Posts Tagged ‘marginally attached workers’

USA Today: Jobs May Rebound In 2010 – OK But Where Will Unemployment Be?

USA Today: Jobs May Rebound In 2010 – OK But Where Will Unemployment Be?

Courtesy of Mish

The USA Today says Jobs May Rebound In 2010.

The article has some very nice interactive graphs showing state by state forecasts. The charts below that I copied are not interactive.

The chart above is confusing because it does not match the headline. The reason is the chart is showing third quarter 2009 vs. third quarter 2010, while the headline "rebound" is for the whole year.

I am very interested in projecting unemployment. Unfortunately charts in the article do not list numbers precisely. However we can roughly extrapolate from these charts.

I added the lines in blue. Without knowing the precise numbers I can easily be off by a million or more, but assuming the charts are to scale, the USA today forecast is approximately 143.5 million jobs by the end of the 2013.

I think that is an extremely optimistic number but let’s see what the unemployment rate would roughly look like if no jobs are added in 2010, then we hit 143.5 million employed at the end of 2013, with 2012 adding the most jobs.

For this scenario, I assumed the number of jobs to keep up with birthrate and immigration (plus return of marginally attached and discouraged workers) is 120,000 a month.

Projecting The USA Today Unemployment Rate

That certainly does not look very pretty does it?

Yet, I assumed some moderately favorable things.

1. No double dip recession
2. A shrinking monthly labor pool rate shrinking from +120,000 down to +70,000 by 2020 (this lowers the unemployment rate)
3. No second recession for an entire decade

Note the unemployment rate is above 10% at the end of 2013 and still above 8% at the end of the next decade.

You can download my spreadsheet and create your own charts automatically using your own assumptions. Click here to download the USA Today Unemployment Scenario as shown above.

Methodology Described

To understand the methodology to change the chart and to see my baseline scenario please see Mish Unemployment Projections Through 2020 – It Looks Grim.

My baseline scenario has the unemployment rate at 10% all the way out to 2015.

Mauldin Scenarios

For scenarios by John Mauldin please see Mapping Unemployment – You Make The Call
continue reading


Tags: , , , ,




Fed Official: Real US Unemployment Rate is 16%

Fed Official: Real US Unemployment Rate is 16%

Courtesy of Jesse’s Café Américain

Dennis Lockhart may be expressing his own views, but the figure of 16% he quotes is nothing more than the Bureau of Labor Statistics "U-6" measure of unemployment.

U-6 Total unemployed, plus all marginally attached workers, plus total employed part time for economic reasons,economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all marginally attached workers.

Here is a chart showing the ‘official’ U3 measure of unemployment and the U6 alternate measure. The chart also includes the unofficial unemployment rate projection done by John Williams of Shadowstats.com.


 

It appears that Dennis wanted to take this occasion to say that things were SO bad that there is little use in applying any sort of stimulus to the public, although there is plenty of stimulus required for the banks.

Breitbart
Real US unemployment rate at 16 pct: Fed official
Aug 26 02:25 PM US/Eastern

The real US unemployment rate is 16 percent if persons who have dropped out of the labor pool and those working less than they would like are counted, a Federal Reserve official said Wednesday.

"If one considers the people who would like a job but have stopped looking — so-called discouraged workers — and those who are working fewer hours than they want, the unemployment rate would move from the official 9.4 percent to 16 percent, said Atlanta Fed chief Dennis Lockhart.

He underscored that he was expressing his own views, which did "do not necessarily reflect those of my colleagues on the Federal Open Market Committee," the policy-setting body of the central bank.

Lockhart pointed out in a speech to a chamber of commerce in Chattanooga, Tennessee that those two categories of people are not taken into account in the Labor Department’s monthly report on the unemployment rate. The official July jobless rate was 9.4 percent.

Lockhart, who heads the Atlanta, Georgia, division of the Fed, is the first central bank official to acknowledge the depth of unemployment amid the worst US recession since the Great Depression.

Lockhart said the US economy was improving but "still fragile," and the beginning stages of a sluggish recovery were underway.

"My forecast for a slow recovery implies a protracted period of high unemployment," he said, adding that it would be difficult to stimulate
continue reading


Tags: , , , , ,




 
 
 

Phil's Favorites

How palm oil became the world's most hated, most used fat source

 

How palm oil became the world’s most hated, most used fat source

Oil palm fruit in North Aceh, Indonesia. Fachrul Reza / Barcroft Media via Getty Images

Courtesy of Jonathan E. Robins, Michigan Technological University

Palm oil is everywhere today: in food, soap, lipstick, even newspaper ink. It’s been called the world’s most hated crop because of its association with de...



more from Ilene

Biotech/COVID-19

The FDA's weak drug manufacturing oversight is a potentially deadly problem

 

The FDA’s weak drug manufacturing oversight is a potentially deadly problem

Though drug recalls are relatively uncommon in the U.S., reduced inspections increase the likelihood of manufacturing errors that slip through the cracks. AP Photo/Rafiq Maqbool

Courtesy of Adrian V. Hernandez, University of Connecticut and C. Michael White, University of Connecticut

The ...



more from Biotech/COVID-19

Zero Hedge

Buzzfeed Is Finally Going Public In SPAC Merger Valued At $1.5 Billion

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Update (1100ET): At long last, Buzzfeed is finally going public, a crowning career accomplishment for founder and CEO Jonah Peretti.

As we reported earlier, Peretti confirmed on Thursday morning that Buzzfeed had agreed to merge with the obscure 890 5th Avenue Partners (yes, it's named after the fictional headquarters of the Avengers), which raised $250 million in an IPO earlier this year.

The SPAC is led by CEO Emiliano Calemzuk and executive chairman Adam Rothstein, and counts NBCUniversal ad sale chief Linda YAccarino, former Buzzfeed President Greg Coleman, Time W...



more from Tyler

Digital Currencies

Will Bitcoin Crash the Stock Market?

 

Will Bitcoin Crash the Stock Market?

Courtesy of 

When the S&P 500 fell in March last year, it brought Bitcoin down with it. So if stocks can bring down Bitcoin, it’s reasonable to ask if Bitcoin can bring down stocks.*

If you thought the Bitcoin run-up to 60k was emblematic of investor** euphoria, then you probably wondered what would happen if it were to come crashing down. Would that take other high-flying areas of the market down with it?

It might be premature, but as of now, the answer is no.

...



more from Bitcoin

Chart School

RTT Plus Bulletin

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

RTT Plus private blog answer these questions over the last two weeks.

Ending: 2021-06-19

- Metal stocks very bullish after gold smash
- FED taper talk vs Basel 3
- Dollar devaluatioin before end of 2021
- COVID, Vaccine insight (off topic)
- The next play for the deep sate (off topic)
- The debt loaded USA can not break these economic stats


RTT Plus membership required to review.

RTT Plus members can include chart building services if you wish. If you you do not want chart building services select 'RTT Plus' only during the membership sign up process.

Sign up now!






...

more from Chart School

Politics

The Ukraine Fallacies (with Victor Rud)

 

The Ukraine Fallacies (with Victor Rud)

Americans are confused about the history of Ukraine. That's just how Russia wants it.

Courtesy of Greg Olear, at PREVAIL

Greg is the author of Dirty Rubles: An Introduction to Trump/Russia 

...

more from Politics

Promotions

Live Webinar with Phil on Option Strategies

 

June is TD Bank's Option Education Month, and today (Thursday, June 10) at 1 pm EST, Phil will speak with host Bryan Rogers about selling options and various option strategies that we use here at Phil's Stock World. Don't miss this event!

Click here to register for TD's live webinar with Phil.

 

...

more from Promotions

Kimble Charting Solutions

Crude Oil Cleared For Blast Off On This Dual Breakout?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Is Crude Oil about to blast off and hit much higher prices? It might be worth being aware of what could be taking place this month in this important commodity!

Crude Oil has created lower highs over the past 13-years, since peaking back in 2008, along line (1).

It created a “Double Top at (2), then it proceeded to decline more than 60% in four months.

The countertrend rally in Crude Oil has it attempting to break above its 13-year falling resistance as well as its double top at (3).

A successful breakout at (3) would suggest Crude Oil is about to mo...



more from Kimble C.S.

ValueWalk

Managing Investments As A Charity Or Nonprofit

By Anna Peel. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Maintaining financial viability is a constant challenge for charities and nonprofit organizations.

Q4 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

The past year has underscored that challenge. The pandemic has not just affected investment returns – it’s also had serious implications for charitable activities and the ability to fundraise. For some organizations, it’s even raised doubts about whether they can continue to operate.

Finding ways to generate long-term, sustainable returns for ...



more from ValueWalk

Mapping The Market

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

 

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

Courtesy of Marcus Lu, Visual Capitalist

The Suez Canal: A Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

On March 23, 2021, a massive ship named Ever Given became lodged in the Suez Canal, completely blocking traffic in both directions. According to the Suez Canal Authority, the 1,312 foot long (400 m) container ship ran aground during a sandstorm that caused low visibility, impacting the ship’s navigation. The vessel is owned by Taiwanese shipping firm, Evergreen Marine.

With over 2...



more from M.T.M.

The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



more from Tech. Traders

Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



more from Lee

Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider





About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

Learn more About Phil >>


As Seen On:




About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.