Posts Tagged ‘Political Manipulation’

Employment Data ABCs

Employment Data ABCs

Courtesy of John Lounsbury at Piedmonthudson’s Weblog

a young man sitting on steps holding his head

Comments on employment data, especially over the past few days, indicate that many are confused about what the data means, how reliable/unreliable it is, and whether or not it is politically motivated. I have written past articles in which many details of how the DOL (U.S. Dept. of Labor) numbers should and should not be used. One of these (here) was a very detailed examination of various aspects of DOL processes. In this article, I want provide a summary update of the earlier work and add some new details.

Political Manipulation

I will address the third concern first. I can find no evidence that there is any political influence whatsoever in the collection and analysis of the employment data. The processes are well defined and stable over long periods of time. In fact, this very stability can produce errors in analysis models that need to be corrected when the historical form of the models starts to deviate from new economic reality.

The Birth/Death Adjustment

The most notable example of model drift is the birth/death adjustment, which has recently overstated the estimate of jobs created by new business formation before the new companies actually show up in the DOL’s Establishment Survey. These estimates are adjusted for 12 month data intervals almost a year after the fact, when new business formation can be more accurately accounted for from state tax and business records.

The ex post facto corrections made necessary by this “wandering model” were applied this month to data for April 2008 through March 2009. A total of 930,000 non-farm payroll job losses were added to those twelve months. Interim adjustment corrections were also made this month for April through December 2009. This will presumably reduce the corrections needed in February 2011 for the period April 2009 through March 2010.

The Establishment Survey

This is one of two monthly surveys conducted by the DOL. It covers approximately 140,000 businesses and government agencies (~410,000 work locations). The output of this survey consists of employment analysis of various segments of the economy, such as retail, manufacturing, construction, mining, transportation, education and health services, government, etc. The average weekly hours worked is also determined by this survey. It is the data used to produce the non-farms payroll report.

In spite of the fact that the non-farms
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Zero Hedge

US Pending Home Sales Soar In October

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

After surprising to the downside in September, October's pending home sales soared 7.5% MoM, for greater than the +1% expected (from a downwardly revised 2.4% MoM drop). However, despite the jump, sales are down on a YoY basis for the 5th straight month...

Source: Bloomberg

The pending home sale index is back near post-COVID highs...

Source: Bloomberg

Sales were up in...



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Phil's Favorites

Red Friday

 

Red Friday

Courtesy of Scott Galloway, No Mercy/No Malice@profgalloway

Smoking wasn’t popular among women until Edward Bernays, the father of public relations, rebranded it. In 1929 he capitalized on the feminist movement and repositioned cigarettes with a “torches of freedom” campaign. Bernays hired women to march down Fifth Avenue smoking as a public display of emancipation and rebellion. Within six years, women were purchasing 1 in 5 cigarettes, up from 1 in 20 in 1923.

The strategy is simple: If people associate something negative with your product (e.g., cancer), change the conversation — “You’ve come a long way, baby.”

Facebook’s rebranding...



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Biotech/COVID-19

The hunt for coronavirus variants: how the new one was found and what we know so far

 

The hunt for coronavirus variants: how the new one was found and what we know so far Scientists find variants by sequencing samples from people that have tested positive for the virus. Lightspring/Shutterstock

Courtesy of Prof. Wolfgang Preiser, Stellenbosch University; Cathrine Scheepers, University of the Witwatersrand; Jinal Bhiman, National Institute for Communicable Diseases; ...



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Politics

The first Thanksgiving is a key chapter in America's origin story - but what happened in Virginia four months later mattered much more

 

The first Thanksgiving is a key chapter in America’s origin story – but what happened in Virginia four months later mattered much more

In the 19th century, there was a campaign to link the Thanksgiving holiday to the Pilgrims. Bettman/Getty Images

Courtesy of Peter C. Mancall, USC Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and Sciences

This year marks the 400th anniversary of the first Thanksgiving in New England. Remembered and retold as an allegory for perseverance and cooper...



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Chart School

Gold and Silver still working higher

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Using Gann Angles from zero we can time the next run up, and it is near.

The last two days gold and silver are down on the back of central bankers talking the US Dollar higher in a attempt to off set inflation. A rising dollar is a form of tightening. Also the talk of a faster 'taper' has sent interest rates higher. But Luke Gromen knows this cant not last.

@LukeGromen Externally-financed twin deficit nations with insufficient external financing (ie the US, not Japan) cannot abide rising real rates for long.


RTT Comments: What this means a higher US Dollar makes it harder for those outside the US to buy the vast quantity of US Treasuries. 


U...

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Digital Currencies

Stablecoins: these cryptocurrencies threaten the financial system, but no one is getting to grips with them

 

Stablecoins: these cryptocurrencies threaten the financial system, but no one is getting to grips with them

Safe as houses? iQoncept

Courtesy of Jean-Philippe Serbera, Sheffield Hallam University

Cryptocurrencies have had an exceptional year, reaching a combined value of more than US$3 trillion (£2.2 trillion) for the first time in November. The market seems to have benefited from the public having tim...



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Promotions

Phil's Interview on Options Trading with TD Bank

TD Bank's host Bryan Rogers interviewed Phil on June 10 as part of TD's Options Education Month. If you missed the program, be sure to watch the video below. It should be required viewing for anyone trading or thinking about trading using options. 

Watch here:

TD's webinar with Phil (link) or right here at PSW

Screenshots of TD's slides illustrating Phil's examples:

 

 

&n...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Crude Oil Cleared For Blast Off On This Dual Breakout?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Is Crude Oil about to blast off and hit much higher prices? It might be worth being aware of what could be taking place this month in this important commodity!

Crude Oil has created lower highs over the past 13-years, since peaking back in 2008, along line (1).

It created a “Double Top at (2), then it proceeded to decline more than 60% in four months.

The countertrend rally in Crude Oil has it attempting to break above its 13-year falling resistance as well as its double top at (3).

A successful breakout at (3) would suggest Crude Oil is about to mo...



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ValueWalk

Managing Investments As A Charity Or Nonprofit

By Anna Peel. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Maintaining financial viability is a constant challenge for charities and nonprofit organizations.

Q4 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

The past year has underscored that challenge. The pandemic has not just affected investment returns – it’s also had serious implications for charitable activities and the ability to fundraise. For some organizations, it’s even raised doubts about whether they can continue to operate.

Finding ways to generate long-term, sustainable returns for ...



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Mapping The Market

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

 

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

Courtesy of Marcus Lu, Visual Capitalist

The Suez Canal: A Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

On March 23, 2021, a massive ship named Ever Given became lodged in the Suez Canal, completely blocking traffic in both directions. According to the Suez Canal Authority, the 1,312 foot long (400 m) container ship ran aground during a sandstorm that caused low visibility, impacting the ship’s navigation. The vessel is owned by Taiwanese shipping firm, Evergreen Marine.

With over 2...



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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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