Posts Tagged ‘BONT’

Thrilling Thursday – Can We Make Another Billion Today?

Wheeeee!  

$1,129,860,000!  That’s how much money was made shorting 376,620 NYMEX contracts at $103 yesterday, as we planned!  Congratulations to those of you who got your share playing along with us and, to the manipulators who got stuck with the bill – screw you bastards, we have your number and we’re going to ring it now!  I called a cash-out at the $100 line in Member Chat as 2.9% was more of a drop than we expected in one day and we will re-load on the bounce as we cross back below the $100.50 line – as discussed in this morning’s Member Chat - assuming the Dollar has bottomed out at 74.35.

This isn’t complicated people – what’s the 2.5% line off of $103?  $100.425.  That’s where we’ll look for oil to consolidate but below that line we’ll be comfortable with our shorts again, looking for those next legs down to $98.88 (down 4%) and then $97.85, where we will once again look for a 20% retrace to $98.88 and then a nice short there when it fails.  So come on – you can play along at home – don’t miss out on making the next $1.129Bn!  

Meanwhile, what’s a 20% bounce off a $3 drop? 60 cents, right?  Where did oil bounce to in the futures?  $100.60?  This is not rocket science folks…  We teach these little tips to our Members every day at Philstockworld.  Sure you may find it disturbing that the chart we drew up (above) in early April is hit almost to the penny on the NYSE yesterday (2 months later) as it halted right on our red line – but that just shows us that Bots are running this market (as we keep telling you) and it also means that we can rely on our ranges and that makes it EASY to make good trading decisions.  

Also in Member Chat last night, I reviewed 8 short put ideas (bullish) that can net us over $3,000 in 15 days if we get a bounce and hold our "Must Hold" levels.  This is the nice thing about hedging – we make money on the way up OR on the way down and, when we are trading in a range – like we hopefully will this summer – then we make money both ways on a regular basis!  Let the market manipulators play their…
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eBay Call Options Active Ahead of Earnings

Today’s tickers: EBAY, NTAP, GT & BONT

EBAY - eBay, Inc. – At least one bullish options strategist is positioning for a rally in eBay’s shares ahead of the company’s first-quarter earnings report after the final bell on Wednesday. Shares in the operator of online marketplaces increased as much as 3.1% during the first half of the session to secure an intraday high of $32.94. It looks like one or more investors initiated debit call spreads, buying around 2,000 calls at the June $34 strike for an average premium of $1.04 per contract, and selling roughly 2,000 calls up at the June $36 strike at an average premium of $0.44 apiece. The average net cost of buying the spread amounts to $0.60 per contract. Thus, investors employing call spreads start making money in the event that eBay’s shares rally another 5.0% over today’s high of $32.94 to surpass the average breakeven price of $34.60 by expiration day in June. Maximum potential profits of $1.40 per contract are available on the position if the price of the underlying stock jumps 9.3% to exceed $36.00 at expiration. EBAY’s shares secured a 52-week high of $35.35 back on February 17, 2011.

NTAP - NetApp, Inc. – The provider of enterprise storage and data management software and hardware products and services appeared on our scanners today after sizable prints popped up in long-dated call and put options. Shares in NetApp are currently up 2.1% at $52.10 just after 11:45am. The stock was upgraded to ‘Outperform’ from ‘Sector Perform’ with a 12-month target share price of $64.00 at Pacific Crest this morning. Activity in NetApp LEAPS indicates one options player expects the price of the underlying to improve going forward. It looks like the trader initiated a bullish risk reversal, selling approximately 5,500 puts at the…
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Options Trader Sends Bullish Signal by Enacting Ratio Call Spread on Salesforce.com

Today’s tickers: CRM, CPB, VALE, GDX, CNX, SLV, OSIP, BONT, UA & XRT

CRM – Salesforce.com, Inc. – A large-volume ratio call spread on the provider of customer relationship management services this afternoon implies one options investor expects CRM shares to rally significantly by August expiration. Salesforce.com’s shares increased as much as 1.83% today to reach a new 52-week high of $81.23 during the current session. According to a Reuters report this weekend, analysts at Deutsche Bank maintain their ‘buy’ rating on the stock and raised their share price target on CRM to $110 from $100. The optimistic options trader populating the stock this afternoon purchased 13,000 calls at the August $85 strike for a premium of $5.00 apiece, and sold 26,000 calls at the higher August $100 strike for $1.05 each. Net premium paid by the investor for the transaction amounts to $2.90 per contract. Maximum available profits of $12.10 per contract accumulate for the trader if shares of the underlying stock surge at least 23% from the new 52-week high of $81.23 to reach $100.00 by August expiration. The investor starts to make money as long as CRM’s shares trade above the effective breakeven point at $87.90 ahead of expiration day.

CPB – Campbell Soup Co. – Options traders anticipating a sharp increase in the price of Campbell Soup Co.’s shares by November expiration scooped up record numbers of call options on the global manufacturer and marketer of branded convenience food products today. CPB’s shares traded 0.25% higher in late afternoon trading to $35.45, which is just off their current 52-week high of $35.80 (attained back on December 2, 2009). Campbell-bulls purchased approximately 5,200 calls at the November $40 strike for an average premium of $0.55 per contract. Investors holding these contracts are prepared to profit should Campbell’s share price jump 14.4% from the current price to exceed the average breakeven point to the upside at $40.55. Investors exchanged roughly 5,925 option contracts on CPB during the trading session, which represents 56% of the total existing open interest on the stock of 10,567 lots.

VALE – Vale S.A. – Diverse bullish options strategies employed on Brazilian metals and mining company, Vale S.A., today indicates investors are expecting the price of the iron-ore maker’s shares to appreciate in the next few months. Vale’s shares rallied 1.20% at the start of the session to an intraday high – and new…
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Motorola Business Split Creates Appetite for Options

Today’s tickers: MOT, ALL, BWLD, BONT & X

MOT – Motorola Inc. – The Shares are almost 8% higher at $7.20 on the news that the company will split into two with networks on one side and mobile devices on the other. Shares are on the move because this probably reflects management’s confidence in the turnaround for mobile devices. It appears that one option investor is looking for further upside and placed a 20,000 lot call option spread when shares were trading at about $6.95 this morning. The spread involved the purchase of now in-the-money April call options at the $6.00 strike, which cost $1.12. The buyer sold the same amount of $9.00 strike calls expiring at the same time for 7 cents to reduce the breakeven to $7.05 in two months. It is likely that this investor wants to take a stake in the company now that it’s announced this corporate split and as long as Motorola’s shares stay north of $6.00 in April, he will be able to exercise that option.

ALL – Allstate Corp. – Looks like a substantial amount of call option buying in the home and auto insurer today as its share price holds up relatively well in the face of a 1% loss for the major market averages. At $29.36 shares are off by just a nickel, possibly still sheltered by a 22.7% surge in revenue and earnings that exceeded investor hopes earlier in the week. Call option buying at the April expiration $31 strike has so far totaled more than 22,000 contracts. Buyers paying around 65 cents per contract for rights to get long of shares in the insurer should they rally by more than 5.6% in the next nine weeks are clearly banking on a rebound to the January peak above $31.50. Implied volatility has slumped in the aftermath of earnings further eroding the premiums today.

BWLD – Buffalo Wild Wings Inc. – An earnings miss earlier in the day from the Minneapolis-based restaurant operator attracted option investor attention today. The activity is curious simply because it’s contrarian. The share price slumped more than 12% earlier to $41.28 before steadying to $43.00. The decline in options implied volatility to 37% is twice the decline in the share price and is perhaps behind investors willingness to write almost 2,000 put options at the soon to expire February $40 strike. Premium sellers, who…
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Thrill-Ride Thursday – Retail Sales and Maybe Some Jobs?

Beware the data!

The first thing you will hear this morning is that COST had a 9% rise in sales, with International sales up a whopping 25%.  What you are less likely to hear is that COST sells a lot of gasoline, which has doubled in price since last December and, excluding inflation in gas prices, same-store sales are up just 2%, a tremendous miss of the 7.9% expected.  Out of the 25% increase in International sales, 15% is attributable to currency exchange so up 10% is the real number

This is nothing against Costco, I like that company, but it's a caution sign to look carefully at the retail numbers we're going to be seeing today as there are several outside factors that are skewing the results drastically – to the point where the numbers, whether good or bad, are almost meaningless.  It's also good to keep in mind that we are comping sales to the WORST CHRISTMAS EVER so anything less than double digit gains over last year is still pretty sad. 

Mish did a good job yesterday of pointing out the statistical nonsense known as the Non-Farm Payroll Report, where "Birth/Death" model revisions that were as much as 356,000 a month last year (January) make the data beyond useless for any kind of serious analysis.  Nonetheless, analyze it they will and if we manage to avoid posting our 24th CONSECUTIVE month of losses, surely they will be pouring champagne on CNBC and acting like Capitalism has once again triumphed over evil (evil being people without money who still want to live with dignity). 

 

Speaking of dignity – if you know 100 people in Nevada then, statistically, 3 of them went bankrupt this year, up 61% from last year as our economy "recovers".  In Tennessee, Georgia and Alabama, just 2 of your 100 friends filed while California, surprisingly "only" had one in 66 households file for bankruptcy so you can go almost a whole day and not run into someone who lost everything in California – too bad the same can't be said for the State overall!  California needs $21Bn over the next 18 months to keep the lights on.  This doesn't seem so bad, GMAC is losing $13Bn this quarter and we're bailing
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Zero Hedge

Retail Buying Frenzy Lifts Robinhood As Ultra Rich Dump Stocks

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

The retail euphoria phase of the stock market bubble was supercharged during the virus lockdown where millennials, with no sports to watch, stuck in their parents' basements, unemployed, and receiving stimulus checks, decided to become day traders.

Many of these youngsters, with insurmountable debts and no savings, couldn't afford to build an elaborate trading desk to run a financial terminal, used their smartphones to trade via a popular trading app called Robinhood. 

The she...



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Phil's Favorites

Before Kamala Harris became Biden's running mate, Shirley Chisholm and other Black women aimed for the White House

 

Before Kamala Harris became Biden's running mate, Shirley Chisholm and other Black women aimed for the White House

Kamala Harris, a U.S. senator from California, endorsed Joe Biden for president in March. Now she is his vice presidential nominee. Jeff Kowalsky/AFP via Getty Images

Courtesy of Sharon Austin, University of Florida

U.S. Sen. Kamala Harris, the ...



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Biotech/COVID-19

Trillions in coronavirus spending is putting AOC's favorite economic theory to the test

 

Trillions in coronavirus spending is putting AOC's favorite economic theory to the test

The Fed can create all the money Uncle Sam needs. GeorgePeters/Getty Images

Courtesy of Steven Pressman, Colorado State University

French philosopher Voltaire famously quipped: “If God did not exist, it would be necessary to invent him.” Something similar can be said of modern monetary theory, also known as MMT, because it may be the economy’s only hope to get through the pandemic.

Coined by Australia...



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ValueWalk

Bonhoeffer Fund 2Q20 Commentary - Case Study: Antero Midstream

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Bonhoeffer Fund commentary for the second quarter ended July 2020, providing a case study on Antero Midstream Corp (NYSE:AM).

Q2 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

Dear Partner,

The Bonhoeffer Fund returned 21.7% net of fees in the second quarter of 2020. Given the unique portfolio Bonhoeffer manages, I have struggled to find an appropriate benchmark but have determined that the DFA International Small Cap Value Fund offers the closest representative comparison to Bonhoeffer....



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Doc Copper Bear Market Resistance Kiss In Play!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Is ole Doc Copper about to ends its 9-year bear market? I suspect we will find out the answer to the question very soon!

Doc Copper has created a series of higher lows inside the falling channel (1) since it peaked back in 2011.

The rally from the lows in March of this year, has Doc Copper testing the top of its falling channel as well as a support/resistance price zone at (2).

With Doc Copper still in a bear market (lower highs for 9-years), this price test comes into play as important resistance at (2).

If Doc Copper breaks out at (2), it would send...



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The Technical Traders

What Gold & Silver Bullion Bars and Coins to Own

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Join Mark Yaxley from SWP and I (Chris Vermeulen, Chief Market Strategist for Technical Traders Ltd.), as they tell you about gold and silver’s recent outbreak and what’s next for the precious metals market. Also, more importantly, what metal should you own more of, and what sizes and brand!

I provide in-depth information about the outlook for gold and silver from a technical analysis standpoint. In the second half of the video, Mark and I exchange ideas about the best ways to own precious metals, what form to buy it in, and other str...



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Chart School

Silver Big Channel

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Big channels are the sand pit of price action. Lets review some big trends of these past months.


GLD
- Moving higher to upper solid red line channel


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XAU
- Ready to pause, or simply explode.



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SILVER
- Ready to pause, or simply explode.


Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image i...



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Digital Currencies

Raoul Pal: "It May Not Be Worth Owning Any Asset Other Than Bitcoin"

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Authored by Turner Wright via CoinTelegraph.com,

Raoul Pal, CEO and founder of Real Vision, says Bitcoin may soon become his only asset for long-term investments.

image courtesy of CoinTelegraph ...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Members' Corner

Coronavirus, 'Plandemic' and the seven traits of conspiratorial thinking

 

Coronavirus, 'Plandemic' and the seven traits of conspiratorial thinking

No matter the details of the plot, conspiracy theories follow common patterns of thought. Ranta Images/iStock/Getty Images Plus

Courtesy of John Cook, George Mason University; Sander van der Linden, University of Cambridge; Stephan Lewandowsky...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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Promotions

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Feb. 26, 1pm EST

Click HERE to join the PSW weekly webinar at 1 pm EST.

Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

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Mike will show off the TradeExchange's new platform which you can try for free.  

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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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