Phil on June 10 as part of TD's Options Education Month. If you missed the program, be sure to watch the video below. It should be required viewing for anyone trading or thinking about trading using options. 

Watch here:

TD's webinar with Phil (link) or right here at PSW

Screenshots of TD's slides illustrating Phil's examples:

 

 

&n...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Crude Oil Cleared For Blast Off On This Dual Breakout?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Is Crude Oil about to blast off and hit much higher prices? It might be worth being aware of what could be taking place this month in this important commodity!

Crude Oil has created lower highs over the past 13-years, since peaking back in 2008, along line (1).

It created a “Double Top at (2), then it proceeded to decline more than 60% in four months.

The countertrend rally in Crude Oil has it attempting to break above its 13-year falling resistance as well as its double top at (3).

A successful breakout at (3) would suggest Crude Oil is about to mo...



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ValueWalk

Managing Investments As A Charity Or Nonprofit

By Anna Peel. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Maintaining financial viability is a constant challenge for charities and nonprofit organizations.

Q4 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

The past year has underscored that challenge. The pandemic has not just affected investment returns – it’s also had serious implications for charitable activities and the ability to fundraise. For some organizations, it’s even raised doubts about whether they can continue to operate.

Finding ways to generate long-term, sustainable returns for ...



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Mapping The Market

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

 

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

Courtesy of Marcus Lu, Visual Capitalist

The Suez Canal: A Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

On March 23, 2021, a massive ship named Ever Given became lodged in the Suez Canal, completely blocking traffic in both directions. According to the Suez Canal Authority, the 1,312 foot long (400 m) container ship ran aground during a sandstorm that caused low visibility, impacting the ship’s navigation. The vessel is owned by Taiwanese shipping firm, Evergreen Marine.

With over 2...



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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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