Posts Tagged ‘Zero Hedge’

Exclusive: Presenting The Flash Crashes Of 2010 – Part 1

Exclusive: Presenting The Flash Crashes Of 2010 – Part 1

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

high frequency tradingIn an exclusive collaboration between Nanex and Zero Hedge, we are pleased to present to our readers the first part of a multi-series project that will demonstrate the flash crashes of 2010, and subsequently, of 2009 and 2008. The concern is that since the number of mini crashes, precipitated in most part by HFT algorithms gone wild, is simply staggering, it is impossible to present all the individual events in one presentation due to size limitations. The reason – there have been 549 "flash crash" events in 2010 to date alone! We dare anyone at the SEC to go through this list and look anyone in the eye and tell them that i) the market is not broken and ii) that High Frequency Trading is not a major scourge to proper and efficiently operating markets. And while we do not want to take away from the recent uproar at ETFs, courtesy of the Kauffman foundation (and its chairman who as we presented earlier has a rather sizable conflict of interest in DST Systems, Inc) none of the presented 549 crashes are ETFs implicated: this is (mostly) all HFT, baby, all the way.

Without further ado, we present the first part of our joint presentation: the mini flash crashes of Q1, all 112 of them. As there are 64 work days between 1/1/2010 and 3/31/2010 (excluding holidays) this amounts to 1.75 mini crashes per day (and wait until you see Q2). And this is a market that the SEC would like to have you believe is perfectly operational…

The crashes are presented in chronological order.

We urge readers to distribute this report to friends and relatives, as we hope that people can finally understand what a complete and broken scam the US stock market is. That said, we expressly prohibit the creation of "per click" slideshow decks out of the underlying data.

The Flash Crashes of 2010 – Q1 (pdf)


Q1 Flash Crashes

Attachment Size
Q1 Flash Crashes.pdf 1.24 MB

Picture courtesy of Jr. Deputy Accountant


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A Whiff of a “Mini” QE-2?

A Whiff of a “Mini” QE-2?

1955:  Beer casks must be spotlessly clean, and the best judge of their cleanliness is by smelling the bung hole on the beer barrel. Dick Hart from the Whitbread Brewery in London shows how it is done.  (Photo by Juliette Lasserre/BIPs/Getty Images)

Courtesy of Bruce Krasting

The 100% certain sure thing in the market today is that QE-2 will come on November 3rd and that it will be decisive in its scope. Well I am not so sure any more.

-The Fed’s Beige Book from yesterday did not make a case for an economy that needed emergency measures. Yes there was some discussion about the weak housing market and soft loan demand. But we know that QE-2 is not going to fix those problems.

-It is of significance to me (and should be to all) that Zero Hedge was featured in a Time/CNN article titled, Will the Federal Reserve Start a Civil War?

I am certain that the Fed reads Zero Hedge. But how much influence they have is a question. When it gets up to Time magazine however, it is another matter altogether. It is not possible for the Fed to avoid the collective roar that is coming from across the country at this point. If the Fed blunders with an unpopular QE-2 the results will be disastrous. Not only will the economy tank but the Fed will have lost a good chunk of its remaining credibility. The downside risks to Bernanke are enormous. I don’t think he believes he is in a popularity contest, but he does know he can’t run monetary policy with protesters outside his door. How much is he prepared to gamble given that he clearly does not have a consensus amongst his own board? He is an academic, not a gambler.

-Today St. Louis Fed Bullard made remarks to reporters that were a warning sign to me (and the market). He talked a much different game than what has been dished out of late. He made reference to a smaller program. Maybe less than $500billion (about half what is now in the street). He also threw out something that blew me away. He suggested that the 11/3 decision was in someway dependant on the Q3 GDP numbers that come out before the Fed meets. Bullard even “spun” the numbers on the hot side:

"it may come in a little stronger than the second quarter." So we have to keep our eye on that."

Bond traders shit in their pants and hit bids on long coupons. I like…
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Why Nobody Trades During Regular Hours Any More (And How Prop Funds Just Stop Trading When Volatility Spikes)

Why Nobody Trades During Regular Hours Any More (And How Prop Funds Just Stop Trading When Volatility Spikes)

HFTCourtesy of Tyler Durden at Zero Hedge 

For those who follow our periodic updates on intraday stock volume, today’s article by the Wall Street Journal which focuses on the dramatic decline in activity during regular working hours will come as no surprise. In a piece looking at prop trading shop Briargate (oh so witty anagram of arbitrage), founded by several former NYSE specialists, we learn that at least one firm (and likely many more) now no longer does any trading during the hours of 11 to 2. As this creates a feedback loop of inactivity, pretty soon the core of daily stock market activity will merely be the half an hour of action at the open, and the dark pool-ETF-open exchange rebalance at the very close, with everything inbetween deemed obsolete.

Of course, what this will do, is create even more volatility in trading, force an even greater decline in stock trading volumes (and pain for Wall Street firms), and a further divergence between stocks and fundamentals, as momentum trading gains an even more prominent role in determine "price discovery."

From the WSJ:

On the day the "flash crash" bludgeoned the stock market and chaos swept over the floor of the New York Stock Exchange, the founders of Briargate Trading were at the movies.

Rick Oscher and Steven Rubinstein weren’t playing hooky. Briargate, a proprietary-trading firm that the two former NYSE floor "specialist" traders started in 2008, is mostly active at the stock market’s open and close.

In between, when market activity typically drops, the Wall Street veterans play tennis in Central Park, take leisurely lunches, visit their children’s schools and work out at the gym. Dress shoes have been replaced with flip-flops, slacks with cargo shorts. Once during market hours, they walked about five miles and crossed the Brooklyn Bridge to try Grimaldi’s pizza.

"We actually planned on working a full day," says Mr. Oscher, wearing a white polo shirt and blue-plaid shorts. "But from 11 to 2, the markets are pretty quiet—what’s the point? As a specialist, you have to stand in your spot all day and we did that for 20 years."

Briargate—an anagram of "arbitrage"—isn’t the only firm taking an extended recess during the 6½-hour U.S. trading day. Trading has become increasingly concentrated in the


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How Keynesian Archduke Krugman Recommended A Housing Bubble As A Solution To All Of America’s Post Tech Bubble Problems

How Keynesian Archduke Krugman Recommended A Housing Bubble As A Solution To All Of America’s Post Tech Bubble Problems

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

Girl Playing with Bubbles

The year is 2002, America has just woken up with the worst post dot.com hangover ever. Paul Krugman then, just as now, writes worthless op-eds for the NYT. And then, just as now, the Keynsian acolyte recommended excess spending as the solution to all of America problems. Only this one time, at band camp, Krugman went too far. If there is one thing that everyone can agree on, it is that the Housing Bubble is arguably the worst thing to ever happen to America, bringing with it such pestilence and locusts as the credit bubble, the end of free market capitalism, and the inception of American-style crony capitalism. Those who ignored it, even though it was staring them in the face, such as Greenspan and Bernanke, now have their reputation teetering on the edge of oblivion. So what can we say of those who openly endorsed it as a solution to America’s problems?

Enter exhibit A: New York Times, August 2, 2002, "Dubya’s Double Dip?" Name the author: "The basic point is that the recession of 2001 wasn’t a typical postwar slump, brought on when an inflation-fighting Fed raises interest rates and easily ended by a snapback in housing and consumer spending when the Fed brings rates back down again. This was a prewar-style recession, a morning after brought on by irrational exuberance. To fight this recession the Fed needs more than a snapback; it needs soaring household spending to offset moribund business investment. And to do that, as Paul McCulley of Pimco put it, Alan Greenspan needs to create a housing bubble to replace the Nasdaq bubble." If you said Krugman, you win. Indeed, the idiocy of Keynesianism knew no bounds then, as it does now. The solution then, as now, to all problems was more bubbles, more spending, more deficits. So we have the implosion tech bubble: And what does Krugman want to create, to fix it? Why, create a housing bubble… Well, at least we know now how that advice played out.

BY TONY ROBERT-HENRY. DR. PINEL LIVED FROM 1745-1826. INSANE ASYLUM OUTSIDE PARIS. DR.PHILIPPE PINEL AT SALPETRIERE, INSANE ASYLUM

And now what? He wants another trillion in fiscal stimulus… Quadrillion? Sextillion (arguably this cool sounding number is at least 2-4 years away before the Fed brings it into the daily vernacular)?…
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Tim Backshall On Europe: “Default Now Or Default Later” As EuroStat Complains That Greece Is Still Withholding Critical Data

Tim Backshall On Europe: "Default Now Or Default Later" As EuroStat Complains That Greece Is Still Withholding Critical Data

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

There is one major problem with putting houses of card back together – they tend to fall…over and over. And while abundant liquidity in May and June served as an artificial prop to return European core and PIIGS spreads to previous levels merely as mean reversion algos took holds, the second time around won’t be as lucky. CDR’s Tim Backshall was on the Strategy Session today, discussing the key trends in sovereign products over the past few months, noting the declining liquidity in both sovereign cash and derivative exposure (we will refresh on the DTCC sovereign data later after its weekly Tuesday update). Yet the most interesting observation by Backshall is the declining halflife of risk-on episodes, which much like the SNB’s (now declining) interventions, are having less of an impact on the market, as ever worsening fundamentals can only be swept under the carpet for so long before they really start stinking up the place, and indeed, as Tim points out at 5:30 into the interview, even the IMF now realizes that soon the eventual second domino will fall, and it is better the be prepared (via the previously discussed infinitely expanded credit line), than to have to scramble in the last minute as was necessary in May. In other words, the storm clouds are gathering and only fools will invest in risk asset without getting some additional clarity on what is happening in Europe. The bottom line as Backshall asks is: "do they default now or default later." And that pretty much sums it up. Buy stocks at your own peril.

Incidentally all this is happening as we read in an exclusive Bloomberg piece that "four months after the 110 billion- euro ($140 billion) bailout for Greece, the nation still hasn’t disclosed the full details of secret financial transactions it used to conceal debt" and that EuroStat still has not received the required disclosure about just how fake (or real) the Greek debt situation truly is. When one steps back and ponders just how bad (and unknown) the situation in Europe is, and that stocks are unchanged for the year, one must conclude, as Dylan Grice does every week, that the lunatics have truly taken over the asylum.


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Alan Greenspan Admits America Is A Crony Capitalist System

Excellent, brief summary of where we stand now, by Tyler at Zero Hedge. 

Alan Greenspan Admits America Is A Crony Capitalist System

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

We are not sure what is more amusing: the Masetro’s unwitting (and quite correct) observation that America is now nothing but a crony capitalist country, or his attempt to back out of what he said that so perfectly captures the essence of the failed corporatocracy currently raging in America.

In the following exchange from a DemocracyNow interview, Greenspan is forced to respond to his quote from Age Of Turbulence on the definition of crony capitalism: "When a government’s leaders or businesses routinely seek out private sector individuals or business, and in exchange for political support bestow favors on them, the society is said to be in the grip of crony capitalism. The favors generally take the form of monopoly access to certain markets, preferred access to sales of government assets, and special access to those in power."

Greenspan’s pathetic excuse is that while crony capitalism is a "dominant force" in some other regimes, it is "not the dominant force in this country." Perhaps all those who are fighting with the virtual monopoly granted to certain players, such as Goldman in fixed income trading, and Pimco in government bonds, would beg to differ. So yes, according to the Greenspan definition America is now nothing more than a crony capitalist society, which will only get worse as more and more power is granted to those who are believed to be able to ramp various asset classes, and thus the market in general, higher, because as Greenspan himself pointed out recently, nothing is as important a "driver" to the economy as the stock market: "if the stock market continues higher it will do more to stimulate the economy than any other measure we have discussed here". In the administration’s pursuit of Dow 36,000 to prove that all is well, America has given up on its core constitutional tenets, and is now nothing better than a dictatorial regime in some far-eastern backwater country.

Fast forward to 44:40 in the clip below (after the jump) to see the exchange.

h/t Geoffrey Batt

Photo: Courtesy of Jr. Deputy Accountant 


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Artist’s Rendering Of Rahm Emanuel’s Desktop

Artist’s Rendering Of Rahm Emanuel’s Desktop

Courtesy of Tyler Durden at Zero Hedge 

We continue with our series of artist renderings of various infamous desktops (previously Barack Obama, Ben Bernanke, Tim Geithner, and Lloyd Blankfein). Today, we focus on that of administration straight shooter Rahm Emanuel.

h/t Mike


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Can You Hear Me Now? 17th Weekly Fund Outflow As Equity Fund Redemptions Accelerate

Can You Hear Me Now? 17th Weekly Fund Outflow As Equity Fund Redemptions Accelerate

Courtesy of Tyler Durden at Zero Hedge 

This is just getting silly: perhaps the next update on ICI mutual fund flows should occur if there is an inflow for once…ever again. In the meantime, ICI reports we have just recorded the 17th consecutive weekly outflow from domestic equity mutual funds, and what’s worse for mutual funds’ depleted liquidity ratios, it is now accelerating, hitting a total of $4.3 billion, a more than 50% increase from last week’s $2.7 billion. YTD outflows have now hit $54 billion, as ever more capital is going into far safer fixed income instruments. As a reminder, here is what Rosenberg said on the issue yesterday: "As for liquidity ratios, equity funds portfolio manages have theirs at an all-time low of 3.4%, down from 3.8% in June. Tack on the fact that there are really not very many shorts to be covered – since the market peaked in April, short interest is 4.3% of the S&P 500 market cap (in August 2008 it was 6%) and there’s not a whole lot of underlying fund-flow support for the stock market here." As for this being a contrarian signal, hopefully all those who see this as a buying opportunity can also find a way to make the now retiring baby boomers about 10 years younger and force them away from fixed income capital reallocation. Oh, and fix the broken market and restore investor confidence that the casino is only modestly rigged.

In the meantime, no matter what the market does (and somehow it has been flat during the entire period of record redemptions: good to know someone is putting capital into stocks), on a short-term basis, nobody wants to touch it with a ten foot pole. Retail is no longer fascinated by speculating and day trading: after all why should they – they get better odds in Vegas… where the decor puts the aging CNBC female anchor crew to shame.


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Rosenberg On The Visible Hand Of Central Planning

Rosenberg On The Visible Hand Of Central Planning

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

 

 I’m this many, how many are you?

So you thought communist states go down without a fight? Wrong: here is Rosenberg who explains why both China and the US are now actively involved in the business of propping up anything and everything. And totally off topic, Rosie confirms that the liquidity trends in the mutual fund industry continue to deteriorate: "As for liquidity ratios, equity funds portfolio manages have theirs at an all-time low of 3.4%, down from 3.8% in June. Tack on the fact that there are really not very many shorts to be covered – since the market peaked in April, short interest is 4.3% of the S&P 500 market cap (in August 2008 it was 6%) and there’s not a whole lot of underlying fund-flow support for the stock market here." In other words, throw in a few more market down days, a few more weeks of redemptions (and at 16 weeks in a row, there is no reason why this should change), and the liquidation theme will promptly be added to the new normal.

 

THE VISIBLE HAND

The two largest economies in the world are being sustained by the long arm of the law. At least in China it’s to be expected that a communist country would be fuelled by command central, but in this miracle story, below the surface it is becoming abundantly clear that Beijing is becoming increasingly involved. The front page article of the Monday NYT uncovered how the economy is delivering its red-hot growth rates: “New data from the World Bank show that the proportion of industrial production by companies controlled by the Chinese state edged up last year … investment by state-controlled companies skyrocketed, driven by hundreds of billions of government spending and state bank lending.” No wonder the Chinese economy and stock market have diverged.

Is it really much different in the U.S.A. today with every 1 in 6 Americans now receiving some form of government assistance? More than 50 million Americans, from food stamps, to Medicaid, to extended jobless benefits, are on one or more taxpayer-supported programs. This likely explains why this depression does not have that 1930s feel of despair to it. But a depression it is.

In a depression, radical


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Second Hindenburg Omen Confirmation In As Many Days, Third H.O. Event In One Week

Second Hindenburg Omen Confirmation In As Many Days, Third H.O. Event In One Week

1937:  The German-built airship 'Hindenburg' (LZ-129) flying over New York City, showing the swastika symbol on its tail. Filled with the flammable gas hydrogen, the Zeppelin caught fire in May of the same year, killing 36 people.  (Photo by Keystone/Getty Images)

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

Longs may be forgiven if they are sweating their long positions over the weekend: not only did we just have a second, and far more solid Hindenburg Omen confirmation today, with 82 new highs, and 94 new lows, but the Saturday is the day when Iran launches its nuclear reactor, and everyone will be very jumpy regarding any piece of news out of the middle east. As for the H.O., the more validations we receive, the greater the confusion in the market, and the greater the possibility for a melt down (or up, as the case may be now that the market is unlike what it has ever been in the past). Furthermore, with implied correlation at record levels (JCJ at around 78), any potential crash will be like never before, as virtually all stocks now go up or down as one, more so than ever before. And should the HFT STOP command take place, the future should be very interesting indeed (at least for the primary dealers, and the Atari consoles which are unable to VWAP dump their holdings in the nano second before stuff goes bidless).


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ValueWalk

The Combination Of Loose Monetary Policy And Large Fiscal Stimulus

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Insights into the market and economic conditions from the wealth advisors and portfolio managers at Bel Air Investment Advisors, an investment firm that focuses on overseeing and managing the over $8 billion in assets for 300 high-net-worth families, individuals and foundations. They discuss President-elect Joe Biden’s fiscal stimulus plan, the loose monetary policy, coronavirus vaccine distribution, oil and copper prices and much more.

Q3 2020 hedge fund letters, confere...



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Phil's Favorites

Wall Street Fears Gary Gensler Because He Knows Too Much

Courtesy of Pam Martens

Gary Gensler

Last Tuesday, Wall Street was stewing over the Reuters report that President-Elect Joe Biden was likely to name Gary Gensler, the former Chair of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), as the new Chair of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The CFTC oversees the futures market. The SEC oversees the trading of stocks; the stock exchanges; the broker-dealers and investment banks that underwrite and trade stocks; and how all o...



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Zero Hedge

Options Positioning Collapse Sparks "Potential For High Volatility"

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

As we detailed last week, Friday's very large options expiration sparked a ~50% reduction in single stock gamma, leaving markets vulnerable to short-term volatility.

As SpotGamma warned, the  markets were entering a period with the potential for high volatility:

This creates volatility because as large options positions expired, are closed and...



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Politics

What is the 'boogaloo' and who are the rioters who stormed the Capitol? 5 essential reads

 

What is the 'boogaloo' and who are the rioters who stormed the Capitol? 5 essential reads

Rioters mass on the U.S. Capitol steps on Jan. 6. Samuel Corum/Getty Images

Courtesy of Jeff Inglis, The Conversation

In the wake of the insurrection on Jan. 6, the U.S. is bracing for the possibility of additional violent demonstrations and potential riots at the U.S. Capitol and state capitol buildings around the nation. W...



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Chart School

Why did selling SP500 volatility trades blow up?

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Many have made their fortunes selling volatility premium and then losing it, that is because they are running down the lit fuse and not understanding that eventually the strategy blows up.

In the chart below periods marked with A, B, C, D are periods of chasing yield which was so great the selling of option premium became vogue. Yes, this strategy worked for a while and 'this time was different' worked, until it didn't.

Selling volatility work great during period gray A until the cycle ended at red A.
Selling volatility work great during period gray B until the cycle ended at red B.
Selling volatility work great during period gray C until the cycle ended at blue C.
Selling volatility work great during period gray D un...

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Biotech/COVID-19

The simple reason West Virginia leads the nation in vaccinating nursing home residents

 

The simple reason West Virginia leads the nation in vaccinating nursing home residents

By mid-January, only about a quarter of the COVID-19 vaccines distributed for U.S. nursing homes through the federal program had reached people’s arms. Paul Bersebach/MediaNews Group/Orange County Register via Getty Images

Courtesy of Tinglong Dai, Johns Hopkins University School of Nursing

The urgency of vaccinating nursing home residents is evident in the numbers. The COVID-19 pandemic has claimed the lives of mo...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Treasury Bond Yields At Make-Or-Break Decision Point Says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Treasury bond yields (and interest rates) have been falling for so long now that investors have taken it for granted.

But bond yields have been rising for the past several months and perhaps investors should pay attention, especially as we grapple with questions about inflation and the broader economy (and prospects for recovery).

Today we ask Joe Friday to deliver us the facts! Below is a long-term “monthly” chart of the 30 Year US Treasury Bond Yield.

Counter-Trend Rally In Yields Facing Strong Resistance!

As you can see, treasury bond yields have spent much of the past 25 years trading in a falling channel… but the coronavirus crash sent yields...



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Mapping The Market

The Countries With The Most COVID-19 Cases

 

The Countries With The Most COVID-19 Cases

By Martin Armstrong, Statista, Jan 12, 2021

This regularly updated infographic keeps track of the countries with the most confirmed Covid-19 cases. The United States is still at the top of the list, with a total now exceeding the 22 million mark, according to Johns Hopkins University figures. The total global figure is now over 85 million, while there have been more than 1.9 million deaths.

You will find more infographics at ...



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Digital Currencies

Bitcoin: why the price has exploded - and where it goes from here

 

Bitcoin: why the price has exploded – and where it goes from here

B is for blast-off (but also bubble). 3DJustincase

Courtesy of Andrew Urquhart, University of Reading

Bitcoin achieved a remarkable rise in 2020 in spite of many things that would normally make investors wary, including US-China tensions, Brexit and, of course, an international pandemic. From a year-low on the daily charts of US$4,748 (£3,490) in the middle of March as pandemic fears took hold, bitcoin rose to ju...



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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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Feb. 26, 1pm EST

Click HERE to join the PSW weekly webinar at 1 pm EST.

Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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