Posts Tagged ‘trade deficits’

US Dollar About to Lose Reserve Currency Status – Fact or Fantasy?

Courtesy of Mish

A number of sites are commenting on a Bloomberg video in which El-Erian, PIMCO Co-CEO says "Dollar could lose its reserve currency status".


Bloomberg: "Mohammad what does a weak dollar signal to you, a dollar that can’t jump up here on a day like we’ve seen today?"

El-Erian: "It is a warning shot to America that we cannot simply assume flight to quality, flight to safety. That people are starting to worry about the fiscal situation in the U.S. They are starting to worry about the level of debt. They are starting to worry about what they hear about states and municipalities. So, I would take this as a warning shot that we cannot assume that we will maintain the standing of the reserve currency as we have in the past."

Reserve Currency Definition

Before we can debate whether or not the US will lose reserve currency standing, we must first define what it means.

Investopedia defines Reserve Currency as follows.

"A foreign currency held by central banks and other major financial institutions as a means to pay off international debt obligations, or to influence their domestic exchange rate."

I accept that definition. Unfortunately Investopedia rambles on with nonsense about the implications: "A large percentage of commodities, such as gold and oil, are usually priced in the reserve currency,causing other countries to hold this currency to pay for these goods."

That sentence is a widely believed fallacy. The reality is no country is obligated to hold dollars to buy goods denominated in dollars.

Currencies are Fungible

Currencies other that illiquid currencies with low or no trading volume (think of Yap Island stones or the Cuban Peso) are fungible. It is a trivial process to switch from one currency to another.

You can buy gold or silver in any country, and I assure you those transactions do not all take place in dollars. Thus, just because a commodity is widely priced in dollars does not mean it only trades in dollars.

That holds true for oil as well.

I keep pointing this out, unfortunately to no avail, that oil trades in Euros right now. There is no selling of Euros to buy dollars on the front causing the oil producers to trade dollars for euros on the back end. The oil states simply sell oil for a price in Euros and then hold Euros in their…
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How Will China Handle The Yuan?

How Will China Handle The Yuan?

China Courtesy of Mish

Inquiring minds are asking "How Will China Handle The Yuan?"

It’s a good question, too. Lance Lewis has a conversation with Professor Ryan Krueger in How China Will Handle the Yuan describing how it might play out. Please click on the above link for one possibility.

Here is the same conversation except with me replying to Lance instead of Professor Ryan Krueger.

Lance Lewis: You notice the extra chunky volume in the Chinese Yuan ETF (CYB) yesterday at the same time that the dollar reversed violently?

Mish: This violent reversal?

$USD

That looks like normal day to day action to me.

Lance: I’m telling ya. Something is up with China and the yuan. It would explain a lot. What if it were close to revaluing against the dollar?

We know it’s fed up with funding US debt, but it can’t stop funding it as long as it continues to peg to the dollar and is forced to buy dollars every day in order to hold down the yuan. The US isn’t even its largest export market anymore. The EU is. The US consumer is broke. Why does China need to keep exporting cheap goods to the US if the US consumer can’t buy them anyway?

yuan notes, chinaNow look at the recent market action in August. Normally when Chinese stocks go down, the dollar rallies and commodities get hit, just like in early August when people were betting on “the usual.” But this time, after the initial knee-jerk reaction to Chinese stocks sliding, “the usual” didn’t happen. Oil is now back on its highs. Gold is close to breaking out, and the dollar is back on its low for the year. And all of this is occurring even as Chinese stocks are back on their lows as of last night?

China revaluing the yuan is the only thing that fits, and the US Treasury may even have an inkling that it’s coming, which would explain why Obama suddenly renominated Gentle Ben on a Tuesday in late August when he was supposedly on vacation. Rather odd timing, but not so if the intent was to remove as much uncertainty as possible as to who will be running the Federal Reserve going forward in order to prevent complete panic in the dollar and Treasuries if China were to one…
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Phil's Favorites

Consumer Bureau To Decide Who Owns Your Financial Data

 

Consumer Bureau To Decide Who Owns Your Financial Data

What Should Banks, Fintechs Be Allowed to Do With All that They Know About You?

Courtesy of Jillian S. Ambroz, DCReport

A federal agency is gearing up to make wide-ranging policy changes on consumers’ access to their financial data.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) is looking to implement the area of the 2010 Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act pertaining to a consumer’s rights to his or her own financial data. It is detailed in section 1033.

The agency has been ...



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Zero Hedge

Cali Mansion Once Listed For $100 Million Sells For "Only" $48.4 Million

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Today in "a look into a luxury real estate market you will never likely participate in" news...

A famous L.A. mansion called "Opus" that was once listed for $100 million and has been on the market for over three years has finally sold - at a more than 50% haircut.

The 20,000 square foot mansion sold for $48.4 million this week, furniture included, according to Bloomberg. It is also the lates...



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Politics

Mythmakers: The Men Who Created Donald J. Trump

 

Mythmakers: The Men Who Created Donald J. Trump

Mark Burnett, Jeff Zucker, and the Trustwashing of a Fake President

Courtesy of Greg Olear, Prevail, author of Dirty Rubles: An Introduction to Trump/Russia 

...

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ValueWalk

Einhorn's Greenlight Capital Re And Icahn's Icahn Enterprises

By The Acquirer's Multiple. Originally published at ValueWalk.

During their recent episode of the VALUE: After Hours Podcast, Taylor, Brewster, and Carlisle discussed Einhorn‘s Greenlight Capital Re (NASDAQ:GLRE) and Icahn’s Icahn Enterprises LP (NASDAQ:IEP). Here’s an excerpt from the episode:

Q3 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

Einhorn's Greenlight Capital Re And Icahn's Icahn Enterprises

Tobias: Einhorn genius for a decade. The GOAT for a decade, a GOAT for the last decade. I think it could be back to the GOAT stage, possibly for the...



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Biotech/COVID-19

Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine is cheaper than Pfizer's and Moderna's and doesn't require supercold temperature

 

Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine is cheaper than Pfizer's and Moderna's and doesn't require supercold temperature

Now there is a third possible vaccine for fighting the COVID-19 pandemic. Jakub Porzycki/NurPhoto via Getty Images

Courtesy of Sanjay Mishra, Vanderbilt University

The biopharmaceutical company AstraZeneca has released data on what is now the third promising vaccine candidate against COVID-19 – and it has several advantages over those of its competitors, ...



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Chart School

RTT browsing latest..

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Please review a collection of WWW browsing results. The information here is delayed by a few months, members get the most recent content.



Date Found: Friday, 12 June 2020, 08:06:43 PM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.


Comment: Interesting (2)



Date Found: Saturday, 13 June 2020, 12:27:02 AM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.


Comment: Recession Forecasts Time Frame



Date Found: Monday, 15 June 2020, 11:07:52 PM

...

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Kimble Charting Solutions

Transports Sending Strong Bullish Message To Other Dow Indices?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Are Transportation stocks about to send a quality bullish message to other Dow indices this month? Sure could be!

This 3-pack looks at the Dow Jones Industrials, Transports, and Utilities indices on a monthly basis.

One week from the end of a month, the DJ Transports are attempting an important bullish breakout at (1). Unless a sharp reversal takes place in the next week, Transports could close out the month at new monthly closing highs!

The Dow is attempting to close at all-time highs this month, while the Dow Utilities Index remains a few percent below 2020 highs....



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Digital Currencies

Dalio Admits "I Might Be Missing Something" As Bitcoin Surges Above $18,000

Courtesy of ZeroHedge

Since the US election, Bitcoin prices (in USD) have surged a stunning 40%, also lurching higher after each vaccine headline hit.

Source: Bloomberg

Getting ever closer to its all-time record high...

Source: Bloomberg

As crypto prices soared overnight, Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio stepped back into the fray, saying in a Twitter thread that “I might be missing something about Bitco...



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Mapping The Market

COVID-19 Forces More Than Half of Asset Management Firms to Accelerate Adoption of Digital Marketing Technology

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

There is no doubt that the use of technology to support client engagement initiatives brings both opportunities and threats but this has been brought into sharp focus this year with the COVID-19 pandemic.

The crisis has brought to the fore the need for firms to enable flexibility in client engagement – the expectation that providers will communicate to clients on their terms, at their speed and frequency and on their preferred channels, is now a given. This is even more critical when clients are experiencing unparalleled anxiety from both market conditions and their own personal circumstances.

...

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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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Promotions

Free, Live Webinar on Stocks, Options and Trading Strategies

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Feb. 26, 1pm EST

Click HERE to join the PSW weekly webinar at 1 pm EST.

Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

This week, we also have a special presentation from Mike Anton of TradeExchange.com. It's a new service that we're excited to be a part of! 

Mike will show off the TradeExchange's new platform which you can try for free.  

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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