Trump’s Iran “Deal” Is a Giant Bag of Dogsh💩t
It’s not a deal. It’s a memo of understanding in advance of a surrender of the American-led world order.
By Jonathan V. Last, The Bulwark
Once Iran demonstrated the ability to control the Strait of Hormuz in the face of American force, the end state of this war was determined. At some point, America would give Iran a bunch of concessions in exchange for Iran allowing transit of the strait. Those concessions were always going to be some version of the following:
-
An end to U.S.-led sanctions against Iran.
-
Cash payments of some sort to Iran.
-
An “agreement” which, whatever it said, did not practically bind Iran on future pursuit of nuclear materials.
-
Iranian de facto management of the strait, irrespective of international law.
That was always going to be the eventual deal. The only question was the timing. How much pain would Trump be willing to absorb before he surrendered?
Now look at the situation from Trump’s perspective.
If that was always going to be the deal, then what could Trump get out of it? What sweetener could be added to make him bite the bullet?
The sweetener was never going to be substantive—the contours of Trump’s surrender were immutable. His sweetener would have to be cosmetic. The Iranians would have to give him something to get him to “yes.”
They realized that they could afford to give him optics.
Shared version:
