Posts Tagged ‘part-time jobs’

Jobs Decrease by 125,000, Rise by 100,000 Excluding Census; Unemployment Rate Drops to 9.5%; A Look at the Details

Jobs Decrease by 125,000, Rise by 100,000 Excluding Census; Unemployment Rate Drops to 9.5%; A Look at the Details

Courtesy of Mish 

This morning the BLS reported a decrease of 125,000 jobs. However, that reflects a decrease 225,000 temporary census workers. Last month there was an increase of 411,000 temporary census workers. Next month will also likely be negative due to the dismissal of more temporary workers.

Excluding the census effect, the economy added 100,000 jobs but interestingly 20,500 of them were private temporary jobs. Temporary jobs have become a way of life.

Excluding the census effect, government added 17,000 jobs. That is going to change in the coming months (possibly dramatically depending on Congressional stimulus actions) as states are forced to layoff workers for budgetary reasons.

That will be a good thing because Firing Public Union Workers Creates Jobs. Unfortunately, politicians and Keynesian clown economists will not see it that way.

Hidden beneath the surface the BLS Black Box – Birth Death Model added 145,000 jobs.

However, as I have pointed out many times before, the Birth/Death numbers cannot be subtracted straight up to get a raw number. It contributed to this month’s employment total for sure, but the BLS will not disclose by how much.

On the whole, this was an OK jobs report (depending on your expectations), yet perhaps as good as it gets for a while.

The unemployment rate dropped only because of a declining participation rate. Last month the number of unemployed was 15 million. This month it was 14.6 million. Clearly the economy did not add 400,000 jobs.

The drop in participation rate was not that surprising because (as I expected) some of the long-term unemployed stopped looking jobs, or opted for retirement.

Nonetheless, I still do not think the top in the unemployment rate is in and expect it may rise substantially later this year as the recovery heads into a coma and states are forced to cut back workers.

Employment and Recessions

Calculated risk has a great chart showing the effects of census hiring as well as the extremely weak hiring in this recovery.

click on chart for sharper image

The dotted lines tell the real story about how pathetic a jobs recovery this has been. Bear in mind it has taken $trillions in stimulus to produce this.

June 2010 Report

Please consider the Bureau of Labor Statistics…
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Jobs Contract By 36,000; Unemployment Rate Steady At 9.7%; No Snow Effect

Jobs Contract By 36,000; Unemployment Rate Steady At 9.7%; No Snow Effect

Courtesy of Mish 

Today the BLS reported 36,000 job losses with the unemployment rate holding at 9.7%. Before diving into the numbers let’s analyze the snow job ahead of the report.

Speaking before Congress, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke harped about snow, warning policymakers will "to be careful about not overinterpreting" the upcoming data." In the wake of that warning, economists busily upped their projections for job losses in February, some by as much as 220,000 jobs.

I talked about that yesterday in Range of Snow Impact on Jobs: Negligible to 220,000; Have Your Snow Job Decoder Ring Handy?

Snow Job Decoding

Did 220,000 people not receive any pay for the period in question?

Color me skeptical.

In terms of the unemployment rate, the blizzards will not have an effect. In terms of the reported jobs number there will be an impact but the most likely impact is in the number of hours worked.

Regardless, expectations as to the importance of the blizzard range from negligible all the way to 220,000. Whatever the affect was, it will be over by next month although I have seen analysis that says the effects will last until May.

In today’s job report, the BLS chimed in about snow, confirming the above.

BLS Confirms Bernanke’s Snow Job

Effect of Severe Winter Storms on Employment Estimates

Major winter storms affected parts of the country during the February reference periods for the establishment and household surveys.

In the establishment survey, the reference period was the pay period including February 12th. In order for severe weather conditions to reduce the estimate of payroll employment, employees have to be off work for an entire pay period and not be paid for the time missed. About half of all workers in the payroll survey have a 2-week, semimonthly, or monthly pay period. Workers who received pay for any part of the reference pay period, even one hour, are counted in the February payroll employment figures.

While some persons may have been off payrolls during the survey reference period, some industries, such as those dealing with cleanup and repair activities, may have added workers.

In the household survey, the reference period was the calendar week of February 7-13. People who miss work for weather-related events are counted as employed whether or not they


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Jobs Contract Yet Again; Unemployment Rate Drops To 9.7%

Here’s Mish’s detailed breakdown of the confusing unemployment numbers. – Ilene

Jobs Contract Yet Again; Unemployment Rate Drops To 9.7%

a young man lying on a sofa holding a glass of wine

Courtesy of Mish  

In the continuing theater of BLS absurdities, the unemployment rate fell to 9.7% in spite of a 25th consecutive month of job losses. Some stopped counting at 22 months in November. However, I find November questionable.

This month professional services contributed 44,00 jobs to the plus side, but 52,000 of them were part-time jobs. Amazingly a table below shows the number of part-time workers decreased by 849,000 from last month. Go figure.

Moreover, the so-called 64,000 rise in November can be attributed to the seasonally adjusted hiring of 94,000 temporary workers. Here is a look at revisions ….

BLS Revisions

[click on charts to enlarge]

Household Revisions

The above table does not affect the unemployment rate. Revisions to the Household Survey do. Here are the household revisions.

Bingo. Just like that the population shrank as did the civilian labor force.

For some reason the BLS does this in pieces. The following chart shows the result.

There are now a whopping 2.5 million people without a job but want one, yet are not counted as unemployed.

So yes, the "official unemployment rate" can hold its own or even drop with this kind of nonsense.

Now for a closer look at the report ….

This morning, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the January 2010 Employment Report.

The unemployment rate fell from 10.0 to 9.7 percent in January, and nonfarm payroll employment was essentially unchanged (-20,000), the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment fell in construction and in transportation and warehousing, while temporary help services and retail trade added jobs..


Establishment Data

click on chart for sharper image

Highlights 

  • 20,000 jobs were lost in total vs. 150,000 jobs last month.
  • 75,000 construction jobs were lost vs. 32,000 last month.
  • 11,000 manufacturing jobs were added vs. 23,000 lost last month.
  • 48,000 service providing jobs were added vs. 69,000 lost last month.
  • 42,000 retail trade jobs were added vs. 18,000 lost last month.
  • 44,000 professional and business services jobs were added vs. 20,000 last month.
  • 16,000 education and health services jobs were added


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Zero Hedge

San Francisco Activates Emergency Operations Center To Prepare For Coronavirus 

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Increasing fears of coronavirus spreading across the U.S. have resulted in San Francisco Mayor London Breed to activate the city’s emergency operations center, reported the San Francisco Chronicle

“It’s, so we have a centralized location...



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Phil's Favorites

Coronavirus outbreak: WHO's decision to not declare a global public health emergency explained

 

Coronavirus outbreak: WHO's decision to not declare a global public health emergency explained

Masks are selling out in Singapore amid concerns about the Wuhan virus. Ng Sor Luan/EPA

Courtesy of Tom Solomon, University of Liverpool

The World Health Organization’s decision to not declare the novel coronavirus outbreak in China a public health emergency of international concern, or PHEIC, will surprise many. The number of reported cases and deaths is doubling every co...



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Insider Scoop

4 Energy Stocks Moving In Monday's After-Market Session

Courtesy of Benzinga

Gainers

SAExploration Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:SAEX) stock moved upwards by 6.3% to $2.77 during Monday's after-market session.

Abraxas Petroleum, Inc. (NASDAQ:AXAS) stock surged 6.2% to $0.30. According to the most recent rating by Johnson Rice, on November 19, the current rating is at Accumulate.

Pacific Drilling, Inc. (NYSE:PACD) stock increased by 4.7% to $1.80. The most recent rating by Fearnleys...



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Chart School

Top Patterns for Retail Investors

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Retail investors are last in line for market leading research, no matter, the retail investor can profit from these secret sauce patterns..

Well not so secret now, the main point is you do not have to climb Mount Everest to be called a mountain climber, there are many other hills to climb to make your mark. Just like stocks.

You do not have to battle with the high frequency traders to win in the markets, there are long and slow methods to do just as well.  

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The Technical Traders

The Wuhan Wipeout - Could It Happen?

Courtesy of Technical Traders

News is traveling fast about the Corona Virus that originated in Wuhan, China. Two new confirmed cases in the US, one in Europe and hundreds in China. As we learn more about thispotential pandemic outbreak, we are learning that China did very little to contain this problem from the start. Now, quarantining two cities and trying to control the potential
outbreak, may become a futile effort.

In most of Asia, the Chinese New Year is already in full swing.  Hong Kong, China, Singapore, Malaysia, India and a host of other countries are already starting to celebrate the 7 to 10 day long New Year.  Millions of people have already traveled hundreds of thousands of miles to visit family...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Bad News For Crude Oil Should Come From This Pattern, Says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

It’s a good idea for investors to be aware of key indicators and inter-market relationships.

Perhaps it’s watching the US Dollar as an indicator for precious metals or emerging markets. Or watching interest rates for the economy. Experience, history, and relationships matter. And it’s good to simply add these to our tool-kit.

Today, we look at another relationship that has signaled numerous stock market tops and bottoms over the years, and especially the past several months, Crude Oil.

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Biotech

Snakes could be the original source of the new coronavirus outbreak in China

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Snakes could be the original source of the new coronavirus outbreak in China

Chinese cobra (Naja atra) with hood spread. Briston/Wikimedia, CC BY-SA

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Members' Corner

The War on All Fact People

 

David Brin shares an excerpt from his new book on the relentless war against democracy and how we can fight back. You can also read the first, second and final chapters of Polemical Judo at David's blog Contrary Brin.

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Lee's Free Thinking

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

 

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

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The repo market problem isn’t the problem. It’s a sideshow, a diversion, and a joke. It’s a symptom of the problem.

Today, I got a note from Liquidity Trader subscriber David, a professional investor, and it got me to thinking. Here’s what David wrote:

Lee,

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Digital Currencies

Cryptos Have Surged Since Soleimani Death, Bitcoin Tops $8,000

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Bitcoin is up over 15% since the assassination of Iran General Soleimani...

Source: Bloomberg

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Testing its key 100-day moving-average for the first time since October...

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Funny but probably true:

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Promotions

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Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

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