Posts Tagged ‘GDP contraction’

GDP Contraction Coming In Second Quarter 2010?

GDP Contraction Coming In Second Quarter 2010?

Courtesy of Mish

I have been speaking with Rick Davis at the Consumer Metrics Institute about leading economic indicators. Davis claims his data leads the GDP by about 17 weeks while noting that other so-called "leading indicators" are merely a reflection on the stock market and yield curve.

Davis captures his data solely from online transactions of real consumers, in real time.

Here are a four charts. The first chart shows the Consumer Conference Board LEI, not the Consumer Metrics Index.

Consumer Conference Board LEI vs. S&P 500

Davis writes:

Is the conference board LEI really leading anything or is it merely a reflection of the stock market? A look at the actual values of the LEI and the S&P 500 over the last four years confirms the indicator is really a coincident indicator for the equity markets, published once a month, three weeks in arrears.

Weighted Composite Index (WCI) vs. S&P 500

The above chart shows the Consumer Metrics Weighted Composite Index (WCI) vs. the S&P 500 Index. Watch what happens when the above data is offset by 5 months.

WCI vs. S&P 500 Shifted 5 Months

The Consumer Metrics website shows most of the WCI components advancing. However, housing and consumer spending account for roughly 60% of the index and those are contracting.

It is hard to make a case on the basis of so little data, but at least since 2006 we see evidence of actual leading.

However, the stock market does not always follow the economy nor is the stock market a leading indicator of the economy.

Please see Is the Stock Market a Leading Indicator? for a discussion.

Thus, as interesting as the above chart may be, I would not recommend using Consumer Metrics Data to project stock market movements. However, when a stock market is as lofty as this one, and a recovery is priced in that is not likely to happen, I would expect the stock market to decline if the economy tanks.

Daily Growth Index (DGI) vs. BEA GDP

The above chart shows Consumer Metrics Daily Growth Index (DGI) plotted against GDP.

According to Davis the DGI is 91-Day moving average of the WCI that corresponds to a trailing ‘quarter’, and is translated from a 100-base number into a +/- percentage. For example 99 on the WCI would roughly correspond…
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Kimble Charting Solutions

Bank Breakout Of Financial Crisis Highs or Double Topping Again?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

If the saying “So Goes The Banks, So Goes The Broad Market” is true, banks are facing a critical breakout/resistance test in my opinion.

This chart looks at Financials ETF (XLF) over the past 12-years. This chart reflects that a double top took place prior to the financial crisis getting started.

XLF has remained inside of rising channel (1) since the lows in 2012. It hit double resistance at (2), then it declined nearly 25%.

The decline then tested rising support at (3) and a strong rally has followed. The rally now has XL...



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Zero Hedge

"Panic, Pure Panic" - Chilean Peso Collapses To 800/USD, Blowing Through Record Lows

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

The Chilean peso extended a four-day losing streak on Tuesday, sinking by the most in eight years, to a new record low at 800/USD.

Source: Bloomberg

Bearish market sentiment, political chaos, and a national strike intended to ratchet up pressure on the government and its plans to change the constitution...

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Phil's Favorites

This Fed President Thinks Wall Street Banks Should Stop Whining for the Fed to Bail Them Out and Plan for their Own Liquidity

Courtesy of Pam Martens

Neel Kashkari, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis

Later this afternoon, Neel Kashkari, the outspoken President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, will deliver the keynote address at a conference on “Wisconsin and the National Economy” at the Madison campus of the University of Wisconsin. Tomorrow, he’ll be taking questions at a Town Hall in the University of Wisconsin’s Student Union on the La Crosse campus.

Given Kashkari’s recent remarks on his lack of sympathy for the whining New York bankers who are demanding a liquid...



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The Technical Traders

Welcome to the Zombie-land Of Investing - Part II

Courtesy of Technical Traders

In Part I of this research post, we highlight how the ES and Gold reacted 24+ months prior to the 2007-08 market peak and subsequent collapse in 2008-09.  The point we were trying to push out to our followers was that the current US stock market indexes are acting in a very similar formation within a very mature uptrend cycle.

We ended Part I with this chart, below, comparing 2006-08 with 2018-19.  Our intent was to highlight the new price hig...



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Insider Scoop

Stocks That Hit 52-Week Highs On Tuesday

Courtesy of Benzinga

This morning 131 companies set new 52-week highs.

Things to Consider:
  • Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) was the largest company by market cap to set a new 52-week high this morning.
  • Fast Lane Holdings (OTC: FLHI) was the smallest company by market cap to set a new 52-week high.
  • Advanced Energy Indus (NASDAQ: AEIS) was the biggest loser of the group, declining 8.94% after reaching its new 52-week high.

The stocks that set new 52-...



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Digital Currencies

3 Reasons Why One Trader Didn't "Manipulate" Bitcoin Price To $20K

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Authored by William Suberg via CoinTelegraph.com,

Bitcoin price highs in 2017 were not the result of a single trader on an exchange, the CEO of payment company Circle claims. In a series of tweets on Nov. 4, Jeremy Allaire disputed ...



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Chart School

Gold Gann and Cycle Review

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Gold has performed well, golden skies are here again. In fact it has been a straight line move, and this is typically unusual and a pause can be expected.

It seems the markets are happy again, new highs in the SP500, US 10 year interest rates look to re bound, negative interest may soften. The US FED has reversed their QT and now doing $250BN (not QE) repo. The main point is the FED has stopped QT, and will do QE forever. The evidence now is the FED put is under market risk and the possibility of excessive losses do not exist. 

Point: If in future if there is market risk, the FED will print it's way out of it.
Subject To: In this blog view. The above is so until the amount required rocks confidence in the US dollar as a reserve currency.&n...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Today's Fed POMO TOMO FOMC Alphabet Soup Unspin

Courtesy of Lee Adler

But make no mistake, if the Fed wants money rates to stay down by another quarter, it will need to imagineer even more money.

That’s on top of the $281 billion it has already imagineered into existence since addressing its “one-off” repo market emergency on September 17. This came via  “Temporary” Repo Man Operations money, and $70.6 billion in Permanent Open Market Operations (POMO) money.

By my calculations that averages out to $7.4 billion per business day. That works out to a monthly pace of $155 billion or so.

If they keep this up, it will be more than enough to absorb every penny of new Treasury supply. That supply had caused the system to run out of money in mid September.  This flood of paper had been inundati...



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Biotech

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

Courtesy of  , Visual Capitalist

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

As evidence of cannabis’ many benefits mounts, so does the interest from the global pharmaceutical industry, known as Big Pharma. The entrance of such behemoths will radically transform the cannabis industry—once heavily stigmatized, it is now a potentially game-changing source of growth for countless co...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Promotions

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In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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