Posts Tagged ‘unwind’

So It’s Official: IMF / Carry Trades

So It’s Official: IMF / Carry Trades

Courtesy of Karl Denninger at The Market Ticker

You can put a fork in us down the road….

The U.S. currency dropped against 12 of its 16 major counterparts as the International Monetary Fund said traders are probably using the dollar to fund so-called carry trades around the world and it may still be overvalued.

I hope everyone here in The United States takes a moment to understand what this means.  Let me lay it out for you:

  • When the global economy truly recovers oil will skyrocket up to or beyond the $150 where it was in late 2008.  If the dollar is indeed still "overvalued" and going to 40 as many technicians predict, oil will likely reach $300 a barrel.  This will in turn drive gasoline prices north of $6, heating oil will reach $7-8/gallon, and diesel will be commensurate with heating oil. 
  • This will in turn decimate the trucking industry.  Now you know why Buffett bought BNI.  Many things he may be, but dumb isn’t one of them.  Trucks will of course remain for terminal-to-door deliveries but for long-haul they will simply be uneconomic.  Those who currently are employed in this business will lose their jobs.  All of them. 
  • The middle class will be decimated.  Those who live in suburbia, who are primarily middle-class Americans, will find themselves faced with commute costs that are double or more what they pay now.  Those in the middle class who live in the Northeast where heating oil is the primary fuel for winter, where natural gas infrastructure does not exist to replace heating oil, will find themselves choosing between heat and food in large numbers.
Surging Oil Industry Brings Opportunity To Rural California

What’s far worse is that all carry trades eventually unwind and in the history of the markets I have never seen it happen in an "orderly" fashion.  Japan witnessed the destruction of the Yen Carry last year and it was horrific.  We will see it in the future – exactly when cannot be predicted with certainty, but that it will happen in an uncontrolled fashion will be.  While this "unwind" will bring relief from sky-high commodity prices it will do so at the expense of asset prices, which will collapse.

Our government has, quite simply,…
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Zero Hedge

Coronavirus Kills Man In Shanghai As China Confirms Nearly 2,000 Cases

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Summary
  • First nCoV death reported in Shanghai
  • South Korea confirms third case
  • Toronto health officials to announce first 'presumptive case' of coronavirus in Canada
  • 1975 Cases Worldwide; 56 deaths (still about a 3% mortality rate)
  • 18 Chinese cities - 56 million people - quarantined
  • President Xi said China faces a 'grave situation' as the spread is 'accelerating'
  • US and Russia plan...


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Phil's Favorites

Preparing For Lower Returns

 

Preparing For Lower Returns

Courtesy of 

We’ve been hearing about the prospect of lower future returns for U.S. based investors for years now*. The thesis behind this is fairly straightforward; high recent returns coupled with high valuations in the stock market, and low interest rates in the bond market is not conducive to further above average returns.

Consider the following:

  • A U.S. only 60/40 portfolio has compounded at 10.5% over the last 10 years.
  • The CAPE ratio is at 30.9
  • The ten-year treasury is currently yielding 1.8%

...



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Insider Scoop

BofA Downgrades Wynn Resorts On Wuhan Coronavirus Concerns

Courtesy of Benzinga

After initially dismissing the potential impact of the Wuhan coronavirus on Macau gaming stocks, one Wall Street analyst downgraded Wynn Resorts, Limited (NASDAQ: WYNN) on Monday due to concerns over the virus’ potential impact on Macau travel.

The Analyst

Bank of America analyst Shaun Kelley downgraded Wyn...



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Chart School

Top Patterns for Retail Investors

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Retail investors are last in line for market leading research, no matter, the retail investor can profit from these secret sauce patterns..

Well not so secret now, the main point is you do not have to climb Mount Everest to be called a mountain climber, there are many other hills to climb to make your mark. Just like stocks.

You do not have to battle with the high frequency traders to win in the markets, there are long and slow methods to do just as well.  

More from RTT Tv







Some charts from the video


...

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The Technical Traders

The Wuhan Wipeout - Could It Happen?

Courtesy of Technical Traders

News is traveling fast about the Corona Virus that originated in Wuhan, China. Two new confirmed cases in the US, one in Europe and hundreds in China. As we learn more about thispotential pandemic outbreak, we are learning that China did very little to contain this problem from the start. Now, quarantining two cities and trying to control the potential
outbreak, may become a futile effort.

In most of Asia, the Chinese New Year is already in full swing.  Hong Kong, China, Singapore, Malaysia, India and a host of other countries are already starting to celebrate the 7 to 10 day long New Year.  Millions of people have already traveled hundreds of thousands of miles to visit family...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Bad News For Crude Oil Should Come From This Pattern, Says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

It’s a good idea for investors to be aware of key indicators and inter-market relationships.

Perhaps it’s watching the US Dollar as an indicator for precious metals or emerging markets. Or watching interest rates for the economy. Experience, history, and relationships matter. And it’s good to simply add these to our tool-kit.

Today, we look at another relationship that has signaled numerous stock market tops and bottoms over the years, and especially the past several months, Crude Oil.

When crude oil tops or bottoms, it seems that ...



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Biotech

Snakes could be the original source of the new coronavirus outbreak in China

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Snakes could be the original source of the new coronavirus outbreak in China

Chinese cobra (Naja atra) with hood spread. Briston/Wikimedia, CC BY-SA

Haitao Guo, University of Pittsburgh; Guangxiang “George” Luo, Univers...



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Members' Corner

The War on All Fact People

 

David Brin shares an excerpt from his new book on the relentless war against democracy and how we can fight back. You can also read the first, second and final chapters of Polemical Judo at David's blog Contrary Brin.

The War on All Fact People 

Excerpted from David Brin's new book, the beginning of chapter 5, Polemical Judo: Memes...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

 

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

Courtesy of  

The repo market problem isn’t the problem. It’s a sideshow, a diversion, and a joke. It’s a symptom of the problem.

Today, I got a note from Liquidity Trader subscriber David, a professional investor, and it got me to thinking. Here’s what David wrote:

Lee,

The ‘experts’ I hear from keep saying that once 300B more in reserves have ...



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Digital Currencies

Cryptos Have Surged Since Soleimani Death, Bitcoin Tops $8,000

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Bitcoin is up over 15% since the assassination of Iran General Soleimani...

Source: Bloomberg

...topping $8,000 for the first time since before Thanksgiving...

Source: Bloomberg

Testing its key 100-day moving-average for the first time since October...

...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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