Posts Tagged ‘economic reports’

Obama’s Job Approval Rating Sinks to New Low; Assessing the Odds Republicans Retake the House

Obama’s Job Approval Rating Sinks to New Low; Assessing the Odds Republicans Retake the House

Courtesy of Mish

A recent Gallup survey shows Obama Sees New Lows in Job Approval

President Obama’s job approval rating dipped to 44% for the week of Aug. 9-15, the lowest weekly average of his administration by one percentage point.

The drop in Obama’s weekly average was driven by particularly low ratings near the end of the week, with record-low three-day rolling averages of 42% for Aug. 12-14 and Aug. 13-15 polling. Prior to this weekend, Obama’s three-day low had been 44%. Additionally, Obama’s disapproval rating reached 50% for the first time in the Aug. 13-15 average.

The overall pattern of Obama’s job approval ratings within partisan groups is fairly stable. The 68-point difference between Democrats’ and Republicans’ approval ratings for Aug. 9-15 is in line with what has been the case for many weeks, while his 39% approval among independents is down slightly from the past several weeks.

Average Seat Loss

Gallup reports Avg. Midterm Seat Loss 36 for Presidents Below 50% Approval

On a historical basis, the Democrats under Jimmy Carter suffered the slimmest seat loss of a party whose president was below 50% approval, losing 11 seats in the 1978 midterms. More recently, Bill Clinton in 1994 and George W. Bush in 2006 saw their parties lose enough seats in the House to turn party control over to the opposition party when they had less than majority approval.

Assessing the Odds

It is virtually certain Democrats will lose seats in the upcoming election. Averages suggest 36 seats. Republicans need to pickup 40.

The approval rating at 12% for Republicans is probably not much different than an approval rating at 35%. They were not voting Democratic anyway.

Independents hold the key.

Looking at the second chart provides some clues. Independents overwhelmingly went to Obama in the Presidential election, as did the youth vote. Obama has literally abandoned youths who turned out en masse for him. Health care "reform" was financed by sticking it to young healthy workers and small businesses.

More importantly, a 35 point drop in the approval rating by independents looks ominous.

It would be interesting to see the approval rating of Carter by independents when he only lost 11 seats.

Another factor is economic data has generally been grim.

  • Initial unemployment


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Lagging GDP Confirms Consumer Slowdown

Lagging GDP Confirms Consumer Slowdown
The Information that was Missing from Last Friday’s GDP Report

[See also my interview with Rick, here. And more on Rick's data, here. - Ilene]

Courtesy of Richard Davis of the Consumer Metrics Institute, Inc.

The April 30th GDP report issued by the Bureau of Economic Analysis ("BEA") of the U. S. Department of Commerce was a freeze-frame quarterly snapshot of a highly dynamic economy — an economy that another source indicates was in significant transition while the snapshot was being taken.

Compared to the 4th quarter of 2009, the annualized growth rate of the GDP had dropped by 43%. Depending on your point of view this could be interpreted either as a glass that is "half-full" or a glass that is "half-empty":

1) The "half-full" reading would mean that the GDP numbers confirm that the recovery had at least moderated to a historically normal growth rate. In this scenario the good news would have been that "the economy is still growing," albeit at a historically normal rate. The bad news would have been that a normal growth rate would only warrant normal P/E ratios in the equity
markets.

2) The "half-empty" reading would have meant that the near halving of the GDP’s growth rate confirmed that (at the factory level) the economy had finally begun to "roll over". If so, the BEA’s announcement portends even lower readings in the quarters to follow.

What was clearly missing in the "half-full/half-empty" debate was a feel for whether the level seen in the snapshot’s glass was stable or still dropping. At the Consumer Metrics Institute our measurements of the web-based consumer "demand" side economy support the "half-empty" reading of the new GDP data. The new GDP numbers (which are subject to at least two revisions) agree with where our "Daily Growth Index" was on November 24th, 2009, 18 weeks prior to the end of 2010′s first calendar quarter — and when that index was in precipitous decline.

Our indexes capture consumer activities in the "demand" side of the economy by mining consumer internet tracking data on a daily basis. This consumer "demand" flows downstream economically to the "supply" side factories over the following 18 weeks:

http://www.consumerindexes.com/commentary_2010_dailygrowthindexvsgdp_full.gif

A look at our "Daily Growth Index" also shows that towards the end of November 2009 the "demand" side economic activity was dropping so quickly that a two week change in the sampling period would make a huge difference in the numbers being reported. If the sampling period had…
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Why big businesses move their headquarters around the world - tax, talent and trepidation

 

Why big businesses move their headquarters around the world – tax, talent and trepidation

Shutterstock

Courtesy of Carmen Raluca Stoian, University of Kent

Ever since the EU referendum of 2016, well-known companies have announced decisions to relocate outside of the UK. Electronic giant Panasonic has gone to Amsterdam, where ...



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Zero Hedge

The Market's Thin Red Line Exposed

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Authored by Sven Henrich via NorthmanTrader.com,

As the one way market squeeze continues relentlessly for its 9th week in a row there’s a thin red line everybody is watching, or at least should be watching. Well, maybe nobody is watching it, but I am.

Trend lines are very important to these markets and I’ve talked about them at length before. On a log basis ma...



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ValueWalk

KHC To Be Bought Out By Berkshire: Here Is Why Its A Possibility

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Whitney Tilson’s email to investors discussing buyer beware of consumer staples sellers; Stamps.com Inc. (NASDAQ:STMP) and The Kraft Heinz Company (NASDAQ:KHC) blowups; Will Buffett buy KHC?; Is the #3G model flawed?; Asia Wealth Summit; Theranos.

I’m sending out today’s email early because there’s so much juicy/timely stuff…

Q4 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Giant Topping Pattern Could Be Forming, Says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

The first fact of the day; The long-term trend for tech remains up and the decline into the lows on Christmas Eve DID NOT break this trend!

This chart looks at NDX 100 ETF (QQQ) on a weekly basis over the past 14-years. For the past decade, since the lows in late 2009, QQQ has remained inside of rising channel (1). As you can see the decline into the end of the year lows, did nothing more than test support, which held and a strong rally has followed!

Over the past few months, QQQ could be forming a “Head & Shoulders&...



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Insider Scoop

Salesforce.com's Q4 Report Should Trigger Higher Valuation, Says Bullish Oppenheimer

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related CRM Oppenheimer Praises HubSpot's Execution, Downgrades On Valuation Benzinga's Top Upgrade...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Chart School

RTT browsing latest..

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Please review a collection of WWW browsing results. The information here is delayed by a few months, members get the most recent content.



Date Found: Thursday, 02 August 2018, 07:48:20 PM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.


Comment: $600 BN interest payments for US gov, print baby print



Date Found: Sunday, 05 August 2018, 09:22:26 PM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.


Comment: Hire FED interest rates always brings double trouble



Date Found: Monday, 06 August ...

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Digital Currencies

Cryptos Are Surging: Bitcoin, Ethereum Hit One-Month Highs As Institutions Dip Toes

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

Cryptocurrencies are surging while the US equity markets take the day off. Ethereum is up over 18% from Friday's 'close' and the rest of the crypto space is a sea of green. While no immediate catalyst (headline or technical level) is clear, increasing chatter over institutional investors dipping their toes in the space have prompted an extension of the positive trend.

A sea of green...

Source: Coin360

Ethereum is leading the charge follow...



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Biotech

Cancer: new DNA sequencing technique analyses tumours cell by cell to fight disease

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Cancer: new DNA sequencing technique analyses tumours cell by cell to fight disease

Illustration of acute lymphoblastic leukaemia, showing lymphoblasts in blood. Kateryna Kon/Shutterstock

Courtesy of Alba Rodriguez-Meira, University of Oxford and Adam Mead, University of Oxford

...

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Members' Corner

Why Trump Can't Learn

 

Bill Eddy (lawyer, therapist, author) predicted Trump's chaotic presidency based on his high-conflict personality, which was evident years ago. This post, written in 2017, references a prescient article Bill wrote before Trump even became president, 5 Reasons Trump Can’t Learn. ~ Ilene 

Why Trump Can’t Learn

Donald Trump by Gage Skidmore (...



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Mapping The Market

Trump: "I Won't Be Here" When It Blows Up

By Jean-Luc

Maybe we should simply try him for treason right now:

Trump on Coming Debt Crisis: ‘I Won’t Be Here’ When It Blows Up

The president thinks the balancing of the nation’s books is going to, ultimately, be a future president’s problem.

By Asawin Suebsaeng and Lachlan Markay, Daily Beast

The friction came to a head in early 2017 when senior officials offered Trump charts and graphics laying out the numbers and showing a “hockey stick” spike in the nationa...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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