Posts Tagged ‘investment strategies’

The Shanghai market isn’t really predicting anything

The Shanghai market isn’t really predicting anything

Courtesy of Michael Pettis 

A man looks at an electronic board at a brokerage house in Shanghai

It has not been a good year for the Shanghai stock market.  Since its closing peak at 6092 in October 2007, the closing high in the past year or so on Shanghai’s SSE composite was 3471, on August 4 last year.  Since then the market has been pretty bleak.  The SSE Composite finished 2009 by dropping nearly 6% from that high, to close at 3277.

This year things got only worse.  By May 20 the market had dropped a further 22% to close at 2556, and then bounced around for the past ten days closing yesterday at 2568.  In my May 12 blog entry, I finished the piece by saying “Last Friday the SSE Composite closed at 2688.  I bet it is much higher by the end of the summer.” 

Obviously my timing was off.  Within a week of my prediction the market had managed to lose another 132 points.  I still believe that the market will be higher by the end of this summer, and that within weeks we will see moves by the regulators to prop it up.  With all the liquidity sloshing around, all we need is a reasonable period off stability before the market comes roaring back, I suspect.

So am I predicting a strong economy?  Not really.  It is tempting to read falling stock prices as an indication that Chinese investors believe that the economy is poised to slow dramatically, and if the market surges, that Chinese growth is back, but we should be very cautious about how we interpret the meaning of the gyrations in Chinese stocks. 

We’re used to thinking about stock markets as expected-cash-flow discounting machines, and we assume that stock price levels generally represent the market’s best estimate of future growth prospects, but this is not always the case, and it is certainly not the case in China.  I am often asked to comment on big price moves on the Chinese stock markets and what they mean about growth expectations, but I usually try to caution people from reading too much meaning into the market.

Three investment strategies

To see why, it is probably useful to understand how investors make trading decisions.  This blog entry is going to be a pretty abstract piece on how I think about the underlying dynamics of a well-functioning capital market, and how these…
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PCE SHOWS CONTINUING DEFLATION

PCE SHOWS CONTINUING DEFLATION

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist

From the always informative David Rosenberg:

“For those who have ongoing problem with how the government treats the consumer price index, there is a metric that is tried, tested and true, which is the market-based core PCE price index (the core excludes food and energy).  This metric was released yesterday and it eked a 0.3% QoQ annualized increase (basically flat) which was a record low for this particular data series.  The YoY trend, depicted below, slowed to an 11-year low of 1.2% in Q1 from 1.7% in Q4 and 2.1% a year ago.  The disinflation trend is unmistakable and augurs for income-based investment strategies.”

def PCE SHOWS CONTINUING DEFLATION

Source: Gluskin Sheff 


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Kimble Charting Solutions

Gold is Knocking on a Key Breakout Level

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

For the past 5 years, Gold prices have traded sideways. There were plenty of “trades” to be made, but that type of price action tends to grind out long-term bulls and bears.

You can see this in today’s “monthly” closing chart for Gold (shown below).

Gold bulls caught a break recently when Gold broke out above its multi-year downtrend line at (1) and (2). This spurred a big advance in metals & mining stocks.

Can Gold bugs and bulls keep the momentum going? We should find out shortly.

Gold is currently knocking on a key breakout resistance level (3). A bullish message will be sent to bulls if Gold can breakout above the 2017 m...



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Zero Hedge

Trump: "I Want 5G, Or Even 6G, Tech In The US As Soon As Possible"

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

President Trump has finally hit upon the real issue at the center of the US government's battle with Huawei: It's all about the technology. To wit, one reason why US allies and the UK and Germany have been so hesitant to cut ties with the Chinese telecoms giant is that, as its founder pointed out in a recent interview with Western media, there is no real alternative. US telecoms like Verizon still lag their Chinese rivals when it comes to 5G.

So, in a series of tweets sent Thursday morning, President Trump exclaimed that "I want 5G, and even 6G technology in the United States as soon as ...



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Phil's Favorites

Honda closure: Brexit is tipping the UK's car industry over the edge

 

Honda closure: Brexit is tipping the UK's car industry over the edge

Pajor Pawel / Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Jim Saker, Loughborough University

Britain’s car industry has faced a barrage of bad news in 2019. Honda is the latest casualty, announcing it will close its Swindon car plant, which employs 3,500 people, in 2021. It follows ...



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ValueWalk

It's Your Lucky Day - Whitney Tilson Has A Job Offer And A New Stock Idea

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Whitney Tilson’s email to investors discussing him hiring an analyst; his Stock Idea of the Day: Thor Industries; Tesla; KIPP Casino Night.

1) A final reminder that I’m looking to hire an analyst, based in Baltimore, for my new investment newsletter business, Empire Financial Research. The ideal candidate will have a passion for investing, a nose for cheap stocks and great writing skills. One of the analyst’s jobs will be helping me put together daily emails like this one, whic...



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Insider Scoop

3 Texas Roadhouse Analysts Agree: Wait For A Better Entry Point In Stock

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related TXRH Texas Roadhouse's Q4 Earnings Preview Earnings Scheduled For February 19, 2019 ...

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Chart School

RTT browsing latest..

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Please review a collection of WWW browsing results. The information here is delayed by a few months, members get the most recent content.



Date Found: Thursday, 02 August 2018, 07:48:20 PM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.


Comment: $600 BN interest payments for US gov, print baby print



Date Found: Sunday, 05 August 2018, 09:22:26 PM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.


Comment: Hire FED interest rates always brings double trouble



Date Found: Monday, 06 August ...

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Digital Currencies

Cryptos Are Surging: Bitcoin, Ethereum Hit One-Month Highs As Institutions Dip Toes

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

Cryptocurrencies are surging while the US equity markets take the day off. Ethereum is up over 18% from Friday's 'close' and the rest of the crypto space is a sea of green. While no immediate catalyst (headline or technical level) is clear, increasing chatter over institutional investors dipping their toes in the space have prompted an extension of the positive trend.

A sea of green...

Source: Coin360

Ethereum is leading the charge follow...



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Biotech

Cancer: new DNA sequencing technique analyses tumours cell by cell to fight disease

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Cancer: new DNA sequencing technique analyses tumours cell by cell to fight disease

Illustration of acute lymphoblastic leukaemia, showing lymphoblasts in blood. Kateryna Kon/Shutterstock

Courtesy of Alba Rodriguez-Meira, University of Oxford and Adam Mead, University of Oxford

...

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Members' Corner

Why Trump Can't Learn

 

Bill Eddy (lawyer, therapist, author) predicted Trump's chaotic presidency based on his high-conflict personality, which was evident years ago. This post, written in 2017, references a prescient article Bill wrote before Trump even became president, 5 Reasons Trump Can’t Learn. ~ Ilene 

Why Trump Can’t Learn

Donald Trump by Gage Skidmore (...



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Mapping The Market

Trump: "I Won't Be Here" When It Blows Up

By Jean-Luc

Maybe we should simply try him for treason right now:

Trump on Coming Debt Crisis: ‘I Won’t Be Here’ When It Blows Up

The president thinks the balancing of the nation’s books is going to, ultimately, be a future president’s problem.

By Asawin Suebsaeng and Lachlan Markay, Daily Beast

The friction came to a head in early 2017 when senior officials offered Trump charts and graphics laying out the numbers and showing a “hockey stick” spike in the nationa...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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