Posts Tagged ‘inventory rebuilding’

GDP: 3 Years of Massive Downward Revisions; Inventory Adjustments Run their Course; Where to From Here? Fed’s Counterproductive Policies

GDP: 3 Years of Massive Downward Revisions; Inventory Adjustments Run their Course; Where to From Here? Fed’s Counterproductive Policies

Courtesy of Mish 

The BEA has finally admitted something anyone with a modicum of common sense already knew: The recession was far deeper and the "recovery" far weaker than previously reported.

Please consider BEA report Gross Domestic Product: Second Quarter 2010 (Advance Estimate) Revised Estimates: 2007 through First Quarter 2010

Real gross domestic product — the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States — increased at an annual rate of 2.4 percent in the second quarter of 2010, (that is, from the first quarter to the second quarter), according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 3.7 percent.

The real story in the report was not the continuing ratcheting down of GDP forward estimates, but rather massive backward revisions, most of them negative, dating back three full years.

Revision Lowlights

  • For 2006-2009, real GDP decreased at an average annual rate of 0.2 percent; in the previously published estimates, the growth rate of real GDP was 0.0 percent. From the fourth quarter of 2006 to the first quarter of 2010, real GDP increased at an average annual rate of 0.2 percent; in the previously published estimates, real GDP had increased at an average annual rate of 0.4 percent.
  • For the revision period, the change in real GDP was revised down for all 3 years: 0.2 percentage point for 2007, 0.4 percentage point for 2008, and 0.2 percentage point for 2009.
  • For the revision period, national income was revised down for all 3 years: 0.4 percent for 2007, 0.6 percent for 2008, and 0.4 percent for 2009.
  • For the revision period, corporate profits was revised down for all 3 years: 2.0 percent for 2007, 7.2 percent for 2008, and 3.9 percent for 2009.
  • For 2007, the largest contributors to the revision to real GDP growth were a downward revision to PCE, an upward revision to imports, and a downward revision to state and local government spending;
  • The percent change from fourth quarter to fourth quarter in real GDP was revised down from 2.5 percent to 2.3 percent for 2007, was revised down from a decrease of 1.9 percent to a decrease of 2.8 percent for


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Massive Layoffs Coming in NYC, Nevada, California, Colorado, Arizona, Everywhere

Massive Layoffs Coming in NYC, Nevada, California, Colorado, Arizona, Everywhere

Courtesy of Mish  
Miniature Businessman Walking Across Newspaper Stock Page With Briefcase

Cities, states, and municipalities are sinking by the minute. And unless unions agree to concessions (which they won’t) massive layoffs are coming everywhere you look. New York City is a prime example.

Please consider NYC May Lay Off 19,000 Workers If State Cuts Aid

New York City will have to lay off more than 10,000 public workers, in addition to 8,500 teachers, if the state legislature approves the $1.3 billion of cuts the governor proposed in his deficit-closing budget, Mayor Michael Bloomberg said on Monday.

The mayor, in a speech to the legislature, estimated 3,150 police officers would be cut, reducing the force’s "operational strength" to 1985 levels.

About 1,050 firefighters would have to be let go, along with 900 correctional officers, and the city would have to cut its daily inmate population by 1,900, he said. The number of at-risk children that service workers monitor would fall to 2,700 from 9,000, Bloomberg said.

The mayor, an independent, said Governor David Paterson’s budget "utterly fails the test of fairness." He told lawmakers: "You can’t lose control of the streets in terms of safety or cleanliness. You can’t lose control of the streets in terms of an ambulance or a firefighter showing up."

NYC mayor: State budget would force city layoffs

Check out the spin in this version of the same story: NYC mayor: State budget would force city layoffs 

The proposed state budget would force thousands of layoffs and could reduce New York City police staffing to the level of 1985, before the city emerged as a terrorism target, Mayor Michael Bloomberg warned legislators Monday.

Gov. David Paterson’s proposed 2010-11 budget would cut $1.5 billion in funding to the city, Bloomberg said — forcing layoffs of 9 percent of the city’s police officers; layoffs of 1,050 firefighters and the closing of some firehouses; and 8,500 teachers as part of what Bloomberg says is a $500 million cut in school aid.

In addition, aid for other services such as soup kitchens, homeless shelters and transit cards for students will be sapped with no way for the city to make up the funding.

"This executive budget would have devastating effects on essential services in New York City," Bloomberg said.

Pointing The Finger

It appears mayor…
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Zero Hedge

China's Gold Reserves Jump For 7th Month As Consumption, Production Slump

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

A new report from the China Gold Association, first examined by China Daily, said gold consumption in China reached 523.54 metric tons in 1H19, down 3.27% YoY, due mostly to offlining of production facilities, the demise of zombie company producers, and readjusting the industrial structure to a period of lower demand.

...



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Phil's Favorites

THIS IS A KEY WEEK FOR US MARKETS, GOLD, AND OIL

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Chris Vermeulen, Founder of The Technical Traders shares his thoughts on why this week is important for the US markets, gold, and oil. All of these are near strong support or resistance levels where if a break happens could result in an extended run. We breakdown the scenario for each market and level that are most important.

I can tell you that huge moves are starting to folding not only in real estate, but metals, stocks, and currencies. Some of these supercycles are going to last years. Brad Matheny goes into great detail with his simple to underst...



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The Technical Traders

THIS IS A KEY WEEK FOR US MARKETS, GOLD, AND OIL

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Chris Vermeulen, Founder of The Technical Traders shares his thoughts on why this week is important for the US markets, gold, and oil. All of these are near strong support or resistance levels where if a break happens could result in an extended run. We breakdown the scenario for each market and level that are most important.

I can tell you that huge moves are starting to folding not only in real estate, but metals, stocks, and currencies. Some of these supercycles are going to last years. Brad Matheny goes into great detail with his simple to underst...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Gold Is Knocking On Key Breakout Level

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

In 2013, Gold broke below its 23 percent Fibonacci retracement level and a bearish trend change took place at (1).

This was the beginning of a bigger decline that saw gold fall another 450 dollars.

Nearly six years later, Gold returns to this “breakdown” level in hopes of making it a new “breakout” level at (2).

If Gold can breakout at (2) it will send a very bullish message to the market.

Stay tuned – gold bulls are knocking on heaven’s door!

If pattern opportunities in Gold, Silver, Copper and Miners is imp...



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Insider Scoop

Earnings Scheduled For August 21, 2019

Courtesy of Benzinga

Companies Reporting Before The Bell
  • Analog Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ: ADI) is estimated to report quarterly earnings at $1.22 per share on revenue of $1.45 billion.
  • Lowe's Companies, Inc. (NYSE: LOW) is expected to report quarterly earnings at $2 per share on revenue of $20.94 billion.
  • Target Corporation (NYS...


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Lee's Free Thinking

Watch Out Bears! Fed POMO Is Back!

Courtesy of Lee Adler

That’s right. The Fed is doing POMO again.  POMO means Permanent Open Market Operations. It’s a fancy way of saying that the Fed is buying Treasuries, pumping money into the financial markets.

Over the past 6 days, the Fed has bought $8.6 billion in T-bills and coupons. These are the first regular Fed POMO Treasury operations since the Fed ended outright QE in 2014.

Who is the Fed buying those Treasuries from?

The Primary Dealers. Who are the Primary Dealers?  I’ll let the New York Fed tell you:

Primary dealers are trading counterparties of the New York Fed in its implementation of monetary policy. They are also expected to make markets for the New York Fed on behalf of its official accountholders as needed, and to bid on a ...



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Chart School

Bitcoin 2019 fractal with Gold 2013

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Funny how price action patterns repeat, double tops, head and shoulders. These are simply market fractals of supply and demand.

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Ref: US Crypto Holders Only Have a Few Days to Reply to the IRS 6173 Letter

Today's news from the US IRS has been blamed for the recent price slump, yet the bitcoin fractal like the gold fractal suggest the market players have set bitcoin up for a slump to $9000 USD long before the IRS news hit the wire.

Get the impression some market players missed out on the b...

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Digital Currencies

New Zealand Becomes 1st Country To Legalize Payment Of Salaries In Crypto

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have been on a persistent upswing this year, but they're still pretty volatile. But during a time when even some of the most developed economies in the word are watching their currencies bounce around like the Argentine peso (just take a look at a six-month chart for GBPUSD), New Zealand has decided to take the plunge and become the first country to legalize payment in bitcoin, the FT reports.

The ruling by New Zealand’s tax authority allows salaries and wages to b...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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Biotech

DNA testing companies offer telomere testing - but what does it tell you about aging and disease risk?

Reminder: We're is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

DNA testing companies offer telomere testing – but what does it tell you about aging and disease risk?

A telomere age test kit from Telomere Diagnostics Inc. and saliva. collection kit from 23andMe. Anna Hoychuk/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Patricia Opresko, University of Pittsburgh and Elise Fouquerel, ...



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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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