Posts Tagged ‘IYT’

Phillips 66 Puts Active

Today’s tickers: PSX, DKS & IYT

PSX - Phillips 66 Company – Shares in Phillips 66 are trading lower today, down 2.0% at $57.70 as of 10:55 a.m. ET. Options changing hands on the operator of refineries indicates some traders are bracing for the price of the underlying to extend losses this week. The most actively traded contracts on Phillips 66 as measured by volume are the Jul 05 ’13 $57.5 strike puts, with volume in excess of 5,400 contracts at present versus open interest of 2,436 contracts. It looks like traders purchased most of the volume for an average premium of $0.43 apiece this morning. Put buyers may profit at expiration at the end of a shortened U.S. trading week should shares in Phillips decline another 1.1% to settle below the average breakeven price of $57.07. Traders appear to be snapping up the $57.5 strike weekly puts for a second consecutive session given the roughly 2,300-lot overnight increase in put open interest at that strike. Time and sales data suggests most of the puts were purchased for an average premium of $0.35 each on Monday. Shares in Phillips 66, up 70% since this time last year, have declined roughly 18% off a record high of $70.52 reached back in March.

DKS - Dick’s Sporting Goods, Inc. – Options on Dick’s Sporting Goods are more active than usual today, with much of the trading traffic concentrated in August expiry puts. More than 10,400 of the Aug $45 strike puts have changed hands as of 11:50 a.m. ET versus open interest of 15 contracts. Shares in DKS are currently down 0.50% on the day at $49.75. Trading in the bearish options on DKS this morning is pushing up the premium required to purchase the contracts. Roughly 650 of the $45 puts were purchased at a…
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Which Way Wednesday – 1,333 or Bust!

SPY WEEKLY1,333.

That’s the number Art Cashin is looking for on the S&P as our breakout line.  I’ve been using 1,332 but Art is right as the bottom on the S&P in March, 2009 was 666.79 so, tecnically, 1,333.58 is a 100% gain on the S&P off that low, not 1,332, which was my lazy rounding off 666.  “Everyone’s got this psychological area of 1,333 [on the S&P 500]—they want to prove that we can double where we were from the panic lows,” Cashin told CNBC. “So later in the week, the bulls are going to circle the wagons and take another shot at it and that will tell us whether it’s a rest and recoup or not.”

Well, that pretty much sums things up.  Have a good day everybody…  

We had a good day yesterday with our bullish positions really starting to fly and our $25,000 Virtual Portfolio is up to a virtual cash position of $26,240 in day 12 with a fairly even mix of winners and losers in our still too-bearish mixture.  The mixture on the Nasdaq yesterday was also bearish and you wouldn’t know it from their down 5-points finish (0.17%), but declining volume yesterday was 1.35Bn vs. just 637M of advance.  

Fortunately (by some amazing coincidence that could not possibly have anything to do with IBanks masking their selling by pumping the top of the Nas while selling the rest), this 2:1 bearishness in volume did not scare off the after-hours crowd, who immediately popped the Nasdaq futures from 2,382 to 2,391, right back to Monday’s highs as if 2 days of selling never happened.  

IYT WEEKLYThe Dow is just as excited with 80 points worth of gains since 3:30 yesterday and the S&P is, of course, right up on their 100% line, as are the Transports (see Dave Fry’s chart), which we’ll be watching as they test the 95 mark on IYT.  I had mentioned to Members in Chat yesterday that the Transports were the key to breaking the S&P over the line and we discussed FDX’s amazing action in yesterday’s post that seemed like a Gang of 12 effort to manipulate the Transports ahead of Cashin’s predicted run at 1,333 – NO MATTER WHAT!

We agreed and we were so bullish on yesterday’s dip that we even bought NFLX!  Now that is bullish!  Just a short-term in and out but you…
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Bullish Player Rigs Up Call Spread on Oil Services HOLDRS Trust

Today’s tickers: OIH, AFFY, CAT, EBAY, IYT & RIG

OIH - Oil Services HOLDRS Trust – Shares in the Oil Services HOLDRS Trust are up 0.50% in the final hour of trading to secure an intraday- and new 52-week high of $147.34. One options player expecting shares to continue to hit new highs through February expiration initiated a debit call spread. Shares in the OIH, an issuer of depository receipts known as Oil Service HOLDRS that represent ownership in the common stock of companies engaged in drilling, well-site management and other services for the oil service industry, are up 5.25% year-to-date, and have surged 57.75% since touching down at a six-month low of $93.36 on July 1, 2010. The optimistic options trader looked to out-of-the-money calls expiring next month, buying 3,600 calls at the February $155 strike for a premium of $1.48 each, and selling the same number of calls up at the February $160 strike at a premium of $0.58 apiece. Net premium paid to initiate the spread amounts to $0.90 per contract. Thus, the investor is prepared to make money should the price of the underlying shares rally another 5.8% over today’s high of $147.34 to surpass the effective breakeven price of $155.90 by expiration day in February. Maximum potential profits of $4.10 per contract are available to the call-spreader should shares in the OIH jump 8.6% to trade above $160.00 before the contracts expire. Options implied volatility inched up 3.2% to 26.42% by 3:55pm in New York.

AFFY - Affymetrix, Inc. – Investors are buying call options on the biotechnology company today with shares in the Santa Clara, CA-based firm rising as much as 7.6% during the session to an intraday- and 6-month high of $5.67. Bullish players expecting shares in Affymetrix to continue to rally picked up…
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Pessimism Apparent as Goldman-Bears Play with Put Options

Today’s tickers: GS, MU, PEG, CX, XRX, IYT, EEM, HOG, HUM & ALL

GS – Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. – Posturing in out-of-the-money put options on Goldman Sachs today indicates some investors expect the investment banking firm’s share price could erode substantially ahead of May expiration. Goldman’s shares slipped 1.5% during the trading session to stand at $160.94 as of 2:30 pm (ET). One pessimistic player invested in a debit put spread in order to position for continued bearish movement in the price of the underlying stock through expiration next month. The trader picked up approximately 11,700 puts at the May $145 strike for an average premium of $1.91 each, and sold the same number of puts at the lower May $120 strike for $0.16 apiece. Net premium paid for the put transaction amounts to $1.75 per contract. The trader makes money if Goldman’s shares fall 11% to breach the effective breakeven point to the downside at $143.25. Maximum available profits of $23.25 per contract are available to the options player should the financial services firm’s share price plummet 25% to $120.00 ahead of expiration day in May. Other bearish players engaged in plain-vanilla put buying at the June $150 strike where at least 3,600 put contracts were picked up for an average premium of $4.73 each. Put-buyers at this strike stand ready to accrue profits if Goldman Sachs’ share price slips 9.75% lower to breach the average breakeven point at $145.27 by June expiration.

MU – Micron Technology Inc. – A large-volume short strangle play employed on the manufacturer of semiconductor devices today suggests one big options player expects Micron’s shares to trade within a specified range through expiration in October. Micron Technology’s shares are up 0.10% to $10.81 as of 2:50 pm (ET). It looks like one trader sold approximately 24,000 puts at the October $9.0 strike for a premium of $0.73 each, in combination with the sale of about the same number of calls at the higher October $12 strike for $0.98 apiece. Gross premium pocketed by the strangle-strategist amounts to $1.71 per contract. The investor keeps the full amount of premium received today as long as Micron’s shares trade within the boundaries of the strike prices described through expiration day. Short positions assumed in both call and put options expose the trader to losses in the event that Micron’s shares rally above the upper breakeven price…
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Weekend Wrap-Up, Still Trying to Get Bullish

Writer's BlockI’m having writer’s block this weekend

Usually when I can’t think of what to write it helps me to go over our virtual portfolios so I started this morning reviewing the Buy List but I didn’t get far because it was silly.  Of 43 plays on the buy list, 39 are doing well – too well in fact to the point where it’s hard for me, in good conscience, not to say let’s kill the whole thing and get back to cash as we’re up about 20% in 2 months and that’s just ridiculous – most people would call that a good year and go on vacation

The Buy List was 100% bullish and we did catch a good bottom on our early February entries.  I was gung ho bullish then because I felt comfortable that the 10,000 line on the Dow would prevail and that we were good for a run back to the top (10,700), following, more or less, the pattern we had in 2004 (see original post for charts).  Well that’s pretty much what’s happened since then but that’s not making me happy because I see no reason we won’t complete that pattern and begin falling off a cliff shortly.

As you all know, I’m not a big fan of TA, or patterns for that matter but the reason I started looking for patterns was to try to get a handle on how long  market could really keep going up before falling victim to exhaustion.  To me it seemed we weren’t at that point on Feb 6th but now that we’ve put in that big push back up – if we can’t punch up to new highs on all our indexes then I do think it’s time for the markets to take a break.

 

Clearly I’ve been too bearish for the past couple of weeks and we are now 224 points over 10,400 on the Dow which is where I turned bearish as the January data made me lose faith in our ability to get back to 10,700.  I should have stuck to the TA because we’re a lot closer to 10,700 than we are to 10,400.  With the Russell and Nasdaq exploding to their own new highs.  You can see though, from the above chart, why I do want to wait to see the NYSE, Dow and S&P confirm this move up – it’s not far now!
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Friday Chart Toppers – Breaking Up Is Hard To Do!

They say that breaking up is hard to do.

Well, not for this market it seems as we make new highs on ever decreasing volumes.  While I have been very skeptical of this rally, at some point you have to give in and go with the flow.  As I said at the end of yesterday's post, "We still have a bearish short-term stance but we will continue to watch our technicals and play the hand that’s dealt" and that's what we did as our 9:42 Alert to members contained 2 bullish was to cover our short plays with the TNA Apr $52/53 bull call spread at .45, which finished the day at .60 (up 33%) and the DIA Apr $106 calls at $1.08, which finished the day at $1.40 (up 29%) so not bad for scrambling for covers!

That's how we can hold our bearish positions as the tide moves against us.  As our final upside resistance levels begin to break, it may be time to break up, and not just cover, our short positions.  BUT, not until next week, when we'll know, we'll know that it's true and not just some pumped up reaction to this week's $150Bn Jobs Bill, which is really a $150Bn debt bill with 1/2 the money going to benefits extensions and $25Bn just to offset rising Medicaid costs that our states can no longer afford.  That leaves $50Bn for actual jobs or enough to put 1M people back to work at $50,000 for one year if it is used with 100% efficiency.  

We have 25M unemployed, discouraged and underemployed workers and that's a lot bigger of a hole than a $150Bn band-aid is likely to fill.  Still, we missed the last 250 points of the run-up and we're committed to miss 50 more (10,700) but, come next week we'll have to follow Mr. Cramer's advice, as he said yesterday: "Don’t be so skeptical that you write off very big, very real trends,” Cramer said, “that I still think, even from these levels, could make you a lot of money."  Let's take a look at "these" levels then:

We're still following the uptrending channel I drew on Tuesday's S&P chart with the MACD line up 50% in 3 days of trading – a difficult trick to keep up.  Aside from the Jobs Bill, we're getting
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Wild Weekly Wrap-Up

Wheee – that was fun!

Last week, I asked the question were we "Too Bearish or Just Too Early?"  I said in that wrap-up: "This Friday the market topped out about 150 points higher than last Friday, closer to the top of our range so we went much more bearish on Friday, perhaps too bearish considering this was the best Friday finish since Nov 6th and we haven’t had a down Monday since October 26th."  We did get the move up we feared on Monday but we stuck to our guns and had a fabulous week.

Even as the market was going against us Monday morning, my first Alert of the week to members at 9:44 said: "I’m still more inclined to look downward at: Dow 10,250, S&P 1,100, Nasdaq 2,187, NYSE 7,200 and Russell 600…  I’m still bearish because oil is weak, gold is weak, the financials (XLF at 14.30) are weak and most of the good news we are hearing is nothing but fluff."  That was a pretty good call as we hit our target levels yesterday and held them, so we flipped more bullish right at 11:30 on Friday, in what was some very good timing for our intra-day play. 

We are still on a stock market roller coaster that's going to have plenty of ups and down in the thin, holiday trading that will likely characterize the end of the year.  The market will be closed 2 Fridays in a row and good luck finding people around this Thursday or the next one so 6 proper trading days left to 2009 at best.  We got out – that drop was very satisfying and we've moved mainly to cash (our $100K Virtual Portfolio has $88,000 in cash at $107,249 at the end of it's first month).  Last week we were able to cash out the bull side, this week we got satisfaction from our bear plays and that leaves us footloose and fancy free to have fun the next two weeks.  If our day trading goes as well as it did on Friday, we can end this year with quite a bang.

Manic Monday – Dubai, CitiGroup and GS Move Markets

This picture says it all.  When you want to blow smoke
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Monday Market Movement

Now what?

I wish I knew.  As I said in the Weekly Wrap-Up, we've been stuck in a range – which has been fine for us as 60 of 80 trade ideas from the last 2 weeks were winners and will be more so if we flatline or head south from here, as that's how we've been playing the market.  It's not that we WANT the market to fall, just like your doctor doesn't WANT you to have the flu.  But, when you show up at the office with a sore throat, headache, fever and congestion – he's going to tell you you have the flu and write you a prescription to help you get better.  That's what we do!  We analyze the market symptoms and determine a course of treatment.  We don't need to be bullish or bearish on any given day as it's far, far more satisfying to be right.

In Member chat this morning, we were discussing leap strategies regarding entries on (in this example) KO and we looked at the benefits and pitfalls of trying to establish positions at the top of a big run.  I mentioned that KO is not something I'd be looking at now as they are too near the highs and don't have any particular near-term growth catalyst (and the strong dollar may hurt their earnings, which are more than 50% international). 

In the Wrap-Up you'll see that the kind of long plays we went for were more beaten-down stocks that we still like long-term like SPWRA, VLO, RMBS. WFR, PARD…  Even in a great bull market like this one that may or may not be topping, there are still plenty of bargains to be had and, if we don't see any good ones today, it's still better to wait until earnings and bargain-hunt there rather than buy stocks just because your cash is burning a hole in your pocket (we went to mainly cash the last 2 weeks and many members are getting antsy already).  

Actually, having cash in US Dollars may be an excellent investment at the moment as those dollars could gain 10% as the dollar bounces back.  Commodities have certainly continued to fall over the weekend with gold at $1,141, oil at $74.71, siver back to $18 and copper $3.18 (our watch level was $3.20).   Futures are pretty lame overall, down about 0.3% at
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Investor Plants WFC Short Straddle – Set to Bloom in April 2010

Today’s tickers: WFC, IYT, RYL, YHOO, XLE, MU, ADCT, KBH, DELL, NE & GPS

WFC – Wells Fargo & Co. – Shares of the financial holding company surrendered 1.5% today to stand at $27.88. One investor initiated a sold straddle on WFC in the April 2010 contract. The trader sold 10,000 calls at the April 32 strike for 1.59 apiece in conjunction with the sale of 10,000 now in-the-money puts at the same strike for 5.81 each. The gross premium on the transaction amounts to 7.40 per contract. The investor will retain the full premium if shares settle at $32.00 by expiration. The premium received acts as a buffer against losses in the event that shares swing in either direction away from the $32.00-level. However, the trader will accumulate losses if shares breach the upper breakeven price of $39.40, or if shares decline beneath the lower breakeven point at $24.60, by expiration in April.

IYT – iShares Dow Jones Transportation Average Index ETF – The exchange-traded fund, which measures the performance of the transportation sector of the U.S. equity market, appeared on our ‘hot by options volume’ market scanner this afternoon after one investor initiated a bearish put play. Shares of the fund moved 0.5% lower to $70.53 during the session. The trader established a put spread by purchasing 5,000 puts at the December 70 strike for 1.80 each, and by selling the same number of puts at the lower December 65 strike for 40 cents apiece. The net cost of the trade amounts to 1.40 per contract and provides downside protection beneath the breakeven price of $68.60 down to $65.00 through December’s expiration.

RYL – The Ryland Group, Inc. – Shares of homebuilder and mortgage-finance company, Ryland Group, declined nearly 4% this afternoon to stand at $18.86. Investors exchanging options on the stock today spread pessimistic sentiment through to expiration December. Traders sold 10,000 calls at the December 19 strike for an average premium of 1.10 apiece. The full 1.10 premium pocketed by investors is retained in full as long as shares of RYL remain below $19.00 through expiration day. Call-sellers do not seem to expect that shares of Ryland will recover before the start of 2010.

YHOO – Yahoo!, Inc. – We observed two different option strategies in play on Yahoo this afternoon. A large-volume sold strangle in the January 2011 contract suggests shares are likely to remain…
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Jobless Thursday – Max Keiser Bashes Banks

This is a good one!

 

I've never embedded a video before but you just have to see this so I'm learning a new trick.  Keiser puts out some gems like:

  • Goldmans Sachs, JPM, CitigGroup are all engaged in accounting fraud
  • The American peasants have got to be the stupidest people in the World today.  They don't mind becoming peasants, they don't mind living like peasants and, if that's the case, then we should do nothing to stop them from sliding into a peasant class. 
  • Banks are just stealing money outright from the World economy.
  • There is no liquidity being provided by the banks, they are hoarding their cash and non-disclosing their losses.
  • In part 2 of the video: "The reality is people are dying due to the actions of JPM, GS and the Wall Street Jihadists"

Max compares Wall Street bankers to suicide bombers and predicts it is only a matter of time before they are back before Congress with a gun to their heads threatening the destruction of America if they don't get another bailout.  I'm glad he said it an not me because I get enough hate mail from GS fans…  Keiser makes the point that, while the American people may put up with this nonsense, the leaders of Europe and Russia and China look at what's going on here and have no faith in our currency.

I think this is great as it saves me from ranting and raving this morning.  I had my fill in yesterday's post when I said the only way to play this market to the bull side is to suspend all logical disbelief.  Fortunately, we had a huge, ridiculous run-up in the morning that gave us tremendous shorting opportunties.  Even as the market was rising, in my 9:56 Alert to Members, we targeted the DIA $99 puts at $1.30 and those finished the day at $2 (up 54%) and in my 10:32 Alert to Members we sold the FAZ $19 puts for $1.80 and those finished the day at $1.20 (up 33%).  We also took short plays as the market topped on MS, IYT, CS, ICE, V, GMCR, DD, EBAY and even our beloved AAPL as the market was just too ridiculous looking to be bullish. …
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Phil's Favorites

Are Stock Buybacks Driving Wealth Inequality?

 

Are Stock Buybacks Driving Wealth Inequality?

Courtesy of 

 

 

It’s not lost on me that we’re posting this on a day where the S&P 500 trades above 3100 for the first time…

Ben Hunt joins Michael Batnick and Downtown Josh Brown at The Compound to explain what he’s so angry about – he sees wealth inequality as being driven by hijacked narratives about capitalism, stock buybacks, central banks and the managerial overclass orchestrating it all.

Fo...



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Zero Hedge

The Inevitable Finale Of The Nord Stream 2 Saga

Courtesy of Venand Meliksetian, OilPrice.com

Europe is quickly becoming one of the most important export destinations for gas exporters. Production is decreasing quickly due to political and technical developments. The next few decades are promising for exporters. Nord Stream 2 is arguably one of the most contentious projects currently under development. Denmark recently granted the last necessary permit to start construction activities in its EEZ and analysts now agree that the project’s completion is only a matter of time. In reality, the pipeline’s future was decided long before construction even started due to external factors such as Poland’s decision to d...



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The Technical Traders

What happens To The Global Economy If Oil Collapses Below $40 - Part II

Courtesy of Technical Traders

In the first part of this research article, we shared our ADL predictive modeling research from July 10th, 2019 where we suggested that Oil prices would begin to collapse to levels near, or below, $40 throughout November and December of 2019.  Our ADL modeling system suggests that oil prices may continue lower well into early 2020 where the price is exp...



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Insider Scoop

What Wall Street Thinks Of Google Cache

Courtesy of Benzinga

Alphabet, Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) (NASDAQ: GOOGL) subsidiary Google announced a new partnership with Citigroup Inc (NYSE: C) to launc...



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Digital Currencies

Is Bitcoin a Macro Asset?

 

Is Bitcoin a Macro Asset?

Courtesy of 

As part of Coindesk’s popup podcast series centered around today’s Invest conference, I answered a few questions for Nolan Bauerly about Bitcoin from a wealth management perspective. I decided in December of 2017 that investing directly into crypto currencies was unnecessary and not a good use of a portfolio’s allocation slots. I remain in this posture today but I am openminded about how this may change in the future.

You can listen to this short exchange below:

...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Silver Testing This Support For The First Time In 8-Years!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Its been a good while since Silver bulls could say that it is testing support. Well, this week that can be said! Will this support test hold? Silver Bulls sure hope so!

This chart looks at Silver Futures over the past 10-years. Silver has spent the majority of the past 8-years inside of the pink shaded falling channel, as it has created lower highs and lower lows.

Silver broke above the top of this falling channel around 90-days ago at (1). It quickly rallied over 15%, before creating a large bearish reversal pattern, around 5-weeks after the bre...



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Chart School

Gold Gann and Cycle Review

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Gold has performed well, golden skies are here again. In fact it has been a straight line move, and this is typically unusual and a pause can be expected.

It seems the markets are happy again, new highs in the SP500, US 10 year interest rates look to re bound, negative interest may soften. The US FED has reversed their QT and now doing $250BN (not QE) repo. The main point is the FED has stopped QT, and will do QE forever. The evidence now is the FED put is under market risk and the possibility of excessive losses do not exist. 

Point: If in future if there is market risk, the FED will print it's way out of it.
Subject To: In this blog view. The above is so until the amount required rocks confidence in the US dollar as a reserve currency.&n...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Today's Fed POMO TOMO FOMC Alphabet Soup Unspin

Courtesy of Lee Adler

But make no mistake, if the Fed wants money rates to stay down by another quarter, it will need to imagineer even more money.

That’s on top of the $281 billion it has already imagineered into existence since addressing its “one-off” repo market emergency on September 17. This came via  “Temporary” Repo Man Operations money, and $70.6 billion in Permanent Open Market Operations (POMO) money.

By my calculations that averages out to $7.4 billion per business day. That works out to a monthly pace of $155 billion or so.

If they keep this up, it will be more than enough to absorb every penny of new Treasury supply. That supply had caused the system to run out of money in mid September.  This flood of paper had been inundati...



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Biotech

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

Courtesy of  , Visual Capitalist

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

As evidence of cannabis’ many benefits mounts, so does the interest from the global pharmaceutical industry, known as Big Pharma. The entrance of such behemoths will radically transform the cannabis industry—once heavily stigmatized, it is now a potentially game-changing source of growth for countless co...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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