According to a new study, construction was impacted more than any other industry studied, with American-born workers losing more jobs than immigrants as a result of the deportations.
The Trump administration has long claimed that mass deportations would deliver more jobs and higher wages to American-born workers. But a new study casts doubt on that assertion, undermining a central tenet of the president’s immigration policy.
Recent surges in deportations have led to job losses for both immigrant and American-born workers, while wages have stayed flat, according to the study, published by the National Bureau of Economic Research, a nonpartisan research organization. Construction, which depends heavily on immigrant labor, was impacted more than any other industry studied, with American-born workers losing more jobs as a result of the deportations than the undocumented workers who remained.
The study offers the first national analysis of the effects of the Trump administration’s aggressive deportation operations on the labor market, comparing communities that experienced surges in deportations between January 2025 and October 2025 with those that did not.
Summary
This article argues that President Trump’s mass deportation policies are not producing the economic benefits promised by the administration and may actually be hurting American workers — especially in construction.
The piece centers on a new study from the National Bureau of Economic Research that examined areas with large deportation surges between January and October 2025. Researchers found that deportations reduced employment not only for undocumented workers, but also for American-born workers, while wages remained largely unchanged.
Construction was hit hardest because the industry depends heavily on immigrant labor. The study estimates that about 15% of construction workers are undocumented. As workers disappeared through deportation or self-deportation, companies often slowed projects or reduced production instead of raising wages to attract more American workers.
One of the study’s most striking findings was that for every immigration arrest in construction, roughly six American-born workers lost jobs compared with four undocumented workers. Researchers argue this happens because construction projects require entire teams with specialized skills. Losing part of the workforce can delay or cancel projects altogether, affecting everyone involved.
The article also connects the labor shortage to America’s housing crisis. Home construction was already struggling from high interest rates, rising material costs, and an aging workforce. Deportations are now worsening those shortages, potentially reducing housing supply further and increasing costs.
Several contractors interviewed described severe disruptions. Some immigrant workers left voluntarily out of fear of ICE raids, projects were delayed, businesses temporarily shut down, and some firms lost large portions of their staff. Many contractors said they could not find enough replacement workers, particularly American-born applicants with construction trade skills.
The article does include one opposing perspective: a Miami contractor argued that stricter enforcement could eventually help licensed firms by reducing competition from cheaper, unlicensed labor. But overall, the article’s conclusion is that the deportation surge is creating labor shortages, slowing construction, and harming parts of the broader economy rather than producing the expected boom in jobs or wages for native-born workers.
