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The Oxen Report – Housing Data to Rule Them All

I am sorry for the lateness of my post, but I had some major computer issues all morning that were hindering my ability to post earlier. For that same reason, this post will be shorter than usual, as I will be just getting right into the meat of things.

Due to my lateness, I am able to base my picks off of the 8:30 AM economic data. Housing starts and building permits for July were released this morning, missing expectations to the lower side. Building permits came in at 0.56M, which was actually below the June levels. Housing starts came in at 0.58M, while expectations had been for 0.60M. Additionally, the PPI and Core PPI were released this morning, missing estimates. All four major economic indicators missed.

Going into that data, the market was trading futures up around 35 points at the Dow. At 8:40 AM, the futures are now at . The market definitely wants to rebound today, and I think it will start the day that way. However, with this weak economic and continued sentiment that we need a pullback. I think we will top out this morning after some rising, and then make a move back down from there.

When that happens? I don’t think we will have to wait long. If we get up 50-60 points on the Dow, profit taking will occur, but it may not take that long.

 

Buy Pick of the Day: Ultrashort Proshares Real Estate (SRS)

As of 9:45 AM, the ETF is still trading down, but it is making its move back up in pre-market trading. It is still down 1%. SRS had a pretty major jump yesterday of almost 10%, and some profit taking might be expected. However, that is where you and I will benefit. There is going to be some early downward pressure on the ETF, and it probably will open lower than expected. Yet, you can’t rally on Home Depot’s beating expectations alone when there were four missed economic indicators. The housing sector has become way too overvalued, and it is need of more correction still.

Across the board, everything is pointing down this morning. Saks’ earnings were a miss as were Solarfun Power’s. The only other good news is Target beat expectations, but that was already priced in after Wal-Mart beat expectations. I just don’t see anything to move this market. The upwards open we are seeing is just reactionary to the losses taken yesterday. I don’t think we will see the same losses as yesterday, but that is good for intraday movement because SRS won’t open 8% higher, and it can make a large swing one way or another.

The global markets did trade up, but our own economic data should outweigh the data of Germany. We don’t really have any other indicators coming out during the day, and so, I think this higher open will be very short lived.

On the charts, SRS is still undervalued on RSI, it is still oversold, and it has upward room to grow to 20 before it gets toppy. The stock has moved up a lot on fast stochastics because of its jump yesterday, but even that indicator still could move upwards.

Check back at the morning levels for closer entry and exit prices.

 

Short Sale of the Day: Hovnanian Enterprises Inc. (HOV)

Shorting any housing stock today is a good play. However, for some reason, Hovnanian is up 3% in pre-market trading. The company does not have any news coming out. The stock fell nearly 10% yesterday, but I see it playing out similar to SRS. It may rise some this morning, but it should top out and trend downwards. The housing data was simply too weak and other economic indicators, to justify any type of run up in the market.

My analysis is similar to SRS. Technically, HOV is still overvalued and overbought. The stock is above its 200 day moving average, and it should still be able to see a healthy pullback of another 20%. Today, I think it will top out around 4% before sliding back down, as the technicals are starting to show this stock is in a pullback.

Check back at morning levels for closer entry and exit prices.

 

Good Investing!

David Ristau

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Comments


  1. David Ristau

    Oxen Report Morning Levels

    SRS – The ETF has come down a bit from being down even 1% when I wrote the original post, but it is still down a few points. I think buying in at 13.40 is a really great price to get into the ETF. However, it may have really quick movement upwards, and if hits 13.55 before hitting 13.40, I will take that instead.

    What I am doing is bracketing. I want to get the lowest price I can, but I am worried that the trend I was talking about in this morning’s post may happen faster than I expected, and so, I want to have another price of entry I like just in case it opens in the green and move ups from there.

    I will wait on the exit until I get the exact entry price.

    HOV – The stock has come down a lot. I think entering it for a short sale right at the open if its in the 3.80 – 3.85 range is perfect.

    Then, we will want an exit of 3.60 – 3.55 for a 3%-4% gain.

    Good Investing!

  2. Zuko775

    David,
    No Shares available to short.  DId you sat I could use options to accomplish this?

  3. David Ristau

    Oxen Report Entry/Exit Official Levels

    HOV – Okay we were able to get in at our 3.80 price, and we will be looking for an exit of 3.60 – 3.55 now.

    SRS – We were able to get into SRS ar 13.40. We are now looking for an exit of 13.70 – 13.90. That will give us a gain around 2.5% to nearly 4%.

    Good Investing!

  4. RMM

    David: closed CAH with 3.3 % ROR.

  5. David Ristau

    RMM – Nice nice nice. Glad the High Risk Pick of the Day worked out this time. Did you happen to get into SRS or short HOV?

  6. Pharmboy

    In HOV at 3.83….

  7. lafitu

    David,
    I short HOV at 3.88. is KBH still a good short? I still have some put on KBH.

  8. David Ristau

    Latifu – I think KBH could definitely see some downward movement this week. Friday is the big home sales report, so it could pull up then. But from now till Thursday close, you should see a lower price.

    Pharmboy – Good price to get in, but market doesn’t want to go red just yet. Still got a long day.

  9. gatsby1965

    What do you think David….patience required for SRS?

  10. David Ristau

    Gatsby1965 – Yeah. I mean after yesterday, we have to expect some kind of resistance, but with the data that came out…it should be moving up. Long day still. We will have to wait and see.

  11. spider

    Morning.
    Just read this post:
    in HOV $-3.87 
    in SRS $+13.30

  12. thiscomeslast

    Got in SRS at 13.39, this is my first time day trading.  I looked around for a site and liked this one the most.
    What % rate do you get taxed at for selling a stock at under a year though?  I know it’s higher than if you hold it a year.

  13. Kwan

    taxation = 40% if memory serves me correctly..

  14. David Ristau

    Thiscomeslast – It really depends on how much you make on trades, and what your total income is. I think its around 15%, but my accountant does all my taxes. I am not positive.

  15. Kwan

    I was off by 5%.
    "Short-term capital gains are taxed at a maximum rate of 35 percent while long-term capital gains are taxed at a maximum of 15 percent."

  16. thiscomeslast

    thanks guys, looks like SRS is heading in wrong direction

  17. Pharmboy

    Not liking were these are moving on the daily.  Out of HOV at 3.94.  Will revisit.

  18. David Ristau

    Oxen Report Midday Message

    Aiiiiiiiiiihihihihi! Not sure what that is…not sure what the market is doing either. I just got stopped out of both stocks for a 3% loss.

    Well, the day started out well when Cardinal Health beat earnings estimates, and the newly named High Risk Trade of the Day turned nearly 3% profits in an overnight trade.

    Things all went sour from there.

    SRS – I was under the impression that when you see bad housing data, combined with an overvalued housing market, it means that housing stocks should sell off. The market is rallying off of yesterdays sell off without much fundamental backing, and it is pretty much momentum driven at this point in time. I got stopped out at 13.00. If you still are holding SRS, I like this ETF. I have a fairly bearish sentiment currently because I don’t see the fundamentals in the housing market. They aren’t there. I think holding onto SRS should work over the next two days.

    HOV – The short sale got stopped out as well, as we got squeezed at 8.91.

    Let’s take our losses and look towards tomorrow. I may have a High Risk Trade coming out between 2:30 – 3:30 PM today. Will let you know.

    Good Investing!

  19. spider

    I was out .  just come back. I decide to DD both positions (since i enter with half of my desired position).
    added HOV $-3.95 and SRS $12.98.
     
    Averages: HOV $-3.91 SRS $13.14 and i set a stop from 2.5% from here.

  20. David Ristau

    Spider – Yeah I think it is great. If I had more room to wiggle on my recs and portfolio I wouldve double downed both. I just like the prospects for SRS. Lot of room for upward movement. Housing is not fundamentally bullish!

  21. linhong0h

    Hi David,
    What’s your thoughts on PRXL? I know I should have cut my loss but it’s in my 401K account so I don’t mind holding it for a little bit longer. At the same time, I also think it might be better for me to sell it for a loss (kind of big though) now and buy another stock with better upside potential.
    Thanks.

  22. David Ristau

    PRXL – The stock is actually fairly oversold and undersold at this point. Had some nice gains today. To be honest, I don’t think this thing is going to have a lot of movement. It will follow the market, and I think we are generally range bound for awhile and/or facing some downward movement. I think if you want to hold, you may see 16s in a couple of months. Might just sell it and try to look for something. Longterm I do like this sector, but PRXL compared to its competitors actually has disappointed me. If you like this sector, take a glance at Covance Inc. (CVD) or Pharmaceutical Product Development Inc. (PPDI). I think these have a lot better upward potential.

  23. RMM

    David : just openeds SRS at 12.99$, that was my limit.

  24. RMM

    David: SRS, made a small gain and went back in again at 12.99$.

  25. RMM

    David solod SRS again with .7 % gain, trade the channel between 12.99 and 13.8 $.

  26. David Ristau

    Oxen High Risk Trade of the Day: Analog Devices Inc. (ADI)

    ADI is one of my favorite tech stocks, and a company that actually improved its earnings last quarter, when most semiconductors were stumbling their feet and showing extreme profit drops. The company reports their earnings in after hours today, and I have to say that the stock and EPS estimates appear to be pretty weak for this stock.

    Let’s start with the competition. The major American competitor of ADI is Texas Instruments (TXN) with its other competition coming out of Europe from STMicroelectronics and NXP Semiconductors. STM is also traded on the American markets as an ADR. All companies have faired very well in this latest quarter. STM grew its earnings nearly 10% quarter over quarter from Q1 to Q2. Texas Instruments grew its earnings 1900% quarter over quarter, and NXP swung back to being profitable. The semiconductor industry, as a whole, has recovered well in Q2 with a general global recovery. ADI in its Q2 earnings (comparable to most companies Q1 earnings) was much better off than most companies, beating revenue and margin expectations.

    So, quick thinking is that this company is going to have more substantial growth. Well, the company gave pretty flat guidance for their Q3 earnings being released tonight, and they expected growth to level off for them. Last quarter the company hit an EPS of 0.21. This quarter they are estimated at 0.20, which is line with earnings one year ago. Some analysts, however, think these predictions are too low.

    Credit Suisse, for example, sees revenue increasing from last quarter at $475 million to $490 million. With similar costs, that would raise the EPS above 0.21 to 0.22 – 0.23 right there. Though is smart to think that the company can expect higher revenue? Well, for the second quarter, the Semiconductor Industry Assoc. said that worldwide sales grew 17% of semiconductors above Q1, and in June, sales in the USA grew 4.8%. That is important since it is the place where ADI does most of their business.

    Why the low EPS? The company estimated they would earn an EPS around 0.19, but that was on flat growth in the semiconductor industry. Earlier this month, ADI’s chairman noted that they were seeing very strong stabilization and expected the entire industry to be back to normal in October. So, in my opinion, the EPS just seems too undervalued.

    Analysts have agreed. The stock has been upgraded six times in the past two months. In the same time, the stock has grown just over 10%. The stock does have lower beta, but it is still nearly 20% off of 52 week highs. Further, the company has a lower P/E ratio than its competitors, meaning that a beat should be even better received than TXN and STM’s earnings beats were received.

    The final point I want to make about ADI is that whenever I am making these picks, I want to buy a stock that has not priced in earnings already and chart looks like it still has room for growth. ADI currently is at that lower bollinger band, and the bands are squeezing together, which means the stock should have some type of major breakout. If earnings are good, it should be to that upside. Bad…let’s not even think about that. However, how oversold the stock has been over the past couple weeks does mean that a miss will probably be a bit range bound, and the stock will not plummet into a dark abyss (like LDK Solar did).

    I think you can get ADI at a cheap price this last hour. Let’s see those earnings beats and some strong guidance.

    Good Investing!

  27. David Ristau

    RMM – Nice. I think I would hold some positions overnight if you have any still. I like its prospects. Nothing big tomorrow coming out. We will really see where we are tomorrow with nothing major to influence it.

  28. RMM

    David: hope you ARE RIGHT WITH adi, OPENED A POSITION AT 27.18$

  29. dflam

    Stocks sold that  are held less than 1 yr  are taxed at ordinary income,not cap gains of 15 %

  30. David Ristau

    Dflam – Thanks for the clarification.

    RMM – I do too. My creditibility is always on the line.

  31. Rich_

    ADI is sure bouncing around just after close.

  32. David Ristau

    Revenue and EPS beat expectations!

    EPS at 0.22, expected was 0.20. Revenue at $492 million, expectations were at $480 million.

    YUM!

  33. Rich_

    David – your prediction was excellent, but the after market seems to be very negative.
    So far.

  34. linhong0h

    then why does it traded at $26 AH?

  35. David Ristau

    Rich – Yeah just basic sell off.Some financial sites don’t even have results up yet. Let’s give it some time to see what happens.

  36. Rich_

    I agree, but there seems to be some big volume selling involved.

  37. David Ristau

    Geez. They raised expecations for Q4. Their revenue estimates are better than expected. I don’t get any redness here.

  38. willl

    now we’ve given some time and the stock just headed lower…

  39. Rich_

    HPQ (one of Phil’s) had a similar after hours report.  It also dove down after the report, then quickly recovered and is now up.

  40. Rich_

    It’s like we are all in some "The Simpsons" cartoon, where up is down and down is up.
    Maybe all this wierdness is an indication the bubble is about to pop. (I hope!)

  41. David Ristau

    Unbelievable…

    I am dumbfounded on this and have no response whatsoever.

  42. David Ristau

    ADI from Briefing:

    Can you find anything negative in this:

    Analog Devices beats by $0.02, beats on revs; guides Q4 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus Reports Q3 (Jul) earnings of $0.22 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.02 better than the First Call consensus of $0.20; revenues fell 25.3% year/year to $492 mln vs the $479.6 mln consensus. Analog Devices reports Q3 gross margin 54.1% vs 54.8% First Call consensus, guidance was for 54-55%. Co issues upside guidance for Q4, sees EPS of $0.24-0.26 vs. $0.24 consensus; sees Q4 revs of $510-530 mln vs. $498.30 mln consensus. Co said, "There are near-term indications that business conditions are improving. Order rates strengthened throughout the third quarter and have remained strong during the first two weeks of August. Our book-to-bill ratio for the third quarter, as measured by end customer bookings, was above one, and our fourth quarter opening backlog was up from last quarter…. While we plan to continue to tightly manage inventory levels, we expect a small increase in utilization, which should result in a gross margin in the fourth quarter of approximately 55.0%. In addition, we plan to continue to closely manage operating expenses and expect them to increase slightly by approximately 1% to 2% in the fourth quarter."

  43. dstillwe

    ADI. Look, David. I’m still gonna make these plays with you. But let’s stop being flabbergasted by a bad call and be prepared to salvage the trade. Let’s buck up.

  44. Rich_

    I’m with David on this.  There is a "REASON" why this stock crashed after hours on a relatively good earnings report.  We should research it, in order to be more knowledgeable next time.  I have a feeling some "insider" shenanigans are pulling our strings.  Maybe the truth will come out, maybe not.

  45. fuzz

    David, hah!  I totally understand your feelings. I guess someone knows more than we do, I was too curious as of why that could happen, but … I don’t know. I guess we will see it tomorrow, whether ADI regains sanity or if something comes out that would explain what happened. Good call nonetheless, given the information that is available, we can’t control everything. I still have a feeling that unless something ugly comes out tomorrow then ADI should fill that gap created in the AH.

  46. swellcat

    ADI recovered to $26.28.  Would’ve been a decent little after hours pure play (or average down opportunity) with it having been available as low as the mid-$25s.  We’ll see if Wednesday will salvage it for us.

  47. David Ristau

    Dstillwe – I completely disagree with you. I’m not flabbergasted so you will make the picks with me. If you like them, you can make them. I am flabbergasted because I want to become a better analyst. If I don’t learn from my mistakes, then how can I ever be a better trader? If I post something and someone responds with something constructive, such as a reason why it might have gone down, then it helps me to learn from my mistakes. Investing is about constantly learning not just making trades and never stopping to think.

    Rich – Yeah, I would like to figure out this REASON. We will have to see what happens tomorrow before I can gauge this better.

    Fuzz – I think we could see it gap up back to today’s levels for sure, and I hope it does. A quick drop and it recovered back 1.5%. I like that sign on low volume. We will have to wait and see.

    Swellcat – Thanks for the update. I think it will.

  48. David Ristau

    Oxen Report Daily Recap

    Well, well, well. The day started out well for the picks with Cardinal Health Inc. (CAH), Monday’s High Risk Trade. We saw a nice 2.75% gain overnight on the stock, as the company beat earnings’ estimates and raised its expectations. From there, things did not go as well.

    Buy Pick of the Day: SRS

    The inverse ETF of the housing sector was picked due to a miss in building permits and housing starts, as well as, what appeared to me to be a market that was in line for more selling. The market, however, really balked the early fundamental economic data. The earnings from Saks and Home Depot helped pull the market up. We entered SRS at 13.40 and had a stop loss set at 13.00. The stock fell to the high 12.80s before recouping some of those losses and finishing the day at 13.18. If you held the stock or doubled down, I really like this position, even at 13.40. This one could have a very solid Wednesday and Thursday, but we missed it today.

    Sell Pick of the Day: HOV

    Well, we had Hovnanian Enterprises Inc. as a short sale, but it did not work. The same reason I picked SRS was why I wanted to short Hovnanian. The stock was entered at 3.77, and we got stopped out at 3.91. I am confident in SRS, so I am confident in this short sale still, if you are still holding onto it.

    Agenda for Tomorrow

    Tomorrow is a very light day for the markets. This is one of the reasons I am confident on SRS. The market got its rebound today, but without any big data to prop it up, if we are really in a bear market the market may be ready to sell off. We will be getting the crude inventories tomorrow, so the oil market may move based on those numbers. Other than that, we only have some earnings to give the market some direction. The most important ones are Deere and Yingli Green Energy, but neither are really market movers. In after hours, we did get the somewhat bullish Hewlett Packard earnings that beat expectations on a large revenue drop. Most analysts did not think that the results were extremely excellent but not bad.

    Economic Calendar: 10:30 AM – Crude Inventories

    Earnings Calendar: BJ Wholesale, Deere, Eaton Vance, Perry Ellis, Yingli Green Energy

    Good luck tomorrow, good investing, and let’s get some support behind Analog Devices Inc.!

  49. willl

    Maybe a little bit out of topic: this is the difference between the techinical analysis and fundermental analysis. And I have to say: fundermental analysis is hard (that’s why I’m following David to learn). Fundermental analysis should give you better ideas on why a stock is up or down and helps you catch the move earlier. Techincial analysis is useful but also gives too many false signals nowadays because it’s easy to learn and more and more people are looking at it (which makes it less useful…)
    In any case, as David mentioned, it’s high risk and you should only invest smaller amount of money (I only get in 100 shares @ 27.21). Let’s hope it gaps up and goes higher tomorrow!

  50. dstillwe

    Dumbfounded. Your choice of words. Not mine. My point is you should offer insight on what to do rather than crying about how it all went so wrong.

  51. spider

    Still in SRS & HOV.
     
    ADI didnt follow. Heres why:
     
    Yesterday was at $27+ and we expect to go up (thats why we looking to go long) lets say we expect $28. Now, if their earnings go "inline" we have 20c a quarter thats 80c a year. Lets make $1 a year if we expect better guidance. So we have a 28 P/E future. Thats too much.
     
    The problem is, as I see now, the market sometimes reacts good on good news, sometimes reacts bad on good news. And the same happens on bad news, good and bad reactions mixed. Going into earnings is like a gamble in Las Vegas in this market.
     
    Thats why I take the LDK bet… because craziness, but on "MY and only my" fundamental its a $0 share.  So, the bottom line, for me, is that David is making a great effort to bring his perspective and we have to compare to ours, only then decide if we take or not the bet.
     
    Nobody, David, Phil, Warren buffet is always correct.  If someone has the crystal ball will not be here. Will be in some paradisaic island living a wonderfu :-D
     
    Btw, great call on CAH and on HOV/SRS working fine today.

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