Posts Tagged ‘MONETARY THEORY’

ZeroHedge: Richard Russell Slams Robert Prechter, Praises Gold, Tells Readers Get Out Of Stocks.

Excellent analysis by Jesse covering a number of items, including Robert Prechter’s successes and failures, the contraction in credit, gold, the Federal Reserve, the financial elite, and the sad truth that America’s dominant industry is financial fraud. - Ilene 

ZeroHedge: Richard Russell Slams Robert Prechter, Praises Gold, Tells Readers Get Out Of Stocks.

Courtesy of JESSE’S CAFÉ AMÉRICAIN

First, Richard Russell does not ‘slam’ Prechter because he is a gentleman and doesn’t really ‘slam’ anyone. Fights between pundits can be fun in a voyeuristic way, but they are largely unproductive and generally used as a means of gaining attention, and providing distraction from what really matters, in the manner of panem et circenses. And sometimes people use provocative headlines to garner interest as well, in the manner of the New York Post and Daily News.

What Russell is saying is that Prechter is wrong in his interpretation of how deflation will play out, and what the endgame will look like. And he is saying almost the same thing that others, including Eric Janszen and myself, have been saying for quite some time, but in a slightly different ways.

Second, what Bob Prechter does not realize is that a contraction in credit does not imply a one for one decrease in ‘money’ just as an increase in credit these days does not result in a one for one increase in money. That is because credit is not money, it is the potential for money. Why more people don’t get that is beyond me. They trumpet the diminishing returns of money production for each marginal dollar of credit, but they don’t admit that this credit is vaporous, and as it dissipates it does not reduce money supply one for one either.

Third, and probably most importantly of all, even as the credit contracts, and the money supply contracts at some lesser rate as show in the money supply figures, the ‘basis of value’ of the money is also contracting. Since the US dollar is not based on gold, we have to look at what is providing the basis of its value. And what are those things, and what is happening to THEIR value.

And finally, there is a huge overhang of eurodollars out there, that are largely parked in Treasuries mostly of a moderate duration of three to ten years. By buying the Three and Ten year notes the Fed is ‘monetizing them’ and taking…
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Phil's Favorites

What Selloff?

 

What Selloff?

Courtesy of , at The Reformed Broker, originally posted on January 25, 22

Retail traders panicked yesterday. Not all, obviously, but they dumped their shares as a group. Here’s Bloomberg:

In a spasm of panicked selling early Monday, retail investors offloaded a net $1.36 billion worth of stock by noon, most of it in the first hour, according to data compiled by JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategist Peng Cheng. By his estimate, s...



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Politics

It's just a 'panic attack' - Russian media blames US for escalating Ukraine crisis

 

It’s just a ‘panic attack’ – Russian media blames US for escalating Ukraine crisis

A live broadcast of Russian President Vladimir Putin speaking is shown on Dec. 23, 2021, from a media control room in Russia. Eric Romanenko/TASS via Getty Images

Courtesy of Cynthia Hooper, College of the Holy Cross

As Western news outlets warn of a “countdow...



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ValueWalk

Bitcoin's Major Topping Pattern is Now Complete

By Louis Navellier. Originally published at ValueWalk.

For weekend reading, Louis Navellier offers the following commentary:

Q4 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

A Head And Shoulders Top For Bitcoin

Two months ago, I saw a euphoric climax in bitcoin, which I didn’t like. The futures ETF had just launched, and they were running those commercials starring Matt Damon on CNBC for crypto.com invoking Fortuna,...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Lumber Price Peak Would Raise Concerns For Equities!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

The supply chain has dealt with several issues over the past couple of years, as consumers and businesses have been forced to navigate a tricky “COVID” landscape.

Commodity prices (in general) have risen, while enduring some big swings.

Today we look at a commodity that plays an intricate role for consumers, and perhaps the equities market as well. Lumber. When lumber prices are high, new homes and buildings cost quite a bit more.

Above is a “weekly” chart of lumber prices. As you can see, there have been times when a lumber peak/bottom have be...



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Zero Hedge

Canadian 'Freedom Convoy' Receives First GoFundMe Payment After Temporary Halt

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Update (Friday 0711ET): Organizers of the "Freedom Convoy" have "received confirmation that GoFundMe has released our first batch of funds" following reports Thursday, the c...



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Biotech/COVID-19

Is the omicron variant Mother Nature's way of vaccinating the masses and curbing the pandemic?

 

Is the omicron variant Mother Nature’s way of vaccinating the masses and curbing the pandemic?

Preliminary research suggests that the omicron variant may potentially induce a robust immune response. Olga Siletskaya/Moment via Getty Images

Courtesy of Prakash Nagarkatti, University of South Carolina and Mitzi Nagarkatti, University of South Carolina

In the short time since...



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Digital Currencies

Why do you need a Bitcoin ETF when they already made you one?

 

Why do you need a Bitcoin ETF when they already made you one?

Courtesy of 

Chart via Piper Sandler’s new note on Coinbase. They don’t think it’s trading as a proxy for Bitcoin but I know it is. Here’s their take:

COIN shares have performed in-line with bitcoin since reaching an all-time closing high on 11/9/21. COIN shares and the price of bitcoin (which we use as a proxy for broader cryptocurrency pric...



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Chart School

Bitcoin Swings Down to Support

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Come on! Seriously do you think a 400% rally for Bitcoin was going to be given to the public easily. Without any pain! Come on muppets!



The uniformed (public) buy when price is rising or breaking new highs, the informed buy when price is falling or breaking lows.



The informed have to do it this way as they are large volume players and the only way they can buy large volume is to create chaos. The chaos brings to the market the weak holders and a forced sell. Price is moved to where the volume can be accumulated, in a bull trend that is down to critical support.



Of course if price is in a true bull market the 'chaos' created should not break critical long term trend signals, ...



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Promotions

Phil's Interview on Options Trading with TD Bank

TD Bank's host Bryan Rogers interviewed Phil on June 10 as part of TD's Options Education Month. If you missed the program, be sure to watch the video below. It should be required viewing for anyone trading or thinking about trading using options. 

Watch here:

TD's webinar with Phil (link) or right here at PSW

Screenshots of TD's slides illustrating Phil's examples:

 

 

&n...



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Mapping The Market

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

 

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

Courtesy of Marcus Lu, Visual Capitalist

The Suez Canal: A Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

On March 23, 2021, a massive ship named Ever Given became lodged in the Suez Canal, completely blocking traffic in both directions. According to the Suez Canal Authority, the 1,312 foot long (400 m) container ship ran aground during a sandstorm that caused low visibility, impacting the ship’s navigation. The vessel is owned by Taiwanese shipping firm, Evergreen Marine.

With over 2...



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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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