Posts Tagged ‘strategy’

TECHNICAL PERSPECTIVE: WHERE’S THE VOLUME?

TECHNICAL PERSPECTIVE: WHERE’S THE VOLUME?

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist 

By Decision Point:

FROM A SUBSCRIBER: Hi Carl. I’ve never written but have followed you for many years (since AOL) and have learned more about reading the market from you than any other source. You have such a clear and common sense view that it is really refreshing. I love the new daily blogs and am so glad Erin is learning the ropes. I would write her directly, but don’t see her email address anywhere. I rarely disagree with what is said, but in this case I am very suspicious of a bullish interpretation of today’s (May 27) rally, mostly due to the low volume. It seems more like a bear market, short covering rally to me. Was wondering what you think of the volume issue. Thanks for any comments. 

Thanks for the compliment!

I try not to engage in discussions in order to reconcile differences of opinion about the market, because, even if I manage to convince my “opponent”, it doesn’t mean I’ll be right about the outcome. We try to be methodical in our analysis and clear in presenting our conclusions.

After several days of sloppy, downward-sliding price action, on Thursday the market finally had the first day of what could be a full rebound from very oversold conditions. Sloppy action in oversold conditions signals a very dangerous situation, one from which a crash can result, and on Thursday we breathed our first conditional sigh of relief.

While we have emphasized the danger involved “buying into weakness” with oversold markets, we have believed that the odds favor an end to the correction because we are technically in a long-term bull market, and corrections rarely morph into bear markets in those conditions.

It is true that volume was pathetic, but volume has been unimpressive throughout this bull market, and for Thursday there is also the issue of the upcoming Memorial Day weekend. People are leaving town early.

We can also see a clear descending wedge pattern, a bullish pattern which has a high reliability for resolving to the upside.

Chart

Most important is our philosophy that price is primary, breadth and volume are secondary. Not that we don’t look at breadth and volume, but they need to be subjectively interpreted based upon the bull or bear bias of the market. As a result, none of our mechanical timing…
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Study: Option Collar Strategy Beats Buy and Hold by 65%

From the Options Industry Council:

The results of a new study examining the use of options in a collar strategy (both active and passive implementations) on the PowerShares QQQ™ exchange-traded fund (ETF) show it provides superior returns to the traditional buy and hold strategy while reducing risk by almost 65%.

The Options Industry Council (OIC) is pleased to note the study reaffirms the risk management potential of equity options, finding that during the entire 10-year study period, including the sub-periods around the tech bubble and credit crisis, collars significantly outperformed the QQQ, providing much needed capital protection.

Loosening Your Collar: Alternative Implementations of QQQ Collars,” by Edward Szado and Thomas Schneeweis, looked at data from March 1999 to May 2009. It concluded that over the entire 122 month period the passive collar returned almost 150%, while the QQQ lost one-third of its value. The active collar outperformed both strategies and returned more than 200%. 

Additionally, the study simulated a collar on a small-cap mutual fund. The return of the active mutual fund collar was four times the return of the fund, while the standard deviation was about one-third lower. The study was conducted by the Isenberg School of Management’s Center for International Securities and Derivatives Markets (CISDM) at the University of Massachusetts.

Typically, you want to employ a collar to protect a dividend-paying stock from losing value.  We employed this strategy successfully in our last $100K Virtual Portfolio with KMP, who pay a healthy 7.6% dividend but had fallen 35% in 6 months in March.  As we were re-entering the position back at $40 (with a 10% dividend), we were happy to be in it just for the premiums

The study makes for a very interesting read.  We do not employ full collars very often but they are a very useful strategy to know as you can "lock down" your positions when the markets get rough and it's also a great way to vacation-proof your virtual portfolio without having to alter your existing positions.  Also, as noted in the study, an active management approach – like the one we employ in our buy/writes (rolling the short positions along) leads to the greatest benefits over time.  As the OIC says about the strategy:

This strategy offers the stock protection of a put. However, in…
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Phil's Favorites

Oil companies are thinking about a low-carbon future, but aren't making big investments in it yet

 

Oil companies are thinking about a low-carbon future, but aren't making big investments in it yet

Oil pump jacks in Williston, N.D. AP Photo/Eric Gay

Courtesy of Lewis Fulton, University of California, Davis and Daniel Sperling, University of California, Davis

The global oil industry stands at a crossroads. Corporate leaders are weighing how closely to stay wedded to their legacy business ...



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Zero Hedge

EU Reportedly Pushes Decision On Brexit Delay Until Friday

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Amid rumors that UK PM Boris Johnson might capitulate and agree to delay Brexit Day until the end of January, reports have surfaced claiming that the EU won't release its decision on postponement until Friday.

  • EU DECISION ON BREXIT DELAY WILL PROBABLY COME FRIDAY: OFFICIALS

Sources from within No. 10 Downing Street have reportedly been talking with reporters all day, claiming that if there is an extension, the Johnson government will opt to push for an election, and that the conservatives will campaign on their plan.

...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

S&P Needs This Key Indicator To Experience A Breakout!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Is a leading Tech sector about to send the broad market a key message? In our opinion, yes!

This chart looks at the Semiconductor/S&P ratio over the past couple of years.

When the ratio peaked around March of last year at (1), numerous indices in the states (NYSE, Mid-Caps, Small Caps) and around the world (EEM & EFA) started to create a series of lower highs.

The SMH/SPY ratio is again testing the highs of early 2018 at (2).

Many indices in the states and around the world, need this ratio to continue to move higher/experience if the...



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Insider Scoop

A Peek Into The Markets: US Stock Futures Down; Crude Oil Falls 1%

Courtesy of Benzinga

Pre-open movers

U.S. stock futures traded lower in early pre-market trade. The FHFA house price index for August will be released at 9:00 a.m. ET.

Futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 27 points to 26,736 while the Standard & Poor’s 500 index futures traded fell 2.75 points to 2,991.75. Futures for the Nasdaq 100 index fell 5.25 points to 7,853.50.

...



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Digital Currencies

Blockchain voting is vulnerable to hackers, software glitches and bad ID photos - among other problems

 

Blockchain voting is vulnerable to hackers, software glitches and bad ID photos – among other problems

How secure is online voting with blockchain technology? WhiteDragon/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Nir Kshetri, University of North Carolina – Greensboro

A developing technology called “blockchain” has gotten attention from election officials, startups and even Democratic presidential candidate Andrew Yang as a ...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Repo Market Bank Regulations and the Slings And Arrows of Outrageous Leverage

 

Repo Market Bank Regulations and the Slings And Arrows of Outrageous Leverage

Courtesy of 

Are repo market regulations really behind the money market’s problems? That’s what bankers and their hired mouthpieces are saying.

So I need to get a few things off my chest about this notion that post financial crash Dodd-Frank bank regulations are the cause of the current repo market problems.

It’s total bullsh*t. The bankers and their superleveraged hed...



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The Technical Traders

Daily Market Forecast and Trading Patterns

Courtesy of Technical Traders

CLICK HERE TO GET REAL TIME TRADE ALERTS!

...

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Chart School

Gold Stocks Review

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Gold stocks are swinging back forth between the range, and a break out swing higher is due. Gold stocks are holding a near perfect Wyckoff accumulation pattern. All should get ready to play this sector. Yet we must recognize that gold stocks are a one of the most crazy rides at the stock market fair, so play very carefully.

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GDX PnF chart from within the video

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Important channels around the HUI.
...

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Biotech

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

Courtesy of  , Visual Capitalist

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

As evidence of cannabis’ many benefits mounts, so does the interest from the global pharmaceutical industry, known as Big Pharma. The entrance of such behemoths will radically transform the cannabis industry—once heavily stigmatized, it is now a potentially game-changing source of growth for countless co...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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