Posts Tagged ‘BONT’

Thrilling Thursday – Can We Make Another Billion Today?

Wheeeee!  

$1,129,860,000!  That’s how much money was made shorting 376,620 NYMEX contracts at $103 yesterday, as we planned!  Congratulations to those of you who got your share playing along with us and, to the manipulators who got stuck with the bill – screw you bastards, we have your number and we’re going to ring it now!  I called a cash-out at the $100 line in Member Chat as 2.9% was more of a drop than we expected in one day and we will re-load on the bounce as we cross back below the $100.50 line – as discussed in this morning’s Member Chat - assuming the Dollar has bottomed out at 74.35.

This isn’t complicated people – what’s the 2.5% line off of $103?  $100.425.  That’s where we’ll look for oil to consolidate but below that line we’ll be comfortable with our shorts again, looking for those next legs down to $98.88 (down 4%) and then $97.85, where we will once again look for a 20% retrace to $98.88 and then a nice short there when it fails.  So come on – you can play along at home – don’t miss out on making the next $1.129Bn!  

Meanwhile, what’s a 20% bounce off a $3 drop? 60 cents, right?  Where did oil bounce to in the futures?  $100.60?  This is not rocket science folks…  We teach these little tips to our Members every day at Philstockworld.  Sure you may find it disturbing that the chart we drew up (above) in early April is hit almost to the penny on the NYSE yesterday (2 months later) as it halted right on our red line – but that just shows us that Bots are running this market (as we keep telling you) and it also means that we can rely on our ranges and that makes it EASY to make good trading decisions.  

Also in Member Chat last night, I reviewed 8 short put ideas (bullish) that can net us over $3,000 in 15 days if we get a bounce and hold our "Must Hold" levels.  This is the nice thing about hedging – we make money on the way up OR on the way down and, when we are trading in a range – like we hopefully will this summer – then we make money both ways on a regular basis!  Let the market manipulators play their…
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eBay Call Options Active Ahead of Earnings

Today’s tickers: EBAY, NTAP, GT & BONT

EBAY - eBay, Inc. – At least one bullish options strategist is positioning for a rally in eBay’s shares ahead of the company’s first-quarter earnings report after the final bell on Wednesday. Shares in the operator of online marketplaces increased as much as 3.1% during the first half of the session to secure an intraday high of $32.94. It looks like one or more investors initiated debit call spreads, buying around 2,000 calls at the June $34 strike for an average premium of $1.04 per contract, and selling roughly 2,000 calls up at the June $36 strike at an average premium of $0.44 apiece. The average net cost of buying the spread amounts to $0.60 per contract. Thus, investors employing call spreads start making money in the event that eBay’s shares rally another 5.0% over today’s high of $32.94 to surpass the average breakeven price of $34.60 by expiration day in June. Maximum potential profits of $1.40 per contract are available on the position if the price of the underlying stock jumps 9.3% to exceed $36.00 at expiration. EBAY’s shares secured a 52-week high of $35.35 back on February 17, 2011.

NTAP - NetApp, Inc. – The provider of enterprise storage and data management software and hardware products and services appeared on our scanners today after sizable prints popped up in long-dated call and put options. Shares in NetApp are currently up 2.1% at $52.10 just after 11:45am. The stock was upgraded to ‘Outperform’ from ‘Sector Perform’ with a 12-month target share price of $64.00 at Pacific Crest this morning. Activity in NetApp LEAPS indicates one options player expects the price of the underlying to improve going forward. It looks like the trader initiated a bullish risk reversal, selling approximately 5,500 puts at the…
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Options Trader Sends Bullish Signal by Enacting Ratio Call Spread on Salesforce.com

Today’s tickers: CRM, CPB, VALE, GDX, CNX, SLV, OSIP, BONT, UA & XRT

CRM – Salesforce.com, Inc. – A large-volume ratio call spread on the provider of customer relationship management services this afternoon implies one options investor expects CRM shares to rally significantly by August expiration. Salesforce.com’s shares increased as much as 1.83% today to reach a new 52-week high of $81.23 during the current session. According to a Reuters report this weekend, analysts at Deutsche Bank maintain their ‘buy’ rating on the stock and raised their share price target on CRM to $110 from $100. The optimistic options trader populating the stock this afternoon purchased 13,000 calls at the August $85 strike for a premium of $5.00 apiece, and sold 26,000 calls at the higher August $100 strike for $1.05 each. Net premium paid by the investor for the transaction amounts to $2.90 per contract. Maximum available profits of $12.10 per contract accumulate for the trader if shares of the underlying stock surge at least 23% from the new 52-week high of $81.23 to reach $100.00 by August expiration. The investor starts to make money as long as CRM’s shares trade above the effective breakeven point at $87.90 ahead of expiration day.

CPB – Campbell Soup Co. – Options traders anticipating a sharp increase in the price of Campbell Soup Co.’s shares by November expiration scooped up record numbers of call options on the global manufacturer and marketer of branded convenience food products today. CPB’s shares traded 0.25% higher in late afternoon trading to $35.45, which is just off their current 52-week high of $35.80 (attained back on December 2, 2009). Campbell-bulls purchased approximately 5,200 calls at the November $40 strike for an average premium of $0.55 per contract. Investors holding these contracts are prepared to profit should Campbell’s share price jump 14.4% from the current price to exceed the average breakeven point to the upside at $40.55. Investors exchanged roughly 5,925 option contracts on CPB during the trading session, which represents 56% of the total existing open interest on the stock of 10,567 lots.

VALE – Vale S.A. – Diverse bullish options strategies employed on Brazilian metals and mining company, Vale S.A., today indicates investors are expecting the price of the iron-ore maker’s shares to appreciate in the next few months. Vale’s shares rallied 1.20% at the start of the session to an intraday high – and new…
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Motorola Business Split Creates Appetite for Options

Today’s tickers: MOT, ALL, BWLD, BONT & X

MOT – Motorola Inc. – The Shares are almost 8% higher at $7.20 on the news that the company will split into two with networks on one side and mobile devices on the other. Shares are on the move because this probably reflects management’s confidence in the turnaround for mobile devices. It appears that one option investor is looking for further upside and placed a 20,000 lot call option spread when shares were trading at about $6.95 this morning. The spread involved the purchase of now in-the-money April call options at the $6.00 strike, which cost $1.12. The buyer sold the same amount of $9.00 strike calls expiring at the same time for 7 cents to reduce the breakeven to $7.05 in two months. It is likely that this investor wants to take a stake in the company now that it’s announced this corporate split and as long as Motorola’s shares stay north of $6.00 in April, he will be able to exercise that option.

ALL – Allstate Corp. – Looks like a substantial amount of call option buying in the home and auto insurer today as its share price holds up relatively well in the face of a 1% loss for the major market averages. At $29.36 shares are off by just a nickel, possibly still sheltered by a 22.7% surge in revenue and earnings that exceeded investor hopes earlier in the week. Call option buying at the April expiration $31 strike has so far totaled more than 22,000 contracts. Buyers paying around 65 cents per contract for rights to get long of shares in the insurer should they rally by more than 5.6% in the next nine weeks are clearly banking on a rebound to the January peak above $31.50. Implied volatility has slumped in the aftermath of earnings further eroding the premiums today.

BWLD – Buffalo Wild Wings Inc. – An earnings miss earlier in the day from the Minneapolis-based restaurant operator attracted option investor attention today. The activity is curious simply because it’s contrarian. The share price slumped more than 12% earlier to $41.28 before steadying to $43.00. The decline in options implied volatility to 37% is twice the decline in the share price and is perhaps behind investors willingness to write almost 2,000 put options at the soon to expire February $40 strike. Premium sellers, who…
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Thrill-Ride Thursday – Retail Sales and Maybe Some Jobs?

Beware the data!

The first thing you will hear this morning is that COST had a 9% rise in sales, with International sales up a whopping 25%.  What you are less likely to hear is that COST sells a lot of gasoline, which has doubled in price since last December and, excluding inflation in gas prices, same-store sales are up just 2%, a tremendous miss of the 7.9% expected.  Out of the 25% increase in International sales, 15% is attributable to currency exchange so up 10% is the real number

This is nothing against Costco, I like that company, but it's a caution sign to look carefully at the retail numbers we're going to be seeing today as there are several outside factors that are skewing the results drastically – to the point where the numbers, whether good or bad, are almost meaningless.  It's also good to keep in mind that we are comping sales to the WORST CHRISTMAS EVER so anything less than double digit gains over last year is still pretty sad. 

Mish did a good job yesterday of pointing out the statistical nonsense known as the Non-Farm Payroll Report, where "Birth/Death" model revisions that were as much as 356,000 a month last year (January) make the data beyond useless for any kind of serious analysis.  Nonetheless, analyze it they will and if we manage to avoid posting our 24th CONSECUTIVE month of losses, surely they will be pouring champagne on CNBC and acting like Capitalism has once again triumphed over evil (evil being people without money who still want to live with dignity). 

 

Speaking of dignity – if you know 100 people in Nevada then, statistically, 3 of them went bankrupt this year, up 61% from last year as our economy "recovers".  In Tennessee, Georgia and Alabama, just 2 of your 100 friends filed while California, surprisingly "only" had one in 66 households file for bankruptcy so you can go almost a whole day and not run into someone who lost everything in California – too bad the same can't be said for the State overall!  California needs $21Bn over the next 18 months to keep the lights on.  This doesn't seem so bad, GMAC is losing $13Bn this quarter and we're bailing
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Phil's Favorites

The Trade Deficit Isn't the Boogeyman

 

The Trade Deficit Isn’t the Boogeyman

Courtesy of John Mauldin, Thoughts from the Frontline

I have to confess something: I run a huge trade deficit. It’s not with China or Mexico, but with Amazon. I buy all sorts of goods from them and Jeff Bezos has yet to spend a penny with me. It’s just not fair.

Sound ridiculous? That’s exactly what it is. Totally absurd. I like Amazon. I’m happy with the items the company ships to me and (I presume) Amazon is happy to receive my money. We both win.

The same kind of relationship exists between the US and China, although with a few twists we’ll discuss below. That’s not to say Chin...



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Zero Hedge

More Free Money For Banks: St Louis Fed Discloses 'A Carry Trade In Liquidity'

Courtesy of Mike Shedlock, MishTalk

Not only do banks earn free money on excess reserves, they can borrow money and make guaranteed free money on that.

The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis discusses the Carry Trade in Liquidity.

The IOER [interest on excess reserves] has been the effective ceiling of other short-term interest rates. The figure above compares the IOER with overnight rates on deposits and repos. ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

S&P Testing Strong Support, With Fear Levels High!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

This chart looks at the S&P 500 on a weekly basis over the past couple of years. Since the start of 2016, the S&P has spent the majority of the time inside rising channel (1).

In January the S&P hit the top of the rising channel and selling quickly took place, taking it down to test rising support in a matter of a couple of weeks.

The softness of late has the S&P facing rising channel support and its 200-day moving average at (2). 

CNN Fear & Greed Index-

...



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Insider Scoop

Marvell Holds Attractive Risk-Reward, BMO Says In Upgrade

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related MRVL Benzinga's Top Upgrades, Downgrades For October 16, 2018 The Week Ahead: Q3 Earnings Season, Canada Decriminalize...

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Digital Currencies

Tether Tumbles Below Critical $1 Threshold As Dollar-Pegged Crypto Doubts Soar

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Update: Careful to quickly assuage any potential loss of the narrative and 'full faith and credit' of the 'stablecoin', Tether released a statement on USDT drop:

"We would like to reiterate that although markets have shown temporary fluctuations in price, all USDT in circulation are sufficiently backed by U.S. dollars (USD) and that assets have always exceeded liabilities."

See, nothing to panic about.

*  *  *

The only cryptocurrency not rallying right now is the one pegged to the U.S. dolla...



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Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Oct 14, 2018

Courtesy of Blain.

Wednesday and Thursday finally brought some fireworks to a very complacent market.   The S&P 500 had not had a 1% move in 74 days until Wednesday’s drawdown.

Rising yields were nailed as the culprit but months of rallying eventually require some sort of shake out – whatever the catalyst.  Wednesday’s sell off was the worst day for the S&P 500 since February and the worst for the NASDAQ since June 2016.

The market losses are “a reaction from investors finally realizing we are in a higher interest-rate environment, and given the elevated level of stocks, market participants were likely looking for a reason to sell,” said Charlie Ripley, senior investment strategist for Allianz Investment Management. “Higher interest rates typically bring on tighter ...



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ValueWalk

Vilas Fund Up 55% In Q3; 3Q18 Letter: A Bull Market In Bearish Forecasts

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

The Vilas Fund, LP letter for the third quarter ended September 30, 2018; titled, “A Bull Market in Bearish Forecasts.”

Ever since the financial crisis, there has been a huge fascination with predictions of the next “big crash” right around the next corner. Whether it is Greece, Italy, Chinese debt, the “overvalued” stock market, the Shiller Ratio, Puerto Rico, underfunded pensions in Illinois and New Jersey, the Fed (both for QE a few years ago and now for removing QE), rising interest rates, Federal budget deficits, peaking profit margins, etc...



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Members' Corner

Why obvious lies still make good propaganda

 

This is very good; it's about "firehosing", a type of propaganda, and how it works.

Why obvious lies still make good propaganda

A 2016 report described Russian propaganda as:
• high in volume
• rapid, continuous and repetitive
• having no commitment to objective reality
• lacking consistency

...

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Biotech

Gene-editing technique CRISPR identifies dangerous breast cancer mutations

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Gene-editing technique CRISPR identifies dangerous breast cancer mutations

Breast cancer type 1 (BRCA1) is a human tumor suppressor gene, found in all humans. Its protein, also called by the synonym BRCA1, is responsible for repairing DNA. ibreakstock/Shutterstock.com

By Jay Shendure, University of Washington; Greg Findlay, ...



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Mapping The Market

Mistakes were Made. (And, Yes, by Me.)

Via Jean-Luc:

Famed investor reflecting on his mistakes:

Mistakes were Made. (And, Yes, by Me.)

One that stands out for me:

Instead of focusing on how value factors in general did in identifying attractive stocks, I rushed to proclaim price-to-sales the winner. That was, until it wasn’t. I guess there’s a reason for the proclamation “The king is dead, long live the king” when a monarchy changes hands. As we continued to update the book, price-to-sales was no longer the “best” single value factor, replaced by others, depending upon the time frames examined. I had also become a lot more sophisticated in my analysis—thanks to criticism of my earlier work—and realized that everything, including factors, moves in and out of favor, depending upon the market environment. I also realized...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

...

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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