Posts Tagged ‘seasonal adjustments’

DICING THROUGH THE SEASONAL HOUSING ADJUSTMENTS

DICING THROUGH THE SEASONAL HOUSING ADJUSTMENTS

Scene of house with tree, car, clouds and fence made out of recycled materials

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist

Another update from Mark Hanson on the current state of housing.  This is priceless analysis:

-Month’s Supply Dropping Does Not Mean What it Used To

-Annualized Seasonal Adjustments Gone Wild

Inventories — month’s supply – declined for three reasons none of which mean what they have in the past

1) HAMP [Home Affordable Modification Program] keeping foreclosure inventory off the off of the market while foreclosures remain in hot demand. The amount of foreclosure-ready inventory in the foreclosure pipeline has never been greater and much of this will end up as listed MLS supply. However, at the time it is jammed up due to HAMP. This is a sad unintended consequence of mortgage mod initiatives and foreclosure moratoriums. Obviously, there is demand at the low end and HAMP has kept bad owners in houses and real buyers who can afford them, away.

2) Seasonality – many just can’t or won’t sell during the school season so they let their listings expire in September and relist the next year. This is why inventory fell 7.5% MoM. Over the next couple of months when sales fall sharply and inventory remains flattish which is usual from Sept to Oct then month’s supply will jump back up as sharply as it dropped.

3) Epidemic Negative Equity combined with tougher financing keeping 10s of millions from selling and re-buying. In past years, everyone could sell and re-buy even if they had no equity in the house due to exotic finance. Now, you must have at least 10% to pay a Realtor and put a small down payment on an FHA loan. Mid-to-high end buyers must have 20% to 26% equity because of the larger down payments required. In the harder hit states, this takes the majority out of the housing equation indefinitely. However, if prices were to meaningfully move up all of this negative-equity driven shadow supply would appear as millions were finally able to get out. Paying attention to a historic indicator such as month’s supply based upon listed inventory in this unprecedented market will get you into trouble. 

Children riding on a pencil into school

Annualized Seasonal Adjustments Gone Wild

Annualized Seasonal Adjustments went wild in September. September’s spike sets the market up for a serious disappointment in near-term just like the auto


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Zero Hedge

Boeing Considers Suspending 737 MAX Production

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Sources have told The Wall Street Journal that Boeing could temporarily halt production of the 737 Max amid concerns the timeline of ungrounding the aircraft could be pushed further out. The decision to disclose the fate of the 737 Max production could arrive as early as Monday.

Boeing hosted a regular board meeting on Sunday in Chicago. Sources said the fate of the 737 Max production comes days after US regulators criticized Boeing for providing un...



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Phil's Favorites

Powell Spews Baby Poop In Attempt To Reassure Investors

 

Powell Spews Baby Poop In Attempt To Reassure Investors

Courtesy of  

Let’s look at a few of Chairman Pow’s words at yesterday’s press conference. Please read them and tell me whether this sounds to you like a man who doesn’t understand what he’s doing. Or if you think he’s deliberately pulling words out of his ass, stringing them together, and spewing them from his mouth in an effort to gaslight the investing public.

I’ll take the latter. The Fed is in the propaganda business. It knows what it is doing. Double talk, lies, and utter bullshit are its stock-...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Powell Spews Baby Poop In Attempt To Reassure Investors

 

Powell Spews Baby Poop In Attempt To Reassure Investors

Courtesy of  

Let’s look at a few of Chairman Pow’s words at yesterday’s press conference. Please read them and tell me whether this sounds to you like a man who doesn’t understand what he’s doing. Or if you think he’s deliberately pulling words out of his ass, stringing them together, and spewing them from his mouth in an effort to gaslight the investing public.

I’ll take the latter. The Fed is in the propaganda business. It knows what it is doing. Double talk, lies, and utter bullshit are its stock-...



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Insider Scoop

5 Stocks To Watch For December 16, 2019

Courtesy of Benzinga

Some of the stocks that may grab investor focus today are:

  • Wall Street expects HEICO Corporation (NYSE: HEI) to post quarterly earnings at $0.57 per share on revenue of $529.50 million after the closing bell. HEICO shares rose 2.2% to close at $126.18 on Friday.
  • Amarin Corporation plc (NASDAQ: AMRN) reported the FDA approval of VASCEPA to reduce cardiovascular risk. The company s...


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Chart School

Funds are getting ready to move out of USA

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Just before the hang over in the US equity markets, money will move and take their well earned gains else where. Here is why.

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Charts in video.

US is in the late cycle boom.

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US stock market with the US dollar, they have risen together from 2012. A change of this will force money to move.


Cli...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Euro Breakout In Play? Gold Bulls Sure Hope So!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

The Euro has spent much of the past 2 years trading in a down-trend.

Though precious metals like Gold have fared well, this has been a bit of a headwind because it means that the US Dollar has remained firm.

Big Test In Play for the Euro

The Euro is testing a confluence of important support just as the downtrend is narrowing and ready for a “break”. That support includes lower falling wedge support and the Euro’s long term up-trend support line (see points 1 and 2).

If the Euro can succeed in breaking out at (3), it would be bullis...



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Digital Currencies

Three Men Arrested In NJ For Running Alleged $722 Million Crypto Ponzi Scheme

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Authored by Kollen Post via CoinTelegraph.com,

United States authorities in New Jersey have announced the arrest of three men who are accused of defrauding investors of over $722 million as part of alleged crypto ponzie scheme BitClub Network, per a Dec. 10 announcement from the Dep...



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Members' Corner

Tobin Smith: Foxocracy, the 2020 Election, and the Stock Market

 

For decades, Fox News has been spreading false information and hooking its audience into an angry, xenophobic and paranoid worldview. It's no mystery that Fox was instrumental in the 2016 election -- but how did it do it? How did it gain so much influence? Tobin Smith, CEO of Transformity Research, Inc. and former Fox News contributor and talk show host, explores this phenomenon and discusses Fox News’ emotionally predatory and partisan propaganda media strategies and tactics in his new book, ...



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The Technical Traders

VIX Warns Of Imminent Market Correction

Courtesy of Technical Traders

The VIX is warning that a market peak may be setting up in the global markets and that investors should be cautious of the extremely low price in the VIX. These extremely low prices in the VIX are typically followed by some type of increased volatility in the markets.

The US Federal Reserve continues to push an easy money policy and has recently begun acquiring more dept allowing a deeper move towards a Quantitative Easing stance. This move, along with investor confidence in the US markets, has prompted early warning signs that the market has reached near extreme levels/peaks. 

Vix Value Drops Before Monthly Expiration

When the VIX falls to levels below 12~13, this typically v...



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Biotech

Why telling people with diabetes to use Walmart insulin can be dangerous advice

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Why telling people with diabetes to use Walmart insulin can be dangerous advice

A vial of insulin. Prices for the drug, crucial for those with diabetes, have soared in recent years. Oleksandr Nagaiets/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Jeffrey Bennett, Vanderbilt University

About 7.4 million people ...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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