Posts Tagged ‘Comstock Partners’

THE DIRE OUTLOOK FOR HOUSING

housing

THE DIRE OUTLOOK FOR HOUSING

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist

By Comstock Partners:

While the market has been focused on the Euro, China and the BP oil spill, the impending second wave of decline in the housing market has largely gone unnoticed.  Recent housing numbers have mostly been bolstered by the home buyers’ tax credit that expired on April 30th, the date when contracts had to be signed to qualify.  Sales, however, are not recorded until closing, which has to take place by June 30th.  Sales of new and existing houses may therefore show some further strength until then, but fade after that time.  (Sen. Reid has proposed extending the completion date to Sept. 30th, but only for those who qualified by April 30th.)

The point we’re getting to is that sales already appear to have declined significantly after the tax credit expiration.  We quote the following in a story from the weekend Wall Street Journal that did not seem to attract wide attention:

“.Ivy Zelman, chief executive of Zelman Associates, a research firm, estimates that sales of new homes nationwide in May were down 25% to 30% from April.  She warns that the weak May performance increases the chances of renewed price cuts by builders caught with too much inventory.

“Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National association of realtors estimated that contracts signed for home resales in May were down 20% to 30% from a year earlier. He expects June and July to remain fairly weak.”

“Now that the real estate market is not benefiting from tax-credit ’steroids, we’re probably going to see a sluggish second half,’ said Ron Peltier, chief executive officer of real-estate broker Home Services of America Inc.  Joblessness, or the fear of losing a job, continues to deter many potential buyers. Mr. Peltier said, and the large number of homes in foreclosure or heading that way is still putting pressure on prices in many areas.  Home Services.saw its home-purchase contracts signed in May fall by nearly 20% from a year earlier, or about twice the decline it was expecting.

“A national survey of real-estate agents by Credit Suisse, released Friday, shows that traffic at homes for sale was down in May to its lowest level since the financial crisis of late 2008.”

The overwhelming anecdotal evidence is supported by the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) purchase application index, probably the best leading indicator of future home…
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Phil's Favorites

What kind of Brexit will Britain now 'get done' after Boris Johnson's thumping election win?

 

What kind of Brexit will Britain now ‘get done’ after Boris Johnson’s thumping election win?

Courtesy of Tom Quinn, University of Essex

The Conservatives’ victory in the UK general election is at once a decisive moment of clarity and a harbinger of uncertainty. Prime Minister Boris Johnson called the election with a pledge to “get Brexit done”, and with his newly-won parliamentary majority, he is now in a position to do just that.

The shape of Brexit has already been defined by the withdrawal agreement Johnson negotiated with the EU in October. It en...



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Chart School

Funds are getting ready to move out of USA

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Just before the hang over in the US equity markets, money will move and take their well earned gains else where. Here is why.

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Charts in video.

US is in the late cycle boom.

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US stock market with the US dollar, they have risen together from 2012. A change of this will force money to move.


Cli...



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Zero Hedge

Pay Attention: Robots Are Killing The Millennial Worker

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

There is no doubt that a wave of automation is about to be unleashed on economies worldwide. 

In fact, the impact of automation on the labor market has become more of a political issue now than it ever has, with its impact on the labor force being cited as one of the main causes for the election of leaders like U.S. President Donal...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Euro Breakout In Play? Gold Bulls Sure Hope So!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

The Euro has spent much of the past 2 years trading in a down-trend.

Though precious metals like Gold have fared well, this has been a bit of a headwind because it means that the US Dollar has remained firm.

Big Test In Play for the Euro

The Euro is testing a confluence of important support just as the downtrend is narrowing and ready for a “break”. That support includes lower falling wedge support and the Euro’s long term up-trend support line (see points 1 and 2).

If the Euro can succeed in breaking out at (3), it would be bullis...



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Insider Scoop

8 Healthcare Stocks Moving In Friday's Pre-Market Session

Courtesy of Benzinga

Gainers
  • Sarepta Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ: SRPT) stock surged 36.4% to $137.00 during Friday's pre-market session. The market value of their outstanding shares is at $6.1 billion. The most recent rating by Janney Capital, on December 13, is at Buy, with a price target of $175.00.
  • GlaxoSmithKline, Inc. (NYSE: GSK) shares surged 1.1% to $46.44. The market value of their outstanding shares is at $112.9 billion. According to the most recent rating by UBS, on November 21, the current rating is at Buy.
  • AstraZeneca, Inc. (NYSE: ...


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Digital Currencies

Three Men Arrested In NJ For Running Alleged $722 Million Crypto Ponzi Scheme

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Authored by Kollen Post via CoinTelegraph.com,

United States authorities in New Jersey have announced the arrest of three men who are accused of defrauding investors of over $722 million as part of alleged crypto ponzie scheme BitClub Network, per a Dec. 10 announcement from the Dep...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Chart Shows the Fed Ramping Up Not QE - Funding Almost All Treasury Issuance

 

Chart Shows the Fed Ramping Up Not QE – Funding Almost All Treasury Issuance

Courtesy of Lee Adler, Wall Street Examiner 

The Fed is ramping up “Not QE” .

The Fed bought $2.2 billion in notes today in its POMO, “not QE,” operations. Actually $2.15 billion because they sold back a whole $50 million. Must have been a little glitch in the force.

This brings the Fed’s total outright purchases of Treasuries to $170 billion since it started Not QE, on September 17.

It also did $107 billion in gross new repo loans to Primary Dealers to buy Tre...



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Members' Corner

Sacha Baron Cohen Uses ADL Speech to Tear Apart Mark Zuckerberg and Facebook

 

Sacha Baron Cohen Uses ADL Speech to Tear Apart Mark Zuckerberg and Facebook

By Matt Wilstein

Excerpt:

Sacha Baron Cohen accepted the International Leadership Award at the Anti-Defamation League’s Never is Now summit on anti-Semitism and hate Thursday. And the comedian and actor used his keynote speech to single out the one Jewish-American who he believes is doing the most to facilitate “hate and violence” in America: Facebook founder and CEO Mark Zuckerberg.

He began with a joke at the Trump administration’s expense. “Thank you, ADL, for this recognition and your work in fighting racism, hate and bigotry,” Baron Cohen said, according to his prepared...



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The Technical Traders

VIX Warns Of Imminent Market Correction

Courtesy of Technical Traders

The VIX is warning that a market peak may be setting up in the global markets and that investors should be cautious of the extremely low price in the VIX. These extremely low prices in the VIX are typically followed by some type of increased volatility in the markets.

The US Federal Reserve continues to push an easy money policy and has recently begun acquiring more dept allowing a deeper move towards a Quantitative Easing stance. This move, along with investor confidence in the US markets, has prompted early warning signs that the market has reached near extreme levels/peaks. 

Vix Value Drops Before Monthly Expiration

When the VIX falls to levels below 12~13, this typically v...



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Biotech

Why telling people with diabetes to use Walmart insulin can be dangerous advice

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Why telling people with diabetes to use Walmart insulin can be dangerous advice

A vial of insulin. Prices for the drug, crucial for those with diabetes, have soared in recent years. Oleksandr Nagaiets/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Jeffrey Bennett, Vanderbilt University

About 7.4 million people ...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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Promotions

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Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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