Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Market Comments
by ilene - October 2nd, 2009 11:50 am
Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Market Comments
October 1, 2009
Featured Trades: (IDX), (INDONESIA), (FSLR), (STP), (YGE)
1) Was that nice for you, dear? Now that cash for clunkers has expired, new car sales have cratered. September is coming in at a 7 million unit run rate, lower than before the program started, and down 24% from already depressed YOY levels. It really makes you wonder what will happen when the other government stimulus programs run out. The $8,000 tax credit for first time home buyers ends November 30, and unless you have a deal in contract, the program is effectively over. That is thought to be behind the recent weakness in new home sales, the biggest beneficiaries of the program. Is this the beginning of the “square root,” or the “W.”
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2) If you are looking for another emerging market to add to your list of things to buy on dips, then take a look at Indonesia. The world’s largest Muslim country offers a combination that I love, a population with great demographics that is also a major energy and commodities exporter. The archipelago is the biggest country in Southeast Asia and a huge exporter of oil and LPG to Japan on long term contracts. (An old friend of mine torched their Borneo fields at the beginning of WWII, and spent four years in a Japanese prison camp for his troubles.) Other big exports include marvelous textiles, rubber, and increasingly rare tropical hardwoods. The global financial crisis only knocked their growth rate from 6.1% to 4.5%, and now it is back above 6%. No doubt, $63 billion of direct foreign investment into the country helped. A series of tax reforms promise to keep the train moving, cutting the top corporate rate from 30% in 2008 to 28% this year, and 25% next year. Wisdom Tree had the “wisdom” to launch the country’s first ETF (IDX) in January (what timing!), which became one of the best performers this year, rocketing over 300% from the lows to $60. Islamic inspired terrorism is still a lingering concern. I keep Indonesia in the category of highly volatile, high risk, high return frontier markets that you only want to buy on a big dip. Keep it on your…