Posts Tagged ‘FHA risk’

The FHA Is Being Run Like A Ponzi Scheme That Will Surely Implode

The FHA Is Being Run Like A Ponzi Scheme That Will Surely Implode

Courtesy of John Carney at Clusterstock/Business Insider 

The FHA is no longer the modest agency that helped make homes more affordable to generations of Americans.

Bernard Madoff Is Sentenced For Fraud And Perjury In Massive Ponzi Scheme

It has issued hundreds of billions of dollars of mortgages in the last two years. It’s support for the housing market is expected to redouble once again, growing to $1.5 trillion over the next five years.

Along the way to becoming a behemoth, the FHA has radically transformed its business. Very few people seem to understand how thorough going this transformation has been. In many ways, the FHA is being run like a Ponzi scheme. And like all such schemes, it is likely to eventually fail.

A recent paper titled “Reassessing FHA Risk” may have escaped your notice. It is written in a such a sober and academic tone that it hasn’t attracted the attention it deserves. What it describes is truly horrifying: The FHA is unable to assess the risks it is taken and the losses it will face will be massive. Because it does not appreciate its own risk, it is not adequately taking steps to limit the losses.

Prior to our financial crisis, the overwhelming majority of FHA loans were eventually refinanced into non-FHA loans. The authors of the paper take a loan by loan look at FHA insured mortgaged in LA Country. From 2004 to 2006, as many as 80% of loan terminations that the paper studies in LA Country were refinancing into non-FHA supported loans. Basically, people were refinancing to take advantage of better terms available elsewhere or to monetize more of their home equity. For the FHA, these exit refinancings completely removed the FHA’s exposure to these mortgages.

The FHA developed a risk model that allowed for a three-way classification of FHA insured mortgages.

  • “Good” – The mortgages that terminate with no claim on FHA insurance. Usually a prepayment of a loan on a house that is refinanced into a non-FHA mortgage.
  • “Bad” – Loans that terminate with an claim on the FHA. These were defaults where the mortgage holder was able to get the FHA to pay up.
  • “Ongoing” – Loans that were neither good nor bad.

Getting the mix of “Good” and “Bad” loans is important because it gave the FHA a view on what to expect for the “Ongoing” category. If too many loans…
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Zero Hedge

"Apple Has Become What It Once Railed Against": Fortnite Maker Epic Games Sues Over App Store Ban

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

In a lawsuit that is taking the tech industry by surprise, especially considering the rumors, widely discounted, that Apple might buy TikTok, it appears Epic Games, the creator of "Fortnite", has just filed a lawsuit against Apple, accusing it of "unfair and anti-competitive actions....undertaken....to maintain its monopoly in two distinct, multibillion dollar markets: (i) the iOS App Distribution Market, and (ii) the iOS In-App Payment Processing Market (each as defined below)."

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Phil's Favorites

Trump's attempts to ban TikTok and other Chinese tech undermine global democracy

 

Trump's attempts to ban TikTok and other Chinese tech undermine global democracy

Banning TikTok in the United States poses a threat to global democracy. (Shutterstock)

Courtesy of Philip Mai, Ryerson University

The Trump administration aims to purge Chinese tech companies from the United States, and that has consequences for all of us.

U.S. President Donald Trump and his administration recently issued three new national security measures: an expansion of the State Department’s Clean Network initiative and two executive orders. The Clean Network initiative forbids the use of Chinese tech in the U.S. telecom ...



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Biotech/COVID-19

Up to 204,691 extra deaths in the US so far in this pandemic year

 

Up to 204,691 extra deaths in the US so far in this pandemic year

The pandemic leaves its mark in the number of lives ended. Ben Hasty/MediaNews Group/Reading Eagle via Getty Images

Courtesy of Ronald D. Fricker Jr., Virginia Tech

The Conversation, ...



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ValueWalk

Peter Schiff Expands Offering to Include Gold Chains in Hopes That Gen Z Will Buy Them

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

With precious metals making a massive resurgence in the past month, namely gold, Peter Schiff hopes to capitalize on the ostentatious nature of Gen Z, with their endearment for overpriced clothes and name brands. Schiff Gold is reported to start offering 18k cuban links, bracelets, and other various wearable accouterments.

Q2 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

“These kids need to understand that while they can personally invest in themselves by being dripp...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

History Says Gold Correction Could Lead to Big Rally!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Over a decade ago, Gold rallied past its 1980 highs and over $1000/oz at (1) on today’s chart.

That rise to new highs was met with a 30 percent correction at (2), followed by a blast off rally to new highs.

Is gold setting up for a repeat of its past?

Gold recently rallied past its 2011 highs and above $2000/oz. Could Gold soon turn lower for a sharp correction before another blast off toward $3000?

If so, Gold bulls should look for a pullback, before blasting higher. Stay tuned!

This article was first written fo...



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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Chart School

Silver Big Channel

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Big channels are the sand pit of price action. Lets review some big trends of these past months.


GLD
- Moving higher to upper solid red line channel


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XAU
- Ready to pause, or simply explode.



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SILVER
- Ready to pause, or simply explode.


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Digital Currencies

Raoul Pal: "It May Not Be Worth Owning Any Asset Other Than Bitcoin"

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Authored by Turner Wright via CoinTelegraph.com,

Raoul Pal, CEO and founder of Real Vision, says Bitcoin may soon become his only asset for long-term investments.

image courtesy of CoinTelegraph ...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Members' Corner

Coronavirus, 'Plandemic' and the seven traits of conspiratorial thinking

 

Coronavirus, 'Plandemic' and the seven traits of conspiratorial thinking

No matter the details of the plot, conspiracy theories follow common patterns of thought. Ranta Images/iStock/Getty Images Plus

Courtesy of John Cook, George Mason University; Sander van der Linden, University of Cambridge; Stephan Lewandowsky...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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Promotions

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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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