What did I tell you?It’s 1999 all over again as we post the biggest one-day gain since 2002, breaking records on the Dow and the S&P and having a really good time!
It was not a good day to be short but thank goodness we let our covers keep us in the market on Tuesday while we searched for clues on Wednesday where I postulated in the wrap-up: "We discovered that the VIX goes up when the Dow goes down, does this mean down is the wrong (volatile) direction?" Well look at the VIX today, on a day we go UP 283 points! It’s DOWN 12%.
This morning we threw out all the bad news we could find and decided to cheerfully ignore it. Mega kudos to Happy Trading, who kept us on the straight up and narrow by charting us through this week – we committed a nice chunk of our sideline cash at just the right time. This is what I say every time we cash down – it’s good to have cash because then you can buy things that are going up! I know, elementary my dear Watson and all that but people do forget to cash out sometimes…
It was a very happy 200% day for the Short-Term Virtual Portfolio as we crossed that milestone on this absolutely sensational week aided by massive gains on QQQQ & DIA calls (that were supposed to be just for protection) as well as our XOM calls (that were supposed to be just for protection) along with some very fortunate gains on our long positions. As I often say, sometimes it’s better to be lucky than smart!
You’ll hear lots of reasons for today’s rally but I think Dylan Ratigan hit it on the head this afternoon – it’s a flight from cash! It’s the same thing I said last night when I bemoaned the declining value of our currency and said: "Mega Kudos to Happy Trading for helping us to offset our rapidly declining currency with some excellent picks today." That’s what this is about; Housing isn’t working, Bonds aren’t working, working isn’t working (real wages down year over year) and commodities are slowing down… Money has to go somewhere and keeping it in US currency already cost us 11.5% this year so, much like the Chinese, we’ve just gotta play the markets!
And boy, did we play today! We dumped out of our DIA puts first thing and stopped out of a ton of July puts and short calls while picking up some new calls. This left our virtual portfolio a little too net positive – so we went back into heavy mattress plays near the close, despite the strong finish, as we simply have gained way too much money not to protect it.
We made a ton of intraday picks on the member site but the pre-market picks were a very good set today that worked even if you didn’t enter with us yesterday:
- AAPL Aug $140s went no lower than $4.70 and finished at $4.95
- CTSH Aug $85s opened at $3 and closed up 50% at $4.50
- GOOG $540s came down to 13.25 (Happy’s entry point was $14.50) and finished up .60 at $15.10
- MICC Aug $100s opened at $3.90 and finished up 20% at $4.70
- QQQQ Aug $49s opened at $1.10 and rolled up 34% to $1.48.
- UTHR Aug $70s were flat at $1.25 – still playable!
We’re not overly proud of these calls as it was a real "monkey with a dart board" kind of market today but our larger set of picks did just what they were supposed to and made us money on the way up, just as they made us money on the way down on Tuesday. We are of course, still in James Bond Investing mode, switching sides at a moment’s notice and reacting without hesitation, ready to buy or kill trades at any time. Just as we went into detective mode on Wednesday and let the market show us where it was going, we need to be ready to do the same tomorrow, although I’m much more enthusiastic now than I was then as we took back our critical levels.
Oil is still a scam but it’s a scam that’s working well and my biggest mistake of the day was taking half the XOM Aug $90 calls off the table at $1.95 (up 77%) as they finished the day better than a double at $2.25 and cracked the $500Bn mark in market cap, making them worth more than the GDP of all but 16 nations on this planet . Since they were a cover they had served their purpose – offsetting losses on the put side but it’s always annoying to leave money on the table. We added several puts and our refiners did well for us but big oil went up and up in what I think is a blow-off top ahead of CFTC investigations into energy-market manipulation.
Gold broke through our $666 warning level, the 10-year note shot back up to 5.12% and the dollar made a new record low and we partied all day long – what a country!
As I mentioned before, we got stopped out of a lot of July positions and we shifted our oil and DIAs around so it was a very active day. A very good time was had by all as the site lived up to our tagline today – "Fun and Profits!" Congrats to all the members who were able to benefit from this fantastic week – we are looking forward to tomorrow and we’re hoping for some follow through to top off our best week of the year. How we play it tomorrow will be the trick as we are now much more committed to the bull side and we haven’t had a chance to test our new covers but we’ll worry about that in the morning. For tonight, let’s just party like it’s 1999!
| Description | Basis | Open | Sale Price | Sold | Gain/Loss $ | % |
| 5 OCT 75.00 CHAP CALL (ZHQJO) | $ 2,710 | 7/5 | $ 4,890 | 7/11 | $ 2,180 | 80% |
| 5 AUG 75.00 CHAP CALL (ZHQHO) | $ 4,410 | 7/5 | $ 1,990 | 7/11 | $ (2,420) | -55% |
| 5 OCT 75.00 CHAP CALL (ZHQJO) | $ 2,710 | 7/5 | $ 4,990 | 7/11 | $ 2,280 | 84% |
| 10 JUL 80.00 COF CALL (COFGP) | $ 510 | 6/7 | $ 420 | 7/11 | $ (90) | -18% |
| 10 JUL 80.00 COF CALL (COFGP) | $ 260 | 5/18 | $ 590 | 7/11 | $ 330 | 127% |
| 40 JUL 85.00 COP PUT (COPSQ) | $ 4,610 | 7/11 | $ 2,790 | 7/12 | $ (1,820) | -40% |
| 25 JUL 90.00 CVX PUT (CVXSR) | $ 2,260 | 7/11 | $ 1,240 | 7/12 | $ (1,020) | -45% |
| 50 JUL 90.00 CVX PUT (CVXSR) | $ 5,510 | 7/10 | $ 6,990 | 7/11 | $ 1,480 | 27% |
| 200 JUL 135.00 DIA PUT (DAWSE) | $ 9,010 | 7/2 | $ 31,990 | 7/12 | $ 22,980 | 255% |
| 50 AUG 137.00 DIA PUT (DAZTG) | $12,410 | 7/6 | $ 11,490 | 7/12 | $ (920) | -7% |
| 150 AUG 135.00 DIA PUT (DAWTE) | $28,510 | 7/10 | $ 23,990 | 7/12 | $ (4,520) | -16% |
| 150 AUG 138.00 DIA CALL (DAZHH) | $ 760 | 6/8 | $ 29,240 | 7/12 | $ 28,480 | 3747% |
| 50 AUG 137.00 DIA PUT (DAZTG) | $12,410 | 7/6 | $ 15,490 | 7/11 | $ 3,080 | 25% |
| 10 JUL 75.00 EOG PUT (EOGSO) | $ 1,710 | 7/12 | $ 2,090 | 7/12 | $ 380 | 22% |
| 50 SEP 37.50 GE CALL (GEIS) | $ 5,760 | 5/18 | $ 6,490 | 7/12 | $ 730 | 13% |
| 5 JUL 540.00 GOOG CALL (GOPGX) | $ 6,885 | 7/10 | $ 7,050 | 7/12 | $ 165 | 2% |
| 15 JUL 45.00 HPQ CALL (HPQGI) | $ 1,735 | 7/9 | $ 1,415 | 7/12 | $ (320) | -18% |
| 40 JUL 25.00 INTC CALL (INQGE) | $ 2,010 | 6/15 | $ 1,990 | 7/12 | $ (20) | -1% |
| 50 JUL 25.00 INTC CALL (INQGE) | $ 2,910 | 7/6 | $ 2,740 | 7/12 | $ (170) | -6% |
| 100 JUL 30.00 MSFT CALL (MSQGK) | $ 4,210 | 7/10 | $ 4,190 | 7/12 | $ (20) | -1% |
| 10 JUL 30.00 MSFT CALL (MSQGK) | $ 430 | 6/21 | $ 790 | 7/12 | $ 360 | 84% |
| 25 JUL 45.00 NVDA CALL (UVAGI) | $ 1,510 | 7/9 | $ 4,240 | 7/12 | $ 2,730 | 181% |
| 8 JUL 80.00 NYX CALL (NYXGP) | $ 1,450 | 7/10 | $ 1,190 | 7/11 | $ (260) | -18% |
| 20 AUG 60.00 PG CALL (PGHL) | $ 5,010 | 6/21 | $ 5,690 | 7/12 | $ 680 | 14% |
| 20 JUL 90.00 SU PUT (SUSR) | $ 1,810 | 7/11 | $ 990 | 7/12 | $ (820) | -45% |
| 15 JUL 95.00 SU PUT (SUSS) | $ 5,110 | 5/17 | $ 6,290 | 7/11 | $ 1,180 | 23% |
| 20 JUL 60.00 TSO PUT (TSOSL) | $ 2,510 | 7/11 | $ 3,990 | 7/12 | $ 1,480 | 59% |
| 30 JUL 60.00 TSO PUT (TSOSL) | $ 3,460 | 7/10 | $ 4,790 | 7/11 | $ 1,330 | 38% |
| 20 JUL 50.00 UNH CALL (UHBGJ) | $ 4,210 | 6/7 | $ 7,590 | 7/12 | $ 3,380 | 80% |
| 10 JUL 50.00 UNH CALL (UHBGJ) | $ 2,110 | 6/20 | $ 2,890 | 7/12 | $ 780 | 37% |
| 25 JUL 20.00 VOLV CALL (VQYGD) | $ 2,760 | 7/10 | $ 4,240 | 7/11 | $ 1,480 | 54% |
| 5 JUL 95.00 WYNN CALL (UWYGS) | $ 885 | 7/11 | $ 740 | 7/12 | $ (145) | -16% |
| 250 AUG 90.00 XOM CALL (XOMHR) | $27,510 | 7/9 | $ 48,740 | 7/12 | $ 21,230 | 77% |
