Posts Tagged ‘Niall Ferguson’

Words from the Wise?

Words from the Wise?

Courtesy of Michael Panzner at Financial Armageddon

I just got back from The Economist‘s "Buttonwood Gathering" in New York and thought I’d share a few of the more interesting (and, in some cases, quite enlightening) quotes (in no particular order) from the movers-and-shakers at the (well attended) conference:

Secretary Tim Geithner, United States Department of the Treasury:

"Generally, we did not do enough." (Referring to the failure to address growing concerns over excessive risk-taking in the period leading up to the financial crisis.) [Editor's note: understatement of the year?]

Stephen Roach, Chairman, Morgan Stanley Asia:

Those who are looking for a "V"-shaped recovery are in for "a rude awakening."

"The imbalances going into the crisis were large to begin with. Now, they are bigger than ever."

George Soros, Chairman, Soros Fund Management:

"Bankers have too much power." (Referring to the hold that Wall Street has over Washington.)

The "globalization of financial markets is built on false premises: namely, that markets can be left to their own devices."

Sheila C. Bair, Chairman, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation:

"Insured deposits are being used in ways that I don’t like to see."

Wilbur L. Ross Jr., Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, WL Ross & Co.:

People were focused on "risk-ignoring rates of return." (Describing one of the things that went helped bring about the financial crisis.)

If regulators had taken the time to visit a Countrywide Lending office, they would have seen something akin to "a Wall Street boiler room," rather than a bank branch. (Referring to regulator’s unwillingness to go out into the field and see what was really going on during the housing boom.)

"Government is its own systemic risk in the mortgage market."

Lawrence H. Summers, Director of the National Economic Council, The White House:

The root of most financial errors is "when you try to do today what you wished you had done yesterday."

"I can assure you that on Main Street, it is a very different conversation." (Referring to the contrast between the optimism on Wall Street and the more pessimistic mood of those struggling to get by in other parts of the country.)

"It is not the administrations’s view to bribe those who have been part of the problems


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Niall Ferguson on Charlie Rose

Niall Ferguson: Why did so much in H.G. Wells "War of the Worlds" (1898) come true? Paradox: Why was the 20th Century so destructive, arguably the most violent century of all times, and yet a century of great progress in other ways? – Ilene

Niall Ferguson on Charlie Rose

Courtesy of Trader Mark at Fund My Mutual Fund

The always interesting Niall Ferguson made an appearance on Charlie Rose, worth a listen. You can skip right to minute 33 of the video, as Carly "I ran Hewlett Packard into the ground, which qualifies me for political office" Fiorina sucks up oxygen in the first half of the hour.

 


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Obama Will Be Crushed Under A Mountain Of Debt

Obama Will Be Crushed Under A Mountain Of Debt — Niall Ferguson

obama bummed.jpg from the business insiderCourtesy of Henry Blodget at Clusterstock

Paul Krugman’s nemesis, Harvard professor Niall Ferguson, again opines that the U.S. and President Obama are steaming toward their demise.

The cause?

Massive, ballooning public debt.

The public intuitively knows that debt is bad, Ferguson says--perhaps because consumers now have it coming out of their ears.  This is why so many Americans disapprove of Obama’s handling of the economy.  And it’s why his future is threatened…

Niall Ferguson, FT:  According to the polls, voters disapprove of Congress by 61 per cent to 31 per cent. What’s more, the two parties would be neck and neck if the midterm elections were held today. The reason is clear. While the stimulus package had a sound macroeconomic rationale, the growing structural imbalance between federal revenue and spending scares the hell out of voters. A recent USA Today/Gallup poll showed that 59 per cent of Americans think government spending is excessive. Mr Obama receives his lowest approval ratings for his handling of the federal budget deficit.

Voters have good reason to disapprove. The deficit this year is likely to be $1,800bn (€1,270bn, £1,090bn). The gross federal debt is just about to bust the $12,100bn limit set by Congress. According to the Congressional Budget Office’s alternative fiscal scenario, public debt could rise from 44 per cent of GDP last year to 87 per cent by 2020. Spending on healthcare alone could rise from 16 to 22 per cent of GDP. The gap between spending and revenue in the latest House healthcare bill would be $65bn in just over a decade. The administration itself has no plan to balance the budget. Its own budget forecasts a trillion-dollar deficit as far ahead as 2019.

Mega-deficits as far as the eye can see are bad politics. They could be even worse economics. The nightmare scenario is that mounting fears over US creditworthiness push up long-term interest rates, thereby choking off the nascent recovery. After all, the great deleveraging still has a very long way to go. In relation to GDP, household net worth has slumped back to where it was 20 years ago. But household debt is still close to record highs at about 130 per cent of disposable income. Anyone expecting private consumption to bounce back is dreaming; real personal spending actually fell…
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Niall Ferguson: Paul Krugman Is Wrong, U.S. Borrowing Will Be Devastating

Courtesy of Henry Blodget at ClusterStock

Niall Ferguson: Paul Krugman Is Wrong, U.S. Borrowing Will Be Devastating

niallferguson3_tbi.jpgBritish Econ-god Niall Ferguson goes after US econ-god Paul Krugman, who made the mistake of being condescending to him on a panel last week.  The fate of the world hangs in the balance.

From the FT:

On Wednesday last week, yields on 10-year US Treasuries – generally seen as the benchmark for long-term interest rates – rose above 3.73 per cent. Once upon a time that would have been considered rather low. But the financial crisis has changed all that: at the end of last year, the yield on the 10-year fell to 2.06 per cent. In other words, long-term rates have risen by 167 basis points in the space of five months. In relative terms, that represents an 81 per cent jump.

Most commentators were unnerved by this development, coinciding as it did with warnings about the fiscal health of the US. For me, however, it was good news. For it settled a rather public argument between me and the Princeton economist Paul Krugman.

It is a brave or foolhardy man who picks a fight with Mr Krugman, the most recent recipient of the Nobel Prize for Economics. Yet a cat may look at a king, and sometimes a historian can challenge an economist.

Keep reading >

Synopsis:

Ferguson argues that rates are rising because the US is planning to borrow at least $10 trillion over the next 10 years (which we can’t afford to do).  Krugman says rates won’t rise no matter how much we spend because there’s a "global savings glut."

For now, it seems, Ferguson is right.  And it’s hard to see how those who have scrimped and saved their way to a global glut will want to vaporize the savings by investing them in collapsing dollars.

Even Krugman seems to concede this.  Ferguson again:

But the stimulus package only accounts for a part of the massive deficit the US federal government is projected to run this year. Borrowing is forecast to be $1,840bn – equivalent to around half of all federal outlays and 13 per cent of GDP. A deficit this size has


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Zero Hedge

The Masses Are Being Conditioned To Ignore The Economic Bubble

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Authored by Brandon Smith, via Birch Gold Group,

In the second week of October, after the “partial” U.S.-China trade deal was announced to much fanfare, I made this prediction:

"US and Chinese officials rarely waste an opportunity to use trade talk headlines to head-fake markets with false hope. Rumors of a &ldquo...



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Phil's Favorites

Chart Shows the Fed Ramping Up Not QE - Funding Almost All Treasury Issuance

 

Chart Shows the Fed Ramping Up Not QE – Funding Almost All Treasury Issuance

Courtesy of Lee Adler, Wall Street Examiner 

The Fed is ramping up “Not QE” .

The Fed bought $2.2 billion in notes today in its POMO, “not QE,” operations. Actually $2.15 billion because they sold back a whole $50 million. Must have been a little glitch in the force.

This brings the Fed’s total outright purchases of Treasuries to $170 billion since it started Not QE, on September 17.

It also did $107 billion in gross new repo loans to Primary Dealers to buy Tre...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Chart Shows the Fed Ramping Up Not QE - Funding Almost All Treasury Issuance

 

Chart Shows the Fed Ramping Up Not QE – Funding Almost All Treasury Issuance

Courtesy of Lee Adler, Wall Street Examiner 

The Fed is ramping up “Not QE” .

The Fed bought $2.2 billion in notes today in its POMO, “not QE,” operations. Actually $2.15 billion because they sold back a whole $50 million. Must have been a little glitch in the force.

This brings the Fed’s total outright purchases of Treasuries to $170 billion since it started Not QE, on September 17.

It also did $107 billion in gross new repo loans to Primary Dealers to buy Tre...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Health Care & Merck Working A Bullish Breakouts!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Health Care (XLV) ETF has lagged the S&P for the past few years. Is the lagging trend about to end? It sure could and we should find out very soon!

This chart looks at the Health Care/S&P Ratio (XLV/SPY), which reflects that it has created a series of lower highs and lower lows inside of falling channel (1). Over the past 6-months the ratio has created a series of higher lows, reflecting out performance of XLV to the broad markets.

The ratio is testing a support/resistance line at (2). If the ratio breaks out at (2), it would suggest that health care stocks wi...



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Insider Scoop

CMA CGM Bolsters Its LNG Fuel Supply With Total Deal

Courtesy of Benzinga

CMA CGM said it signed a deal with France's largest energy firm to supply liquefied natural gas (LNG) to power container ships.

The fourth-largest global carrier by capacity, CMA CGM said the deal with Total's marine fuels division will cover LNG supply at the Marseille-Fos fueling hub in the Mediterranean. Terms were not disclosed.

Total will supply approximately 270,000 metric tons of LNG per year over the next 10 years. CMA CGM said it will be the volume needed for its 15,000 twenty-foot equivalen...



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Digital Currencies

Chinese Crypto Exchange IDAX Locks Cold Wallet As CEO "Goes Missing"

Courtesy of ZeroHedge

By William Suberg via CoinTelegraph.com

Chinese cryptocurrency exchange IDAX has suspended deposits and withdrawals after its CEO allegedly disappeared.

In a blog post on Nov. 29, IDAX, which earlier this week warned it was seeing a run on withdrawals, said the whereabouts of Lei Guorong were currently unkno...



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Chart School

RTT browsing latest..

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Please review a collection of WWW browsing results. The information here is delayed by a few months, members get the most recent content.

Date Found: Tuesday, 09 July 2019, 01:48:48 AM


 

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Comment:
FED has no ammo in the next crisis!


Date Found: Friday, 12 July 2019, 02:38:12 AM
 

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Comment:
YIP Corporate debt blows up when econ...



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Members' Corner

Sacha Baron Cohen Uses ADL Speech to Tear Apart Mark Zuckerberg and Facebook

 

Sacha Baron Cohen Uses ADL Speech to Tear Apart Mark Zuckerberg and Facebook

By Matt Wilstein

Excerpt:

Sacha Baron Cohen accepted the International Leadership Award at the Anti-Defamation League’s Never is Now summit on anti-Semitism and hate Thursday. And the comedian and actor used his keynote speech to single out the one Jewish-American who he believes is doing the most to facilitate “hate and violence” in America: Facebook founder and CEO Mark Zuckerberg.

He began with a joke at the Trump administration’s expense. “Thank you, ADL, for this recognition and your work in fighting racism, hate and bigotry,” Baron Cohen said, according to his prepared...



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The Technical Traders

VIX Warns Of Imminent Market Correction

Courtesy of Technical Traders

The VIX is warning that a market peak may be setting up in the global markets and that investors should be cautious of the extremely low price in the VIX. These extremely low prices in the VIX are typically followed by some type of increased volatility in the markets.

The US Federal Reserve continues to push an easy money policy and has recently begun acquiring more dept allowing a deeper move towards a Quantitative Easing stance. This move, along with investor confidence in the US markets, has prompted early warning signs that the market has reached near extreme levels/peaks. 

Vix Value Drops Before Monthly Expiration

When the VIX falls to levels below 12~13, this typically v...



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Biotech

Why telling people with diabetes to use Walmart insulin can be dangerous advice

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Why telling people with diabetes to use Walmart insulin can be dangerous advice

A vial of insulin. Prices for the drug, crucial for those with diabetes, have soared in recent years. Oleksandr Nagaiets/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Jeffrey Bennett, Vanderbilt University

About 7.4 million people ...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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