Guest View
User: Pass: | become a member


Sign up today for an exclusive discount along with our 30-day GUARANTEE — Love us or leave, with your money back! Click here to become a part of our growing community and learn how to stop gambling with your investments. We will teach you to BE THE HOUSE — Not the Gambler!

Click here to see some testimonials from our members!

Worrisome Wednesday

Wow – so many things to talk about this morning!

Let’s start with GM, the WSJ says: "GM’s loss widened to $39 billion from $147 million a year earlier on a $38.6 billion noncash charge."  Those guys at GM are VERY clever.  You read this and go – "Oh, it’s a $38.6Bn accounting charge, that’s not so bad."  But if we do some complex math we can see that $39,000,000,000 in losses offset by a $38,600,000,000 accounting charge STILL LEAVES $400,000,000 in very real losses, more than double (closer to 3 times) last year’s pace.

GM earned a total of "just" $34Bn between 1996 and 2004, the last year they had a profit.  In 2005 they lost $10.5Bn and last year they lost $2Bn and prior to this quarter they had made $900M for the year but this will likely be considered a bit of a setback.  This is kind of like when the SS Poseidon was already upside down THEN the water started pouring in, THEN it caught fire and THEN things started exploding.  I think in that move about 6 people survived – GM may not be so lucky!

Equally unlucky were people betting on a dollar bounce as Cheng Siwei, the Vice Chairman of the National People’s Congress who said: "“We will favor stronger currencies over weaker ones, and will readjust accordingly.”  POW!  That had to hurt, especially coming on the exact day the dollar was at the technical resistance mark of 76.  Little did the poor dollar know it was a tag-team match and no sooner did Mr. Siwei finish than Xu Jain, a Vice Director of the Central Bank, took the podium and said: "The dollar is losing its status as the world currency."  OUCH!  That sent the dollar tumbling down to new lows, boldly going where no currency (except the Deutschmark after WWI) has gone before.

The interest-rate outlook is dragging down the dollar against major currencies such as the Euro and the Australian dollar,” said Seiichiro Muta, director of foreign exchange in Tokyo at UBS AG, the world’s second-largest currency trader. “I cannot see the bottom of the dollar depreciation yet.”   That statement was topped off by Australia’s Central Bank RAISING rates by .25 and saying more tightening may be required to curb inflation.  This sent investors flying into the Aussi dollar as a 6.75% base rate in a rising currency beats the US offer of 4.5% in a falling currency hands down.

Also in Asia (and a World away from GM), Toyota posted its second-biggest quarterly profit and raised guidance.  We got bored with our TM leaps as they couldn’t break $120 last month but it might be time to give them a fresh look as that company is firing on all cylinders.  Their earnings guidance was raised to 1.7 Trillion Yen (and don’t worry about the conversion, it will be even with the dollar soon enough!) and sales in China were up 45% with an 18% DROP in America and a 2% drop in Japan.

Speaking of Japan, that country’s index of leading economic indicators hit ZERO in September, the worst numbers in 10 years.  All 10 indicators included in the preliminary index worsened, the Cabinet Office said yesterday. The index compares the performance of data considered good indicators for gauging the course of the economy over the next five to six months.  Housing starts dropped 44% in September from the prior year. "If the housing market keeps stagnating, the performance of contractors will continue deteriorating, and consumption of housing-related products such as durable goods will also decrease," said Tetsuro Okada, senior economist at Japan Research Institute. "It’s very likely that the economic-growth rate in Japan will worsen during the October-December period, compared with that in July-September."

Wow, that sounds harsh!  Thank goodness we don’t have problems like that, right?  Keep in mind that, like our ISM numbers, above 50 is a sign of economic expansion and below 50 is a sign of a contracting economy, ZERO IS AS LOW AS IT GETS!  This is the end game of a loose Central Banking policy, played our right before our eyes since the Japanese real estate and stock bubble collapsed in the 90s.  There’s an old saying "Those that forget the lessons of history are condemned to repeat them (or get high-level positions as US policy makers)."

Europe is trading off about a point this morning, and they’ve got the GOOD currency.  Russia voted against participating in a European arms control treaty as they’re concerned that the US has exercised no control over their arms since 2001.  The vote in the Duma was 418-0 effectively telling Bush to stuff it.  Putin was gravely insulted by Bush when he sent Rice to discuss the US’s proposed missile defense system last month and wants to be recognized as an equal but this is yet another excuse for oil to go to $100.

The Euro jumped more than 1% in overnight trading to $1.4666 and is very likely to test $1.50 before this run is over unless we get some Federal intervention so expect the Fed Governors to attempt to jawbone our famous "strong dollar policy" without actually making any policy changes.  The ECB and BOE make rate decisions tomorrow, they are also under pressure to raise rates to stave off inflation but will likely stand pat rather than consign the dollar to the global basement.

Our markets are hellishly down in pre-market trading but we’ve done a great job of holding our lower levels so far and we’ll be looking for some buying opportunities at least on the bounces.  If nothing else it will be a great chance to take out some callers but let’s not be prejudiced until we see a real break out of the trading channel we’ve been discussing.  The productivity numbers were actually very good and all we need is some encouraging words from the Fed to spark another round of irrational exuberance, which we can then short into!  Such fun…

Be careful out there!

 


Do you know someone who would benefit from this information? We can send your friend a strictly confidential, one-time email telling them about this information. Your privacy and your friend's privacy is your business... no spam! Click here and tell a friend!



Comments (reverse order)


    You must be logged in to make a comment.
    You can sign up for a membership or log in

    Sign up today for an exclusive discount along with our 30-day GUARANTEE — Love us or leave, with your money back! Click here to become a part of our growing community and learn how to stop gambling with your investments. We will teach you to BE THE HOUSE — Not the Gambler!

    Click here to see some testimonials from our members!

  1. cowboy

    With oil at ridiculous levels, I have an open question about the SPR. I’m a foreigner (Brit) so I may have this totally wrong but I thought the SPR was there to be used in case of emergency situations ?. Isn’t $100 oil a real threat to the future and long term stability of the US and thus counts as such an emergency ?. If that’s the case, why Mr Bush doesn’t threaten to release some of his hoard. He probably wouldn’t even need to do it. The mere threat might be enough to cause oil traders to sell fast.

  2. MrN

    Phil: I was assigned HET on our sold puts! I have a Jan 90 put bought but this is in an IRA account which can’t trade margin & it exceeds my cash. I’ve never been assigned so this sideswiped me. Did you get assigned? Any help or suggestions?

  3. Optrader

    I love TOS this morning. If they had not been done yesterday I would have sold most of my puts in the last 1/2 hour as my stops got hit by this fake rally. Feeling very lucky about this.

  4. Courtney

    I’m a little nervous. This probably means that I’m overly bullish, and insufficiently hedged.

  5. Denver

    Morning Phil

    I had a spread on HET 10 Jan 08 90 puts long sold 7 Nov 90′s against. The short puts got assigned last night so I’m now the owner of 700 shares of Het @ 90. Unfortunately I’m also going to get a 15K margin call unless I get this cleared up. What my best option here? Sell the shares this morning.

  6. David

    I am a recent subscriber and want to thank Phil and all of the contributors to this money making enterprise.

    November productivity came in at +4.9% vs. +3.1% consensus.

    Oil inventories will be announced at 10:30. Any new trades in the oils?

  7. Anonymous

    Opt,

    I`d rather be lucky than smart

  8. parchesia

    Cowboy-Crazy brits! You’re like our older brother. We have to love you but we’re not quite sure why! What did you mean release some of Mr. Bush’s hoard? Do you mean reserves? I don’t think it matters right now. There are too many political factors (pakistan, Iran, etc.), along with large draws in inventories (which are mainly attributed to oil being so expensive to store with backwardization occurring) and you pour yet more fuel with lowering interest rates driving inflation higher and the dollar lower, that’s just how it works right now. It will end because at some point, people literally stop driving literally because they can’t afford to. Then we get back to supply/demand and things normalize but it’s one of the only “safe havens” where you can put your money for the time being. In answer to your question, yes $100 oil matters to both you and us! It’s just your currency has been appreciating instead of depreciating like ours has. That makes it much easier for you guys to afford it. However, when your economy begins to slow, I think ours will pick up and this will flip/flop but I don’t expect that until maybe March at the earliest. Keep in mind this is all just part of the cycle and how money ebb/flow works. Just make sure you do your homework and figure out where money goes next and get out of what was working and into what will work next.

  9. FILMflam

    Cowboy, President Cowboy has usurped the SPR as a mechanism for absorbing every drop of oil to force the prices higher. His father, a GREAT president in retrospect, actually faked out the oil market by saying he was going to tap the SPR after the Gulf War (I think) and sent prices lower, but never really did.

  10. cowboy

    Thanks parchesia. Unfortunately I’m over here so my currency is $. I’m now known by my family back home as the poor relative who lives in the US !.

  11. FILMflam

    Parchesia, I disagree that it doesn’t matter. It matters very much that the oil traders believe that Bush will do anything to keep demand up. If he released oil from the SPR, it would drop $15 the first day. Unless there is a limit down, then it would go limit down for 3 days.

  12. Demetrius Michael

    Surprised you never mentioned the dollar… It’s such a stupid rumor. China won’t bail, they could kills the US, but it’s in their best interest to keep America alive… No one else buys products from them… America dies, they die.

  13. size123

    Cowboy, you are still expecting it to make sense, you need to work on that.

  14. BillBigD

    Research in Motion-RIMM tgt to $180 from $120, maintain Outperform@RBCM
    Just my good morning to CAP. LOL because I know this will get him mad.

  15. MrN

    FSLR puts are toast!

  16. FILMflam

    I will be playing AAPL to the upside because it tends to keep making new highs. Anyone else got there eyes on a potential mover this morning?

    Opt, I took your advice and sold that NOK play. Glad I did. Good call. Discipline is my biggest problem.

  17. irished

    Phil
    I have some Dec CSCO call options and they report tonight. It is kind of a coin toss whether it goes higher/lower tomorrow, almost regardless of the earnings. Have any gut feeling on selling on open, wait till later in the day or tomorrow.
    Thanks.

  18. FILMflam

    FSLR reports end of day. There is still IV in those puts.

  19. KC

    CHK – Phil, I saw you closed your position already. With better than expected earnings (though still down compared to last year) and I’d call it maintaining future guidance, seems like the time to roll up my caller to Dec 40s (from 1/2 position 37.5s) against my Jan40s? Thanks.

  20. mrl14

    CDN Dollar hits new high against the USD – $1.10 :) What a run so far. At this rate we’ll hit the all time high around $2.18 set back in 1870s by summer. haha

  21. fredrang

    CROX

    Why is it that now the law firms feel they need to sue when investors are disappointed. The run in Crocs was ridiculous and now that somebody lost money they are outraged. One of the items they are investigating is “out-of-stocks” in Europe. Hello…has anyone heard of operational issues? Give me a break…I’m going to sue Whole Foods because they were out of my favorite Tofu the other day. I’m sure that will have a a major impact on earnings…I’m so outraged I’m going to call John Mackey right now.

    Roy Jacobs & Associates announces that it is investigating possible securities and other legal violations regarding the recent news on Crocs Inc. (“Crocs” or the “Company”) (CROX) where the Company’s financial outlook for the remainder of the 2007 fiscal year had greatly disappointed the market, and that inventory had swelled almost four-fold, without adequate explanation of this phenomenon. It was also reported that distribution issues caused a loss of sales in Europe and Japan. Crocs shares dropped over 34% on greatly increased trading volume, dropping from $74.75 to $41.90 currently.

  22. FILMflam

    Bailing on QQQQ puts at open. Very likely that we are pulling back to 9dma, then off again.

  23. JB

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=alGVN031e30s&refer=home

    Looks like China is lightening thier us exposure.

  24. Courtney

    I like your optimism Film. Here’s hoping . . .

  25. Optrader

    I don’t think I’ll much of my puts at the opening, just a little. Instead I will buy/add calls to the following:
    RIMM (upgraded), AAPL (technical breakout), CROX (well, you know why), WFR and JASO (as oil going to $100 plays).

  26. Optrader

    I meant I won’t “sell” many of my puts (which are DIA, Qs, BIDU, FXI, EBAY, etc..).

  27. fredrang

    Oils -

    After VLO call yesterday you never know…the drawdowns are a self-fulfilling prophecy. No incentive for refiners and others to hold inventory since it is so expensive and future prices are lower (backwardation). Hold less inventory = lower storage numbers = higher prices. At some point the spiral will break. This reminds me of when I worked for Chevron. When prices were rising the stations were instructed to keep their tanks less than half full (3 – 10,000) underground storage tanks x thousands of stations and when prices were dropping tanks were kept full. I’m not sure how they calculate what’s in storage for gas and oil but I’d bet the numbers are really distorted.

  28. Demetrius Michael

    IMA – Green.

  29. chubby

    geez…..the only green I see on my screen is the VIX.

  30. Demetrius Michael

    ADM – green.

  31. Demetrius Michael

    no i lied, IBM is green though… There’s some green, few…

  32. KC

    CHK – strike that. Going down now, but that maybe with general market.

  33. Demetrius Michael

    The market looks like it’s going higher… Just a rumor based kill.

  34. Phil

    Hey I was assigned HET too. No biggie, that cancels your putter and all you have to do is sell the shares, I’m hoping for $88, which would give me a very nice profit on the trade. If you get in trouble, you can always turn around an use your puts to put the stock to someone else at $90.

  35. Mark

    BMC baby!!! one of the stocks I noted a couple days ago (technically speaking…) let’s see if it can keep it up… literally!

  36. fredrang

    Poseidon Adventure clip – I love playing the sound track when shorting…I’m sure it will show up on Mad Money soon with Cramer in his captain’s hat shouting Mayday, mayday, mayday.

  37. dday97

    Optrader – got into the Jaso Dec. 60′s yesterday at 7.4. I believe earnings are this week Friday I believe? I’m heading to Vegas that day so I’m hoping for a run up going into.

    BIDU – will we see another 400 bounce today?

  38. FILMflam

    I am a BIG buyer of YHOO at $28.

  39. Phil

    SPR – Bush did use the SPR for an emergency. Oil was at $25 a barrel when he was elected (in a campaign that was heavily funded by oil money) and he immediately used the SPR to BUY over 250M barrels of oil at a pace of over 2M barrels a week for 2 years, causing the largest ever peacetime spike in oil. Then he declared a war, which spiked oil again and, with oil at $50 a barrel, he prematurely put up a banner that said “mission accomplished” but who knew that they could drag the thing on for 3 more years and double both the body count and the price of oil?

    TOS – they should use that as an ad. Our system outages saved investors millions!

    Notice this sell-off has no teeth either – we are so rangebound!

  40. MrN

    HET – the problem wasn’t just being assigned but the IRA account. It took a position I should have been up 2.59 on and forced me to wash it thru E*trade. I just hate being right, and then not profiting. O well it was an education and didn’t cost me anything but regret and exercise costs

  41. Demetrius Michael

    CAT – A little meow mix, and the stock rockets higher… First negative, now positive.

  42. MrN

    DM – nothing up??? Look at gold – but strangely metal stocks popped on open but are falling back fast. Probably another lesson in rule 1 for me but I was obsessing about HET!

  43. FILMflam

    Long QQQQ Nov 55′s, AAPL 195, and XLE 78 puts

  44. Demetrius Michael

    C – for all you citi buyers, look who’s showing a sign of life.

  45. Demetrius Michael

    Some retrace now… But I think we’ll hold positive… Looking across the board things look red, but if you look at the price action on most of them, they’re ticking green… Few things that are poping up are oil stocks… COP, SU, etc… and pharm, like UNH… LULU up 2% and C up .5%

  46. dday97

    DNDN – Keeps on digging a hole

    GS – ok ok, I’ll buy calls again.

  47. fredrang

    C

    Bring back John Reed

  48. Greg

    Bought some Dec & Jan QQQQ puts today instead of Nov. I feel like crapola today, maybe influencing my PUT buying decisions. Still only a fairly modest short position. Also not much long either, over 50% cash.

  49. Demetrius Michael

    MMM – looks like they want to break lower, but deep down inside, they know the consequences of selling this company. CONSEQUENCES.

  50. Phil

    Welcom David and thanks!

    CSCO – people will be shocked if they miss. I sold 2/3 $35s yesterday but I will take them out if I get a good price and risk earnings but it’s a small play for me.

    GOOG alredy positive, BIDU flirting with positive, YHOO a disaster, need to roll down again and possibly sell 1/2 $27.50s but I’d rather not.

    CHK – too dicey to call. I believe they are unhedged and gas is lower than they thought it would be. Also they cut production to boost prices and it didn’t work. I had taken them as a hurricane lottery, not because I thought they company would have a good Q, that’s why I got out at the end of last month when the storm season fizzled.

  51. Demetrius Michael

    NILE – This is the start of the retail buy. Great company, blew ests.

  52. MrN

    FSLR & DIA puts – still hold or cash for a bounce?

  53. dday97

    AAPL – the 185 caller is laughing at me again. Have the Apr/Nov 185 spread.

  54. MrN

    ccj – when they whip back up w/ metal will this be the mo. play above 50?

  55. dday97

    Bought GS calls at 218.5

  56. parchesia

    I have to listen to the traders on the floor. ALL of them are calling for a 10% correction towards 1450 SPX and 12800 Dow in the next week or so. However long you get, keep that in mind.

  57. BillBigD

    FILM- check your homework, FWLT big numbers and stock split.
    CNQ & SU- more out before inventories
    CTRP- took some off before #’s tonight. Very nice gains.

  58. Demetrius Michael

    LULU is up 3%!

    SPY will hold over 150.4

  59. FILMflam

    bbd, huh?

  60. FILMflam

    here comes a 200dma kiss for YHOO, me hopes. Right at 28

  61. Demetrius Michael

    lol the Nile options are hilarious, the stock is comming down, don’t do this to me and think it’s going higher.

  62. Demetrius Michael

    …I guess it is doing it to me.

  63. bmb

    Hm, RIMM releasing earnings day before options expiry in Dec. That should be fun.

  64. FILMflam

    An AAPL a day, kicks ass. ;) Today’s WAG high… 193.15

  65. BillBigD

    FILM-MY BAD I CONFUSED FSLR and FWLT. Too many of YOUR margaritas last night.

  66. BillBigD

    POT- running
    RIMM- took some off.

  67. Greg

    UA at support on the 3 yr weekly chart – anyone think this is a good entry point?

  68. Phil

    YHOO at $28 – I was wondering who that was Film… 8-)

    HET – that is one of those cases where it pays to assign, the stock drops hard on poor earnings and there are few buyers so you put them to someone else. I have a sell in on my puts at a premium to where I can sell the stock so if they trigger I just get out of the stock (I don’t have enough shares to sell and force the trigger).

    GS – we have to wait for noon, when they will again state they are not writing down more assets.

    FSLR/DIA puts – be careful. Although this is part of another dead dollar bounce, you have to admier the way we held up on the morning dive. I’m pretty much staying neutral as long as we stay in this range and that means selling puts and buying calls at 13,500 and buying puts and selling calls at 13,600.

  69. dday97

    Nice RIMM calls guys, up 22% on the mo trade!

  70. FILMflam

    FSLR earnings are out? Then why is my Nov 140 put worth anything. I am not saying they will go down, I am saying they still could so there is IV in the options.

  71. dday97

    Make that 28%

  72. Optrader

    Taking profits on RIMM, CROX and JASO calls. Keeping WFR. I can’t believe how resilient this market is.

  73. Mark

    Some big pension money in play today…

  74. FILMflam

    So unbelievably sad that GOOG went from 705 to 750 without me. Hari Kari sad.

  75. dday97

    Still holding RIMM and JASO with tight stops. RIMM at 5% Jaso a little less.

  76. dday97

    As trailing stops that is.

  77. Optrader

    Taking 1/2 off on AAPL calls as well.

  78. Demetrius Michael

    AAPL – Keep counting your apples LOL. Love the company, but it needs to retrace.

  79. dday97

    Phil – do you think I should bracket my AAPL Apr/Nov 185 up a peg?

    RIMM calls up 44%! wow.

  80. FILMflam

    DM, AAPL needs to retrace what? It consolidated for 2 weeks, if it is going to really correct, it needs to make a run at 195 first.

  81. FILMflam

    I think I may have to bail on all calls once GOOG hits 750. Seems like a good time for the market to sink. Especially since we are almost up at the top of the range. Again.

  82. Demetrius Michael

    Sell AAPL 230 calls – lol you only gain 1500 to wiping the lvl 2 clean.

  83. Optrader

    NOK-Film, did you see the news this morning? This is the reason why it gapped up for no reason yesterday. Crooks in Europe playing the US market.

  84. rs23

    Phil, I covered my Dec CSCO 32.5 with the Nov 32.5 @.95, now they’re about $2. Do you think I should change anything before earnings? It’s a small position but want to know what you think is the correct thing to do at this stage.

  85. Demetrius Michael

    nah consolidating doesn’t do it for me…

    Apple has great growth, but it feels expensive now…. I don’t like the nano, i used to like every single product…. It’s a sign! lol 195? haha it’s 192 now, I’m not trying to be a surgeon with the stock.. Just saying it needs to come down to pappy.

  86. FILMflam

    Opt, there are crooks in Europe, too? Is there no place to steal honest money these days? ;)

  87. Demetrius Michael

    BA – if this doesn’t retrace to 98, it’s bad news.

  88. Mark

    Up 35% on SONS 7.50 Dec calls… reports tomorrow… anybody know anything about this company? Just want to make sure my thesis is still correct (I see 8-9 in the next TM, but short term?!?!?). Things that make me go hmmm….

  89. FILMflam

    Alright DM, the new nano does suck. They are not batting 1000 anymore. I would love it to drop 20 points, too. Can’t play the options for anything but mo’ because the premiums are too high. Now, I can’t play GOOG either because it is $3 from my price target. Guess I am buying puts???

  90. FILMflam

    oil numbers now, right?

  91. fredrang

    Energy report

    Crude -.8 barrels
    Gas -.8 barrels
    Distillates +.1 barrels

    Not the bull report they wanted

  92. Phil

    UA – good Cramer stock, you just need to hold it until he makes a mention.

    Oil inventories in 15 mins. TSO needs to be shorted and SU will fall hard if there’s a build. They are expecting a 1M+ draw in crude and about a 1.6M total draw.

    AAPL – I’d roll up the caller but not the Apr as you may need to roll him back down if they fall (I know, hardly seems likely).

    Inventory -800Kb, less than expected but no big deal. Not enough to hit $100 without something else happening.

  93. KC

    CHK – thanks Phil. Ended up rolling up the Dec37.5 caller to Dec40s; still have decent downside protection.
    AAPL – this seems like a good time to roll Nov180 caller to Dec190 for 1.65 debit, or do you think it will pullback sharply between now and Friday?

  94. fredrang

    They were all hoping for another huge draw. I believe these numbers are heavily manipulated so perhaps they decided $100 oil is the max for now.

  95. Demetrius Michael

    I actually rather buy google than apple, and I don’t even like google :/

  96. KC

    AAPL – Oops, didn’t see your comment as I was typing. Guess that’s a yes to my question :-)

  97. fredrang

    Oil numbers above, were out @ 10:30. Basically neutral so who knows how they will interpret but given all the sentiment this should be bearish.

  98. FILMflam

    YHOO, I would love to take you out, show you a good time and all, but I need to see your .00′s first. You are so close.

  99. dday97

    Thanks Phil

    Stopped out of RIMM up 50%.

  100. Demetrius Michael

    fredrang – the middle east doesn’t like the alternative energies in their space… They might be properly funded for once, and that’ll be bad for the future of oil… They rather 70/brl for 10 years, than 100/brl for 3.

  101. thedraz

    Hi, Phil, all…. (still lurking in the shadows, but have had nothing to say)

    UA – Cramer DID mention them yesterday. He’s majorly down on them now because the CEO sold off a big chunk of his own shares.

  102. Demetrius Michael

    Oh yah at these prices, Oil sands can actually make money too… lol which is a big no no… Can’t have competitors, defeats the purpose of a monopoly.

  103. Optrader

    Film, there are probably more crooks in Europe than in the US :) Amazing though that the stock gapped up like this yesterday on no news at all and today they announce this major deal with Vodafone. This is why I like trading on technicals more than on fundamentals. We don’t know the story most of the time and very often the chart precedes the story anyway.

  104. fredrang

    For those interested if you don’t have the link for the weekly oil and natgas reports http://www.eia.doe.gov

    Click Petroleum on Wednesday and weekly status report that updates at 10:30 on Wed and Natgas at the same time on Thursday. It gives you very good detail and if you follow the refiners you can see the inventories by PAD area, i.e. West Coast (relevant to TSO), Gulf Coast (VLO but also the whole country) East (HES & SUN)

    Info on SPR and tons of data, jet fuel if you follow airlines, etc.

  105. Brainfill

    Phil,
    Question on rolling…
    I have Jan. 09 LEAP puts on C and have sold Dec. puts against:
    Jan 09: VRNMG (45) with cost of 6.15 and currently at 11.70
    Dec. 08: CXV (42.50) with cost of 4.35 and currently at 7.80.
    The Leaps have run up disproportionality to the short puts; so I am thinking of rolling the LEAPs down to the Jan 09 30′s or 35′s. The 35′s would cost $5.30 and give me a credit of 6.40.

    My thought process is, with the current volatile trading in the market and in bank stocks, to take out some of the profits on the LEAPS but still keep the strategy in play of selling future puts against the LEAPs. Is my thinking correct that this lower strike price (35′s vs 45) on the LEAPS will move less on stock price movement?
    Thnks

  106. dday97

    Added more to GS

  107. Phil

    CSCO – I would either take 1/4 off the table (assuming you don’t want a lot of risk) or move 1/2 up to the $35s but the market is weak again so don’t hurry into anything, who knows where this wheel will stop spinning?

    HET – that was me getting out depressing the stock but, on the bright side, it triggered my price on the puts so it all worked out!

  108. Seattle

    Cramer says “Stop Trading – Sell Under Armour” only yesterday. So by my calculations, and his typical swing patterns, it will take him all of 2 days before tells everyone to BUYBUYBUY UA again.

    He’s been touting Citibank as a BUYBUYBUY since the 50′s. I’m sure when it finally hits $30 he will tell you to SELLSELLSELL for an average loss to his viewers of $20 per share.

    Cramer, Cramer, Ra Ra Ra…. Goooooooooo Cramer!

  109. FILMflam

    Opt, my take on technicals vs. fundamentals is that the technicals are the moving averages of peoples view of the fundamentals. It ties them both together and shows why us technically inclined traders are unnecessarily bad-mouthed by the Fundies.

  110. fredrang

    DM

    You are correct, remember when they threatened to cut output if we continue with this alternative energy nonesense. What we should have done is said “shove it” and announced $2 trillion to be spent by Canada, Japan and the United States to get off foreign oil. May be naive but we have some leverage also. If there were a candidate who was serious about making America great again I’d vote for him. Let’s get our respect back…we are a great country.

    Also, we should have said to the Saudis, defend your damn oil fields on your own we’re done here. Sure it would be painful but it would be great for the bicycle and moped business.

  111. Greg

    GRO had IPo today, agriculture stock – selling off below allocation price. Anyone know anything about this co? Possible bargin?

  112. fredrang

    DM

    Now I’ll be in a gad mood the rest of the day. Didn’t anybody read those books on how to fix the oil problem? I have a really good one from 1975. We could have fixed this problem but it may be too late. Bunch of morons running our government.

  113. irished

    At 10;30 everything went down and very slowly looking steady much lower. Did we declare victory in Iraq again?? What happened?

  114. Optrader

    Today could get real ugly. Be careful out there.

  115. FILMflam

    fredrang, it is a bunch of Saudis running our government. Literally. That isn’t a joke. Wish it was.

  116. parchesia

    Fredrang-I wouldn’t say it’s a bunch of idiots running the government. They’re very smart. It’s just that they have their own interests in mind. If you were getting 20k a head for a dinner from these energy cats, wouldn’t you do what you could to make them happy?

  117. irished

    Amen Parchesia!! Both parties are guilty

  118. parchesia

    That looked like a double bottom. I wouldn’t be surprised to see us build a small rally off of that low.

  119. doubleclick

    Happy to be out of a totally inappropriately sized DIA put position with a very modest profit after that DD yesterday.

  120. Shahir

    Phil

    DD on april 32.50 calls?

  121. Shahir

    i am talking about yhoo sorry

  122. Greg

    I am a political animal, eat and breath politics, live and die for it, and am a proud card carrying menber of the “Vast Right Wing Conspiracy” – and even I am getting very disillusioned by our republican leadership and representatives in gov’t. I’m depressed (figuratively and literally).

  123. windywheel

    hey draz!

  124. fredrang

    parchesia

    I guess your definition of smart is “if you have enough power and money then screw the little guy”. I believe smart is “if you have enough power and money then you can change the world to make it better for your kids and grandkids.”

    I’ll restate “those idiots are smart enough to know how to screw the little guy and enrich themselves”. Dennis Kozlowski was a flippin genius…my hero. Who’s smarter Bill Gates & Warren Buffett curing disease around the world or Dennis K. and Ken Lay throwing orgies for their friends?

  125. Mark

    Draz!! (like “Norm!”) Been a long time slick.

  126. Demetrius Michael

    fredrang – All our arguments to switch to alternative spaces, is solely based on the price of oil… So if we do flood 2 Trillion and oil is back down to 60/brl, we’ll look pretty damn stupid.

  127. mSquare

    CTSH – Now rebounding from the depths and above $33.

  128. Demetrius Michael

    They got us by the nuts… Tea bagging them will just make them angry… I don’t want to make them angry, especially when all of our tanks, planes, cars, etc.. is ran off the damn thing….

    Ever tried running a tank off of ethanol?

  129. Optrader

    I just don’t see how we can be bullish this market ST. We have high oil, low dollar, bad real estate, not much relief expected by Fed in ST, financials in the gutter, and the leaders looking over extended and toppy. We”ve been trading in a range for a while now, but be very careful if we break down.

  130. hawk

    The entire economy is failing but AMZN will be fine! How can people be buying AMZN while selling everything else? How is AMZN going to keep a PE of >100 in this economy?

    Logically I should be shorting them, but that would be using my brain and that’s what’s killed me in the past…Maybe I should jump on the bandwagon, NASDAQ 3000! S&P 2000! DJ 20000!

  131. Craig

    Phil,

    I went with your PTR trade the other day. I’m long the Jan 195 and short the Nov 230. With PTR now down to 217, is it time to roll the 230 caller down?

  132. size123

    Missed you Draz.

  133. Demetrius Michael

    BRCM and CMCSA are getting interesting at these levels.

  134. bmb

    Does anyone else think allowing speculation on necessary commodities was a stupid idea? How can anyone believe inflation numbers if they are based on costs that are driven by speculators, and guess what Fed bases its decisions on?

  135. Phil

    13,500 is so bouncy!

    AAPL/GOOG etc.. Any stock that can go up 2% in a day (or worse, overnight) can go down 2% as well. Always consider that when you are giving up protection.

    Damn, SU dropping faster than I thought. Drawdown was in-line so I can’t imagine what it would take to make these guys happy.

    Oil sands, solar, shale – there is no earthly justification for long-term $100 oil as any of those 3 can be profitably produced for $65 and there is more of any of them than there is oil. The thing that holds them back is the lack of belief that oil will hold $65 but if they manage to fix that price long enough, they will put themselves out of buisness in 5 years.

    C – I could tell you to roll down but it would be to a position I do not believe in as I’m fairly sure that’s it for C. I would roll my caller to a March $40 put at $7 and buy the Jun $35 for $5.40.

    Your current spread is $4 and this gives you a $5 advantage over your caller who is covering $7 of $12 of your value. Meanwhile you can sell the Dec $37.50s for $1.10 and you won’t care which way this stock goes and you’re very likely to end up with $10+.

    You could also just drop both to a 2x Jun/Jan $37.50 puts where his premium pretty much fully covers yours in the first month.

    CVX – rolling down is a very good idea there, lock in the profit.

  136. bmb

    I’d love to short SU, but i got burned several times before. That’s a riduculous price for it.

  137. sanjith

    Rolling down on earlier PTR trade. Buy Jan 220 for 23, sell Nov 210 for 14.

  138. fredrang

    DM

    Don’t make them angry, that’s a fat one. What do you think our foreign policy has done to date? Also, if you believe in the planet then the price of oil is only of short term relevance. At some point we will need alternate energy sources regardless of the price of oil. I’d rather not wait until it’s 95 degrees in Boston during January and a few hundred million people in Bangladesh need a place to live. Oh that’s right…we don’t care about those poor people…sorry for having a conscience.

  139. Demetrius Michael

    Phil – What do you think about TXN?

  140. Phil

    AXP $60 calls settlement! XXX

  141. Greg

    DM – BRCM and lots of stocks seem to be approaching or testing longer term support. Question is whether that presents a buying op or is more a sign of internal weakness in broader markets that are being held up by a few very extended and toppy leaders. I am resisting temptation to buy stocks (call options) just because they are at significant support levels. Lots of stocks declining despite a few high fliers holding up index levels – this is a bad sign, added to all the other fundamentally bad economic data.

  142. Phil

    Oops, they have $57.50s, those are good too at $1.45. From the $60s, if you can get them for .40 you really want to be 1/2 out at .60 with a tight stop.

  143. parchesia

    I would like to be the first to say that I think global warming is the biggest crock of sh*t i’ve ever heard. It’s a political agenda. Not to say that i’m for pollution, which I most certainly am not. This is again all part of a cycle of which was repeated back in the 70′s and then forgotten about shortly thereafter, when conveniently, oil prices collapsed and the first and foremost reason why I refuse to get wound up on drama. Because it will be forgotten in the near future, 2-4 years.

  144. KC

    PCLN – BillBigD, I’m sure you’re still in (before earnings manana). Finally making it’s anticipated run. Waiting to see if I can sell 1/2 Nov90s for $8+.

  145. Phil

    CNBC said AXP settled a $2Bn lawsiut but I see no confirmation so the premise may be false, let’s be careful…

  146. parchesia

    The markets are tough to call right now. We aren’t pushing through the lows but aren’t making any real highs to build off of. Be careful!

  147. Greg

    I read somehwere (don’t remember source) that there is more potential oil in shale just in USA then all known reserves in middle east. Anyone know if true?

  148. Daniel

    Here are the puts I’ve been holding for maybe a week. March/Aprils. I know I’m betting against the winter rally, but hey, I can always sell. All but one are doing well for me, especially WHR, WM, and CBRL. MTH is the exception. It’s showing amazing strength for a housing stock. What, is the worst over in California?
    MBI
    WM
    MTH
    RYL
    WHR
    CBRL
    JOSB

  149. Anza

    dday in @ 216.5 w GS. Looking for the golden egg

  150. fredrang

    FSLR

    Calls added all the way up to$220 strike price for November. Crazy

  151. dday97

    Anza

    GS – I’ve been buying the Dec 220′s as we go here.

  152. dday97

    fredrang

    I think FSLR reports today…but yes, the options are going nuts over there.

  153. BillBigD

    KC- yes I am long on PCLN but looking at some BEARCALLS way out of the money before manana.

  154. Phil

    The big differnce between technicals and fundamentals is technicians have nice little pictures to point to while fundamentals are generally like essay questions on a test. There are no quick and easy answers but that’s what everyone seems to want. AXP here is a good example, they are on my buy list, which is based on tons of research and I’m waiting for a trigger. They’ve held $56 several times already and made very nice gaps each time so I’m willing to jump in on a rumor (and recommend it) as I have many good reasons for buying them.

    Oh, here’s something:

    Visa has tentatively agreed to pay American Express a record $2.25 billion to settle a three-year-old antitrust case, CNBC has learned.

    The payment, which still needs to be approved by Visa’s members, is being described as the largest antitrust settlement in U.S. history.

    American Express American Express CoAXP
    57.05 -1.52 -2.6% NYSE

    Quote | Chart | News | Profile | Add to Watchlist
    [AXP 57.05 -1.52 (-2.6%) ] filed an antitrust suit against Visa and MasterCard three years ago, claiming that American Express had been shut out of offering credit cards through banks that were Visa or MasterCard members.

    MasterCard MasterCard IncMA
    197.73 -1.67 -0.84% NYSE

    Quote | Chart | News | Profile | Add to Watchlist
    [MA 197.73 -1.67 (-0.84%) ] hasn’t settled the suit and apparently will take the case to court. If it loses, it faces triple damages.

    One reason why Visa settled is that the Justice Department weighed in against both Visa and MasterCard and found that they engaged in anticompetitive practices. Also, Visa is preparing for an initial public offering soon.

    Visa plans to pay half of the $2.25 billion now and the other half over four years. The deal has been approved by Visa’s general counsel.

    The settlement could be announced in coming days and is a big victory for famed antitrust lawyer David Boies.

  155. Demetrius Michael

    fredrang – lol it is a short term relevance, but are you suggesting that we have enough development in the alternative space to live oil free?

    You cut OPEC you cut 1/3 of oil going into the US, and you raise the price of oil to stupid levels. Because in-sitsu production from the sands is too damn expensive to maintain, especially with rising nat gas prices.

    But assuming that we can get it out of the ground for cheap. We don’t know how much is actually there… We have estimates, but estimates aren’t something to based a country on.

    Think about it, it’s a trillion dollar gamble. It’s nice to

    I think the risk is the equivalent of taking a cash advance on your Amex card, and betting that you’ll make more than 30% y/y (it’s actually 34.5% because it’s compounded monthly).

    Realistically, the middle east need America alive, so they won’t jack prices to 200/brl… They’ll move oil to a point where they can bleed us most with out dieing. That’s the big picture for me.

  156. fredrang

    I’d like to be the first today that I fully support global warming…the warmer the better…I hate the cold weather. My agenda is to maximize profits in beachwear, surfboards and today I’m introducing my new line of genuine polar bear skin coats, handbags and cell phone cases…sold only at Coach.

  157. Seattle

    BYE BYE RETIREMENT DREAMS – The safety of Bond Funds not what you think…

    The bad news is only slowly trickling in, a few billion in write downs at a time. The next wave I predict is when all these people close to retirement age look at their 401k statements and notice how their “SAFE” Bond Funds took a huge hit because those Fidelity and other “Safe” funds were heavily invested in those “Safe Financial Companies”. I just checked a few Fidelity prospectus’s and their most conservative bond or hybrid (solid dividend companies) funds are weighted over 20-25% or more in financials. Also of note was that they list the generic “Other” as 30-35%. I won’t be surprised to see these safe funds take a huge hit in the 4th quarter.

  158. dday97

    jeez, maybe i’ll sell some of those FSLR naked….looking at the 210′s right now.

  159. Optrader

    AMZN-Anyone knows why it is up today? I don’t have puts right now, but it looks like a good entry just below the 50MA and 20MA at $89. But I can’t find any news.

  160. Mark

    Alright, putting my price target on BMC of 45… made money ST, now going long…

  161. Anza

    I’m in a mo play on GS

  162. Loonie

    LDK just jumps over $3

  163. fotoaddict

    NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Visa will pay American Express Co. (AXP) $2.25 billion to settle an antitrust case filed four years ago, CNBC reported Wednesday.

  164. rcha

    PHIL,
    I have couple hours during the day to watch the market . Hence cannot daytrade. Want to play only the options with either 3-6 month Time or LEAPS. Could I get into most of your LTP positions that you are in after Sept OR Oct, 2007.

    Also, please advise on rolling this:
    Long VMW Dec 110
    Short Nov 125

    Or get out as its just heading down for the last week.

  165. lolobear

    Phil, where did you get that newsbite for axp??

  166. MrN

    AXP so which strike/price?

  167. chubby

    cnbc is the only source I can see for this AXP settlement

  168. Demetrius Michael

    AXP – It’s a great company, rich person’s credit card! But technicals and fundamentals are my left and right hands! No sense being a dollar and 10 weeks early on the trade — on a 30 dollar, 11 week movement.

  169. Mark

    Optrader – there’s an interesting article about Amazon offering “customer video reviews” that “enable customers to use video to share their opinions and demonstrate the use of products on amazon.com.” Sounds kind of like cnet.com for the masses. Also, OSTK was reiterated a sell at Stifel… otherwise a whole lotta nothing right now (programs?… looks technically interesting)

  170. MrN

    Took off 3/4 on HMY May’s @ 11.64 starting to feel like CDE yesterday (I wasn’t exactly right about them but I’m more comfortable with cash in my pocket – funny how that is, huh?)

  171. bmb

    Hm BSC back at/below its previous lows. Would you recommend Leaps on this Phil or just stay away from financials for a while?

  172. BillBigD

    AXP – It’s a great company, rich person’s credit card! LOL. I got my first one because they were givig away a frisbee at UMASS. Over 20 years ago!!!!

  173. Optrader

    Thanks, Mark. I saw that news, don’t think it’s very significant. I guess it’s just the leaders still holding.

  174. fredrang

    dday

    I’m thinking about those naked calls as well. Yesterday was their largest move ever $22, most of it on a gap up with the press release and 4 analysts reiterating a buy. I guess it could gap on earnings after the bell today, but $40 move by expiry?

  175. parchesia

    I love hedges!

  176. Demetrius Michael

    I’m buying NILE, if it holds over 80, I’ll be very pleased with it.

  177. Phil

    AXP – offering to DD at $1.10, no takers…

    Frankly I’m very surprised this isn’t sending them higher fast. The settlement is bigger than the biggest damages ever awarded, AXP “only” earns $3.5Bn a year and this also opens up markets to them as Visa (and soon MA) will be forced to level the playing field. Then there’s the MA half of the suit, should settle for another $2.5Bn as MA would be nuts to roll the dice in court while AXP would be nuts to take less than that now that they got it from Visa.

    Now this is a really good example because the stock is being held down for technical reasons even though the fundamentals have clearly changed. I will roll to Dec if this doesn’t pay off by tomorrow but $57.50 is not that far away.

    Don’t forget CSCO – can we still get a tech rally tomorrow?

    YHOO – I rolled to the $30s, not DD, better to sell with.

    The problem with the vast right-wing conspiracy is they give the cards out to everyone but they never actually let you into the meetings where they figure out how to screw “them” over. As long as you have the card you keep thinking you are not one of “them” but, in reality, you are one of us!

    Gosh Fred, so you can be remembered as Caligula or Davinci and you choose the guy who led Rome to ruin?

  178. Daniel

    Question.
    APH. Beautiful chart, up all year, the only problem is maybe a gap to fill. Analysts seem to like it. Message board is all positive. So why have insiders sold 95% of their shares in the last six months ( http://finance.yahoo.com/q/it?s=APH ), $18.5 million in the last two or three weeks? Many insider accounts have been closed out ( http://www.secform4.com/insider-trading/820313.htm ). Yeah, I know what Peter Lynch says, but if this was in good shape, why so many sales when this should be high season for them? Institutions have sold a bunch as well. I mean, I’ve heard of taking profits, but this seems extreme.

    Yes, I should get a life.

  179. Shahir

    What does it mean to Roll? Right now i have yhoo april 32.50′s how would i “roll that”

  180. RankXerox

    FSLR earnings play : long nov 175C 2/1 nov 165 P (holding DEC 180 C too lets say to cover or if run up today just lock to profits) after earnings convert to credit spreads either Calls or PUts .. what do you think ?? it hasnt to go very much one or other side

  181. FILMflam

    parchesia, sorry to be the bearer of bad news. Global warming is real. And it WILL be the cause of the next great depression, just like the dust bowls of the 30′s. The minute the oceans rise one inch “unexpectedly” the world’s stock markets are DONE. Just remember that.

    I mean, you are totally wrong, but I am sure you are a nice guy, and I would hate to see you lose too much money because the people you listen to are lying to you.

  182. BillBigD

    PCLN- KC sold some Nov 110 for $1.10 against longs

  183. parchesia

    DM-could you take a look at NAT for me? I’ve been short for a while. How much downside is left?

  184. parchesia

    I don’t listen to anyone but myself. We may head for a depression but global warming won’t be the reason. High oil prices may cause it. Don’t worry for me, if the financial markets collapse, we’re all screwed! Money won’t matter and we should all go buy things to hunt our food! LOL, it’s still the biggest crock. They did this back in the 70′s! We’re all going to run out of oil, oh God! LOL

  185. jomama

    UNH, just woke up! Any news?

  186. Phil

    AMZN – be careful. High gas and depressed consumers = record web shopping this year.

    PTR – I’m in the Jan/Nov $220s, that caller is still $9 so he stays, I’m only down .50 so all is well there. I would roll those $230s down to the $220s.

    There has always been commodity speculation, whether sanctioned or not.

    SU – I’m happy with the short spreads on them, let someone else pay the premium.

  187. MrN

    PKD – I reenter this as stock and have a decent profit. Instead of just selling should I sell ITM calls expecting to get called away? If it drops below 7.5 by x, resell lower calls?

  188. Jedda62

    YHOO

    Phil, I’m covered with the Nov 30′s now 0.45. Would you recommend rolling my covers to the Nov 27.5′s @ $1.43 (no premium) or Dec 30′s @ $1.32 OR just bail because YHOO screwed up big time and will pay dearly for it?

    tnx – Brian

  189. MrN

    HXL – Phil you talk about “pinning” is it possible that $25 is the top here til X? I didn’t ever buy back my nov 25 calls & so far, I’m glad. Just wondering when it’s time.

  190. Shahir

    Anybody like a qcom short before earnings??

  191. FILMflam

    We are not going to run out of oil, EVER. We are going to run out of arable land while everyone spends 10 years trying to figure out what grows in their new and exciting climate. And just to be clear. It is INDISPUTABLE that the world is warming. You could only argue that it is not humankind’s fault that the CO2 levels are breaking out to 750,000 year old highs. I love that argument. It’s like debating gravity’s influence on planets.

    Personally, I am going to be buying land in Chile’s Region X in the next 2 years. Can’t go wrong there. And I could hunt for food. ;)

  192. Demetrius Michael

    parchesia – Sweet call on NAT. Should’ve posted it up on PSW! I don’t see much downside further on it, would take some profit…but it is free falling.

  193. Optrader

    FXI-Dropping hard.

  194. Demetrius Michael

    NAT – Bought two vessels for 90M each on it’s line of credit. Posted a 4 cent / shr loss.

  195. Phil

    TXN – love them, always good to buy on sale but go long.

    Global warming – even assuming it is not the result of our 200-year long rape of the environment is that actually a reason not to do what we can to prevent what may be an extinction event? I’m sure if they cave men knew the ice age was coming they would have made preparations rather than have 3/4 of their population wiped out.

    Oil shale – supposedly 2 Trillion barrels or more (we use 35Bn a year so maybe 70 years worth of global use).

    Oops, there go lower levels, getting ugly now. Finally ISRG is coming down a bit!

  196. MrN

    The GRO IPO is not growing!?!? It’s the end of the world as we know it – even agriculture is working backwards!!!! It’s global waning!!!!
    Do I sound like Al Gore yet?

  197. Phil

    Watch GOOG, they are still the straw that will break the market’s back if they go down.

    I can’t belive how low YRCW is, that’s a big sign of US prospects.

    SPWR falling, FSLR may be next.

    COVER, CASH, COVER, CASH!!!

  198. KC

    PCLN – I was holding out for $8 on the Nov90s. Actually I just took profits (on my small position), as the run was over, and the 90s weren’t close to $8 yet. Earnings isn’t until after market close tomorrow, so I’m hoping there will time to re-enter.

  199. Optrader

    Puts-You know the drill here: take at least partial profits when/if we get to 134.40!

  200. parchesia

    Thanks DM-they fundamentally went sour! I should’ve posted it but I was already short the stock before I became a member and I don’t like getting people involved halfway through a trade.

    Flim-I suppose my argument is that we give ourselves a lot of credit for causing all of this when we weren’t here for the ice age and the time before that (dinosaurs and all that stuff) and that it’s the earth normalizing it’s own atmosphere. The crock is that we caused all this when a volcano puts out more CO2 than we did in 10 years and are getting our feathers ruffled for nothing! And now to Chile! Let’s go hunting!

  201. dday97

    fredrang

    FSLR – I’m not worried about what they’ll be at expir., because those 210′s will be about worthless come tomorrow. Pulled the trigger on those.

  202. FILMflam

    look at VMW just withering away.

  203. Demetrius Michael

    Here are some charts I drew up for yah, if it helps.

    5yr, daily ticks
    http://web.mac.com/dem_z/PSW/71107/NAT.png

    1yr, daily ticks
    http://web.mac.com/dem_z/PSW/71107/NAT2.png

    2wk, 30M ticks
    http://web.mac.com/dem_z/PSW/71107/NAT3.png

  204. Mark

    MrN – BTW, watch 30 Rock tomorrow. Al Gore cameo’s, and all things considered really does well making fun of himself. A commercial had him quickly running off because, “I hear a whale crying” or some such… greatness.

  205. Brian

    If we had the “dust bowls of the 30′s” today we would be calling it global warming. But that event occurred before there was global warming, at least global warming that is man-made. So perhaps we have had gradual warming over the last several decades that is normal for this planet. In fact, global temperatures have been warming slightly for several decades and the surface of the world is a little bit warmer than it was in the 1930s even though temperatures dropped between 1940 and 1975. The man-made argument is a tactic that libs like to use to instill fear in the public. Very much like what the libs say about George Bush, that he likes to use 9/11 and the war on to play on the fears of the people. But if you believe in the man-made argument then take comfort in knowing that right wing, conservative Christian, Pat Robertson believes it too. But what is really important is how can we make some money off all this fear? Solar power, buy,buy,buy!

  206. fredrang

    I always find that if I only listen to myself then I’m always right.

    Isn’t it more interesting to be able to listen to opinions (even those you disagree with), research and test those ideas rather than just believe them and then affirm or change your opinions based on your findings. Also, I don’t recall that there was a global warming scare in the 70′s, there was an oil scare and maybe it would have been true if not for technological innovation. I’ll bet the cavemen thought they might run out of wood to burn and then they invented the saw.

  207. Demetrius Michael

    One cow’s manure is the equivalent to a year of car emissions. I think LA was having a problem with that.

  208. FILMflam

    Parchesia, I can’t post the chart because I can’t find it, but trust me that I am not lying when I say that there is a 150,000 year cycle that causes ice ages and such. It repeats very regularly until about 200 years ago. We currently have higher CO2 concentrations than all of the previous peaks (which were all at the same level). That correlates to much higher temperatures and much higher ocean levels. There is just a lag. We are living in the lag. Much like AXP.

    I hold absolutely no hope that we will take the necessary steps to reverse the CO2 levels. I just keep partying on in my natural gas civic in the carpool lane and making sure I make enough money off this cabal of assholes ruining our country to protect my family when it does.

    Speaking of asses, YHOO almost to $28. Bounce or plunge.

  209. Demetrius Michael

    fredrang – Actually I think there was a global cooling scare a couple decades ago.

  210. ci69fc

    Phil,

    I dont know if you remmember back in a day, i think it was May, you were looking to buy YRCW at 40.

    I wrote how I own a Trucking company and that things are not good.

    I am still in bussiness but things are still really bad.
    What I did I shorted YRCW back then to hedge. I was gonna buy back when things pick up for me. I am still short and glad I did that.

  211. MrN

    Caveman – “grant me one false assumption…” Hmmm. Might want to check out the biological and archeological premise of the assumptions of that whole argument!

  212. Demetrius Michael

    Global Cooling – http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_cooling

    C02 Temperature – http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/c2/Vostok-ice-core-petit.png

    “Graph of CO2 (Green graph), temperature (Blue graph), and dust concentration (Red graph) measured from the Vostok, Antarctica ice core as reported by Petit et al., 1999. Higher dust levels are believed to be caused by cold, dry periods.”

    As you can tell with the chart, we’re well in reasonable deviation… You can statistically prove that Global warming exists.

  213. parchesia

    DM-thanks for those charts! I’m not quite the technical guru you are! I’m saving them and going over them after this crazy day slows down.

    I always listen to opinions, I just don’t hold much weight to them unless you’ve proven yourself to me but I always consider them. Film, that’s where hippies came from. Free love and green peace. All those crazy radicals. It all stemmed from high oil, corporate rules and when everyone finally got sick of it. Of course, that’s like arguing the cause for the depression and black monday. There’s always another opinion.

  214. Demetrius Michael

    You *can’t* statistically prove that Global warming exists.

  215. Demetrius Michael

    I think the main guy who started green peace said it’s bullshit.

  216. FILMflam

    The dust bowl was caused by no crop rotation and the stripping of trees to create farming land that then allowed the wind to tear across the fields unabated. And we had MASSIVE pollution from the 1850′s on or whenever the industrial revolution began. Or course there was a natural warming/cooling cycle. But, we have been on a solid uptrend since 1910 with only a small pullback after WWII ended.

  217. Demetrius Michael

    and he left it because of it.

  218. MrN

    DM – Cow flatulence!!! You are a genius!!! That is why gro, mon, de, adm & ag. is tanking. The cows have sided with Gore (no pun of gore – either the horns or the other end)!! :)

  219. Phil

    Rolled AXP to Dec for $1.60

    LTP – any ’09/’10 play is still valid but pick one we haven’t made too much money in. VMW – you should at least roll him down a few, his calls are worthless and not protecting you at all. Why not roll yourself down to the $105s and sell the $110s to pay for it?

    AXP – was mailed to me. I get a ton of rumor mail, usually ignore it.

    Wow, look at BXP and VNO fly down – we know that’s a bad sign!

    VLO tanking too, TSO still not facing up to reality. SU hanging tough.

    BSC – I like them as long as you’re selling against them. Naked is crazy but I love rolling down until we have to buy out our caller and then we can let it go back up.

    Rolling is just trading one position for another, ie. sell the one you have and immediately buy the next. Some option platforms have a roll function, which is very useful.

    FSLR – I do have a prejudice against stocks that have to justify a double at earnings but the 2/1 play makes sense.

    I think we bottom here, it will be fairly bullish if we hold it again but, with the weak dollar, this weekend will be spent analyzing all the warts of our economy so the trick will be making it through there.

    Gold breaking down, stopping out of those too, may reenter later but nothing is safe in this market!

  220. FILMflam

    We should just move onto talking about religion and politics. :)

  221. parchesia

    I love the arguments on both sides kids! It’s so nice to have access to people who can think! I hope you guys realize how rare that is.

  222. mrl14

    Activision has announced that sales of Guitar Hero III topped $115 million during the first seven days of sales. Guitar Hero III is popular? Who knew? It’s those sleeper hits that take you by surprise.

  223. sanjith

    Phil,

    PTR – I’m in the Jan/Nov $220s, that caller is still $9 so he stays, I’m only down .50 so all is well there. I would roll those $230s down to the $220s.

    I thought you were in Jan 240′s. No?

  224. Demetrius Michael

    Flim, don’t you think on a billion year planet, a 100 years of pollution can’t affect it? It’s like predicting SPY’s movement based on a minute tick chart.

  225. BillBigD

    CIEN- acting tough for CSCO #’s

  226. FILMflam

    “I love the arguments on both sides kids! It’s so nice to have access to people who can think! I hope you guys realize how rare that is.”

    Gets more rare with every child left behind.

  227. parchesia

    I won’t get in on an education debate. There’s too much action today to start thinking on that at the moment. I have the feeling we probably share somewhat similar views.

  228. FILMflam

    DM, I just look at the charts. I have never seen anyone challenge the science from MANY disciplines that shows the historical CO2 levels and temperatures. The charts are breaking out to ATH’s. We have broken the ice age cycle. We are the only thing that is different.

    The conspiracy theorist in me thinks that global warming has to be an economic or military advantage to us, otherwise the powers that be would do something about it. We are the only country that denies it is happening. Which is silly since we are the most _____________ (please find something positive to put here) country in the world.

  229. Anonymous

    briefly, recent scientific study has revealed, that means proven, that global warming exists….one can think what they would like ( i.e. up until a couple of years ago, XOM would pay $10K per paper to the author of any study that would refute the global warming theory), however, the biggest effect will not come from atmospheric CO2, but the higher concentrations of CO2 in the air will be “forced ” to be dissolved into the oceans…once the oceanic temps change past a critical threshold…then we’ll be in for some serious problems.

  230. MrN

    Film – “talk religion and politics” those, in that order, are the real reasons behind everything you see; including the markets!
    PKD, as an aside, I’m selling calls. This is part of the cow stuff we were talking about. These earnings don’t justify 8.5% move – do they?

    Third-quarter net reached 20 cents a share from 17 cents a year earlier as revenue rose 17% to $172.2 million. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial were looking for earnings of 22 cents a share.

  231. FILMflam

    You are right Parch. Looks like the market will breakdown before our communication does.

  232. Mark

    FLIM, parchesia – agree, love the discussions… but we DO NOT need to touch religion. People can have great arguments for politics et al, but wars are started with religion (literally). ;)

  233. chubby

    not anonymous…that was me

  234. Phil

    YHOO – there’s no reason not to cover, just set a reasonable stop in case it turns up. I still see no new issues here, just a lot of YHOO bashing on a massive scale. Go back to last thanksgiving and check out the “Apple is doomed” discussions that went on for weeks as Apple fell from $92 to $80 and Reinharden and I had to repeat every single day that we still liked them and we were still buying them. We know how that story ends.

    HXL – tough to break a major level in this environment, once we get into next week there should be major pin action.

    Region X – I prefer Vermont, it’s already cold there so no one will notice a change. I also have a place in Tahoe, you can’t beat nice, fresh water (not to mention a defendable mountain pass!). Actually I’m not a survivalist, just a skier but I sure do meet a lot of survivalists up there.

    FXI – how is BIDU keeping it together?

    Markets not keeping it together, turning very ugly! GOOG went red!!

  235. FILMflam

    feathering into YHOO Nov 27.50 calls, pouncing if it breaks above 28.30

  236. ozzi997

    dow down 200. does it go any lower, or do we see a late day rally???

  237. FILMflam

    Definitely won’t touch religion.

    Tahoe is heavenly. Pun intended.

  238. Phil

    YRCW – I remmeber that coversation, thanks for talking us out of it. I’m getting really concerned here as we are failing all sorts of levels. If the Nas breaks 2,775 we are probably a long way from recovery.

    Now is the time to take a chance on GS. Taking the Dec $220s for $14.60, no stop, I will sell current $220s if I can get $10 or the $210s if they fall to $10. XXX

  239. FILMflam

    Man, what would have happened to AXP if they had lost that lawsuit.

  240. MrN

    “Don’t discuss religion b/c it starts wars” – better apply that to money and women too then. Now what do we do with this site???? Sorry – I quit, promise! I really do appreciate all you guys. I’m just enjoying this little drop w/ so few regrets (other than maybe leaving a few of the metal positions – but they’re just hedges, right?)

  241. dday97

    If you like Tahoe come up to Glacier Park in Montana someday (live a short drive away). Also some fantastic skiing in the Flathead valley just west of the park.

  242. Optrader

    Puts-Sold most of them for HUGE profits. 134.53 on DIA-54 on Qs is good enough for me, as there are so many people watching these levels. Will re-enter if we break below.

  243. Greg

    Whether global warming is real or not, the only way we will find solutions is to allow smart and inventive people to profit from the solutions they discover and develop. Government, the F***ing useless UN, and especially liberal acedamia, will never solve global warming by taxing and regulating to death those very people and industries that will come up with the answers. The answer is not to stop industrial production and progress, make everyone ride a bike or the disgusting public bus system, use one sheet of toilet paper, but to let capitalism work. Look at what an idiotic nightmare subsidizing ethanol has become.

  244. dday97

    GS – been adding more and more. Cost avg. on the dec.220 is 15.5

  245. ali

    Shahir,

    rolling in this case would mean you sell your April 32.50′s and buy the April 30′s so that would cost you about .80. Then you could hold them naked if u r bullish and expect a bounce soon and then sell the Nov 30 calls or if u want to stay protected u could sell the Nov 27.5 or 30′s but I think the 30′s are a better sell.

  246. BillBigD

    Sports? Girls? I am willing to talk both

  247. Optrader

    BIDU-I think it is holding because of GOOG. I don’t think it will last long though.

  248. FILMflam

    Optrader, moving down my stops, but feels like a good time for a plunge.

  249. parchesia

    Look at Rimm and BA hold! That’s about all the strength I can see right now.

  250. FILMflam

    yeah BBD, lets talk women’s sports. Did you catch that Sparks game? Wow, what dribbling.

  251. Courtney

    BA! Save us please.

  252. ali

    anyone like GROW? CEO said on briefing that business is doing well and the market is being irrational. I think people r selling them off because they r associating them as another financial when they r really a financial who invests in metals/oils (we know that is doing well) and has no subprime exposure. I think it looks worth a shot above 19 but if it breaks below it could fall alot so i would say maybe keep tight stops.

  253. likewoods

    CX at $27.28 starting to look at it

  254. FILMflam

    Fully into my YHOO position. Hope that is good news for you already there.

  255. Optrader

    Film, we could be dropping, but take a look at the 15 min charts. There is MAJOR support at these levels, so a bounce could be possible. Just keep very tight stops on your puts. You must have huge profits on them right now, no need to be greedy. And you can always go back in if it goes lower. I can tell you that if we break below these levels, we will go much lower, so there will be plenty of time to get in.
    I am just being careful here as it happened so many times lately that we bounce out of nowhere.

  256. biodieselchris

    reasonable people still ‘deny’ global warming?

    I’m sorry but you don’t have to much of scientist to see the evidence and make simple conclusions. Unfortunately I am a scientist, and in seeing the evidence it is outright frightening. Back in the 1970′s (when it was called the greenhouse effect), there was dubious outcome scenarios that could be challenged. All of the predicitions of those early days of climatology of have come true at the very least, and many cases the outcomes are MUCH WORSE.

    In the 1990′s the vernacular was ‘maybe’ we’ll see such and such by 2070, which is hazy and far away, and it was possible to take some comfort in that, but the modern day vernacular is much worse. Nowadays every new report says the same thing ‘It’s happening, and it’s worse than we thought.’ This acceleration is undoubtedly the result of a runaway ‘feedback’ effect and it is pretty clear to me, unfortunately, there really isn’t anything we can do anymore. But that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t try.

    As for the political aspect, well, whenever it’s ‘your’ party it’s all about hard issues and the other party is all about political agenda. For example, when I was first becoming somewhat interested in politics during the Clinton impeachment, I watched a guy who got a BJ get attacked by rabid-eyed zealots, “values voters” who all turned out to be pedophiles and closet cases anyways, try to convince well-meaning and reasonable people that his impeachment was due to an actionable criminal offense (??? I mean seriously, I still don’t get it – and don’t even start with the whole ‘lie’ thing)

    But I digress, the current “administration’s” Denial Theory (R) is the most odious and insidious corruption on top a pretty odious and insidious pile of corruptions. Talk of economy this and economy that blah blah blah: ATTENTION MORONS – THE ECONOMY IS A WHOLLY OWNED SUBSIDIARY OF THE ENVIRONMENT. If Wall Street was covered by 5500′ of ice, like it was when cavemen were lighting their first fires, you probably wouldn’t have a stock market there. Or anywhere, since you can’t grow food and feed people, who then in turn work with each other and have an ‘economy.’

    The conservative agenda is always ‘what’s in it for me?’ Well if you’re wealthy enough, say an average American or better off, Hannity and Limbaugh are probably right. You’ll be OK with some potential inconveniences, looking at maybe swatting flies later in the year and paying a little more for food. But if your on the bottom, say 70% of the global wealth scale, you could be in big trouble: mass migrations, wars over arable land and water resources (like GA, FL and MS, hahaha it’s already started).

  257. Optrader

    OK, I joined everyone on the YHOO calls.

  258. Mark

    Ali – GROW. Have made so much money off of them, and really fun to play. BTW, they trade LOTS of options… everything from equities to timber to oil, etc…

  259. windywheel

    POT is at an all time high :) , up 3 points today!
    the nov. 125 calls are 3.5 with POT at 124.73
    wondering if there’s a good spread with it against jan or mar?

  260. Phil

    Reasonable deviation – mankind cannot survive on that deviation. How ridiculous to even consider taking a chance with somethign like that! If there is anything in our power that can do ANYTHING to lessen that effect, whether we caused it or not, it is a survival imperative that we do it. Why is this such a hard concept? Those are THOUSANDS of years on that graph, if I graph Google over 1,000 years it’s still at it’s within deviation of its IPO price so why buy that dog? We are approaching the highest levels ever recorded of CO2 and the growth is accellerating (hard to tell on a 1,000 year chart).

    Guitar Hero – actually someone on this site said it would be a big hit a few weeks ago. That’s amazing, more money than a movie makes.

    PTR – Puts or calls? I was talking calls. I also had the Dec/Nov $240 put spread but the put side stopped out and I’ll be killing the uncovered Decembers later. Oops, the $25KP one? I forgot about those! It’s the same deal there’s a $3 roll to the $230s so we absolutely take that bt the caller can be taken out at $2.50 and we’ll hopefully sell the $230s on a good bounce. XXX for $25KP

  261. parchesia

    Ali-Grow looks to be in a slight bear trend nearing the bottom techincal support. If you won’t to give it a shot on the bounce, look $18-$19 as entry with tight stops because if it blows through that, something fundamentally went wrong. Keep in mind, I don’t know a thing about them:)

  262. troy

    Yeah – so I have had nothign to say on trading, I’m still new at it, but I couldn’t resist throwing my two cents in on the global warming issue. It’s amazing to me that a very small but very vocal group of so-called skeptics (many of which work for the energy industry either directly or indirectly) can weigh in so heavily on the global warming debate and play off of the public’s ignorances. This isn’t a conspiracy by earth worshippers to stir up panic while jumping out on a big huge scientific limb trying to convince the world that our climate is changing at an unprecedented rate. The science is real, and the overwhelming consensus is unquestionable to the fact that we are indeed warming the planet. There is a very strong case by looking at the carbon content of ice cores which show a historic record going back 40 millenia. The carbon is building. The ice caps are melting. The heat capacity of the oceans is over 1,000 times what it is of the atmosphere. You can’t measure global warming by looking at ambient air temperature. What’s laregly in question isn’t whether or not the planet is warming, but what future weather events will look like, and what affect it will have on plant and animal life.

  263. Optrader

    YHOO-It’s at the 200MA right here.

  264. parchesia

    These are strong support levels but if we break below them, we’re going to make huge drops to 12,800Dow and 1450 spx and I think we’re due a good solid correction.

  265. Phil

    1Bn year planet – that argument is like saying that a 50-year old man can’t die in 5 days after being exposed to a virus that desroys his liver because it’s too small a tick to count.

    Every child left behind – ROFL Film!

    SU puts are smokin’ now!

  266. fredrang

    Curb Your Enthusiasm

    Why so many people hate the show… It deals with all those issues, Global Warming, Religion, Race, Politics, Sex and Bald People (the most discriminated group that is not a protected minority). Everybody is offended at some point.

    If we could get all of those crazy radicals to watch the show then everybody would get along better.

  267. Optrader

    Sold remaining puts. We are at support now (1490 on SPY). Let’s see.

  268. Optrader

    Parchesia, I agree with you. if we break from here, it could be real ugly. Like 400 points.

  269. Mark

    I’m probably completely wrong on this, b/c I do like YHOO, but technically it still looks like it should fall a little more (24-26 level). IMHO…

  270. parchesia

    I only believe we aren’t going to bounce this time because I heard too many on the floor say we’re headed lower and they ultimately are doing all the buying and selling. I’m looking towards next week as hitting those lows as this should just be a much needed correction.

  271. Optrader

    This is NOT a break yet. This was just taking all the stops. Now we are back above 134. let’s see if it is a real bounce or a last kiss goodbye to this line.

  272. FILMflam

    parchesia, where are you that you have ears on the floor?

  273. dday97

    I’m going to lunch, everything looks ugly right now. Including you global warming conspirists :)

  274. JB

    Banks face $100 billion of writedowns on level 3 rule, RBS says – Bloomberg.com

    Bloomberg.com reports that U.S. banks and brokers face as much as $100 billion of writedowns because of Level 3 accounting rules, in addition to the losses caused by the subprime credit slump, according to Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc. The Financial Accounting Standards Board’s rule 157 will make it harder for companies to avoid putting market prices on securities considered hardest to value, known as Level 3 assets, Royal Bank’s Chief Credit Strategist Bob Janjuah in London wrote in a note today. The new rule is effective Nov. 15, he said. “This credit crisis, when all is out, will see $250 billion to $500 billion of losses,” London-based Janjuah said. “The heat is on and it is inevitable that more players will have to revalue at least a decent portion” of assets they currently value using “mark-to-make believe.” Morgan Stanley has the equivalent of 251 percent of its equity in Level 3 assets, according to Janjuah. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. has 185 percent, Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. has 159 percent and Citigroup Inc. has 105 percent, Janjuah wrote. Merrill Lynch & Co., which wrote down $8.4 billion of subprime mortgage debt and related securities, has Level 3 assets equal to 38 percent of its equity “and may well come out of all of this in the best health,” Janjuah said. Under FASB terminology, Level 1 means mark-to-market, where an asset’s worth is based on a real price. Level 2 is mark-to- model, an estimate based on observable inputs and used when there aren’t any quoted prices available. Level 3 values are based on “unobservable” inputs reflecting companies’ “own assumptions” about the way assets would be priced.

  275. Greg

    fredrang – I love “Curb your Enthusiasm” remember the scene in the restaurant where the chef starts cussing and then everyone else does too? ROFLMAO

  276. Phil

    Subsidizing ethanol was done by this useless administration and the same congress that stopped the last administration from taxing gasoline to cut consumption. There is such a thing as good government policy, but first you have to elect good government.

    -275! Nas broke, pary may be over. I wish I had shorted more but I’m thrilled to be even and moving to cash righ now (not that cash is a good place to be since it’s in dollars!).

    Oil DOWN $1.50, gold dropping fast. Trading curbs are in and Bernanke speaks tomorrow…

    GROW would be nice with a bigger sale.

  277. FILMflam

    volume on these down bars getting BIG.

  278. Optrader

    Got back into puts on the retest. Tight stop on 15 min chart.

  279. windywheel

    with calendar spreads i LOVE days like this!

  280. doubleclick

    Wow do I regret selling those puts this morning just to get out a smidge above even on a position that was massively negative yesterday. I felt bearish, but I really didn’t belong in that position… but… argh!

  281. parchesia

    I think we’re bouncing off of this low. At least in Q’s. But i’m still holding my bearish bias of the lows I mentioned earlier hitting them somepoint next week or late this week.

  282. FILMflam

    GOOG and AAPL, no help. Bought some C Dec 37.50′s because they only have 100% of their assets in level 3. hahaha

  283. fredrang

    Greg

    I have all five seasons. My personal favorites: Running Bear helps cure Cheryl’s “problem” & episode when Richard Lewis’ Joe DiMaggio baseball disappears.

    My wife hates the show and it just drives her crazy that I point out how much more enlightened I am.

  284. Optrader

    Let’s see if 1490 is now resistance.

  285. FILMflam

    Not buying this bounce, pressing the AAPL puts. Could go back up to 134.50 on DIA before continuing down.

  286. tesorohaters

    Phil-

    I have the FSLR Jun 150/Nov 165 spread. Any recommended changes going into earnings this afternoon? Maybe roll the Jun 150 up?

  287. parchesia

    Here we go, watch these lows. If we don’t make new ones, we’re getting a solid bounce. Keep your stops tight!

  288. BillBigD

    OIL-useless administration and the same congress that stopped the last administration from taxing gasoline to cut consumption. Why do we need to cut? Isn’t there plenty of it, and this price is a scam. I for one wouldn’t like paying 80% taxes on Gas

  289. Greg

    Optrader: I bought Nov QQQQ 54′s 20 calls and 20 puts. Will sell the calls if we break below 53.78 or sell the puts if we break about 54.02.

  290. fredrang

    FNM

    I think a big piece of this selloff relates to Cuomo’s subpoenas today. Just another reason to hate financials.

  291. Mr_Sparkle

    Phil,
    Where can you find out if trading curbs are in? They never seem to post it anywhere I can find easily. But you always seem to know.

  292. Scott

    Phil,

    The AXP’s for DEC seem to have a lot of premium in them. Still a good buy at these levels?

  293. Phil

    Dylan saying that Cuomo (NY AGeneral)’s investigation I was saying was a big deal the other day is actually a big deal as the probe widens to include the other (very guilty) financials. See, sometimes my little rants are important! 8-)

    Big volume bars are good, I think we’re finding a level we can at least rest at.

    Calendar spreads – it’s better than you think because your caller are still benefiting from an expanded VIX (back at 25) and when that falls, that will be the other shoe for Nov and Dec contracts.

    Here comes GS. BSC may have found a bottom, pathetic though it may be at $96

    13,400 makes sense. 1,470 is our must hold on S&P with 1,505 in the comfort zone, Nasdaq is still good over 2,750, that would be the critical failure but the SOX are death and the Russell is no help so the drag is very much down. If something doesn’t turn us up tomorrow, we may blow through 13,300 and test 13,000 before the week is over.

    Meanwhile, we may as well guess this is a bottom since DIA Dec $134 calls are just $4.28 and we can sell Nov $134s for $2, that’s a great spread but you have to stop out 25% of the Novembers every .25 up. XXX

  294. Optrader

    Been buying more puts on this bounce. But will get out fast if we retake our levels. I am not giving anything back today :)

  295. FILMflam

    This is a VERY BAD place for the DIA’s to consolidate. Unless you are in puts, I mean.

  296. Optrader

    Greg, I like your strategy, but why not just stay in cash and buy calls above 54.02 and puts below 53.75? less comissions and spillage.

  297. parchesia

    Greg-Good Call! Run with those calls and then DD on the puts for another run later.

  298. Anza

    Phil- anyone grmn bottom at $90?! looking attractive

  299. biodieselchris

    I’m all for a gas tax, since I don’t buy any of it.

  300. Seattle

    GSK – Phil, any chance you will be looking to add it to the LTP soon at these levels?

  301. Seattle

    BMY has been an amazing MONTHLY CASH GENERATING MACHINE on that 30/30 calendar spread! How long can this party last of it creeping to $30 just in time for me to sell calls, and then being rejected back to 28-29… Thank you Phil!

  302. Optrader

    OK, looks like we held our new resistance levels (134.40 and 34). Anyone still does not believe in technical analysis after looking at these charts?

  303. Greg

    Opt: I did it because I bought the 20 puts and then immediately regreted it, so instead of selling right away I bought the calls and hoped I could make my indecision work for me one way or the other.

  304. fotoaddict

    Anyone with Leaps on C – Very cheap roll down’s right now. Jan10 45->35 for

  305. marathonman

    Phil the other day you mentioned a trade with “C” that was risk free at about a 15% return. Today the stock is at 34.37 and the Jan 09 50 Put is 16 total cost 50.37 I have a 50K that I need to get 15-20% return on for the next 12-15 months how best to execute this today? x shares y options look to sell these puts look to sell these calls and a quick explanation about how this is all risk free. I want 100% understanding and could use your expertise on this

    Thanks Don

  306. Greg

    BDC – just because you don’t buy gas doesn’t mean a gas tax increase won’t cost you too, because everything else you buy will be more expensive as a result.

  307. JPL

    Phil/BBD

    AIG – Bear call spread 60/65′s – your thoughts? Thanks

  308. fotoaddict

    does look like the editor can handle a “less than” symbol..

    that last one should end with ” Jan10 45->35 for less than $3 ”

    Jared – The text editor for the comments should replace the less than symbol with an “ampersand + lt + semicolon”.. unless you’re trying to allow html in these comments.. -Peter

  309. FILMflam

    bought C ’09 45′s two days ago, down 20%. Will double at “next” bottom. LOL

  310. Phil

    Curb – I loved the first season or two and then I got bored with it. I take it it’s worth watching again?

    FSLR – I would stay put, it would take quite a catastrophe for you to drop $12 and your caller would immediately go worthless and you could roll him to Dec whatevers and stay safe. You could also just buy the $140 puts for $1.50 as it would take that kind of drop to even begin to touch you but you have plenty of time to adjust.

    80% tax on gasoline? You wish you were paying an 80% tax on gasoline! A barrel of oil is up over 200% since 1991 and not one penny of that money does anything to solve the problem. Gore proposed a 7 cent a gallon gas tax which would have put $11Bn a year into alternate energy research starting in 1994 and the Republics had “studies” that showed that adding .07 to the .80 per gallon gas prices would bankrupt the country. Probably studies by the same guys who prove there is no global warming…

    Instead we now sent over $1Tn a year to Iran, Venezuala, Russia and a dozen other countries that want us dead. Don’t get me started, it’s very sickening!

    Trading curbs – CNBC announces when they’re in.

    AXPs – yes but hoping to make up some of that premium with a Nov sell if we ever get a bounce.

    GRMN – this is no place to go bottom fishing. Just keep it on a watch list for when the market turns up but we broke the wrong end of the range today, at least make sure we get back to 13,500.

    GSK – lots of things to add if we get a nice bottom (that’s what we wait for). LTP still up.

    Speaking of longs – IMCL doing very well the last couple of days. Still just .40 over our entry on the Jan $40s ($5.90).

    HMY is still a gift at this price. It’s worth spending .60 to roll the Jan $10s to the May $10s XXX for $10KP and $25KP.

  311. Demetrius Michael

    “The charts are breaking out to ATH’s. We have broken the ice age cycle.” – Everything is within statistical reason. 5% error is what statisticians use when making blind predictions…. Can you prove to me that we’re not in statistical reason? I understand about the industrial age and the crop cycles and such, it’s shitty, but we can’t prove it’s more than a mere coincidence.

    “that argument is like saying that a 50-year old man can’t die in 5 days after being exposed to a virus that desroys his liver because it’s too small a tick to count.” – Hah true, but can you make someone bleed to death, with a needle puncture? Can you say grass was originally blue without the creation of animals? I’m sure we could list examples on both sides of the fence. But I challenge anyone to find me data that proves, beyond a reasonable doubt, that we’re in serious trouble with global warming.

    HIV – It takes atleast a decade before HIV / AIDs really hurts your body… Relatively, 10 years is a big part of your 100 year life….. But since we’re on the topic of statistics, lets talk about sex.

    You can say unprotected sex is dangerous. “You look to your left, you look to your right, and 1 of you has HIV.” Interesting stat, no? Kinda bullshit. but that’s basically what the media says about sex, and it’s similar with global warming.

    Prevalence of HIV in US is about 1/1000 – /10,000… Getting HIV by having sex with an partner /w HIV is the same odds at about 1/1000 – /10,000.

    Assuming worst case you have 1/1000*1/1000 odds of receiving HIV the first time you rail a random chick, in a random area, in the US…. That’s 1/1,000,000.

    Meaning, if you sleep with a random girl, in a random area, every single time of your sexual life (assuming 40 years of sexual activity @ 360 days in a year)… Then your probability of being HIV free is 98.6%.

    How did I get that number?
    40 more years, 360 days of the year. That’s 14,400 days.. Giving the equation = (999,999/1,000,000)^14,400 = 98.6%

    You actually have better odds that 99% if you’re straight, because HIV tends to localize with the homosexual populous.

  312. Demetrius Michael

    If it didn’t hurt so much to look at the computer, I would have less grammatical errors. I apologize for those, but my eyes kill. The strain is unreal

  313. FILMflam

    DM, are you denying global warming AND that the year has 365 days. THAT IS A BOLD STATEMENT.

  314. parchesia

    1/2 out of Q calls. Too much uncertainty.

  315. size123

    I don’t understand why people fight the idea of global warming so violently. If we make preparations for it, and we are wrong, what have we lost but some money, and the planet will likely be better off for our actions anyway.

  316. Beat

    I think DM’s point is that some days of the year he’d forget to buy viagra and wouldn’t be able to perform…hahaha…

    Brutal day

  317. mrl14

    Phil – That was me on the Guitar Hero play with Activision :)

  318. FILMflam

    And as for the proof. It’s there. And since I stopped out of my puts, I am not in the mood to find them for you. It is all there. It is not a statistical anomaly. Your Canadian goose is cooked, even if it is 20% more expensive. Good news for your oil deposits though. And your fresh water. Seriously, I think it is the Canadians causing all the global warming. Think of the beach front property in the arctic alone.

  319. BillBigD

    Phil, they tax gas at 80% in England. No I do not want to pay $7.00 per gallon.
    OK my point is, you keep claiming this gas issue is a scam. I don’t know the answer but if it is WHY should they place higher taxes on it.

  320. biodieselchris

    Tick tock.

    Our ‘economy’ is a loaded gun…

  321. fredrang

    TGT

    Nice rally in Target, s store sales tomorrow.

  322. richard marble

    wow retail (RTH) just turned positive …

  323. fredrang

    CROX

    Opinions? Has it bottomed, 200 day MA may be resistance but it’s held up well given the down market today on heavy volume.

  324. Beat

    Phil,
    The HMY in 25k port, there are 60 Jan and 60 Dec calls and you are rolling the Jans, those Dec are sold?

  325. Phil

    BMY – that’s exactly the kind of play we look for! When it stops behaving, we get out but it could be a long ride with those guys.

    C – absolutely at this price. Just added to $10KP. The “safe” play on C is:

    Jan ‘09 $55 puts are $20.77, Stock is $34.33, that’s $55.10 for a guaranteed $55 in Jan ‘09. ZERO risk (well, OK, .10 risk). You don’t even have to sell puts, you’ll collect $2.16 (5%) from the stock and you can sell Dec $37.50s for $1.04 and that right there X 6 would be $6.24, another 10% and C would have to jump almost 10% in 40 days for you to even have to roll the caller. So that’s 15% with virtually no risk. If you want to get fancy you can certainly get another $5 selling puts (current $32.50 puts are .52, Decembers are $1.37) for another 5%. It’s dull but maybe you get a free toaster…

    That was easy, cut and past from last time someone asked.

    GOOG positive again – we’re saved!

    DM – this isn’t a murder trial. We don’t have to prove global warming beyond a reasonable doubt the same way you shouldn’t have to prove someone shouldn’t shoot you with a gun (he might miss, the gun might not fire, you might be bullet proof). There are some things you DO NOT ignore because putting your head in the sand and brushing it off won’t make it go away and this is our only planet, there will be no second chance, even if you are rich. Again, people DO get Aids. I imagine you don’t have children because if you tell me there is a 99.8% chance my child will live, I will do everything in my power to improve those odds – and I have 2 of them! This is real and this is forever and the cost of taking action is some inconvenience to certain people (and it’s very hard to argue it’s not just generally nice to stop polluting anyway). The cost of doing nothing MIGTH BE everyhing – everything generations of mankind have hoped and dreamed for, everything you’ve struggled your whole life for, all the effort we put into the care and training of future generations wiped out so you can scoff at it during your blip in time. It’s not even a choice to me…

  326. parchesia

    All out of Q calls. Buying a few puts…

  327. doubleclick

    I’m with size123. (I also think that global warming is real.) What’s the big deal with fighting global warming? We invest in creating new technologies, we clean our air, we gain effeciencies, we reduce dependence on countries that hate us… isn’t all that worth some X cents a gallon? Like Phil said, it’s trillions of dollars that are going overseas. Think about all that money spent on gas/energy being spent instead on your local community, your children, your hobbies, whatever!

    Shoot! I missed an entry… …

  328. FILMflam

    Final thought since I have already had a good day and now need to do stuff around the house so my wife has a good day, too.

    It makes my blood boil when I hear Republicans (and it is always Republicans) like Kudlow talking about how we can’t do something “Because it will hurt the economy.” They use the same argument when times are good and when times are bad. When is the right time in their minds to take their medicine for all their partying, never.

    And it is all because our politicians allow everything in our economy to boom and bust. There is no planning, only panicking and bad policies at the bottom and payoffs at the top. I have long since given up on our country. It is only going to get better after it gets worse. So, at least we are on the right track.

    I very much appreciate the debates though as I don’t get any of that in my daily routine. Good luck to everyone on the rest of their day and I hope YHOO climbs from here and makes me look like a patient genius.

  329. likewoods

    BRK-b hit $4500 thats over $500 up in about two weeks

  330. fotoaddict

    BBD – The gas tax would ideally be a tax on an overly cheap commodity (back when gas was $1 per gallon) to funnel money into more environmentally friendly causes like public transit and alternative energy (and no, not corn based ethanol).

    It’s a use based tax which does hurt the lower income brackets more than the upper ones, but it’s one of the only ways proven to reduce use.

    If you compare the US to Europe.. Their many years of more expensively taxed gas has helped them build transit systems which put us to shame. Their roads are better quality as well (increases MPG..) And they consider MPG much more than we do with our SUVs when making the initial purchases..

    All in, we in the US are pretty wasteful. We got used to overly cheap gas, corn, and a few other commodities for the better part of our lives. Because of that, we’re now fatter, lazy, greedy, and dependent on those we borderline hate for our “survival”.. That’s why.

  331. biodieselchris

    I heard a funny joke this morning:

    How many hippies does it take to screw in a light bulb?

    ——————————————————-

    None: hippies screw in dirty sleeping bags.

    (then I was like, how many married men does it take to screw in a light bulb? None: married men don’t have sex anymore, and she thought that was funny too….)

  332. MrN

    AUY reports AC tonight. Have 09 15′s naked: Hold, sell or cover?
    HMY – Now you tell me. Interesting I sold 3/4 @ 11.64 we drop to 11.25 and the May options stay flat. VIX or no one else selling? I just couldn’t stand to see 200% returns riding out a dip.

  333. Phil

    HMY – not filling yet but rolling my calls, not the caller!

    Gas scam. The point is that if we had alternatives they couldn’t hold us hostage with oil. I thought you guys were against Americans being held hostage?

    That’s a good link BDC!

    CROX held up nicely last 2 days.

  334. parchesia

    Like I said before, my argument is not against the validity of global warming. We have to do something about the pollution in China. I’m an athlete and we can’t even race there next year without the possibility of doing our bodies damage from the pollution! My argument was with how much we as humans are responsible for it as opposed to this being part of how the earth works, which have very little understanding, as the earth’s been here a while and we haven’t. We absolutely must do something about pollution and that goes all the way down to McDonald’s, fast food and how we eat. What we fuel ourselves with crap that’s probably responsible for 1/2 of all cancer and pollution is probably responsible for the other 1/2 of cancers. Our bodies CAN’T deal with how we screw up ourselves for the sake of convenience.

  335. biodieselchris

    if our federal gov’t won’t even recognize the problem how can we start working on real solutions.

    too bad we have children in control of what used to be the greatest democracy on earth (well, federal republic anyway).

    I wouldn’t hire bush to empty garbage cans at my company.

  336. Phil

    Poole says maybe December rate cut – yeah that’ll fix things!

  337. Demetrius Michael

    “I don’t understand why people fight the idea of global warming so violently. If we make preparations for it, and we are wrong, what have we lost but some money, and the planet will likely be better off for our actions anyway.”

    Absolutely, I’m not saying to go against global warming, I think it’s great saving the planet.

    There’s so much data out there, that it is possible to prove every single side, of every single argument.

    I think at the end of the day we have to figure out what’s ethical, and just go with it.

    Killing the planet is unethical, therefore don’t do it.
    Killing people is unethical, therefore don’t do that either.

    You’ll live a lot easier life if you follow simple rules and guidelines… But to say serial killers are hurting our population, is the equivalent of saying cars are killing our environment. You may be right, but it’s just hard argument with our given data.

  338. biodieselchris

    parchesia – I couldn’t agree more!

    now if BIDU and GOOG don’t start going down I might need Medicare soon…

  339. fredrang

    FSLR

    Dumping begins before earnings @ 4:30.

  340. biodieselchris

    fredang – you in FSLR puts?

  341. Optrader

    Back in Q puts 54.13. Stop at 54.2.

  342. Demetrius Michael

    YAY RATE CUT.

    lol 360 days of the year, Banker’s rules. I didn’t make it, you guys did lol… Us Canadians use 365 days in the year. But the viagra point is a good argument too.

  343. parchesia

    Phil-As I don’t quite yet have the pull that you do. Is there any way you could throw a thesis that will be read about how the effect of the amount of dollars put in circulation by the Fed cutting would affect the economy of the U.S. vs how the world will begin looking at our currency? The dollar falling as drastically as it is tells me that there are TOO MANY DOLLARS!

  344. dday97

    Wow back from lunch and the only thing that changed is my aapl caller is finally losing his money.

  345. fredrang

    Okay, so let me get this thesis straight:

    1. There is no proof that man is responsible for global warming.
    2. Fast food is responsible for 50% of cancer.
    3. Pollution is resonsbile for the other 50% of cancer.

    I don’t disagree that 2 & 3 are bad for you but it’s interesting that you react so violently to the idea that we are responsible for global warming but the fact that you can’t run your race in China…now that’s worthy of outrage and those french fries are evil (the french fries were responsible for my littering the highway with beer cans, they controlled my mind, I’m not guilty). Is that logical? No seriously, seems kind of absurd.

  346. Demetrius Michael

    parchesia – I think the dollar fell recently due the rumor, it’s strengthing back up.

    it hit 9053 about 12 hours ago, and now is 9212… Against the CAD

  347. biodieselchris

    It seems the same people making the argument against global warming and it’s connection to human activity are the same people telling me the world is 6000 years old.

    I mean, you have Ph.D. evangelical scientists publishing ‘proof’ of their theories. There is always some guy, or some paper out there you can find to make your argument (just go to the drudgereport daily and you’ll see what I mean). These people are vehemently anti-science, all 100% personal agenda, and their ‘work’ should be treated accordingly.

  348. parchesia

    If anyone wants a great long term play. Buy MTW, great great company, although I would wait until the correction is over as they should be cheaper, a week or two….I own the stock and am waiting to sell puts.

  349. Paul Rosengrant

    Do you recommend getting back into YHOO at any point? Sitting on longs at 50%+loss.

  350. Phil

    Well guys, I’ve got to go. It’s my 9th anniversary today!

    Take care of the markets for me. I’m still liking gold, ESPECIALLY with another rate cut.

    Have a good day all.

  351. k1

    Just noticed GE below 40 again. I kinda like them as a long-term thing. Anyone have a feeling for how far down to look for an entry point?

    BTW, that comment on BRK-B is interesting. It’s like a bond, nice and safe. I keep thinking about buying another share or two, but it’s been going up crazy-like.

  352. fredrang

    FSLR

    I sold naked calls for premium so hoping for not much movement or down. I do like solar just think the short term they are overvalued.

  353. biodieselchris

    my thinking is, parchesia did not qualify for the marathon last Saturday so I think he’ll be OK…

  354. Optrader

    Q puts-1/2 out at 53.88.

  355. Legh

    Phil,

    What did you think when Hillary said, ” I want to take those profits”? When Exxon reported last month?

  356. Newbie

    Any recommendations on playing the FSLR earning?

  357. fredrang

    Retail

    Guess somebody decided that same store sales would be good tomorrow or is the group just way oversold. My only exposure is Target and I sold naked puts so hoping this was a bottom for November.

  358. dday97

    Have a nice anniversery Phil and Mrs. Phil! See you later on Philsgreenworld.com

  359. BillBigD

    JBL-60/65 to risky for me, Take $300 on the 65/70 IMO
    Foot-transit systems in Europe are much better.
    OIL-Isn’t it the Dem’s that will notlet companies drill in Alaska, off FLA etc.

  360. Mark

    Phil – how do you like this quote? :)

    Neal Dingmann, senior vice president
    of Dahlman Rose & Co., comments on oil prices.

    On oil inventories:
    “The market cares about inventories. We have only 2.9
    million barrels of spare capacity. If you look five years ago,
    we had over 5 million barrels of spare capacity. Back then, one
    storm wasn’t that crucial. Today, one storm could take off a
    million barrels, or if something happens in Iran, it could wipe
    out all our spare capacity.”

    On the role of speculation in oil prices:
    “I think there is some speculative aspect to it. I think
    it is small. There are enough fundamentals supporting the price,
    including demand here and internationally. Inventory levels are
    down 7 percent year over year. Still, we are 1 percent above the
    five-year average for oil inventories.’

  361. FILMflam

    Wow C! Really? No seriously, really? Could it be THAT bad?

  362. fredrang

    FSLR

    The way I played them is to sell way out of the money naked calls but very risky. You could still sell a Nov $200 for $1.25. This could well be one of those where it gaps down and then goes up $10 tomorrow or gap up and then down $10 tomorrow. It’s going to be all about the call @ 4:30. I’d say too risky if you aren’t already in.

  363. parchesia

    Fred-I’m watching too many things to respond to that. It’s not absurd. I just think a volcano (1 natural act) does more than we as humans do in 10 years to the earth, not to our bodies. I don’t run…I ride a bike.

  364. Newbie

    Thanks, fredrang. I’ll probably stay out of it.

  365. Jedda62

    BMY – Ditto .. it’s outstanding monthy revenue. Hope it lasts until ’10. With all this talk of global warming, starting to get doubts (kidding .. I think)

  366. Greg

    Happy Anniversary Phil & Tina!

    Cheers to you both!

  367. Demetrius Michael

    This conversation reminds me of Captain Planet.
    http://youtube.com/watch?v=4LET3nCX8x0

    Do you know what’s really crazy, Ozone, why isn’t anyone talking about that? Now that’s a real problem if we mess that up.

  368. Demetrius Michael

    HAPPY Anniversary!!

  369. parchesia

    Watch this level! If we don’t breakout, we could be headed seriously lower….! Happy Anniversary Phil!

  370. Optrader

    CSCO-Can they save the market, or at least the techs?

  371. Optrader

    Happy anniversary, Phil!

  372. Demetrius Michael

    Sold BA, I’m bored with it.

  373. FILMflam

    DM, you are really on it in a not at all kind of way.

    The ozone layer actually repaired itself after we stopped putting CFC’s into the air. Funny huh. If it is one thing that crazy hippies know, it’s chemistry.

  374. joebaseballsr

    Wow, just got to check the markets………..
    Any ideas on CSCO
    Happy aniversary, Phil.

  375. biodieselchris

    took this spread: long 5 BMY 30 Jan-2010 calls, short Jan-08 and will sell down there after.

    I hope. $2.63 net entry.

  376. parchesia

    If we don’t break below 54, get out of your Q puts.

  377. windywheel

    happy anniversary phil!
    hope it’s a great one!

  378. JPL

    BBD – thanks – and when I read some of the past post’s – congrats on spwr!!

  379. parchesia

    I’m out of puts! If it goes, it has to really go and I just don’t see it happening quite yet. It’s so hard to predict the end of the day!

  380. Optrader

    GOOG red-We’re not saved.

  381. bmb

    13400 going to hold?

  382. parchesia

    Wow this is fun! We are literally just a point from either crashing or recovering!

  383. Mark

    BIG buy programs hitting market on close, this market’s going lower?

  384. ozzi997

    this market is unbelievable sometimes

  385. parchesia

    I’m out right now!

  386. ramana

    Happy Anniversary, Phil & Tina. :-)

  387. marathonman

    If you look at todays premium on the put and call side on FSLR its around 10.00 at 165 price. If you wanted to play earnings this afternoon and you did a strangle at 140Put/190Call for a current cost of 4.45 and see what the reaction is to the earnings call wouldn’t that be a fairly safe way to play earnings and if thet are in line your cost is today’s premium loss?

  388. doubleclick

    Wow. We need to rally strong… but I just don’t see it happening. Too uncertain to do anything overnight.

  389. Greg

    I don’t want to jinx it but if the QQQQs can finally close below my daily support line today, I may be ready to commit more to puts. Let’s see a good break below that support line today.

  390. parchesia

    Greg-don’t commit more capital to buying more puts at the day lows! If you don’t want them overnight as protection, take half off the table for a profit and see what happens into the close.

  391. Greg

    Parchesia – I already sold my Nov QQQQ puts today, all of them, but still hold the Dec and Jans. Will wait until we see which way tomorrow bwfore I buy any more puts. I am being much more careful this time around. Thanks for your advice, I appreciate it.

  392. parchesia

    I finally learned that when you’re making new lows, it’s time to get out and think about buying, depending on what you expect the markets to do. Me, i’m waiting this one out. I have my “investments” covered but that’s all i’m doing, except for the day trading you saw earlier. Wow, this place clears out when Phil leaves.

  393. FILMflam

    buying Q calls (small amount) at close. Buy GOOG. Adios AAPL.

  394. biodieselchris

    wow I didn’t look at WM today. Damn.

    if anyone is thinking calls, please tell me you timing.

    thanks

  395. k1

    parchesia- not sure the place clears out, but he’s definitely the backstop for a lot of the conversation.

    I bought my puts during the little breather mid-day, and am just watching things slide now. I put in for a couple of cheap roll-downs (YHOO and BWLD) and they both triggered a couple minutes ago, just before the selling pressure intensified.

  396. FILMflam

    chickening out on calls.

  397. k1

    So anybody noticing the FXI isn’t selling off all that hard? Is this a spot to load up for tomorrow?

  398. FILMflam

    okay, with last round of Q puts profits, I bought 30 Nov 55 calls. If we snap back it will be big.

  399. FILMflam

    And I DD on C Dec 37.50′s

  400. Optrader

    WOW !!! That turned out to be my best day of the year. Amazing gains on market puts. Hope everyone here was very careful with their calls and made money on puts.

  401. marathonman

    Guys how do you tell when program trading is active?
    Is it solely on Volume?

  402. Optrader

    The only calls I bought at close were RIMM. Still holding market puts. I don’t like to pick bottoms.

  403. Greg

    Optrader, was too careful and got whipsawed a quite bit but still made nice money today. Also still have some profitable but still OTM Dec and Jan QQQQ puts I am holding.

  404. Optrader

    FXI holding? It’s down 5%!

  405. FILMflam

    Wowsers! Glad I came back. Hope CSCO blows the doors AND THE CEILING off this market now. This time I am gone. Hope you all made out well on that.

    For what it is worth, I have been thinking about how all of these drops lately have been coming during market hours. There are not a lot of gaps up or down. This is great for us and other traders, but do you think it is indicative of anything? I believe that if we are going up it will be on some large gapping jumps. But, all things considered, the sell-offs have been orderly, but severe. Anyone else have thoughts on this?

    Check in with you later.

  406. parchesia

    It’s about damn time we got a nice market selloff! Hopefully this is the one that really scares people so we can build a nice proper floor!

  407. k1

    Optrader- that must be some recompense for your issue with ToS yesterday. Congrats!

  408. marathonman

    did anyone ever do this math before (probably yes) I found this interesting. To get a 30% return over 250 trading days you have to average a return of .0012 a day on a 10K portfolio thats a 12.00 return per day.

  409. Optrader

    Greg, I got whipsawed as well on the bounce a couple times, but I just kept going for it. The last batch of Q puts bought at $54.15 was a huge winner. Well, charts are real ugly now. Qs look very toppy on the daily, with a break below the 20MA that has been clear support for a while. I am going to keep my bearish stance for as long as I can and not try to catch bottoms. Moves always get exagerated, one way or the other, especially after we get out of a range.

  410. k1

    FXI- oh, sure enough. I was just looking at the slope of the lines, not the absolute change.

  411. Phil

    Oh what the hell guys?

    I’m checking in from the fabulous IPhone and I can’t belive what happened in an hour! Bulls should pay me never to get out of that chair…

    Wowie! Well, tomorrow is another day but if the EU banks hike pre-maket, we will see how fast the dollar can collapse. AIG earnings will be important, fear of subprime on their books.

    Dow S&P and Nas are all right on Big Chart levels, Nas a little under 2750

    Got to go, Tina’s giving me a look!

  412. Optrader

    K1, yes, in fact ironically that’s what made it such a great day for me. I would never have kept so many puts overnight on a regular day. That’s pure luck.

  413. MrN

    AUY – Wow for a sector that has been leading and earnings now, this candle says: “Somebody knows something you don’t sucker!” Wish I’d covered right when I posted the question.

  414. Greg

    Support trend line on QQQQs daily chart broken today by my rekoning. That means (to me)that the trend is no longer valid, and a trend reversal is now possible.

  415. marathonman

    Is FLSR trading at 182?

  416. Optrader

    CSCO killed AH.

  417. ozzi997

    186+

  418. MrN

    HMY popped 5%+ right after close? Somebodies jerkin things!

  419. jon

    CSCO down 4% AH after beating EPS by $0.04?

  420. k1

    Optrader- I dig that kind of irony.

  421. doubleclick

    Congrats Optrader! (And Phil!) I have to sit here thinking about how if I hadn’t sold those puts this morning I would have “earned” 1.5x my monthly paycheck… (Don’t worry folks, I like my job and I work hard here; the level of activity is cyclical though so I have time to follow with you guys some days.)

  422. ramana

    CTRP – are the earnings out ?

  423. Demetrius Michael

    Phil – LOL, tina’s awesome….

  424. BillBigD

    theflyonthewall.com: First Solar-FSLR reports Q3 EPS 58c vs. consensus of 19c
    EPS includes a one-time tax benefit of 09c and may not be comparable to consensus. FSLR reports Q3 revenue $159M vs. consensus of $120.43M.

  425. parchesia

    Bill-that’s what I call a blow out!

  426. MrN

    Phil – that’s right; it IS ALL YOUR FAULT. Everytime you leave during market hours there is a serious sell off. “Hookem and Cheatum law firm is announcing a class action suit against Phil Davis of PSW for allowing the market to collapse as he left his chair unattended… if you wish to join… blah, blah”
    O.K. take care of the family – but get back in that chair by 4:30 a.m. and tell me where to put the cash! :)

    Actually, thanks for your hard work!! I had a great day (until miners started tanking).

  427. biodieselchris

    wow FSLR at 193+

    glad I only bought 1 put. One WORTHLESS put now…

  428. marathonman

    BDC I wanted to play FSLR and had -0- idea what their earnings would be so I played it as 1P OTM and 1C OTM looking at a cost of 4.45 but the ATM calls/Puts today were both around 10 I thought that it was a good way to play something that reacts very strongly…

  429. Denis

    FSLR taking JASO up AH as well.

    They report Friday before open. Curious if JASO will have a similar positive story to tell. Thoughts?

  430. marathonman

    Don’t know about JASO if they are reacting already there may be a strangle opportunity? OTM PUT and CALL

  431. Optrader

    Tomorrow should be a big down day as well. CSCO-8% AH.

  432. QUARRYMAN

    Can you buy put options after hours?

  433. biodieselchris

    MrN I’m in on your lawsuit, hahaha – something that goes like this: “If you held MS or GS puts between the time of August and October, 2006 …”

    Optrader — I was thinking about a LEAP on MA (maybe Jan-08 165 put for 18 or so), would you take it?

  434. joosj

    Hey optrader,
    Im in a similar position as you. Yesterday TOS crashing left me with an unhealthy amount of dia daytrade puts that shouldve gotten stopped out but never did. Too bad I missed the last 100 points in the last 15 minutes today. Anyways, I had a quick question about daytrading the qqqq and dia index options. When the market is range bound like it has been the past couple of days, how do you decide when a breakout is legitimate? The EOD run ups over the past 2 weeks kept me from betting on a break down at the EOD today (..after continuously getting stopped out) and yet today, when it broke 13400 I guess it shouldve been a reentry but I was hesitant buying puts at the lows of the day. I cashed out most of my puts around 15 minutes before as it i hit 13400 and missed the last move

  435. Jason

    Things are looking bad for tomorrow…yikes…afterhours of the big boys look horrible

  436. biodieselchris

    wow CSCO got hammered. WM got hammered. Is tomorrow Black Thursday???

  437. Fan

    MS moving up much higher on subprime news. As are other financials.

  438. bargetis2

    Can anyone tell me why I have calls on 3 different gold stocks. Gold goes up all night and ends up over $10 oz today and yet all 3 options lost money. What am I misunderstanding here?

  439. size123

    Happy anniversary Mr. and Mrs. Phil.

  440. k1

    bargetis2- which gold stocks are you talking about? Are they ETFs that actually hold gold (GLD, GOLD, etc) or are they miners?

  441. marathonman

    cant buy options ah

  442. vishal

    newbie question: GOOG has been on a parabolic run from 600 to 747, so if it closes in the red for one day, why is it considered a bad thing for the Nasdaq. It cannot keep going up every day right??

  443. Beat

    Vishal,

    GOOG and AAPL have been the leaders, and every time the nasdaq turned down they rallied and pulled tech up with it…read Phil’s post from Tuesday I think, the one with the Titanic picture…money goes to the green…GOOG was green…GOOG turns red and the money starts to come out…

    That and I was short GOOG 750 calls and sweating balls …. lol

  444. vishal

    Beat thanx for the explanation. I will read Phils post again. Glad I did not play GOOG today, but got butchered on some other stuff.

  445. k1

    Jedda- checking to see if you’re on tonight. You around?

  446. jomama

    Phil, your thoughts on SNDK,I have 09 50 Leaps which are uncovered and started a postion about two weeks ago. Was waiting for a bump above 45 to sell some premium, but the sentiment for sndk seems to be quite bearish (more than the market) The whole, chip sector besides intc seems to be in the shitter. I am thinking about selling the Dec 40s’ for a defensive play to buy time, with a 20% stop. Your thoughts would be appreciated. Happy Anniversary.

  447. windywheel

    companies reporting after the close:
    AIG down 3% AH!
    CSCO down 9% AH!
    FSLR up 23.5% AH!! wow

    tomorrow will be fun.
    thanks phil, you ought to leave your chair much more often!

  448. bargetis2

    K1
    my options are on NEM, GOLD, and SA

  449. jomama

    Phil, AXP news just coming out within the last 2 to 3 hrs. I’m really surprised this hasn’t received more attention. Perhaps it has been usurped by the market!

  450. Mr_Sparkle

    Jomama,

    SNDK got a pretty negative Goldman note a couple of weeks ago. It bounced after earnings but has again resumed its downward slide. Samsung has been increasing bit production at a 120% y-o-y basis which isn’t good for ASPs. The rest of the industry is just about as bad in that regard.

    I posted up a summary a week or so ago of some cap-ex in the semiconductors and overall health. It wasn’t very pretty except for a few key players.

  451. Fabregas

    YHOO / Alibaba

    Opened at below HK$30 and bounced to above HK$34. Now $32. I think it will see $25 before $40.

  452. jomama

    Thanks Mr. Sparkle, appreciate it. Will sell Dec 40′s to break even and then reevaluate. Their product is a commodity but i do think that they have a competitive adv. with lower costs and technology (But sentiment is negative)

  453. Optrader

    Joosj, don’t be mad at yourself for missing the last 100 points, it does not really matter. We can’t guess tops and bottoms, so it is OK to miss some of the moves.
    Please read my previous messages about daytrading. I use the 15 min chart. If previous candle high is not taken, then I stay in. In the last hour 1/2 none of the previous highs were taken. Look at my post earlier when I bought the puts on Q with the 54.20 stop. From that time, there was no reason to get out, so that’s why I kept them until the end.

    Hope this helps.

  454. Ali

    CMG might be worth a look to short, looks like its ready to either break its support on its 20 day ma or if the market bounces back we could see a bounce. I think it’s grossly overvalued but it held up strong today so keep an eye on it to either break support or bounce.

    GROW looks like a good entry above the 18-19 range.

    CSCO if it continues to head lower, 28 looks like a good entry

    Continue to love SNCR on any weakness, I really think this is a play we should add to the STP or LTP.

    VMW closed below its 20 day ma for the first time, looks like the momo could be fading.

  455. Richard

    Jomama,

    On SNDK, I too have a long position that I put on about a month ago. Since then I’ve been bobbing, weaving, ducking and shucking to stay afloat in the position. Fortunately, I’ve learned how to do that on this site, so I haven’t had to take a loss. Currently I’m long various 42.50s protected by Dec42.50 callers.

    Today I added an additional layer of protection with the Jan/Nov40Ps. This seems an interesting trade in that the entry was about $2.00 with a $1.00 time premium in the Nov at the moment. Assuming the price holds, or more to the point, assuming a $1.00 decay by the end of next week, I will own the Jan40P at $2.00. At that time, my plan is to sell the Dec40P against that for $2.20 or so, and then own the Jan40 put for free. I may have to do some bobbing and weaving along the way, but at least I will have some additional downside protection on this stock, should things get really hairy over the next month or so.

    Caution – I’m a newbie, but that’s what I’m doing.

  456. joosj

    Hey Optrader, thanks for the comment. I’m not mad at myself necessarily for missing move. Like you mentioned, none of the 15min bars highs were taken out and yet I exited because too many times in the past couple of weeks I entered a position, had a good move and then had it reverse on me particularly on the EOD rallys so that most of the profits would disappear. I guess today I was scared of that happening again so took profits although in retrospect, like you at the support levels, I shouldve just lightened up by taking 1/2 off. I have nothing to complain about though; TOS’s mistake served me well, just trying to be more disciplined with my rules. I’m new to this game and all this stuff is so fascinating haha.

  457. Demetrius Michael

    Happy 222!

  458. Demetrius Michael

    I don’t know, I felt it was important.

  459. ramana

    Asia Markets : Thursday, November 8, 2007

    (The following is from WSJ; please cross check with other sources to confirm.)

    Japan*

    15771.57
    -325.11
    -2.02%

    Hong Kong*

    28760.22
    -948.71
    -3.19%

    DJ Shanghai*

    507.11
    -24.82
    -4.67%

    S.Korea*

    1979.56
    -63.63
    -3.11%

    India

    19007.88
    -281.95
    -1.46%

    Baltic Dry Index (BDI) +69 10674

    BDI Charts & Spot Rates – http://www.dryships.com/index.cfm?get=report

    * at close
    Sources: Dow Jones, Reuters

  460. ramana

    Asian Markets Tumble, South Korea Sheds 3% – http://www.cnbc.com/id/21677380
    Asian markets fell deeper in the red in the afternoon session Thursday as investors dumped financial shares on credit fears. Japan finished 2 percent lower and South Korea shed 3.1 percent.

    Financial stocks were worst hit with Citigroup’s Tokyo listing down over 5 percent. Investors were also selling out of Japan’s Marubeni Corp., South Korea’s Shinhan Financial, China’s Bank of Communications and Australia’s ANZ Banking Group. Exporters were also hammered after the dollar tumbled to a record low against the euro and a basket of major currencies overnight. A weak dollar tends to hurt the value of overseas sales for these exporters. Japan’s Sony, Honda Motor, South Korea’s Hyundai Motor and Samsung Electronics all lost more than 2 percent. Even Toyota, which posted a 2.7 percent rise in quarterly operating profit and nudged up its full-year forecasts, was not spared, falling 3 percent

    Hong Kong stocks sank nearly 4 percent after losses on Wall Street prompted investors to dump shares across the boar; the Nikkei 225 Average ell 2 percent to a two-month closing low after spreading credit fears sent Wall Street tumbling; South Korea’s KOSPI fell 3.1 percent to a two-week closing low, posting their biggest daily percentage fall in nearly three weeks, as fears over global credit markets hit banks; Australian shares fell 2.55 percent to their lowest level in six weeks, as growing worries about global credit markets dented financial stocks; China’s Shanghai Composite Index plunged nearly 3 percent as weakness in Hong Kong and other markets unsettled investors who were already jittery about monetary policy and a growing supply of new shares from public offers.

  461. ramana

    Europe Shares Fall Sharply on Credit, Inflation Fears – http://www.cnbc.com/id/21685017
    European shares fell sharply in early trade on Thursday, tracking U.S. and Asian markets, as credit fears intensified and investors added inflation to their list of worries. European shares fell sharply in early trade on Thursday, tracking U.S. and Asian markets, as credit fears intensified and investors added inflation to their list of worries.

    At 0822 GMT, the FTSEurofirst 300 index of top European shares was down 1.4 percent at 1,522.63 points from the indicated close of 1,543.55 on Wednesday, when the London Stock Exchange suffered data distribution problems and delayed its auction close.

    Banks were major losers amid general investor queasiness, with Dutch Belgian lender Fortis tumbling 5.8 percent after third quarter earnings slipped. “The bigger corporations are not showing signs of weakness in the reporting but the major fears are concentrated in two areas: the inflation threat from higher commodity prices and the fact that there’s a lack of credibility in the banks’ reports,” said Alain Bokobza, chief strategist at Societe Generale in Paris.

    Investors ploughed through a flurry of corporate results and geared up for the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England, both of which are expected to keep rates constant later in the day.

  462. ramana

    US Dollar off 3-Month Low vs. Yen, Remains Pressured – http://www.cnbc.com/id/21677381
    The dollar pulled back from a three-month low against the yen but remained pressured against other currencies on Thursday as growing fears of potential losses at financial firms from credit market turmoil hurt sentiment.

    The dollar stayed near a record low against the euro as investors awaited rate decisions later in the session by the European Central Bank and the Bank of England, both of which are expected to keep interest rates steady. Traders said the yen could gain against the dollar and high-yielding currencies on further slides in U.S. equities, which would prompt risk-averse investors to unwind carry trades in which they use the yen to buy higher-yielding currencies.

  463. ramana

    Gold close to 28-year high on dollar weakness, record price expected
    Gold rose close to a 28-year high hit yesterday as the dollar remained weak and as credit crunch jitters fuelled some investment into the metal as a safe haven. Because prices were below almost record highs, buying strengthened as the metal is widely anticipated to match and even surpass its record price. At 9.34 am, spot gold was trading at 830.50 usd an ounce, against 831.25 usd in late New York trade yesterday, having hit 845.58 usd, its peak value in almost 30 years. Gold fetched its highest ever price in January 1980 of 850 usd per ounce. The precious metal moves in the opposite direction to the dollar as gold is seen as an alternative asset and moves in line with high oil prices as investors hedge against energy-led inflation.

    Elsewhere, silver was trading at 15.04 usd an ounce against 15.28 usd in New York yesterday. Platinum was steady at 1,454 usd an ounce from 1,455 usd, having set an historic peak at 1489.50 usd yesterday. Palladium fell to 366 usd from 373 usd.

    Oil dips as rising crude stocks, weaker equities dampen sentiment
    Oil dipped in early trade as investors took profits after the US Department of Energy reported a smaller-than-expected dip in crude stocks yesterday, which helped alleviate some immediate supply fears going into winter. Weakness in Asian shares overnight and on the European equity markets this morning, after a plunge in share prices on Wall Street yesterday, is also weighing on prices, analysts said. A sharp price rise recently, largely on concerns that supply would tighten in the peak demand fourth quarter after a counter-seasonal third-quarter draw on OECD crude stocks, had raised hopes that oil would breach the 100 usd a barrel barrier, fuelling speculative buying.

    Meanwhile, New York crude for December delivery was down 53 cents at 95.84 usd per barrel, having yesterday hit an all-time high of 98.62 usd.

Dashboard

 Sector Performances (Today)

 Thermal Imaging