The Strait of Hormuz Has Been Closed for 100 Days. Why Aren’t Oil Prices Higher?
President Donald Trump says a secret mission moved 100 million barrels of oil through the blocked Strait of Hormuz. That number is impossible to verify.
Last week, President Donald Trump claimed a secret US mission had moved 100 million barrels of oil through the Strait of Hormuz while it was blockaded. The claim landed in an industry already consumed by the question of how much oil is actually getting out—and nobody, it turns out, can answer that with confidence.
“No one’s experienced this kind of disruption,” said Matt Stanley, head of market engagement at Kpler, the commodity intelligence and ship-tracking firm. The reason the numbers are so hard to pin down is what the industry calls the dark trade—vessels running without their AIS transponders on, moving at night, closer to the Omani border, sometimes with naval escort.
Summary
The article says the global oil market is facing an unprecedented situation after the Strait of Hormuz was effectively shut down for more than 100 days. President Trump claimed the U.S. secretly moved 100 million barrels of oil through the blockade, but analysts say nobody really knows how much oil is still flowing because many tankers are operating in the “dark trade” with tracking systems turned off.
Despite the disruption, oil prices have not surged because countries have relied on massive stored reserves and increased production from places like the United States, Brazil, and Canada. China alone has been drawing heavily from its stockpiles.
Analysts warn these buffers will not last forever. If the strait remains blocked into late summer or fall, supply shortages could become much more severe and prices could rise sharply.
Even if the strait reopens, the article says recovery could take months or years because energy infrastructure and shipping networks have been heavily disrupted. At the same time, a sudden return of Gulf oil could eventually push prices sharply lower if too much supply floods back into the market at once.
