The Oxen Report: Weekly Reflection

June 6, 2010

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Does everyone remember when Microsoft was the greatest American company? I saw this interesting chart this weekend, and it really shows how much market share the company has lost in the past ten years. While I do not tend to play much in the way of technology, I did find this to be astonishing.

This past week was quite a great week for The Oxen Report as we made four successful trades for 38%, 4%, 3%, and 2% gains with no misses. We also got involved into a new long term position in the Long Term Virtual Portfolio in an overvalued coffee maker. This week we investigated the IMF and its role in third world loans as a four-part series for The Daily Discourse. Finally, we did our monthly virtual portfolio update for the three virtual portfolios: The Buy Pick Virtual Portfolio, The Short Sale Virtual Portfolio, and The Long Term Virtual Portfolio. The Buy Pick virtual portfolio is up 19% for the year as of June. The Short Sale Virtual Portfolio is up 8%. The Long Term Virtual Portfolio just began at the end of May.

Winners for the Week:

Quiksilver Inc. (ZQK) – ZQK was this week’s Play of the Week. We were intrigued by ZQK due to the fact that the company looked poised for a great quarter with earnings being reported on Thursday evening and the fact that the company had had back-to-back 80%+ quarterly gain surprises. We got involved on Monday at 4.60 looking for a 4-6% gain, but the market’s tank on Monday quickly dropped the price of ZQK. We were not able to move back up to 4.60 and beyond until Thursday. We exited at 4.78 on Thursday for a 4% gain. It was unfortunate for us as the stock rocketed up past 5.50 on Friday, but we still took a safe exit.

Hovnanian Enterprises Inc. (HOV) – HOV was our Buy of the Day for Wednesday. We liked HOV for the fact that Wednesday afternoon it was reporting its earnings. The company had had a lights out quarter in Q1 of 2010, and I was expecting the company would get a nice buying interest for that reason along with the fact that the company was heavily undervalued. Further, the company looked to get some interest from a pending home sales announcement. We got involved at 6.00 and exited at 6.18 for a 3% gain.

Exide Technologies Inc. (XIDE) – Additionally, on Wednesday, we got involved with our most profitable trade of the week in Wednesday’s Overnight Trade of the Day at 4.00. We held it overnight and were able to exit at 5.45 the next morning for a 38%! gain. The company reported a great earnings report on Wednesday evening to help allow the company make the exceptional move to the upside.

Direxion Daily Energy Bear ETF (ERY) – ERY was our final winner for this week. On Thursday, we had two plays, but we were only able to get involved with one – ERY. We liked ERY for a short sale because the price of oil was increasing on Thursday, and it appeared that the market was going to move up throughout the day. We got involved in the morning at 11.60, and we exited at 11.40 for a 2% gain.

Long Term Additions:

Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR) – We got involved with GMCR on Friday as a new position in our Long Term Virtual Portfolio. We are interested in this company, in the long term, moving down instead of upwards. The company is overvalued at over 40x earnings, and I am expecting the company, which has increased at unbelievable rates over the past few years to slow down and lose its price value. We got involved at 24.05. We are looking for an exit near the 15 range.

Long Term Virtual Portfolio Updates:

Trina Solar (TSL) – Our entrance in TSL was at 17.65 this past Friday. The stock closed the week at 16.49. Over the week, we got news from Germany that the country may not cut subsidies as soon or at all, which is great news for TSL moving forward. Additionally, the company entered an agreement with SERIS in the USA to produce even more efficient solar cells even though the company has the second most efficient cell currently.

Losers of the Week:

None

Coming up this week:

Important Economic Indicators: Federeal Reserve Beige Book on Wednesday, Trade Balance on Thursday, Initial Jobless Claims on Thursday, and Retail Sales on Friday