Posts Tagged ‘outliers’

Six Autumn Outliers

Six Autumn Outliers

Courtesy of Joshua M Brown, The Reformed Broker 

So that there’s no confusion, these aren’t predictions or forecasts, they are Outliers.  I define an outlier as an event that is unlikely but possible.  I’m not betting the farm on this stuff, but I wouldn’t fall out of my chair if any of it happened between now and the end of the year.

Enough hedging, let’s go:

1. Silver Explodes:  Gold’s flashier little brother has had a decent go of it of late.  Silver prices just broke above the $19.50-ish level for only the third time since November 2009, and you know what they say about "the third time".  The big boys are usually buying gold right around now to get ahead of holiday demand and the wedding season in India, meanwhile the yellow metal is within melting distance of its high.  If the Slingshot Effect that silver prices experience during gold rallies takes hold, look out above.  My outlier here is that silver becomes the must-have investment of the season.

2. GOP Takes the House:  It is conventional wisdom that Republicans are going to gain some ground at the mid-term elections this November, but I’m going to go a step further and say that the Dems will lose more than 40 seats and along with them, control of the House.  Larry Sabato, a political scientist from the U of Virginia, has been quoted as saying that they could also lose as many as 8 or 9 senate seats as well.  This ain’t your Daddy’s Midterms, or maybe it is – there are shades of Newt Gingrich’s Contract with America tour-de-force against Bill Clinton halfway through his 1st term back in ’94.  Peeps is pissed right now.

3.  Google Buys Twitter:  This would be a real outlier if only it didn’t make so much damn sense.  What in the hell are they waiting for in Mountain View, CA?  They tried to build their own Twittery-thing (Google Buzz, anyone?), it wasn’t terrible but people don’t need two microblogging platforms even if Google’s did have the advantage of being bundled with Gmail.  This is a doable deal for Google financially and as incredible a phenomenon as Twitter is, it’s still not a business yet – just a phenomenon.  The Googster ($GOOG) could monetize it on Day 4.

4.  Ballmer is Audi 5000:  He’ll…
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Here's how airplane crash investigations work, according to an aviation safety expert

  Here's how airplane crash investigations work, according to an aviation safety expert

Courtesy of Daniel Kwasi Adjekum, University of North Dakota

The fatal crash of Ethiopian Airlines Flight 302 has resulted in the worldwide grounding of Boeing 737 Max aircraft. Investigators are probing the crash and ...



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Zero Hedge

Nomura: "Event Risk" Has Become A Joke

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

For a brief period yesterday, it seemed the stock rally may stall just as the market settled into its comfortable, pre-FOMC melt up. To be sure, there were numerous catalysts to fade the current 5 month high with Nomura listing 6 reasons why stocks may fade as we enter the "pullback window." Traders were additionally spooked by yesterday’s "spot up, VIX up, VVIX up" combo, which as Charlie McElligott notes, "always raises an eyebrow from market bystanders" although in retrospe...



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ValueWalk

When Preserving Capital Is Wiser Than Growing It

By Michelle Jones. Originally published at ValueWalk.

When it comes to investment performance, slow and steady generally wins the race when stretched out over long-term horizons. Even though this practice may not seem glamorous, one hedge fund explained in its year-end letter for 2018 that preserving capital is a wise move during times of extreme volatility.

NjoyHarmony / PixabayMaverick preserves capital

In his 2018 letter to investors, Maverick Managing Partner Lee Ainslie said when they wrote their first letter more than 25 years ago, they stated that the fund’s objective was to &...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Financials About To Let Down The Bull Market Again?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

If the saying So Goes The Banks, So Goes The Broad Market is true, what message are we receiving when financials have lagged the broad market for over a year?

This 2-pack looks at the XLF/SPX and EUFN/XLF ratios over the past couple of years.

The XLF/SPX ratio has created a series of lower highs for the past 12-months after peaking at (1). The EUFN/XLF ratio has created a series of lower highs for the past 18-months after peaking at (2). These falling trends look to be sending a negative divergence message to the broad markets if one believes that banks are important for bull markets.

Each ratio is near falling resistance at ...



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Insider Scoop

A Peek Into The Markets: US Stock Futures Climb Ahead Of Fed Meeting

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Pre-open movers

U.S. stock futures traded higher in early pre-market trade. The Federal Open Market Committee will begin its two-day policy meeting today. Data on factory orders for January will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.

Futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 103 points to 26,072.00, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 index futures gained 11 points to 2,852.00. Futures for the Nasdaq 100 index rose 27 points to 7,388.75.

...



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Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Mar 17, 2019

Courtesy of Blain.

A very good week for market bulls as the prior week’s selling was all reversed.  Last week we asked how many times can we rally on the same Federal Reserve juice.  It seems indefinitely.  Jerome Powell went on ’60 Minutes’ and talked dovish – that sparked a big rally Monday and it continued all week.  The only down day all week was Thursday when the progress on the U.S. – China trade deal seemed to hit a delay.

A meeting between President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping will be delayed until at least April, Bloomberg News reported, indicating that a bilateral trade deal will n...



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Biotech

Marijuana is a lot more than just THC - a pharmacologist looks at the untapped healing compounds

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Marijuana is a lot more than just THC - a pharmacologist looks at the untapped healing compounds

Assorted cannabis bud strains. Roxana Gonzalez/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of James David Adams, University of Southern California

Medical marijuana is legal in 33 states as of November 2018. Yet the federal government still insists marijuana has no legal u...



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Digital Currencies

Facebook's cryptocurrency: a financial expert breaks it down

 

Facebook's cryptocurrency: a financial expert breaks it down

Grejak/Shutterstock

Courtesy of Alistair Milne, Loughborough University

Facebook is reportedly preparing to launch its own version of Bitcoin, for use in its messaging applications, WhatsApp, Messenger and Instagram. Could this “Facecoin” be the long-awaited breakthrough by a global technology giant into the lucrative market for retail financial services? Or will...



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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Mapping The Market

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

A good start from :

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

Excerpt:

The threat to America is this: we have abandoned our core philosophy. Our first principle of this nation as a meritocracy, a free-market economy, where competition drives economic decision-making. In its place, we have allowed a malignancy to fester, a virulent pus-filled bastardized form of economics so corrosive in nature, so dangerously pestilent, that it presents an extinction-level threat to America – both the actual nation and the “idea” of America.

This all-encompassing mutant corruption saps men’s souls, crushes opportunities, and destroys economic mobility. Its a Smash & Grab system of ill-gotten re...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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