Posts Tagged ‘FHA loans’

The FHA Is Being Run Like A Ponzi Scheme That Will Surely Implode

The FHA Is Being Run Like A Ponzi Scheme That Will Surely Implode

Courtesy of John Carney at Clusterstock/Business Insider 

The FHA is no longer the modest agency that helped make homes more affordable to generations of Americans.

Bernard Madoff Is Sentenced For Fraud And Perjury In Massive Ponzi Scheme

It has issued hundreds of billions of dollars of mortgages in the last two years. It’s support for the housing market is expected to redouble once again, growing to $1.5 trillion over the next five years.

Along the way to becoming a behemoth, the FHA has radically transformed its business. Very few people seem to understand how thorough going this transformation has been. In many ways, the FHA is being run like a Ponzi scheme. And like all such schemes, it is likely to eventually fail.

A recent paper titled “Reassessing FHA Risk” may have escaped your notice. It is written in a such a sober and academic tone that it hasn’t attracted the attention it deserves. What it describes is truly horrifying: The FHA is unable to assess the risks it is taken and the losses it will face will be massive. Because it does not appreciate its own risk, it is not adequately taking steps to limit the losses.

Prior to our financial crisis, the overwhelming majority of FHA loans were eventually refinanced into non-FHA loans. The authors of the paper take a loan by loan look at FHA insured mortgaged in LA Country. From 2004 to 2006, as many as 80% of loan terminations that the paper studies in LA Country were refinancing into non-FHA supported loans. Basically, people were refinancing to take advantage of better terms available elsewhere or to monetize more of their home equity. For the FHA, these exit refinancings completely removed the FHA’s exposure to these mortgages.

The FHA developed a risk model that allowed for a three-way classification of FHA insured mortgages.

  • “Good” – The mortgages that terminate with no claim on FHA insurance. Usually a prepayment of a loan on a house that is refinanced into a non-FHA mortgage.
  • “Bad” – Loans that terminate with an claim on the FHA. These were defaults where the mortgage holder was able to get the FHA to pay up.
  • “Ongoing” – Loans that were neither good nor bad.

Getting the mix of “Good” and “Bad” loans is important because it gave the FHA a view on what to expect for the “Ongoing” category. If too many loans…
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Phil's Favorites

How palm oil became the world's most hated, most used fat source

 

How palm oil became the world’s most hated, most used fat source

Oil palm fruit in North Aceh, Indonesia. Fachrul Reza / Barcroft Media via Getty Images

Courtesy of Jonathan E. Robins, Michigan Technological University

Palm oil is everywhere today: in food, soap, lipstick, even newspaper ink. It’s been called the world’s most hated crop because of its association with de...



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Biotech/COVID-19

The FDA's weak drug manufacturing oversight is a potentially deadly problem

 

The FDA’s weak drug manufacturing oversight is a potentially deadly problem

Though drug recalls are relatively uncommon in the U.S., reduced inspections increase the likelihood of manufacturing errors that slip through the cracks. AP Photo/Rafiq Maqbool

Courtesy of Adrian V. Hernandez, University of Connecticut and C. Michael White, University of Connecticut

The ...



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Zero Hedge

Buzzfeed Is Finally Going Public In SPAC Merger Valued At $1.5 Billion

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Update (1100ET): At long last, Buzzfeed is finally going public, a crowning career accomplishment for founder and CEO Jonah Peretti.

As we reported earlier, Peretti confirmed on Thursday morning that Buzzfeed had agreed to merge with the obscure 890 5th Avenue Partners (yes, it's named after the fictional headquarters of the Avengers), which raised $250 million in an IPO earlier this year.

The SPAC is led by CEO Emiliano Calemzuk and executive chairman Adam Rothstein, and counts NBCUniversal ad sale chief Linda YAccarino, former Buzzfeed President Greg Coleman, Time W...



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Digital Currencies

Will Bitcoin Crash the Stock Market?

 

Will Bitcoin Crash the Stock Market?

Courtesy of 

When the S&P 500 fell in March last year, it brought Bitcoin down with it. So if stocks can bring down Bitcoin, it’s reasonable to ask if Bitcoin can bring down stocks.*

If you thought the Bitcoin run-up to 60k was emblematic of investor** euphoria, then you probably wondered what would happen if it were to come crashing down. Would that take other high-flying areas of the market down with it?

It might be premature, but as of now, the answer is no.

...



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Chart School

RTT Plus Bulletin

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

RTT Plus private blog answer these questions over the last two weeks.

Ending: 2021-06-19

- Metal stocks very bullish after gold smash
- FED taper talk vs Basel 3
- Dollar devaluatioin before end of 2021
- COVID, Vaccine insight (off topic)
- The next play for the deep sate (off topic)
- The debt loaded USA can not break these economic stats


RTT Plus membership required to review.

RTT Plus members can include chart building services if you wish. If you you do not want chart building services select 'RTT Plus' only during the membership sign up process.

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Politics

The Ukraine Fallacies (with Victor Rud)

 

The Ukraine Fallacies (with Victor Rud)

Americans are confused about the history of Ukraine. That's just how Russia wants it.

Courtesy of Greg Olear, at PREVAIL

Greg is the author of Dirty Rubles: An Introduction to Trump/Russia 

...

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Promotions

Live Webinar with Phil on Option Strategies

 

June is TD Bank's Option Education Month, and today (Thursday, June 10) at 1 pm EST, Phil will speak with host Bryan Rogers about selling options and various option strategies that we use here at Phil's Stock World. Don't miss this event!

Click here to register for TD's live webinar with Phil.

 

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Kimble Charting Solutions

Crude Oil Cleared For Blast Off On This Dual Breakout?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Is Crude Oil about to blast off and hit much higher prices? It might be worth being aware of what could be taking place this month in this important commodity!

Crude Oil has created lower highs over the past 13-years, since peaking back in 2008, along line (1).

It created a “Double Top at (2), then it proceeded to decline more than 60% in four months.

The countertrend rally in Crude Oil has it attempting to break above its 13-year falling resistance as well as its double top at (3).

A successful breakout at (3) would suggest Crude Oil is about to mo...



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ValueWalk

Managing Investments As A Charity Or Nonprofit

By Anna Peel. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Maintaining financial viability is a constant challenge for charities and nonprofit organizations.

Q4 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

The past year has underscored that challenge. The pandemic has not just affected investment returns – it’s also had serious implications for charitable activities and the ability to fundraise. For some organizations, it’s even raised doubts about whether they can continue to operate.

Finding ways to generate long-term, sustainable returns for ...



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Mapping The Market

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

 

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

Courtesy of Marcus Lu, Visual Capitalist

The Suez Canal: A Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

On March 23, 2021, a massive ship named Ever Given became lodged in the Suez Canal, completely blocking traffic in both directions. According to the Suez Canal Authority, the 1,312 foot long (400 m) container ship ran aground during a sandstorm that caused low visibility, impacting the ship’s navigation. The vessel is owned by Taiwanese shipping firm, Evergreen Marine.

With over 2...



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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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