Posts Tagged ‘Robert Prechter’

The Bear Market and Depression: How Close to the Bottom?

When discussing Robert Prechter, reactions can be strong, ranging from the extreme of hero worship to the other extreme of complete skepticism.  So while Robert Prechter has a cult-like following of Elliott-Wavers, others (such as Damien of Wall St. Cheat Sheet) seriously ask whether he is certifiably insane.  My own thoughts are mixed, with conclusions pending. – Ilene 

The Bear Market and Depression: How Close to the Bottom?

By Elliott Wave International

Robert Prechter thinks about markets and wave patterns, and goes back to the 1700s, the 1800s, and — most tellingly for our time now — the early 1900s when the Great Depression weighed down the United States in the late 1920s and early 1930s. With this large wash of history in mind, he is able to explain why he thinks we have a long way to go to get to the bottom of this bear market.

Here is an excerpt from the EWI Independent Investor eBook, in which Robert answers the question: How close to the bottom are we?

* * * * * 

Originally written by Robert Prechter for The Elliott Wave Theorist, January 2009

Some people contact us and say, “People are more bearish than I have ever seen them. This has to be a bottom.” The first half of this statement may well be true for many market observers. If one has been in the market for less than 14 years, one has never seen people this bearish. But market sentiment over those years was a historical anomaly. The annual dividend payout from stocks reached its lowest level ever: less than half the previous record. The P/E ratio reached its highest level ever: double the previous record. The price-to-book value ratio went into the stratosphere, as did the ratio between corporate bond yields and the same corporations’ stock dividend yields.

During nine and a half of those years, from October 1998 to March 2008, optimism dominated so consistently that bulls outnumbered bears among advisors (per the Investors Intelligence polls) for 481 out of 490 weeks. Investors got so used to this period of euphoria and financial excess that they have taken it as the norm.

With that period as a benchmark, the moderate slippage in optimism since 2007 does appear as a severe change. But observe a subtle irony: When commentators agree that investors are too bearish, they say so to
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Is Elliott Wave Theory High Priest Robert Prechter Certifiably Insane?

Is Elliott Wave Theory High Priest Robert Prechter Certifiably Insane?

Courtesy of Damien Hoffman at Wall Street Cheat Sheet 

Fear is easy to sell. As humans, our core instinct is to avoid pain and survive.

Recently, famed Elliott Wave pundit Robert Prechter has been beating the drum for Dow 1,000. Given all the fear of Big Government and crony corporations, Prechter has some serious passions to exploit. Or, is he simply offering objective financial projections? Or worse, is he certifiably insane?

On Yahoo TechTicker we briefly addressed Prechter’s apocalyptic call. However, I must add I think the US and other sovereign governments will use any means necessary to prop up markets long before asset deflation unleashes chaos not seen in generations.

There is always the statistical probability our economy will degenerate into the Dark Ages. But there exists plenty of economic activity to at least ward off a massive unwinding of all global debt. Moreover, the US has seen these debt levels before and we emerged without sharing crumbs for lunch.

Prechter’s main comparable is from almost 300 years ago:

For a rough parallel, he said, go all the way back to England and the collapse of the South Sea Bubble in 1720, a crash that deterred people “from buying stocks for 100 years,” he said. This time, he said, “If I’m right, it will be such a shock that people will be telling their grandkids many years from now, ‘Don’t touch stocks.’ ”

Call me crazy, but modern civilization hardly resembles anything from 300 years…
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Prechter on CNBC: Prechter’s Perspective on Stocks

Prechter on CNBC: Prechter’s Perspective on Stocks

Robert Prechter joins host Maria Bartiromo on CNBC’s Closing Bell to talk about his bearish forecast for stocks and offer investment advice.

FREE Report: 20 Questions with Robert Prechter
Noted financial commentator Jim Puplava asks Robert Prechter tough questions about fiat currency, gold, the Fed, the Great Depression, financial bubbles, government intervention and how to protect your money — and even profit — in today’s environment. Read Prechter’s candid answers for FREE now. Access the 20-page report here.


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Put on Your Party Hats – It’s Time to Party for Another Decade!

Mish is a picture of optimism compared to Robert Prechter (of Elliott Wave Fame).  Robert Prechter is wrong, instead of dropping to 1,000, the Dow may only drop to 5,000, and even that may be too pessimistic in Mish’s eyes. - Ilene 

Put on Your Party Hats – It’s Time to Party for Another Decade!

Courtesy of Mish 

I don’t know about you but I am psyched. The prospects of an ongoing party for another decade are extremely good as the following chart shows.

Dow Jones Industrial Average – 1999 to Present 

click on chart for sharper image

Market participants put on their party hats and started cheering in 1999 when the DOW crossed 10,000 for the first time. They have been cheering pretty much nonstop ever since.

Admittedly there was a bit of a party lag between early 2005 and late 2008 but the party hats have been working overtime since mid-2008 as shown below.

Dow Jones Industrial Average – October 2010 to Present 

click on chart for sharper image

Lost Decades Comparison

Please bear in mind that some pessimists liken the above behavior to a period of stunning underperformance of the Japanese Nikkei Index over the last two decades.

Japan’s Two Lost Decades

click on chart for sharper image

The Perpetually Optimistic Mish

Being the ever-optimist that I am, I want to quickly point out that while Japan essentially went straight down over two decades, the US by comparison has put in stunning outperformance by going nowhere.

Top hat and champagne glass held aloft for New Year's

Indeed, the Dow Jones Index is remarkably sitting exactly where it was in April of 1999, over 10 years ago while the Nikkei over the same timeframe fell by about 50%.

Optimists such as myself have only one thing to say: Hallelujah!

Meanwhile doom and gloomers like Robert Prechter think the Dow will fall to 1,000.

To that I say "Poppycock" (pretty harsh language indeed for those who know me well).

By my optimistic comparison, I think the Dow’s downside is 5,000. That is a stunning 400% more optimistic appraisal of the current state of affairs than Prechter.

Furthermore, I freely admit that the DOW, instead of dropping, just may meander around 10,000 for another decade.

Wow. Except for public pension plan assumptions, imagine the parties we can have over that!

Mike "Mish" Shedlock


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Put on Your Party Hats – It’s Time to Party for Another Decade!

Mish is a picture of optimism compared to Robert Prechter (of Elliott Wave Fame).  Robert Prechter is wrong, instead of dropping to 1,000, the Dow may only drop to 5,000, and even that may be too pessimistic in Mish’s eyes. – Ilene 

Put on Your Party Hats – It’s Time to Party for Another Decade!

Courtesy of Mish 

I don’t know about you but I am psyched. The prospects of an ongoing party for another decade are extremely good as the following chart shows.

Dow Jones Industrial Average – 1999 to Present 

click on chart for sharper image

Market participants put on their party hats and started cheering in 1999 when the DOW crossed 10,000 for the first time. They have been cheering pretty much nonstop ever since.

Admittedly there was a bit of a party lag between early 2005 and late 2008 but the party hats have been working overtime since mid-2008 as shown below.

Dow Jones Industrial Average – October 2010 to Present 

click on chart for sharper image

Lost Decades Comparison

Please bear in mind that some pessimists liken the above behavior to a period of stunning underperformance of the Japanese Nikkei Index over the last two decades.

Japan’s Two Lost Decades

click on chart for sharper image

The Perpetually Optimistic Mish

Being the ever-optimist that I am, I want to quickly point out that while Japan essentially went straight down over two decades, the US by comparison has put in stunning outperformance by going nowhere.

Top hat and champagne glass held aloft for New Year's

Indeed, the Dow Jones Index is remarkably sitting exactly where it was in April of 1999, over 10 years ago while the Nikkei over the same timeframe fell by about 50%.

Optimists such as myself have only one thing to say: Hallelujah!

Meanwhile doom and gloomers like Robert Prechter think the Dow will fall to 1,000.

To that I say "Poppycock" (pretty harsh language indeed for those who know me well).

By my optimistic comparison, I think the Dow’s downside is 5,000. That is a stunning 400% more optimistic appraisal of the current state of affairs than Prechter.

Furthermore, I freely admit that the DOW, instead of dropping, just may meander around 10,000 for another decade.

Wow. Except for public pension plan assumptions, imagine the parties we can have over that!

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

 


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20 Questions with Robert Prechter: Signs Point to Deflation

20 Questions with Robert Prechter: Signs Point to Deflation 

Courtesy of Elliott Wave International

NEW YORK - NOVEMBER 26:  The Kermit the Frog balloon is prepared for deflation after completing its route during the 83rd annual Macy's Thanksgiving Day parade on the Streets of Manhattan on November 26, 2009 in New York City. Thanksgiving Day is celebrated in Canada and the United States and traditionally it is a time to give thanks for the harvest.  (Photo by Michael Loccisano/Getty Images)

The following article is an excerpt from Elliott Wave International’s free report, 20 Questions With Deflationist Robert Prechter. It has been adapted from Prechter’s June 19 appearance on Jim Puplava’s Financial Sense Newshour. To read the entire conversation, access the 20-page report here.

Jim Puplava: Bob, I want to pick up from last September. Since then we’ve had several quarters of positive economic growth. Asset classes rose substantially, CPI turned positive, gold has hit a new record, oil is close to $80 a barrel. I guess a lot of our listeners would like to know, have these events altered your views on deflation?

Robert Prechter: No, because we forecasted these events, and we forecasted them at the bottom in March and April of 2009. On February 23 in the Elliott Wave Theorist, I said that we were almost at the bottom; that ideally the S&P should get down in the 600s before turning up; and that the Dow was going to rally from that low up to about 10,000. We put that target out a few days after the low. The main thing we said at the time was that it was going to be only a partial retracement, in other words a bear market rally. By the end of it, we said people would be bullish on the economy, there would be positive economic numbers, investors would think we have made the turn, the Fed would take credit for having saved the financial system, and there would be optimism across the board. All of this has happened. And going into April 2010, few people in the fundamentalist or technical camp were looking for a downturn.

The final thing I said was that Obama’s popularity would rise into that peak, and on that one I was wrong. His ratings couldn’t even bounce during that period, which I found very surprising. But both Obama and George Bush’s popularity trends followed the real value of stocks, not the inflated dollar price of the stock market, which I find interesting.

As far as inflation and deflation go, we had deflation during the down cycle in 2008. Commodities fell hard, the stock market fell hard and real estate fell hard. But the recovery that we were looking for in the first quarter of 2009 was expected


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Big Bear Markets: More Than Falling Stock Prices

Big Bear Markets: More Than Falling Stock Prices 
Many infamous authoritarian regimes emerged during or after big bear markets

Courtesy of Elliott Wave International

Crowd Carrying Protest Signs

Fear and uncertainty that drive a severe bear market are the same emotions which can set the stage for authoritarianism, in most any nation. 

"Bear markets of sufficient size appear to bring about a desire to slaughter groups of successful people. In 1793-1794, radical Frenchmen guillotined countless members of high society. In the 1930s, Stalin slaughtered Ukrainians. In the 1940s, Nazis slaughtered Jews. In the 1970s, Communists in Cambodia and China slaughtered the affluent. In 1998, after their country’s financial collapse, Indonesians went on a rampage and slaughtered Chinese merchants." - Bob Prechter, Wave Principle of Human Social Behavior, p. 270

Why do authoritarian tendencies emerge only during bear markets in stocks?

"As society becomes more fearful, many individuals yearn for the safety and order promised by strong, controlling leaders." - The Socionomist, May 2010

Bob Prechter’s new science of socionomics explains that stock market fluctuations mirror trends in people’s collective mood. In simple terms, when the market is buoyant, it indicates positive social mood; the opposite when a bear market takes over.

The fascinating part is that because the stock market and social mood trend closely together, a forecaster can apply Elliott wave analysis to both — and predict both.

Generally, widespread brutalities and wars do not follow the first phase of a bear market. Extreme violence, when it does occur, often follows the worst part of the market’s downturn — like the end of the Great Depression, a negative social mood period that ultimately ushered in World War II.

But even during the first phase, a negative social mood grows. So, if a forecaster determines correctly where in the wave structure social mood resides, he can make educated forecasts about what will follow in society — given what has happened before under similar social mood trends.

Authoritarianism is a subject of heated discussions these days, which makes it a timely topic for a socionomic study. The latest, two-part issue of the monthly Socionomist gives you just that: A look at historic trends and specific forecasts for the years ahead.

Learn How to Anticipate and Prepare for Political Conflict and War, Bull Markets and Bear Markets. The 118-page Independent Investor eBook covers a vast array of investment topics and exposes myths that mainstream investors accept as fact. Once you learn
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Deflation: How To Survive It

Deflation: How To Survive It 
Important warnings about deflation from Robert Prechter.

Pencil popping balloon

Courtesy of Elliott Wave International

Telegraph.go.uk, May 26: "US money supply plunges at 1930s pace… The M3 money supply in the U.S. is contracting at an accelerating rate that now matches the average decline seen from 1929 to 1933, despite near zero interest rates and the biggest fiscal blitz in history."

Deflation is suddenly in the news again. It’s a good moment to catch up on a few definitions, as well as strategies on how to beat this rare economic condition.

And who better to ask than EWI’s president Robert Prechter? He predicted the first wave of deflation in the 2007-2009 "credit crunch" and has written on this topic extensively.

We’ve put together a great free resource for our Club EWI members: a 63-page "Deflation Survival Guide eBook," Prechter’s most important deflation essays. Enjoy this excerpt — to read the full eBook, free, look below.


What Makes Deflation Likely Today? 
Bob Prechter, Deflation Survival Guide, free Club EWI eBook

Following the Great Depression, the Fed and the U.S. government embarked on a program…both of increasing the creation of new money and credit and of fostering the confidence of lenders and borrowers so as to facilitate the expansion of credit. These policies both accommodated and encouraged the expansionary trend of the ’Teens and 1920s, which ended in bust, and the far larger expansionary trend that began in 1932 and which has accelerated over the past half-century. Other governments and central banks have followed similar policies. The International Monetary Fund, the World Bank and similar institutions, funded mostly by the U.S. taxpayer, have extended immense credit around the globe.

Their policies have supported nearly continuous worldwide inflation, particularly over the past thirty years. As a result, the global financial system is gorged with non-self-liquidating credit. Conventional economists excuse and praise this system under the erroneous belief that expanding money and credit promotes economic growth, which is terribly false. It appears to do so for a while, but in the long run, the swollen mass of debt collapses of its own weight, which is deflation, and destroys the economy. A devastated economy, moreover, encourages radical politics, which is even worse.

The value of credit that has been extended worldwide is unprecedented. Worse, most of this debt is the non-self-liquidating type. Much of it comprises…
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Prechter: Bank Reform Will Shrink Credit and Kill the Economy

Yahoo Finance Video 3: Prechter: Bank Reform Will Shrink Credit and Kill the Economy

The Senate version of financial regulation is bad for business on Wall Street and, according to the Wall Street Journal, could cut the profits of major financial institutions by roughly 20%. Find out why Robert Prechter thinks it’s also bad for the economy in the third excerpt from Robert Prechter’s May 20 interview with Yahoo! Finance Tech Ticker host Aaron Task.  

Get Robert Prechter’s FREE 60-Page Deflation Survival Guide
With you in mind, financial analyst Robert Prechter scoured thousands of pages of his warnings and teachings about deflation. He then handpicked his most important deflation writings and compiled them into a special, unedited, 60-page Deflation Survival Guide. If you havent yet given Prechter’s deflation argument your attention, download Your 60-page Deflation Survival Guide Now FREE.


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Prechter on Yahoo! Finance: “Even $1 Trillion Can’t Save the Euro, But Gold is No Safe Haven”

Here’s Robert Prechter’s (of Elliott Wave International) latest video.

Prechter on Yahoo! Finance: "Even $1 Trillion Can’t Save the Euro, But Gold is No Safe Haven"

The euro’s recent loss has been the dollar’s gain, which means that it’s not the best time to buy the U.S. dollar. Meanwhile, the most popular alternative to currencies, gold, isn’t such a good buy either. Watch the second excerpt from Robert Prechter’s May 20 interview with Yahoo! Finance Tech Ticker host Aaron Task to hear what Prechter thinks is in store for the U.S. currency and gold.

For more information from Robert Prechter, download a FREE 10-page issue of the Elliott Wave Theorist. It challenges current recovery hype with hard facts, independent analysis, and insightful charts. You’ll find out why the worst is NOT over and what you can do to safeguard your financial future. Hurry! This free offer expires June 7.

****

And in case you missed Robert Prechter’s previous Yahoo video (I did), here it is:

"On Schedule for a Very, Very Long Bear Market"

Robert Prechter discussed the recent global sell-off that has sent all major U.S. averages 10% below their 2010 highs with Yahoo! Finance Tech Ticker host Aaron Task on May 20, 2010. Prechter says that the current climate shows that "we’re in a wave of recognition" where the fundamentals are catching up to the technicals and that it’s time to prepare for a "long way down."


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Zero Hedge

For The First Time Since The Crisis, Companies Spent More On Buybacks And Dividends Than They Earned...

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

It will hardly come as a surprise to many, but according to the latest cash flow analysis from Goldman Sachs, 2018 was a record year for S&P 500 cash spending: not only did aggregate spending on capex, R&D, cash acquisitions, dividends, and share repurchases rose by 25% to $2.8 trillion, "the fastest year/year growth in 30 years"...

...



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Phil's Favorites

Fed's Balance Sheet Spikes by $253 Billion, Now Topping $4 Trillion

Courtesy of Pam Martens

By Pam Martens and Russ Martens: October 18, 2019 ~

Shhh! Don’t tell Congress that the Federal Reserve is back to electronically creating money out of thin air to throw at a liquidity problem (of an, as yet, undetermined origin) on Wall Street. And be sure not to mention that the Fed’s balance sheet has shot up in a period of just 42 days by $253 billion. And, of course, don’t remind Congress that before the last Wall Street crisis was over the Fed had secretly, with no oversight from Congress, piled up ...



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Insider Scoop

48 Biggest Movers From Yesterday

Courtesy of Benzinga

Gainers
  • Hepion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ: HEPA) shares climbed 43.2% to close at $3.58 on Thursday after the company announced the publication of a research article, "A Pan-Cyclophilin Inhibitor, CRV431, Decreases Fibrosis and Tumor Development in Chronic Liver Disease Models," in the peer-reviewed Journal of Pharmacology and Experimental Therapeutics.
  • Synthesis Energy Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ: SES) rose 26.9% to close at $9.20 after surging 12.24% on Wednesday.
  • Assembly Biosciences, Inc...


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Kimble Charting Solutions

Bank Index Breakout? Stock Market Bulls Sure Hope So

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

One of the most important sectors of the stock market is the banking industry and bank stocks.

When the banks are healthy, the economy is likely doing well. And when bank stocks are participating in a market rally, then it bodes well for the broader stock market.

In today’s chart, we look at the Bank Index (BKX).

As you can see, the banks have been in a falling channel for the past 20 months. As well, the banks have been lagging the broader market during this time as well – see the Ratio in the bottom half of the chart above.

That said, th...



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The Technical Traders

Currencies Show A Shift to Safety And Maturity - What Does It Mean?

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Recent rotation in multiple foreign currencies hints at the fact that a new stage of the “Capital Shift” process is taking place and that skilled technical investors need to pay very close attention to how these currencies continue to react over the next 3 to 6+ months.  In the recent past, most of the world’s foreign currencies were declining in value while the US Dollar continued to strengthen.  In fact, we authored many research articles about these trends and how weakness in foreign currencies will drive new foreign investment into the US stock markets for two simple reasons; strength and security. 

Now that a few of the world’s most ...



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Chart School

Review of Andrew CardWell RSI with Wyckoff price waves

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

RSI measures relative strength of price action of a set period versus prior set periods. It helps review the price swings or waves, the power of each price thrust into new ground, or lack of it. Price thrust like many things relies on energy, and energy is not a constant, it has a birth, a life and a death and relative strength helps us see that cycle. 

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Digital Currencies

Zuck Delays Libra Launch Date Due To Issues "Sensitive To Society"

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Authored by William Suberg via CoinTelegraph.com,

Facebook is taking a much more careful approach to Libra than its previous projects, CEO Mark Zuckerberg has confirmed. 

“Obviously we want to move forward at some point soon [and] not have this take many years to roll out,” he said. “But ...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Look Out Bears! Fed New QE Now Up to $165 Billion

Courtesy of Lee Adler

I have been warning for months that the Fed would need new QE to counter the impact of massive waves of Treasury supply. I thought that that would come later, rather than sooner. Sorry folks, wrong about that. The NY Fed announced another round of new TOMO (Temporary Open Market Operations) today.

In addition to the $75 billion in overnight repos that the Fed issued and has been rolling over since Tuesday, next week the Fed will issue another $90 billion. They’ll come in the form of three $30 billion, 14 day repos to be offered next week.

That brings the new Fed QE to a total of $165 billion. Even in the worst days of the financial crisis, I can’t remember the Fed ballooning its balance sheet by $165 bi...



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Biotech

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

Courtesy of  , Visual Capitalist

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

As evidence of cannabis’ many benefits mounts, so does the interest from the global pharmaceutical industry, known as Big Pharma. The entrance of such behemoths will radically transform the cannabis industry—once heavily stigmatized, it is now a potentially game-changing source of growth for countless co...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

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Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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