Posts Tagged ‘Bernanke Put’

DAVID ROSENBERG ATTACKS THE FED’S INTENTIONAL PONZI APPROACH

DAVID ROSENBERG ATTACKS THE FED’S INTENTIONAL PONZI APPROACH

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist 

This weekend’s shocking admittal that the Fed is hoping QE will keep asset prices “higher than they otherwise would be” did not surprise David Rosenberg one bit.  In this morning’s note he said:

Brian Sack, a senior official at the New York Fed, had this to say about the powers of quantitative easing in a speech he just delivered:

“Some observers have argued that balance sheet changes, even if they influence longer-term interest rates, will not affect the economy because the transmission mechanism is broken. This point is overstated in my view. It is true that certain aspects of the transmission mechanism are clogged because of the credit constraints facing some households and businesses, and it is true that monetary policy cannot directly target those parties that are the most constrained. Nevertheless, balance sheet policy can still lower longer-term borrowing costs for many households and businesses, and it adds to household wealth by keeping asset prices higher than they otherwise would be. It seems highly unlikely that the economy is completely insensitive to borrowing costs and wealth, or to other changes in broad financial conditions.  ”

I just love that one comment to the effect that QE “adds to household wealth by keeping asset prices higher than they otherwise would be.”  When will these guys ever learn that maybe, just maybe, these Fed policies aimed at targeting asset prices at levels above their intrinsic values is probably not in the best interests of the nation? As our friend Marc Faber likes to say, the “Bernanke put” is cut from the same cloth as the fabled “Greenspan put” — only the strike price is different.

Imagine running a policy aimed at getting people to spend money based on an artificial level of asset values — what an admission.  Then again, this is what the Fed has been all about since the LTCM bailout of 1998.  We’re still not convinced after reading this sermon that this next “pull-another-rabbit-out-of-the-hat” experiment is going to end with very much success.  There is something to be said about paying for our mistakes and to have the Fed try to rekindle an asset-based economy that has only ended up in generating a series of burst bubbles over the last 12 years, not to mention encourage a lifestyle of living beyond our means,


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Should Investors Boycott the Stock Market?

Should Investors Boycott the Stock Market?

Courtesy of Frederick Sheehan of AuContrarian Blog

Investing in stocks is marketed as believing in America. Imbedded is the assumption that buying stocks is a fair deal. An investor might make or lose money, but the same chance was taken by all participants.

Although they have received little notice, the recently released 2004 Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) transcripts show how the Fed was channeling its attention and distorting markets for the benefit of favored institutional investors. (See AuContrarian.com "blog" The 2004 Fed Transcripts: A Methodical, Diabolical Destruction of America’s "Wealth".) The 2004 Transcripts were not so much a revelation as a confirmation. The Fed’s valiant attempt to prevent the economy from deflating (its claim at the time) by inflating asset markets is now a matter of public record. FOMC members explicitly stated they were working with hedge funds and pushing housing prices up.

We know how this ended. The Fed’s policy was successful until 2007. Then all asset prices collapsed, along with the institutions (banks and brokerages) that believed the Fed could prevent prices from ever falling. The backstop was known as the "Greenspan Put:" the belief that Chairman Greenspan’s Fed would always prevent market prices from falling.

A put option gives the buyer an option (a choice) to sell a security at a price previously negotiated with the seller. A put option is valuable if prices fall below the level of the negotiated price. An investor can buy a put with the right to sell the S&P 500 Index at 800. If the Index rises to 1100, the option is worthless. (Why sell it for $800 when it can be sold in the market for $1100?) If the S&P 500 Index falls to 600, the value of the put option is worth at least $200 to the owner of the put: the Index is trading for $600 but can be sold for $800. The put option is an insurance policy against a stock market collapse. The need for the average investor to understand such instruments will be discussed below.

The Greenspan Put begat the Bernanke Put, once the latter became chairman in 2006. Believers in the Put have reason for such faith. The 2004 transcripts show the FOMC toiled to fulfill this zeal. The zealots ignore the failure of the Put in 2007 and 2008.

The credit collapse of 2007 and…
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Zero Hedge

Prins: "We're Living In A Permanent Distortion"

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Via Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com,

Three time best-selling book author Nomi Prins says long before the Covid 19 crisis, the global economy was faltering big time.  The Fed stepped in with the start of massive money printing in late 2019 to save the day. 

Prins explains, “We were already in crisis mode as I mentioned at the end of my last book going into 2019."

&q...



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Phil's Favorites

Ethical challenges loom over decisions to resume in-person college classes

I don't see how universities can be safely reopened. Classes may have to shift to largely or only online. Dorms, if they reopen, would probably need to limit rooms to one person, and maybe only for students without other options. This would obviously be a financial disaster for many colleges and millions of people. The federal government would ideally step in to help universities and employees survive financially. Any thoughts?

Ethical challenges loom over decisions to resume in-person college classes

It’s hard to social distance on campus. AP Photo/Rick Bowmer

Courtesy of Neta C. Crawford, ...



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Biotech/COVID-19

Ethical challenges loom over decisions to resume in-person college classes

I don't see how universities can be safely reopened. Classes may have to shift to largely or only online. Dorms, if they reopen, would probably need to limit rooms to one person, and maybe only for students without other options. This would obviously be a financial disaster for many colleges and millions of people. The federal government would ideally step in to help universities and employees survive financially. Any thoughts?

Ethical challenges loom over decisions to resume in-person college classes

It’s hard to social distance on campus. AP Photo/Rick Bowmer

Courtesy of Neta C. Crawford, ...



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ValueWalk

Facebook Stock Crashes Due To Ad Boycott - Key Investing Points

By Sven Carlin. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Facebook, Inc. (NASDAQ:FB) stock crashed 8.32% on Friday because of the announced ad boycott by many companies like Unilever, Coca Cola, recently Starbucks on Sunday that might push the stock down even more during this week.

Q2 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

However, investing is about knowing how to differentiate between the noise and fundamentals and we discuss Facebook's recent news and compare it to FB fundamentals.

  • Facebook stock crash
  • Ad boycott
  • Facebook stock volatility
  • Facebook's fundamentals
  • Be sure of volatility
  • My po...


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Chart School

Golds quick price move increases the odds of a correction

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Every market corrects, maybe profit taking, maybe of allowing those who missed out, to get in!


The current open interest on the gold contract looks to high after a very fast price move, it looks like 2008 may be repeating. A quick flushing out of the weak hands open interest may take place before a real advance in price takes place. The correction may be on the back of a wider sell off of risk assets (either before of after US elections) as all assets suffer contagion selling (just like 2008).

This blog view is a gold price correction of 10% to 20% range is a buying opportunity. Of course we may see  a very minor price correction but a long time correction, a price or time is correction is expected, we shall watch and...

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The Technical Traders

Wild Volatility Continues As US Markets Attempt To Establish New Trend

Courtesy of Technical Traders

We’ve continued to attempt to warn investors of the risks ahead for the US and global markets by generating these research posts and by providing very clear data supporting our conclusions.  Throughout the entire months of May and June, we’ve seen various economic data points report very mixed results – and in some cases, surprise numbers as a result of the deep economic collapse related to the COVID-19 virus event.  This research post should help to clear things up going forward for most traders/investors.

As technical traders, we attempt to digest these economic data factors into technical and price analysis while determining where and what ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Nasdaq 100 Relative Strength Testing 2000 Highs

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

The tech bubble didn’t end well. BUT it did tell us that the world was shifting into the technology age…

Since the Nasdaq 100 bottomed in 2002, the broader markets have turned over leadership to the technology sector.

This can be seen in today’s chart, highlighting the ratio of Nasdaq 100 to S&P 500 performance (on a “monthly” basis).

As you can see, the bars are in a rising bullish channel and have turned sharply higher since the 2018 stock market lows. This highlights the strength of the Nasdaq 100 and large-cap tech stocks.

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Lee's Free Thinking

These Charts Show COVID 19 Is Spreading in the US and Will Kill the Economy

 

These Charts Show COVID 19 Is Spreading in the US and Will Kill the Economy

Courtesy of  

The COVID 19 pandemic is, predictably, worsening again in much of the US. Only the Northeast, and to a lesser extent some Midwestern states, have been consistently improving. And that trend could also reverse as those states fully reopen.

The problem in the US seems to be widespread public resistance to recommended practices of social distancing and mask wearing. In countries where these practices have been practi...



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Digital Currencies

Blockchains can trace foods from farm to plate, but the industry is still behind the curve

 

Blockchains can trace foods from farm to plate, but the industry is still behind the curve

App-etising? LDprod

Courtesy of Michael Rogerson, University of Bath and Glenn Parry, University of Surrey

Food supply chains were vulnerable long before the coronavirus pandemic. Recent scandals have ranged from modern slavery ...



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Members' Corner

Coronavirus, 'Plandemic' and the seven traits of conspiratorial thinking

 

Coronavirus, 'Plandemic' and the seven traits of conspiratorial thinking

No matter the details of the plot, conspiracy theories follow common patterns of thought. Ranta Images/iStock/Getty Images Plus

Courtesy of John Cook, George Mason University; Sander van der Linden, University of Cambridge; Stephan Lewandowsky...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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