Posts Tagged ‘Robert Prechter’

The Fed and “Plunge Protection Team”: Are They Manipulating Stocks?

The Fed and "Plunge Protection Team": Are They Manipulating Stocks? 
Rumors are, the U.S. government "is propping up the stock market." 

By Elliott Wave International

You will find many intriguing Q&As at EWI’s Message Board. We offer it as a free way for our Club EWI members and subscribers to interact with EWI and the Socionomics Institute’s experts. We strive to answer every Message Board reader, and publicly post the best Q&As. 

By far, the most frequent question we’ve been asked recently is:

"What is your take on the persistent internet chatter that the Federal Reserve is holding up the stock market via QE2, POMO, etc.? How can stocks ever decline again if the Fed is in control?"

We have several active Message Board posts that touch on "market manipulation." But here is an eye-opening chart that will help shed more light on this issue.

EWI President Robert Prechter published this chart in his October 2008 Elliott Wave Theorist. Review this chart carefully. For too many investors, the crash of 2007-2009 is becoming a hazy memory. And almost no one in the mainstream financial media talks about the utter panic in the markets in September-October 2008, the worst part of the crash.

If you think back to that time, you may remember that the Federal Reserve and U.S. government took many aggressive steps to help stop the collapse. Every time they would announce a new intervention, the market would cheer. Result? Prechter’s chart gives an unequivocal answer:

Buying on Bullish News in a Bear Market

[+] CLICK TO ENLARGE

As you can see, announcements of bailouts, unlimited credit, bans on short sales, etc., were powerless against the biggest stock market collapse in 76 years. The DJIA kept sliding. It didn’t stop until March 6, 2009 — after it had slipped below 6,500.

So: Is the Fed and the "Plunge Protection Team" engaged in market manipulation? You can browse EWI’s Message Board for some answers, but one thing is clear: When stocks were crashing two years ago, few dared to suggest that the Fed was in the saddle. Bob Prechter puts it best:

"When markets go up, the Fed seems to be in control; when they go down, it seems out of control. But the control aspect is an illusion."

Get the 33-page Market Myths Exposed eBook for
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The Fed and “Plunge Protection Team”: Are They Manipulating Stocks?

The Fed and "Plunge Protection Team": Are They Manipulating Stocks? 
Rumors are, the U.S. government "is propping up the stock market." 

By Elliott Wave International

You will find many intriguing Q&As at EWI’s Message Board. We offer it as a free way for our Club EWI members and subscribers to interact with EWI and the Socionomics Institute’s experts. We strive to answer every Message Board reader, and publicly post the best Q&As. 

By far, the most frequent question we’ve been asked recently is:

"What is your take on the persistent internet chatter that the Federal Reserve is holding up the stock market via QE2, POMO, etc.? How can stocks ever decline again if the Fed is in control?"

We have several active Message Board posts that touch on "market manipulation." But here is an eye-opening chart that will help shed more light on this issue.

EWI President Robert Prechter published this chart in his October 2008 Elliott Wave Theorist. Review this chart carefully. For too many investors, the crash of 2007-2009 is becoming a hazy memory. And almost no one in the mainstream financial media talks about the utter panic in the markets in September-October 2008, the worst part of the crash.

If you think back to that time, you may remember that the Federal Reserve and U.S. government took many aggressive steps to help stop the collapse. Every time they would announce a new intervention, the market would cheer. Result? Prechter’s chart gives an unequivocal answer:

Buying on Bullish News in a Bear Market

[+] CLICK TO ENLARGE

As you can see, announcements of bailouts, unlimited credit, bans on short sales, etc., were powerless against the biggest stock market collapse in 76 years. The DJIA kept sliding. It didn’t stop until March 6, 2009 — after it had slipped below 6,500.

So: Is the Fed and the "Plunge Protection Team" engaged in market manipulation? You can browse EWI’s Message Board for some answers, but one thing is clear: When stocks were crashing two years ago, few dared to suggest that the Fed was in the saddle. Bob Prechter puts it best:

"When markets go up, the Fed seems to be in control; when they go down, it seems out of control. But the control aspect is an illusion."

Get the 33-page Market Myths Exposed eBook
continue reading


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Prechter On Market Rally

Video (Part 1): Prechter On Market Rally

(Note: This interview was originally recorded on September 20, 2010)

In the two videos below, Robert Prechter talks to Yahoo! Finance Tech Ticker host Aaron Task and Henry Blodget about extreme readings in various indicators that support his bear-market forecast.

 

Video (Part 2): Prechter: Ominous Pattern in the DJIA

Get Up to Speed on Robert Prechter’s Latest Perspective — Download this Special FREE Report Now.


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Deflation: The Trend That’s Become Too Obvious To Ignore

Deflation: The Trend That’s Become Too Obvious To Ignore

By Elliott Wave International

Pencil popping balloon

As the biggest credit bubble in history continues to shrink, consumer prices have stayed flat over the past several months, meaning there is no sign of inflation to come, despite growing commitments from the U.S. government.

So what’s keeping inflation at bay, given all the stimulus money promised? The answer: Deflation -- an overwhelming urge for consumers to liquidate their assets for cash. And this new economic phase is finally becoming too obvious to ignore, as explained in recent commentary from the world’s largest technical analysis firm.

"The economy is moving into a critical new phase, an outright deflation in which ‘prices fall because people expect falling prices.’ Obviously, this implies an element of recognition, as efforts to protect against indebtedness and falling prices contribute to further declines. We can tell deflation is entering a new stage because of the language and ideas that financial observers now use to describe it."
-- The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast (September 2010)

Here are a few recent comments about the new economic reality:

  • "[New Jersey Governor] Christie spelled out the details of his proposal Tuesday. They include: repealing an increase in benefits approved years ago; eliminating automatic cost-of-living adjustments; raising the retirement age to 65 from 60 in many cases; reducing pension payouts for many future retirees; and requiring some employees to contribute more to their pensions." -- Associated Press (Sept. 15)
  • "U.S. Home Prices Face Three-Year Drop as Inventory Surge Looms" -- Bloomberg (Sept. 15)
  • "Atlanta Awash in Empty Offices Struggles to Recover From Building Binge" -- Bloomberg (Sept. 14)
  • "The world economy faces a long, hard slog toward recovery and could slide into deflation and financial instability if leaders fail to deliver on promises of reform." -- Reuters (Sept. 10)
  • "Deflation seems to have the upper hand lately in the debate among investors about inflation versus deflation." -- Marketwatch (Sept. 8 )
  • "With the release of the August sales figures, one thing is clear for car shoppers — it’s a buyer’s market." -- Edmunds (Sept. 2)
  • "20 Funds to Guard Against Deflation" -- Smartmoney (Aug. 29)
  • "Dividend-Yield Signal Screams Deflation" -- Forbes (Aug. 25)

The word "deflation" also started appearing more in the financial media around 2002, but Robert Prechter, president of technical analysis firm Elliott Wave International and author of the 2002 New York Times best-seller Conquer the Crash, added in the updated 2009 edition of his book…
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POST-MASSIVE BULL MARKETS

POST-MASSIVE BULL MARKETS

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist 

Taking the other side of the extremely bearish Robert Prechter view of the markets is today’s chart of the day which shows the performance of several post-massive bear market rallies:

By Chart of the day

Today’s chart illustrates rallies that followed massive bear markets. For today’s chart, a ‘massive’ bear market is defined as a decline of greater than 50%. Since the Dow’s inception in 1896, there have been only three bear markets whereby the Dow declined more than 50% (early 1930s, late 1930s until early 1940s, and during the very recent financial crisis). Today’s chart also adds the rally that followed the dot-com bust during which the Nasdaq declined 78%. The current Dow rally has followed a path that is fairly similar to that of post-massive bear market rallies. The initial surge of the current rally lasted nearly 300 trading days and has been trading flat/choppy ever since. If the current rally were to continue to follow the post-massive bear market rally pattern, the current choppy phase would continue for another 200+ trading days.

Notes:
- The market is at a critical juncture. Where we go from here may surprise you. Find out right now with the exclusive charts of Chart of the Day Plus.


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Deflation: First Step, Understand It

Deflation: First Step, Understand It 

There is still time to prepare if deflation is indeed in our future.

Deflated globe

By Elliott Wave International

"Fed’s Bullard Raises Specter of Japanese-Style Deflation," reads a July 29 Washington Post headline.

When the St. Louis Fed Chief speaks, people listen. Now that deflation — something that EWI’s president Robert Prechter has been warning about for several years — is making mainstream news headlines, is it too late to prepare?

It’s not too late.

There are still steps you can take if deflation is indeed in our future. The first step is to understand what it is. So we’ve put together a special, free, 60-page Club EWI resource, "The Guide to Understanding Deflation: Robert Prechter’s most important warnings about deflation." Enjoy this quick excerpt. 

When Does Deflation Occur? 
By Robert Prechter

To understand inflation and deflation, we have to understand the terms money and credit.

Money is a socially accepted medium of exchange, value storage and final payment; credit may be summarized as a right to access money. In today’s economy, most credit is lent, so people often use the terms "credit" and "debt" interchangeably, as money lent by one entity is simultaneously money borrowed by another.

Deflation requires a precondition: a major societal buildup in the extension of credit (and its flip side, the assumption of debt). Austrian economists Ludwig von Mises and Friedrich Hayek warned of the consequences of credit expansion, as have a handful of other economists, who today are mostly ignored. Bank credit and Elliott wave expert Hamilton Bolton, in a 1957 letter, summarized his observations this way:

In reading a history of major depressions in the U.S. from 1830 on, I was impressed with the following: 
(a) All were set off by a deflation of excess credit. This was the one factor in common. 
(b) Sometimes the excess-of-credit situation seemed to last years before the bubble broke. 
(c) Some outside event, such as a major failure, brought the thing to a head, but the signs were visible many months, and in some cases years, in advance. 
(d) None was ever quite like the last, so that the public was always fooled thereby. 
(e) Some panics occurred under great government surpluses of revenue (1837, for instance) and some under great government deficits.

Near the end of a major expansion, few creditors expect default, which…
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ZeroHedge: Richard Russell Slams Robert Prechter, Praises Gold, Tells Readers Get Out Of Stocks.

Excellent analysis by Jesse covering a number of items, including Robert Prechter’s successes and failures, the contraction in credit, gold, the Federal Reserve, the financial elite, and the sad truth that America’s dominant industry is financial fraud. - Ilene 

ZeroHedge: Richard Russell Slams Robert Prechter, Praises Gold, Tells Readers Get Out Of Stocks.

Courtesy of JESSE’S CAFÉ AMÉRICAIN

First, Richard Russell does not ‘slam’ Prechter because he is a gentleman and doesn’t really ‘slam’ anyone. Fights between pundits can be fun in a voyeuristic way, but they are largely unproductive and generally used as a means of gaining attention, and providing distraction from what really matters, in the manner of panem et circenses. And sometimes people use provocative headlines to garner interest as well, in the manner of the New York Post and Daily News.

What Russell is saying is that Prechter is wrong in his interpretation of how deflation will play out, and what the endgame will look like. And he is saying almost the same thing that others, including Eric Janszen and myself, have been saying for quite some time, but in a slightly different ways.

Second, what Bob Prechter does not realize is that a contraction in credit does not imply a one for one decrease in ‘money’ just as an increase in credit these days does not result in a one for one increase in money. That is because credit is not money, it is the potential for money. Why more people don’t get that is beyond me. They trumpet the diminishing returns of money production for each marginal dollar of credit, but they don’t admit that this credit is vaporous, and as it dissipates it does not reduce money supply one for one either.

Third, and probably most importantly of all, even as the credit contracts, and the money supply contracts at some lesser rate as show in the money supply figures, the ‘basis of value’ of the money is also contracting. Since the US dollar is not based on gold, we have to look at what is providing the basis of its value. And what are those things, and what is happening to THEIR value.

And finally, there is a huge overhang of eurodollars out there, that are largely parked in Treasuries mostly of a moderate duration of three to ten years. By buying the Three and Ten year notes the Fed is ‘monetizing them’ and taking…
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The Economic Crisis No One Saw Coming: A Convenient Untruth

The Economic Crisis No One Saw Coming: A Convenient Untruth

By Elliott Wave International

The single most convenient untruth about the 2008 (and counting) financial crisis is that it was unforeseen. For two years policymakers have insisted "There was no way to know ahead of time" that the liquidity boom would come to a screeching halt. Back in November 2008, in fact, the usually tight-lipped Queen of England herself publicly described the turmoil of international markets as "awful" and openly asked a panel of experts from the London School of Economics "Why did nobody notice?"

Her Majesty is right: Most financial authorities did NOT notice the crisis before it was too late. Comedy Central’s "The Daily Show with Jon Stewart" of all places provided the most poignant evidence: A March 2009 video montage shows executives and economists from the world’s leading financial firms repeatedly forecasting continued upside strength in stocks, plus renewed bull market growth in financials — right as debt markets came unhinged and the US stock market headed into a 50%-plus selloff.

Dubbed the "8-Minute Rap" (after the "18-Minute Gap" of Nixon’s Watergate tapes), the Daily Show video feature sent an equally powerful message, as the clip below makes plain.

Yet even as the mainstream authorities failed to detect the economic earthquake moving below their own feet, somebody did "notice" well in advance. That person was EWI’s president Bob Prechter.

The clip below is from a 2007 Bloomberg interview. Clear as PLAY, the foreseeable nature of the crisis emerges from Bob’s October 19, 2007 interview.

As the historic trend change began to unfold, Bob issued this timely insight:

"We’ve seen the first crack in the credit structure with a huge drop in commercial paper… These are the harbingers of a change toward the downside for the stock market, commodities including oil, and the debt market itself."

Don’t believe the convenient untruths. Get objective market analysis today. Download this free report that contains valuable market forecasts directly from the desk of Bob Prechter. This article, The Economic Crisis No One Saw Coming: A Convenient Untruth, was syndicated by Elliott Wave International. EWI is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. 

EWI also just sent me an offer for a free eBook on trading lessons (click on banner below). – Ilene 


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Understanding Robert Prechter’s ‘Slope of Hope’

Understanding Robert Prechter’s ‘Slope of Hope’ 

By Elliott Wave International

Almost everybody who follows financial markets has heard about climbing the "wall of worry": the time when prices head up bullishly, but no one quite believes in the rally, so there’s more worry about a fall than a rise.

What’s the opposite condition in the market?

Bob Prechter named it the "slope of hope," meaning that as prices head down, no one wants to believe the market really has turned bearish, so there’s more hope for a rise than fear of a fall.

The market has been rising recently, following a bearish decline from late April through the end of June, which makes now the perfect time to learn more about the slope of hope.

* * * * *

Excerpted from The Elliott Wave Theorist by Robert Prechter, published June 18, 2010

According to polls, economists are virtually unanimous in the view that the “Great Recession” is over and a recovery is in progress, even though “full employment will take time,” etc. Yet mortgage writing has just plunged to a new low for the cycle (see Figure 1), and housing starts and permits just had their biggest percentage monthly drop since January 1991, which was at the end of a Primary-degree recession. But the latest “recession” supposedly ended a year ago. How can housing activity make new lows this far into a recovery? The answer is in the subtitle to Conquer the Crash, which includes the word depression. The subtleties in economic performance continue to suggest that it “was” not a “recession.” It is a depression, moving forward, in punctuated fashion, slowly but inexorably.

Number of New Mortgages Plunges Again

Despite this outlook, keep in mind what The Elliott Wave Theorist said last month: “Even though the market is about to begin its greatest decline ever, the era of hope is not quite finished.” For as long as another year and a half, there will be rallies, fixes, hopes and reasons to believe in recovery. Our name for this phase of a bear market is the Slope of Hope. This portion of the decline lasts until the center of the wave, where investors stop estimating upside potential and start being concerned with downside potential. Economists in the aggregate will probably not recognize that a depression is in force until 2012 or perhaps beyond. That’s the year the 7.5-year cycle is due to roll over (see April 2010 issue). Stock…
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Understanding Robert Prechter’s ‘Slope of Hope’

Whatever you might say of Robert Prechter, one thing he isn’t is ambiguous. – Ilene 

Understanding Robert Prechter’s ‘Slope of Hope’ 

Courtesy of Elliott Wave International

Almost everybody who follows financial markets has heard about climbing the "wall of worry": the time when prices head up bullishly, but no one quite believes in the rally, so there’s more worry about a fall than a rise.

What’s the opposite condition in the market?

Bob Prechter named it the "slope of hope," meaning that as prices head down, no one wants to believe the market really has turned bearish, so there’s more hope for a rise than fear of a fall.

The market has been rising recently, following a bearish decline from late April through the end of June, which makes now the perfect time to learn more about the slope of hope.

* * * * *

Excerpted from The Elliott Wave Theorist by Robert Prechter, published June 18, 2010

According to polls, economists are virtually unanimous in the view that the “Great Recession” is over and a recovery is in progress, even though “full employment will take time,” etc. Yet mortgage writing has just plunged to a new low for the cycle (see Figure 1), and housing starts and permits just had their biggest percentage monthly drop since January 1991, which was at the end of a Primary-degree recession. But the latest “recession” supposedly ended a year ago. How can housing activity make new lows this far into a recovery? The answer is in the subtitle to Conquer the Crash, which includes the word depression. The subtleties in economic performance continue to suggest that it “was” not a “recession.” It is a depression, moving forward, in punctuated fashion, slowly but inexorably.

Number of New Mortgages Plunges Again

Despite this outlook, keep in mind what The Elliott Wave Theorist said last month: “Even though the market is about to begin its greatest decline ever, the era of hope is not quite finished.” For as long as another year and a half, there will be rallies, fixes, hopes and reasons to believe in recovery. Our name for this phase of a bear market is the Slope of Hope. This portion of the decline lasts until the center of the wave, where investors stop estimating upside potential and start being concerned with downside potential. Economists in the aggregate will probably not recognize that a depression is in force until 2012 or…
continue reading


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Zero Hedge

'Hedge Fund Hotel' Arconic Crashes 25% As Sale Plan Abandoned

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Widely-held by hedge funds (e.g. Elliott Mgmnt with 52mm shares), aerospace company Arconic has decided to no longer pursue a potential sale of the company. The shares are down over 25% pre-market...

What changed in 4 days?

Jan.18: Arconic Hopes to Finalize Sale to Apollo This Weekend: NY Post

    ...


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Kimble Charting Solutions

S&P and Crude both testing key breakout levels!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

The correlation between Crude Oil and the S&P 500 has been rather high over the last 100-days, as each looks to have peaked at the same time around the 1st of October at (1).

After peaking together in October, Crude fell over 40% and the S&P nearly declined 20%, with both bottoming on Christmas Eve at each (2).

Both have experienced counter-trend rallies since the lows, as Crude is up 23% and the S&P 13%.

These rallies have both testing dual resist...



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Insider Scoop

10 Stocks To Watch For January 22, 2019

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Some of the stocks that may grab investor focus today are:

  • Wall Street expects Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) to report quarterly earnings at $1.95 per share on revenue of $20.17 billion before the opening bell. Johnson & Johnson shares gained 0.1 percent to $130.80 in after-hours trading.
  • Analysts expect IBM Common Stock (NYSE: ...


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Phil's Favorites

Martin Luther King Jr., union man

 

Martin Luther King Jr., union man

Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. on the picket line at the Scripto plant in Atlanta, Ga., December, 1964. AP

Courtesy of Peter Cole, Western Illinois University

If Martin Luther King Jr. still lived, he’d probably tell people to join unions.

King understood racial equality was inextricably linked to economics. He asked, “What good does it do to be able to eat at a lunch counter if you can’t buy a hamburger?”

Those disadvantages have persisted. Tod...



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Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Jan 20, 2019

Courtesy of Blain.

After entering the week quite overbought, indexes took a small retreat Monday before hurling back upwards.  This is typical of the “V” shaped moves up after any significant selloff, we’ve seen most of the past decade and watching them unfurl is quite amazing actually.  Thought maybe this time would be “different” but not so much.  So two week’s ago we asked “Has the Fed solved all the market’s problem in 1 speech?” – and thus far the market has answered resoundingly yes.  The word of the year thus far in 2019 is “patience” as that simple insert into a speech change the whole complexion of everything.

China has also been busy stimulating; on Tuesday:

An announcement from the People’s Bank of China that ...



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ValueWalk

Everyone Else Is Selling Stocks, So Is It Time To Buy?

By Michelle Jones. Originally published at ValueWalk.

After a difficult few trading days in the beginning of the year, U.S. stocks are bouncing back with meaningful gains on Monday following Friday’s strong rally. The S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq 100 were all up by more than half a percent by midday. It looks like investors could be taking advantage of the end-of-the-year declines, but is this a wise time to be buying?

Trying to time the bottom of the market will almost always be a fool’s errand, but one firm suggests equities could have much farther to fall before they hit bottom in 2019.

...



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Digital Currencies

Transparency and privacy: Empowering people through blockchain

 

Transparency and privacy: Empowering people through blockchain

Blockchain technologies can empower people by allowing them more control over their user data. Shutterstock

Courtesy of Ajay Kumar Shrestha, University of Saskatchewan

Blockchain has already proven its huge influence on the financial world with its first application in the form of cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin. It might not be long before its impact is felt everywhere.

Blockchain is a secure chain of digital records that exist on multiple computers simultaneously so no record can be erased or falsified. The...



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Members' Corner

Why Trump Can't Learn

 

Bill Eddy (lawyer, therapist, author) predicted Trump's chaotic presidency based on his high-conflict personality, which was evident years ago. This post, written in 2017, references a prescient article Bill wrote before Trump even became president, 5 Reasons Trump Can’t Learn. ~ Ilene 

Why Trump Can’t Learn

Donald Trump by Gage Skidmore (...



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Biotech

Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Bacteriophage viruses infecting bacterial cells , Bacterial viruses. from www.shutterstock.com

Courtesy of John Bergeron, McGill University

Today, the scientific community is aghast at the prospect of gene editing to create “designer” humans. Gene editing may be of greater consequence than climate change, or even the consequences of unleashing the energy of the atom.

...

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Mapping The Market

Trump: "I Won't Be Here" When It Blows Up

By Jean-Luc

Maybe we should simply try him for treason right now:

Trump on Coming Debt Crisis: ‘I Won’t Be Here’ When It Blows Up

The president thinks the balancing of the nation’s books is going to, ultimately, be a future president’s problem.

By Asawin Suebsaeng and Lachlan Markay, Daily Beast

The friction came to a head in early 2017 when senior officials offered Trump charts and graphics laying out the numbers and showing a “hockey stick” spike in the nationa...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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