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Full Throttle Friday – Dollar Dive Does Bears In

Oh what fun this is! 

Now the ECB is lending the IMF about $200Bn, which the IMF can lever up to lend Eurozone countries another $500Bn and that's before the Fed and the BOJ and all the other partners in World Crime get together and pump even more money in.  Nothing gives the old Futures a shot in the arm like MORE FREE MONEY and, interestingly enough, the ECB handing out cash Boosts the Euro, now over the $1.35 line.  

This is, of course, FANTASTIC for our Monday trade ideas, which were:  

 

  • FAS Dec $48/55 bull call spread at $3, selling the $40 puts for $2.40 for net .60 on the $7 spread. 5 in the WCP on that one.  (Now net $4.95 – up 725%)

  • FXE Dec $132/135 bull call spread at $1.20, selling the $129 puts for $1.10 for net .10 on the $3 spread.  (Now $1.45, up net 1,350%)

  • JPM Jan $25 puts can be sold for $1.20 (Now .65 – up 45%)

  • AA 2013 $7.50 puts can be sold for $1.28 (Now $1.05 – up 18%)

  • VLO June $17 puts can be sold for $2.05 (Now $1.40, up  32%)

  • Gasoline (/RB) futures at $2.55 (Now $2.62 – up $2,940 per contract)

Now I know that these are the kind of results you get every week so, whatever you do – don't subscribe to our Newsletter!  Why would you want these ideas EMailed to you every morning before the market opens?  If they make you money, then you have to pay taxes and paying taxes is evil, right?  Premium Membership is sold out but you wouldn't want to get trade ideas live during market hours anyway.  Less than $2 per day, however, gets you our Annual PSW Report Membership and you are able to read our full posts every morning, as soon as they are published.  

Speaking of Premium Memberships, congrats to all who followed us last week as it was a doozy!  You can tell from our titles (and our Stock World Weekly Newsletter does a great recap of the action each week and is included with that Report Membership) how we turned bullish over the week

Keep in mind, these are titles that go out in the "In Progress" posts that are Emailed to our Members every day so they are generally market predictions AHEAD of the open – not bad, right?  We officially flipped bullish on Wednesday as we liked the bottom during chat but, even early that morning, my comment at the end of Wednesday's post was:

I already told Members this morning that none of this "news" is NEW and it’s no reason to sell-off. We were mildly bullish into yesterday’s close but it’s CASH that is King and we have no desire to do more than pick up a few quick day trades ahead of the Thanksgiving Weekend. The 2,200 line in the Nasdaq futures (/NQ) are a great line to go long off this morning and $96 should hold on oil (/CL) into the weekend while the 11,400 line on the Dow (/YM) is a good spot to go long there.

The Nasdaq Futures are now at 2,336 and those Futures contracts (/NQ) pay $20 per point so a profit of $2,720 PER CONTRACT off that suggestion this morning (and I'd take it and run ahead of the Non-Farm Payroll Report!) while the Dow Futures pay $5 per point PER CONTRACT with the Dow (/YM) now at 12,135 so $3,675 per contract on that one and oil, which we usually hate, is up to $101 (and we're short now), which is up $5 at $10 per penny per contract or a profit of $5,000 per contract since last Wednesday.   These are just the free picks, from the morning post – Happy Holidays Indeed!  

In the Morning Alert to Members (also Emailed each morning), I reiterated the futures plays and added the QQQ 12/2 $55 calls at .62 – those closed yesterday at $2.30, turning each $62 contract into $230 (up 270%).  We did also have a losing trade in that Alert, taking a poke at the 11/25 $55 calls as well at .13 so that lowers the net gain for the two to 205% but, to be fair, I did say at the time of the trade that the Fridays were likely to expire worthless as we expected Fed action but probably not over the Holiday Weekend.  

T July $29 puts sold short for $3.35 were Hoss's idea in Member Chat and those are already down to $2.60 (up 22%) and I put up a note to Members at 10:56 with 4 more bullish trade ideas followed 2 minutes later with 2 more and another two (WFR and QQQ) at 11:03 and then TLT at 11:06:

RIG 2013 $40 puts can be sold for $7.30 for a net $32.70 entry (28% off)  (Now $7 – up 4%)

FMCN 2013 $10 puts can be sold for $2.60 and that pays for the July $17/24 bull call spread at about the same (net .10 entry).  (Now net .80 – up 700%) 

CHK July $20 puts can be sold for $2.60.  (Now $1.75 – up 32%)

TM 2013 $55 puts can be sold for $5 and the $62.50 calls can be bought for $6.50 so net $1.50 on the long side. Let’s do 10 of those in the Income Portfolio as we can sell calls against them for the rest of the year if TM improves and, if not, nothing wrong with owning TM long-term at net $56.50.  (Now net $5.20 – up 246%)

20 QQQ NEXT Weekly $55 calls at .48 in the WCP  (Now $1.80 – up 275%)

5 TNA Dec $35/40 bull call spreads at $2.25 in WCP  (Now $3.80 – up 69%)

WFR 2013 $2.50/5 bull call spread at $1.20 is a nice way to limit the risk. If things get worse, you can sell puts but a nice 100% upside potential if the stock gains 25%.  (Still $1.20 – even)

DIS 2013 $30 puts can be sold for $3.80, paying for $30/40 bull call spread at $5.60 for net $1.80 on the $10 spread that’s $3.68 in the money and worst case is you own DIS at net $31.80 (now $33.70)  (Now $2.30 – up 27%)

TLT Next week $121/119 bear put spread at .75 is a fun spread. 10 in WCP on thoughts that the 7-year note auction might not be THAT good.  (Should expire at $2 – up 166%)  

Also during that day's Member Chat:

CHK/Obur – Selling 2013 $17.50 puts for $2.60 is all the better  (Now $2 – up 23%)

FAS Money/StJ – Damn, I would have held them on that spike. I’d sell another Next week $51 put (now $4.10) to make up the cash.  (Should expire worthless – up 100%)

WFR/Pak – I like it but, if you don’t mind owning them for net $3.73, I’d sell the 2014 $3 puts for .80 and buy the 2013 $2.50/5 bull call spread for $1.20 for net .40 on the $2.50 spread. Worst case is you’re in 1x at net $3.40 but the upside is very nice ($2.10) and your break-even is way down at $2.95 so better downside protection, more upside gains.  (Now net .50 – up 25%)

XLF Weekly $10 calls are $1.85 with about .02 in premium, 10 in the WCP into the close but out at the close no matter what – looking for $2.05 or better (Out at goal at $2.05 – up 10%) 

Now THAT's a bullish turn-around!  We never have a dozen picks in a day unless we're calling a turn from cash – and that's where we were last week.  This is why we like to cash out at the top and bottom of our ranges – look at the opportunities that came up and, of course, this was during the day Wednesday and we finished at the lows and were lower on Friday – so most of these entries came in better than our targets!  On the whole, the day's action was very appropriate re. my video example from my "Thanksgiving Thoughts" post:  

"Some days I make 20 bets, some day’s I make none. There are weeks, sometimes months, in fact when I don’t make a bet at all because there simply is no play. So I wait, plan, marshal my resources. And, when I finally see an opportunity, and there is a bet to make – I bet it all."  

Wednesday was one of those days we made 20 bets, after staying "Cashy and Cautious" for a very long time.  Now we are on a very nice run but there's no reason to let our shorter-term plays ride over the weekend.  This also marks the end of our PSW Annual Trade Idea giveaway, which we like to do ahead of the holidays to help out people who are too cheap to subscribe.  If you've done well following our ideas – you don't have to subscribe but please consider sharing your good fortune with those who have so much less this holiday season – thanks! 

Reach more New Yorkers with a matching gift!

 

As to the economy and the day's events – who gives a crap?  It's coordinated Central Bank action so what are you going to do, fight all the Feds?  That's kind of silly.  We're concerned over the weekend so we'll go back to cash and, should we keep going up next week (likely but not certain), then we have plenty of cash to make trades like the ones above.  Should the market crash and burn because someone says something or another EU Nation hits the debt spotlight – then we'll be happy to go bottom-fishing again once the panic subsides. 

Because – some days we make 20 bets and some days we make none! 

Have a great weekend, 

- Phil

 


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  1. Oil Lines

    R3 – 103.58
    R2 – 102.37
    R1 –  101.28
    PP – 100
    S1 – 99
    S2 – 97.77
    S3 – 96.68

    Yesterday’s high and low – 101.17 / 98.87

    Breakout lines – 104.89 / 92.84


  2. Happy (8.6) Friday!
     
    :)


  3. Bruce Beattie 


  4.   stjeanluc: "lucky"
    I liked your point earlier that even an "intellectual gift" can be attributed to luck. Many with above average intelligence think it is a trait they earned or were in some way more deserving to receive. 


  5. can someone help me with the math re the unemployment rate improving by 4 tenths?


  6. Thats all that matters….8.6% will be on the lips of regular everyday folk. Wonder where this puts the Fed on QE.


  7. Lucky / Lincoln – Indeed… Being born with above average intellectual capacities in a country where you can actually make use of it is even more incredibly lucky! 


  8. Angel 64.2% labor force drops to 64%..thats .4% lower in UE


  9. lots of people left the labor pool


  10. Friday 12-2-2011
     
    Dr. John L. Faessel
    ON THE MARKET
    Commentary and Insights
     
    Quote of the day
    “No nation can survive without passing its heritage, language and, yes, faith to the next generation. A country must be built on something substantial and if the cultural elitists think it can be built on "diversity," that is the foundation of shifting sand."
    ~ Cal Thomas ~
    ~
    EuroLand Bond Yields in “historic” retreat
     
    Italy 10-year (gross) bond yield – 6.432% off from 7.26% on 11-24
    Spanish 10-year (generic) bond yield – 5.48% – off from 6.7% on 11/24
     
    The McClellan Oscillator is in NEUTRAL @ minus 42
    S&P Futures are up 17 points at this writing…
     
    Yesterday was an epic day (another one) in the markets, but the major stock indexes were basically unchanged after Wednesday’s huge up day (a low-high Dow move of 508 points). What was so "epic" about it was that the yields on Euroland bonds fell hugely. Spanish bonds had the biggest move of about 51 basis points in the five-year. Perhaps, stocks didn’t react much because of the monster up day of Wednesday. Today it’s more of the same over there in the Euro bond market and yields are falling again.
     
    What’s going on I think is the Central Banks of the world have gotten together to rev up the printing presses and drop billions into all that “weak” sovereign debt paper. And obviously there is a certain amount of traders getting clobbered and exiting their "wrong" positions. Usually, long-term these currency interventions don’t work out, but they can sure rip the speculators, in this case the Euro bond vigilantes, a new backside. One currency intervention that really did seem to work recently is one in Switzerland just pulled off, where "they" have backed up their Swiss Franc from 1.41 to 1.07. The Swiss are special though, just tad different than the Italians and the Greeks at these things…
     
    Anyway, we now have a war going on with the Central Banks versus the Euro bond vigilantes. Should be interesting as always…
     
    A technical overview of the market as best seen by the S&P looks very positive to me going forward. After our recent 10-day decline that they McClellan at a super-stretched hyper Oversold minus 326 and had "price" backup somewhat into the base of the multi-month consolidation we were primed for a snapback (with steroids). That 10-day downstroke cleaned out all those weak players and that set the stage for what I think will be the continuation of the Santa Claus rally that’s the all-time seasonal trade that happens to correspond this year with a recent cycle low. Of course we have spoken at length about the historic low PEs in the market too.  And we are still vulnerable to the Euro news of the day that can’t really be any good for probably 10-years (if ever). Demographics, etc uggg…
     
    A bit of McClellan very recent history:
    The McClellan Oscillator (my favorite measure of overboughtness or oversoldness) posted a hyper Oversold minus 326 on November 23rd; that was the second lowest “pattern” registration of the year, only to be “out-done by the all time lowest ever McClellan Oscillator posting of a minus 426 that occurred on August 8th. The minus 326 was one the top ten lowest readings ever and all came at major bottoms.
     
    The S&P 500 (SPX) closed yesterday at it lows (and support) 1255.48
     
    (SPX) short term support is at 1240 and 1233
    Then at 1184 and then 1195
    (SPX) support at the August 8th lows is at 1101.
    Support at the October 4th lows is at 1074.
    The 50- moving average "now" support is at (SPX) 1207
     
    Declining tops resistance is at 1270 then higher at 1317
    The 200-day moving average resistance is at 1265.
    Price resistance at the top- tick established on 10/27 of the near four month old consolidation is at 1292 then at 1277.
     
    Thursday’s key indicators and metrics:
     
    ·     McClellan Oscillator is Neutral @ minus 42        
    ·     VIX – 27.41


  11. Angel/Math
    Simply 9.00 – 4 = 8.6%…. the BLS new math as opposed to number of employable less full working people = number of unemployed…. the old math… LOL Have a good day…


  12. Nothing good about this report. Average workweek – no change, hourly earnings down -0.1. Still deflationary. Another few $ gazilion (probably equal to GDP) may bring some inflation, but I doubt that Bernanke survive that long.


  13. Wow, those numbers suck…but hey, who cares.  The other thing to take away is Labor wages were down 2.5% the other day in the PMI(?) report….so less people working (U6 continues to soar), wages falling, productivity increasing or holding steady, and what else am I missing….????  Oh yeah, mortgage delinquencies are on the rise….

    PLX/morx – since the options did not have really good prices, I decided that I needed to lighten up a bit. With the impending market correction (albeit a small one if things are right in the charts), I thought it was best to lighten up a bit, but as I said, I will buy it back under $6, of which I expect it to get to.


  14. VLO – Thanks for stuff like this. Question: when you choose a long date for a VLO (as opposed to say a wayyyyy long date for AAPL), are you/ we expecting to ride it out for max profit? Or do you also select, as here, a June date because it’s offers the most immediate profit opp based on the premium you’re seeing out there? I ask because I’d normally take the 30% now – esp on a weekly or monthly. Curious.


  15. Another good view on the unemployment rate drop.


  16. Phil / Congrats
    Congrats on the nice trades! Very good timing with those calls.  I wish there was a way though I could setup some type of alert system when you post a trade.  I’m not at my computer all day watching the markets, so many times I miss out.  Being in a foreign country doesn’t help matters either.  Any ideas?  


  17.  


  18. Interestingly, whatever we think about the market – if it keeps going up like this, hedge fund managers, who seem under-exposed to US equities (and are trailing their benchmarks) may pile in so that don’t fall further behind by year end. May end up giving up crazy year end window dressing if it plays out this way. Not to mention short covering if we continue pushing higher.


  19. New Perspective – Tell me of I’m getting this (more) right. Back in the day – months ago – on a big up or down market day, I would, naturally, look at not insubstantial jumps or drops in my overall portfolio values. Now, I think, in line with managing smaller plays and profits – and using stops and such – even on a big up day, I might not notice much overall gain. But I’m taking this as a very good thing. Of course, its performance over time that matters, but I’m feeling a newer sense of calm with my overall balances moving little from day-to-day. I still need to learn to make trades and manage them in a way that fit my lifestyle – some need more attention, waiting out bull call spreads, etc. – but it seems like this is a good path.


  20.  


  21. Phil/SHJ
    In the comments section of SPJ website, a former member of PSW (for only a quarter) stated PSW was a blog for liberal’s not really a trading site….. LOL.  Maybe, you should send today’s post with trade results to SHJ to post…… However, I did post my own lengthy comments about PSW on his site yesterday….. "defending your honor and the site’s honor"…….Isn’t the internet great…. everyone gets an opinion… informed or uninformed……… 


  22.  



  23. EDZ – I set this up when reco originally appeared: Apr 25c/45c/15p. Thinking about it only as a disaster hedge, I haven’t really cared much about the beating it’s taking right now. As only a hedge for me, is it right to sit or does even a further out hedge need adjustment? I suppoe I’d rather not have the put go under – but April is a ways off.


  24. hanna5/hedgies
    Exactly, my thoughts… even institutional managers…


  25. Good morning!  

    Jobs were disappointing but who cares,right?  The Dollar jammed all the way back to 78 to give us that pop at the open but that’s over now and we’re back to 78.30 with the same danger line at 78.50 that we had yesterday.   Oil is blessing us with a beautiful collapse on it’s 2nd cross under $101 (see morning chat at the end of yesterday’s chat) and this time they mean it as we’re down to $100.17 already (so the stop is $100.25).  Once again, our Egg McMuffins are paid for! 

    CASH IS NOW KING AGAIN – Is that clear?  We are not up enough to have confidence and the Dollar was crushed and we didn’t break over our levels so CASHCASHCASH – that goes for the WCP, that goes for any short-term bullish position – IS THAT CLEAR???

    Other than that, I have very little to add at the morning – I just want to make sure this Alert goes out right away so let’s just get back to cash and have a nice, relaxing weekend and we can mess around with new stuff on Monday but – as you can see from the above post (and that doesn’t even include the WCP picks and our other bull bets) – it’s been a fabulous couple of weeks so why push our luck?  

    Downside hedge is still EDZ – as I’ve said, China is probably the next disaster focus now that we’ve beaten the bears back in Europe.  The EDZ Jan $15/20 bull call spread is $2 and you can sell the $16 puts for $1.50 and if I have to tell you why I love this net .50 hedge with EDZ currently at $17.80 – you need to go back and do some remedial reading!  

    I still like the oil shorts but that’s more like riding a bronco whereas EDZ gives us smoother waves. 

    Have a great weekend, 

    - Phil


  26. Phil,
    Looks like you YRCW spec. stock must have reverse split or something.  Trading as YRCWD at ~$9.50. Maybe this is old news to the active members on here.  I am not able to be around all the time and see everything. Short at this?


  27. Several weeks ago,  I stopped receiving your E-Mail alerts.  Please put  me back on the list.  This is my second request.


  28. Hanna without QE they wont have enough participation for a serious year end rally..markets can go only so high with flipping of stocks and not actual buy and hold type of market that we need to sustain moves higher. We are trading headlines, perception of risk through currencies and bonds.

    I think the Fed could kill a flock of birds with one stone (QE) but, can Bernanke control our rates? That is the ?.


  29. vortexrc – did you try adding yourself back by going to vortexrc’s account at the top of this page and making sure the phil’s alerts box is checked on the page? If it’s already checked your spam trap is probably catching the alerts.


  30. As we’re up about 10%, we’d love to see a 2% pullback (20% of the gain) and I’ll do a chart for that over the weekend but about back to 11,800 on the Dow, 1,235 on the S&P (still Must Hold!) and 2,600 on the Nas.  

    Oil just under $100 but I’d take the short $101 money and run too as I doubt they are going to let us fall far today – it’s the weekend I’m concerned about and, since we’re up another 1% this morning – why mess around as we have so many big winners to cash out?  

    Intellectual luck/StJ – Very good point although I would argue some skill provided by a succession of family members not marrying stupid people does help (and it may also explain how the anti-intellectual party, over time, produces Rick Perry)…  Good cartoon.  

    Unemployment/Angel – Total BS.  Did 500,000 people get jobs?  It’s certainly not reflected in any data.  I’m sure Barry will do his usual good job ripping through the data so I don’t even bother anymore but it’s just clearly a nonsense statistic.  Also, notice wages were down again – the middle class in this country is simply being crushed.  Ah, actually the WSJ has a pretty good analysis:  

    The unemployment rate is calculated based on people who are without jobs, who are available to work and who have actively sought work in the prior four weeks. The “actively looking for work” definition is fairly broad, including people who contacted an employer, employment agency, job center or friends; sent out resumes or filled out applications; or answered or placed ads, among other things. The rate is calculated by dividing that number by the total number of people in the labor force.

    In October, the household survey showed the number of people unemployed fell by 594,000, but the labor force — the number of people working or looking for work — fell by a little more than half that amount. That means that though the number of employed people rose, a large group just stopped looking for work. That could be due to discouragement of the long-term unemployed or by choice over retirement or child care. So the decline in the unemployment rate to 8.6% was about half due to people finding jobs and half people dropping out.

    Meanwhile, the broader unemployment rate, known as the “U-6″ for its data classification by the Labor Department, dropped by a 0.6 percentage point last month. The U-6 figure includes everyone in the official rate plus “marginally attached workers” — those who are neither working nor looking for work, but say they want a job and have looked for work recently; and people who are employed part-time for economic reasons, meaning they want full-time work but took a part-time schedule instead because that’s all they could find.

    The key to the drop in the broader unemployment rate was due to a 378,000 drop in the number of people employed part time but who would prefer full-time work, that comes on top of a big drop in that category last month. That number could reflect people having their hours increased or part-time workers moving on to full time work.


  31. Google is offering a amazon prime like service in 2012. They’re aiming to provide 1 day delivery.  


  32. Phil/Jobs,
     
    I thought I hear that jobs came in better and unemployment was down below 9%.


  33. Massive short squeeze in financials, looks like someone knows the Fed is about to embark on QE3.


  34. GNW in the WCP:
    Are the calls still uncovered? If so, is this a good time to cover (or 1/2 cover) for protection over the weekend?


  35. Good morning,

     

    IWM  71.87,  72.15,  72.56,  72.98,  73.24,  73.61,  74.14,  74.58  and 75.38

    I’m in TNA again as "they" knew all of this weeks "news" on Saturday !!  Also, a break North of yesterday’s high coupled with a green close has an 81% shot at higher highs:

    But before you start locking in a ton of buy-writes. more evidence supporting my "Big Picture" from Tim Knight:


  36. Sold 1/4 more of my AAPL Dec 370s.   Keeping 1/4 position.    AAPL traders:  Take some profits.  Don’t chase right now, but stay in the game. 


  37. JRW – Is that chart showing the market or just the ratio of NZD to USD?


  38.  Stj: / Intelligence:  "Zeal compensates much better for a lack of talent than talent compensates for a lack of zeal."  -- Your [former] countryman, JJRousseau.   I’ve always thought that intelligence was a highly overrated virtue.


  39. Phil the USO 38 long put I guess you did not write about it this morning trust it is a dead horse?


  40. Rejection at 78.40 is hopeful for bulls so far.  Oil $100.29, Gold $1,751 – XLF flying!  

    RIMM got whacked just when it was starting to show signs of life.  

    Come on Pharm, you are thinking too much – IT JUST DOESN’T MATTER!  

    You’re welcome NF.  Generally, if I’m out in July (3-6 months) it means I am concerned that I could be wrong and want time to roll/adjust on a position I don’t mind adding to.  Rule of thumb is, the shorter time to expiration, the tighter stops should be and the quicker profits should be taken but, as you say – 30% with 6 months left to make 70% more isn’t worth holding because we KNOW we can do better than 10% a month with 130% cash.  

    Thanks Burr!  You can use the daily RSS (changes every day) for comments.  It’s right under the main post and today it’s http://www.philstockworld.com/2011/12/02/full-throttle-friday-dollar-dive-does-bears-in/feed/   If you get a reader that filters, you can just put in the names of the people who’s comments you want to read if you just want those.  

    FAS Money/StJ – OK, now we have to seriously consider how much faith we have in each one.  I am VERY confident that the Financials remain oversold.  They have not gone up 30% but the main fear factor has been removed this week.  As I said, China may be next but we don’t have much exposure to China so I think XLF is good for $15 down the road.  It’s already at $65.50 with XLF at $13.12 so maybe a bit of trouble on the short calls so time to sell another put so I’d sell one more next week $59 put for $1.15 – just enough to cover our rolling costs for the callers as we’re not sure that we won’t back down next week (but then we’re off the hook on the callers).  

    Chasing/Hanna – Yep, we could get a nice Santa Rally if we’re still going up next week.  Then it will be time for some upside spreads!  

    Good path/NF – For sure!  It’s ALL about BALANCE!  "Better learn balance. Balance is key. Balance good, trading good. Everything good. Balance bad, better pack up, go home. Understand?"  I think of it like surfing, balance helps you stay on the board and the real trick is to enjoy the ride.  As you go along, the opportunities present themselves to you over time and, if you are balanced – it’s very easy to be able to act because you are in control of your portfolio and, when you add the new position, you can "feel" the shift and that helps you ride out the next wave and the next.  Once you combine balance like that with a premium SELLING discipline – then you will really learn to enjoy the ride because, as long as you stay upright, you just keep collecting waves of cash. 

    IWM Money/StJ – I think we wait for a pullback there to sell puts.  

    Thanks Acobra!  But please, let’s not try to convince "non-liberals" that this is a good trading site.  If agreeing with their politics is the criteria for investing – I don’t have time or inclination to change their minds.  

    AA Money/StJ – I thought you convinced me that selling 4 Dec $9s was a good idea?    Now $1.15.  


  41.  Euro diving, careful on U.S. equities, gents!


  42. ZZ – I can’t find any record of Rousseau saying such a thing.  Where did you get that?

    Also, I understand that intelligence is a threat to conservatives. Thus they would find it overrated.  ;-)


  43. Suffering From An Inability To Connect The Dots
    Phil, good article on Inflation.


  44. FAS Money – Selling 1 FAS Dec2 59 Put (now 1.33). New position in a bit!


  45.  Hi Phil,
    what about YRCWD ?


  46. AA Money / Phil – Actually, I wanted to sell 1/2 a position of the Jan 10 (now 0.75) which can be rolled 2x to the 11 if needed. But you wanted to see if AA would first retest the 9.65 lows. So much for that… But selling the Jan 10 might not be bad if you think that this is BS!


  47. JC:  Not to distract from trading, but to put the issue in finer resolution, intelligence seems to assist functionality up to a certain threshold, after which it seems to confuse people [unless they stumble into cosmology or some such].  A certain blind determination seems to work better in most practical affairs.


  48. jcaesar / Chart

    It show the NZD falling as the USD gains strength as the world economy begins to collapse led by the U.S.

    This time it will be led by Europe and the Asian markets, but with the same effect, imho !!


  49. Did someone on here this week say that TOS will just credit your account the dollar amount fully of a "in the money" expiring spread? Thus avoiding the closing fees.


  50. @ZZ – Fair answer – determination is certainly important.  But did Rousseau actually say that?

    @JRW – Thanks for the explanation!


  51. And the risk profile in TOS with today’s and next week’s expiration plotted:

     


  52. PHil,
     
    I have a Jan ’12 QCOM $55/$60 BCS open with a small loss. Any thoughts on this?
    Thank you for the winning trades.


  53. Phil, my edz Jan 17/27 bcs is down 25%. It is not an edge since it’s the only position open along the Sco jan bcs.does it need to be adjusted now ? How much room should i left to it before closing it?thanks


  54. rpme – Good article, thanks.


  55. JRW, do you actually use that BackScanner software? It looks interesting. I use AmiBroker and NeuroShell for my backtesting, but always interested in new toys! 


  56. you can do a 38/31 bcs on sco with a 35 put for roughly .30 right now.  Should be safe at 35 in the next two week and if not that’s an easy one to roll.


  57.  Selling SLW, up @ 8% on the week.


  58.  Phil, just for clarity sake, by short-term bullish position do you mean over the weekend (momentum plays) or through DEC expiration or something else?  Second I held on to the DIA DEC 116P, now .68, tempted to DD if opp presents itself, in an effort to recover cost.  But from the tone of the forum, I thnik it’s possible that there will be a small correction.  What do you think?  Tks as always.


  59. stjeanluc – I think that graphic for JRW came from Cobra last night.


  60. EDZ/NF – Well, just because it’s a hedge, doesn’t mean you HAVE to lose money on it.  Still April is long way off and that one is a REAL long-term disaster hedge that pays huge guarding against a major melt-down.  As the puts are rollable, they don’t matter much but you should watch the spread.  At the moment, you can roll the caller down to the Jan $19s even and roll yourself to down to the Apr $17s for $1.  The idea is that you can always roll the caller back before they lose $1 (the April $27s are $3) and then you’re in a $10 spread that’s looking good.  If EDZ stays down and the caller expires worthless, then you can easily get your $1 or more back selling another call to cover.  Also, if EDZ goes lower, the quicker loss of premium on the caller will help offset the cost of rolling the putter.  Like I said, just the combo I would watch at the moment as it’s certainly no emergency at $17.72 but below $17.50, it starts looking smart!  

    YRCW/One – Yes, very confusing.  Not sure how it will all adjust out but I certainly wouldn’t trade it either way right now until they settle on a price.  I have been loving them at .05 (even though they went lower) as the upside, if they avoid bankruptcy, is massive.  The reverse split was 1:300 so, if anything, they are down around .03 because of the dilution but those new shares were used to pay off debt so I don’t consider that a bad thing.  Anyway, very likely I’ll want to be bullish next week but not enough facts to decide yet.  

    Emails/Vortex – I’ll  have Greg check for you.  If your Email preferences are checked off under your profile though, then it’s more likely your spam filter or provider as we send out 20,000 a day with no technical issues.  

    And what Kwan said!  

    GOOG/Kwan – Yeah, that’s going to be interesting.  

    Jobs/Exec – Yep, that’s the official story.  Still no major reason to get bearish but I think that when you catch a 10% move in any direction – it’s OK to cash out and maybe miss the next 2.5% rather than risk losing 2.5% by being greedy.  

    QE3/Kustomz – Then why is TLT on the march again?  

    GNW/WCP, Ross – Yes, you are right.  We can get $1.15 for selling 10 Dec $6 calls for $1.15 and that puts us the $5/6 spread for net .19, PLUS short put profits – It’s like locking in over $1,000!  

    Holy crap – Dollar is flying up to 78.75 – now it could be fun to speculate short!  


  61.  JC:  I think I read it in "L’Emile", my bible on child rearing.


  62.  AA Money – are we selling the Jan $10 Calls here?


  63. meant 38/41 on the sco bcs


  64. RUT Futures are a good short below the 740 line (now 740.5) with VERY tight stops.  

    TZA Dec $33 calls are $1, 10 in the WCP for a weekend play unless we make .50 or better today. 


  65.  What’s up with the sudden dive in the euro - 
    European market closings?


  66. ZZ – "L’Emile" – ok.


  67. Savi – you here today?


  68. Hmmmmm…..wonder why they’re running up the dollar.
     
    Maybe they’re going to give a a total Friday meltdown to really screw with the traders.  Cramer and the boys will be cryin.


  69. Phil,GNW/WCP
     
    so we hold the 5/7.5 BCS the Short 6 put and add the short 6 call? Sorry learning so trying to get an understanding as oppossed to closing out ?
     
    Lastlly, the high today for dec 6 calls is .94 so not sure if I am clear what it is you are actually suggesting placing a higher limit order? TIA


  70. Just looking to post that article JRW  :)


  71. Phil I have a problem.  I love the reports and general market analysis.  But I am on the West coast and schedule does not allow me to see most of your trade ideas for the morning until they are already obsolete on entry points.  And frankly I do not still understand some of your jargon on buying selling complex setups.  Do you have a managed portfolio?


  72. Phil, what could happen if CONservatives block the IMF bailout?
     
    Time to break out my favorite republican yule time tune….
     
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nzXKWKaxt3c
     
     
    :)


  73. JRW – How would you rate this week in terms of difficulty?  For me it’s been a challenging week from a technical perspective.


  74. JR/IWM
     
    That’s a big gap between .14 and .61, are you using R1 for a bounce?


  75. stjeanluc / BackScanner
     

    I do, but that came from Cobra’s site; he’s probably the best stat guy out there and often finds scenarios that I wouldn’t think of !!


  76. Was the market counting on the IMF to bail out Europe?  Is this really an issue?


  77. USO/Yodi – No, I still like the puts.  2 weeks left and just a bit out of the money with oil still unrealistic at $100, which is not all that high considering all the "good" news.  

    Speaking of good news – the Dollar just popped a full 1% and barely dinged the market so either there’s going to be hell to pay this afternoon or we’re decoupling.  

    Good article RPME.  

    YRCWD/Smala – See above, too soon. 

    AA/StJ – I think, given the uncertainty, selling the 4 $9s for now for weekend protection and then we can roll them to 10 $10s if we head higher.  

    Blind determination/ZZ – I don’t know about that.  I think that, if you speak to these "determined" people, you’ll find that, although they may not be classically intelligent, IQ-wise, they are, in some way, "clever."  People’s brains are differently abled – my brother, for example, is just as smart as I am but in a completely different way.  He has a photographic memory with near-perfect recall and I can’t remember anything but facts and figures (people, places, times, dates are all very vague to me) while he is terrible with facts and figures.  So he ends up running a car dealership, a people business and I sit at a computer all day.  We’re both successful because we had the OPPORTUNITY to find the right careers for ourselves but, had we been poor kids and NEEDED the first jobs we took, maybe we never would have switched careers over and over until we found our niche.  Perhaps we’d both be sitting on an assembly line somewhere doing a good job 40 hours a week and considering ourselves well-off within our own community.  Luck plays a huge part in success – no matter where you come from and you can be the most determined farmer in all of Iowa but that’s not likely to make you a millionaire in a single generation.  

    LOL – As soon as Obama mentions what pricks the Republicans are, CNBC cuts away! 


  78. jcaesar / Difficulty

    As I posted yesterday, I haven’t seen any real profit since Monday; unusual for me !!

     

    exec / Bounce

    If you look at the 3 minute chart, you will see that I got out at 10:30; we are bouncing on the 200 SMA on the 1 minute and I’m looking to short on a break of ascendinding support at IWM 73.89 !!


  79. Phil, i tried to post earlier, by short term positions do you mean momentum positions or through DEC expiration?  Also I held on to the DEC 116P, thinking about DD if opp presents itself, but also think based on the tone in this forum that there may be a small correction soon.  Your thoughts, pls and thanks as always


  80.  FT markets live blog refers to "The latest plot to persuade the IMF that the EFSF is a country", lol.


  81. Phil TLT..any number of reasons for TLT to move…banks… keeping it simple points to QE…


  82. IRBT – Here’s a product I have come to live.  I know that’s not enuf to invest – and will begin digging in.  But any quik insight among u aces?  Thanks.


  83. IRobot – Love – not live.  But it does seem to live too.


  84. Minister: Japan corp governance on par with US
     
    "Economy Minister Yukio Edano defended Japan’s corporate governance practices Friday amid an ongoing accounting scandal at Olympus Corp. that has tainted the country’s image.
    ….
    The scandal has prompted criticism that Japan lags far behind other advanced economies in its corporate governance standards, or the rules and processes by which businesses are operated and controlled.


    ‘To say that Japan has no corporate governance is going too far, way to far," Edano said. "Historically, looking at past cases related to corporate governance, Japan is at least at the same level as the U.S. or even better, in term of effort and results.’"
     
    I agree with Edano.  I see Japanese corporate governance as pretty much on par with the U.S.  M.F. Global and their $1.5 billion theft of deposit money immediately comes to mind as a recent example — and the mainstream media didn’t so much as bat an eye at it.  Meanwhile the Olympus scandal is being reported everywhere in Japan.  Which is a big reason why the stock market is down so much over there.
    I am glad this stuff is coming to the surface as suspicion of corrupt management has always been one of the arguments against investing in Japanese companies, and this is part of the healing process as we finally remove the smog of taint from what are otherwise fundamentally good businesses with good balance sheets.


  85. jcaesar / Europe

    Yes, only 2 tools available:

    1) We fund the IMF and they bail out Europe

    2) The FED starts buying European sovereign debt as I posted last week


  86.  Phil: You’re right, of course — intelligence is not white rice.  It is inseparable from "character" or "personality."  These are conventions of speech, not truth.  Emotional setup – "EQ" is part of that — some people enjoy risk, others don’t, which arguably has more influence on business success than anything else, given the variable of "luck".   What’s your "EQ", in your estimation?


  87. AA Money – Selling 4 Dec 9 Calls (now 1.05) 


  88. FYI, ZH has posted two entries in the last two days reporting explosions at Iranian implying attacks at nuclear facilities.


  89. Phil sorry that USO is due today
    USO/Yodi – No, I still like the puts.  2 weeks left and just a bit out of the money with oil still unrealistic at $100, which is not all that high considering all the "good" news.  


  90. Nice call JR


  91.  


  92. JRW – Ok, but there is a third option that would deal with the whole national solvency issue, which is indirectly causing European banks to have problems.  The ECB could do what normal central banks do and buy their nation(s)’s debt.  Otherwise known as monetizing the debt.  That would make your first two options unnecessary, in my view.


  93. JR,
     
    Bounce?


  94. Financials still strong, Phil, I am in the biggest cash position of the year, if we go negative, would you buy for a stick at the end of day?


  95. Phil – "… I can’t remember anything but facts and figures (people, places, times, dates are all very vague to me) …"
     
    Q: Did you ever inhale (GWB – "youthful indiscretion") or are you now setting up a legal defense? ;-)


  96. TOS/Doro – I don’t know for sure what their official policy is and they won’t write it down but I’d let one very small one go and see how they treat you as an experiment.  

    QCOM/Crussell – You’re welcome!  Well, they are at $55 and the spread is out of the money and all premium and 5 day’s ago you were $10 out of the money so, unless you are willing to put more money in this and go longer – I’d be happy with the small loss.  As it stands, the $60s (.55) will almost certainly expire worthless (no more earnings catalyst to take them up 10%) so you could pull the $55s ($2.45) and take a chance with the open calls or you could take the $2.45 and roll out to the April $52.50/57.50 bull call spread at $2.60, which gives you a better chance of success and covers your caller a bit more.  

    EDZ/TraderM – As you know, this thing can move VERY fast but you can sell the $18 calls for $2.50 and spend that money to roll yourself down to the $13s and then you are in a $5 spread that’s 100% in the money with the extra short caller you can put a stop on at, say $1.50 (now $1.05).  That’s aggressive, of course – I still believe in EDZ as a good hedge but always know what your adjustments can be so you know if you are getting too far off track to roll. 

    Conservatives Anti-IMF/JRW  - I’m telling you, they are simply paid to kill the market rallies whenever GS needs them to.   How many times do they "coincidentally" have to wreck the markets with some insane action before people catch on???

    GNW/WCP, Sage – NO!  We bought back the $7.50 calls a while ago and left the $5s naked.  If you didn’t do that, you may as well leave the spread you have and also they are Jans, not December, my date mistake.  


  97. jcaesar / monetizing the debt

    If Germany was going to allow that it would have happened already !!


  98. Phil – People tend to remember things that interest them (on a conscious or subconscious level).  You like facts and figures, pay attention to them, and thus remember them.  It’s also your brain’s way of conserving it’s resources for what it finds important.   


  99. JRW – Good point (about Germany).  They certainly don’t like the idea!


  100. exec / Bounce

    "Kiss goodbye"


  101. JRW / IMF — 3) All of the above: the Fed buys European debt from the IMF 8) 


  102. kallanjr / Iran — Images Show Devastation at Iran Base After Blast
     
     “It was pretty amazing to see that the entire facility was destroyed,” Paul Brannan, the report’s author, said Tuesday in an interview. “There were only a few buildings left standing.”


  103. Thanks I must have missed the selling of the 7.5 calls. Sitting tight, some of these options plays are a little more cerebral…but trying to learn…can’t come quick enough


  104. err buying of the 7.5 calls…see we all mistype:)


  105.  Is there a way for me to post an interesting screenshot?  I could email it to someone.


  106. Managed/Tangled – We’ll be discussing setting up a Berkshire-style investment company over the weekend, coincidentally!

    Con-Block/1020 – How are they going to get a veto-proof majority?  

    While on the Christmas subject – here’s a good one from Bill Maher:

    IMF/JC – It’s more an issue of fear of Congress blocking the Fed somehow too but sure, the IMF was supposed to be forking over about $1Tn in loans and we contribute about 30% of their budget.  

    No profit/JRW – That’s because if you wake up after 6am EST, you miss all the action. 8-)  

    IMF/ZZ – ROFL! 

    TLT/Kustomz – Or it was a great early indicator of people panicking into the Dollar!   

    IRBT/NF – They are an old favorite from the Great Crash, when they fell to $7 – we got out with a double but they  doubled again since – a really great company and most likely to create the first Terminator killing machine!  


  107. Anyone notice lately that /DX has been sticky on the 0.20′s rather than the 0.25′s? Today’s action is a pretty good example. I seem to remember it being sticky at the quarters in the past. Guess they must have tweaked the bots.


  108. rdn4evr / screenshot — you could post it to google docs (if you have an account), make it public then post a link.


  109.  A comment I located on the U.S. unemployment numbers:  "The improvement in the unemployment rate is deceiving. The labor force fell a whopping -315k. This accounted for about half of the improvement in the u-rate. This is a function of discouraged workers heading for the doors, likely due to lack of opportunity. Also consider that the average duration of unemployment rose to a new record high of 40.9 weeks."


  110. IRBT – Okay, then.  With your "permission" I am going to try to craft either a discount accumulation plan – or figure out a long bull call spread + short put trade.  Naturally, if you’re feeling like throwing a play out there, I would always run wit dat!  Thx.


  111. EDZ/Phil, you wrote "spend that money to roll yourself down to the $13s and then you are in a $5 spread that’s 100% in the money". I need more guidance to apply what you said. i have the jan EDZ 17/27 bcs. Which strikes do i need to change?thanks


  112. Is anyone aware of a search ability of past trade recs on the site without going through day by day rereading them all?


  113. Phil on the investment company you can make it really easy and keep costs down (no need to calculate taxes for example) if you use the Ameritrade linked accounts.  You set up a master account and then others link their accounts to yours.  You make a trade and it automatically makes the same trade in the linked accounts adjusting for the scale of each account.  The account owner can see every trade you do and they have all the tax info in their account at year end.
    Emmanual Dossetti uses it if you want more detail.  Don’t know if there is a practical upper limit on linked accounts though.


  114. tangledweb – I think Phil is referring to a Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) type of investment …


  115. Doro,
    My experience with ToS on options that expire ITM is that they get exercised. It was always my mistake in my case in that I should have exited the position before end of trading on expiration day. I think they do have an order type that will ensure the position is exited before close – perhaps that is what you are looking for (or call them and arrange to have it sold before close – that you do not want to have it exercised). Hope I understood your question…
    -ken


  116. On why politicians don’t care about the intricacy of the job numbers but care only about the 8.6%:

    http://pmcarpenter.blogs.com/p_m_carpenters_commentary/2011/12/86-is-86.html

    That is, this class of voters will likely neither know nor much care why the unemployment rate dipped from 9.0 to 8.6 percent (significantly, because more than 300,000 jobless Americans ceased looking for work); they’ll only know, and care, that the unemployment rate plummeted to a more acceptable percentage and that it remains, for now at least, headed in a more agreeable direction.

    It’s only fair. For nearly eight solid years George W. Bush benefited from the American electorate’s burrowing ignorance. It’s about time Barack Obama got a piece of that action. 


  117.  Phil,
    I sold a bunch of XLF puts a month ago on your advise.  THANK YOU.  What is your current outlook?  How far do you think they might run in the next few months?
    And do you like the big boys better than the regionals?


  118. Thanks Rainman.  Just in case anyone isn’t tired yet of comparisons to 2008:   https://docs.google.com/open?id=0BxNl1ufUs7I6ZTJkN2RkNzAtYjU2Mi00ZTNjLWIxMGMtZDIzYmIyMTliOTRi


  119. Diamond I got that.  Just throwing out another option (no pun intended).


  120. This method does not need the corp structure or tax structure of a Berkshire type, just a consent letter.


  121. FRANKFURT (MarketWatch) — The International Monetary Fund on Friday said European officials are discussing potential bilateral loans to the institution that could be used to fund euro-zone bailouts. "European authorities — like some other IMF member countries — are exploring bilateral loans to the IMF," as noted by Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker on Nov. 29, said IMF spokesman Gerry Rice in emailed comments. Such loans "could indeed come from member-country central banks, and indeed these central banks are already lending to the Fund under the New Arrangements to Borrow and bilateral agreements since 2009," he said. A news report earlier Friday said European officials are weighing a plan that would see euro-area central banks funnel as much as $275 billion in loans through the IMF.


  122. The Fall Guy:  Corzine is about to take the hit for all past GS sins.
     
    MF Global had been dipping into client funds for weeks before its failure – rather than just in its final days as had been previously reported – and the company’s bankruptcy trustee revealed that some customer money from the failed company will never be recovered. The trustee, James Giddens, wrote in a briefing document distributed to congressional officials that “even if he could recover everything that is at US depositories, there will be a shortfall in what MF Global management should have segregated at US depositories”. He has estimated the customer shortfall at $1.2bn. 


  123. Governance/Kinki – It’s all such a joke.  That’s why you need to just stay away from stocks if you even get a bad vibe from the management – there’s certainly no realistic oversight.  

    EQ/ZZ – I think that Rothstein clip sums it up for me.  I like to wait for an opportunity but then I’m pretty decisive when I see one and willing to take a risk.  I look at most risk statistically, not emotionally, which is why I’m so into cash management strategies in conjunction with trading as I never think I’m going to be right more than half the time and play accordingly.  

    Iran/Kallen – Rumor I heard is they have been rushing to finish work (due to the pressure) on a project and blew themselves up (non-nuclear) but are blaming "sabotage", of course.  I have heard nothing credible that points to an actual attack but it’s not out of the question that we have a James Bond out there somewhere causing havoc.  

    USO/Yodi – Weeklies?  Those were speculative – deader than a doornail now.  Those were $1 on Monday and .50 on Tuesday and .17 on Wednesday and .27 yesterday and zero today – at some point you have to pull the plug on trades that are expiring.  

    End of day/Rustle – No, I would buy flexibility over the weekend.  It’s still way too easy to panic the markets so why take risks when there’s even a 20% possibility of a Black Monday?  

    GWB/Diamond – I don’t even know what that is!  It’s not pot though, I asked my Mom once if I used to have a good memory and she said never – they thought something was wrong with me because I could barely recognize our own relatives (my mom also has incredible recall, especially for people).  To my mom and my brother, both my Dad and I seem handicapped but show either one of them a flow-chart and they don’t even know which way to hold the paper.  When I owned a large company, my COO would stand next to me at public functions and whisper to me who people were when they walked up to me.  She was fantastic at covering for me, as was my VP.  That’s why I like the blog format – in print, I can remember all of you but if I had to associate names and faces – no way…

    Conserving/JC – Yes, I’ve always thought of my brain like a hard drive.  Like I used to know the entire playing stats of every active major leaguer plus another 1,000 who were retired but now that’s all gone – replaced by the balance sheets of a thousand companies!  Phone numbers are funny for me – I can only remember about 10 and if I lean a new one, I forget one of the other ones – needless to say I despise changing numbers!  On the other hand, I remember every book I ever read to the point where I get no pleasure in reading things twice but I’ll watch a good movie or TV show (not many of those) twice because I like to watch all the background stuff I missed the first time but then I have no desire to see it again.  Unfotunately, I also remember every single thing I ever tasted (including where and when) – which causes me to like food way too much (Madeline has the problem too) but makes me a great person to ask where to eat!  

    78.73 – generally rejected at 78.80 and the markets are still holding up very well considering.  RUT back to 740 after a very profitable dip and those TZA calls topped out at $1.25 and now back to $1.10 but I still want to hang onto those for now.  


  124. YRCW – FYI: if you have open options position – it will be settles by cash.
    No shares assignment


  125. Phil – GWB = George W. Bush (with regards to his "youthful indiscretion" remarks).


  126. sorry for spelling mistakes


  127. Phil
    I can’t recall names either, I forget names before they step away on meeting, but I remember facts and figures forever. I found writting the name down helped some but not enough. Have you noticed people who say, "Hi there!", I bet they are the same.


  128. Pharmboy,
    I have been looking into the VRUS (Pharmasset Inc), and they have a buy out offer at $137, closing tentatively in January, trading at $129 right now, up from $70 on the news of the buyout.  I have read that there is a clause in the mac for the deal… where roche can walk if someone get very sick or dies during VRUS’s trials.
    What are you thoughts on this company?  Do you follow it at all?
    Thanks


  129. Brain Study….
    Wow! It took me a few seconds, but then I got the hang of it…
    I’ve seen this with the letters out of order, but this is the first time I’ve seen it with numbers.
    F1gur471v3ly 5p34k1ng?
    Good example of a Brain Study: If you can read this you have a strong mind:
    7H15 M3554G3 53RV35 7O PR0V3 H0W 0UR M1ND5 C4N D0 4M4Z1NG 7H1NG5! 1MPR3551V3 7H1NG5! 1N 7H3 B3G1NN1NG 17 WA5 H4RD BU7 N0W, 0N 7H15 LIN3 Y0UR M1ND 1S R34D1NG 17 4U70M471C4LLY W17H 0U7 3V3N 7H1NK1NG 4B0U7 17, B3 PROUD! 0NLY C3R741N P30PL3 C4N R3AD 7H15.
    PL3453 F0RW4RD 1F U C4N R34D 7H15.


  130. Phil,
    Google facial dyslexia. Lot’s of people have the problem to varying degrees. It’s really interesting, as those of us who can’t remember faces, tend to focus on hair or clothing, and use context to remember people, while people who remember faces seem to auto-focus on peoples eyes.


  131. Phil, how did you pick the 33 strike call for TZA? And how would you choose between a weekly and monthly on something like this? TIA


  132. Screenshot/Rdn – If you can put it on the web, you can just drop the link but, if not, you can send it to admin at phistockworld but I don’t want that to become a new job for Greg.. 

    DX/Rain – I think it’s usually 10s and not 5s.  

    Duration/ZZ – That’s an interesting point because we used to have 6M people who were out of work for 20 weeks and now we have 13M people who are out of work for 40 weeks – it’s a lot worse than it seems when you take that one factor into account. 

    IRBT/NF – Very risky with the possibility of defense cuts but I think automation is here to stay.  I play some of those on-line war games and these kids play day and night and they play on-line against anonymous opponents halfway around the World in live battle simulations and the kids play ladder tournaments and have rankings etc and I would say that the Government, if they wanted to – could drop about 100,000 bots on a battlefield and feed the simulations to these kids and they would decimate the enemy forces.  The games train the kids to use various weapons under various conditions with differently abled equipment and they have to deal with supply shortages and damage control and attacking overwhelming forces, etc.  - we have the best-trained army of remote-fighter in the World, bar none and – should we ever decide to fight a war that way – it would not be possible for our enemies to catch up as these kids have years of combat experience ahead of them.  

    Anyway, so IRBT is at $32.69 and lets say a budget cut whacks them back to $25, you can still sell the June $25 puts for $2 and buy the $20/25 bull call spread for $3.80 for net $1.80 on the $5 spread that’s deep in the money and your worst case is owning them at net $26.80 (18% off) with the upside being what would be a 10% gain on the stock if they just hold $25.  Since you have the $20 calls, break-even is way down at $23.40.  If IRBT starts outperfoming and goes over, say $35, then you have $3.20 in the bag and you can pick up the $30/40 spread for about the same and then you have another $6 to potentially gain.  

    EDZ/TraderM – Again, I said you COULD.  I don’t consider it urgent.  You could sell the $18 calls, now $2.60 and roll your $17 calls ($3) down to the $13 calls now ($5.70), which leaves you in the $13/18 bull call spread with the naked $27 caller at $1.05 and you should probably put a stop there at $1.50 to avoid problems or you could offer to roll them up to 1.5 $30 calls at $1 to put another .45 in your pocket and push the caller further away.  

    Canada/Kustomz – Yep, not sure how the EFSF or the IMF fixes that one.  And, as China said – "Hey, we have our own problems, man!"  

    Search/Sage – Sure, the wiki is great for looking up recent trade ideas by symbol.  

    Investco/Tangled – It’s not a fund, it’s a company that will make real investments INCLUDING stocks but the goal isn’t to churn trades every day.  

    And what Diamond said!  

    TOS/Kallen – We’re talking about in the money spreads, where they net out the two positions for you.  

    Ignorance/StJ – Truly bliss.  

    You’re welcome Peedle!   I still like XLF as the most undervalued sector.  I think I said above, $15 seems likely in the near future.  I think regionals should do well but I still prefer XLF or FAS to picking a bank – other than JPM or our beloved HCBK.  

    2008/Rdn – Looks like we’re right on track!  


  133. rooster – Very cool.  Glad I could read it!


  134. Dyslexics of the world untie!


  135. Short Term Buy Signal For S&P 500 Is Confirmed


  136. rooster – That was easy … what else you got? :-)


  137. Phil,
    Since it seems like today is EDZ adjustment day, could you please offer some guidance on how and when to roll a DEC 18/24 Call & 17 Put position (Entry 3.02/1.74 & 1.05)?  Thanks!


  138. IRBT – No shit?  These are the cats that make the little vacuum robot?  Thx for the play.


  139. Phil seems like churning trades every day is what you are so good at for high rates of return.   I do wish I could more readily take advantage of that but such is life.  I have never seen published numbers but I would guess your daily trading averages more than 50% per year and maybe more than 100%.  No Berkshire equivalent has ever done that.
    But you gotta do what you gotta do.


  140. Phil/con-block  Good point, though enough damage can be done with just "trying"…..


  141. Thanks Phil I was late to the WCP and GNW trade so perhaps you bought them back before I even entered, as I do not see it in the WIKI??
     
    That is a great tool though, I will be referencing there, as oppossed to asking you my inane questions


  142. JRW/500   Whew!  I’m glad you’re quoting PDP and not KAS_  
     
    :)


  143. Phil,
    I am amazed at the pictures, cartoons, video clips, etc you seem to be able to recall to emphasize the current point.
    -ken


  144. Anyone
    I wonder if this representative is influenced by his stock portfolio……Is he loaded up on US Treasury Bills?
     

    Conservatives craft bill to prevent IMF bailout of crumbling eurozone

    By Alexander Bolton – 12/02/11 06:00 AM ET

    Conservatives say they will try to block the International Monetary Fund from bailing out Italy and Spain, which they say could leave U.S. taxpayers with a huge bill. 
    Republicans on both sides of the Capitol complain that the Obama administration has refused to share details of what Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner is discussing with European leaders amid reports the IMF could intervene. 
    Sen. Tom Coburn (R-Okla.) says he is planning legislation directing the U.S. government to veto an expanded role for the fund.


  145. 1020 / KAS


  146. VRUS/Ging – I do, and the company is too expensive for me, so I am not interested in playing.  HCV has lots of players, and Vertex is the clear winner here and their market cap is 6B.  Meanwhile, JNJ/BMS team up for HepC as well, so I think GILD is WAY overpaying….but what do I know…???

     

    Thinking Phil….well, right now I am wrapping my head around all the data, and I tell you, next week could be the mother of all weeks.  Gold could be crushed, as the IMF will need to raise funds, which should just about do it for the market. WHY is TLT up?  Dollar?  Treasuries are to be sold next week…..I smell fish…and it is rotten in Denmark.


  147. YRCW/LoL – That sucks of them.  No wonder they tanked it.  

    GWB/Diamond – Oh man, I did do some of that last decade, I survived but my country was trashed!  

    Hi there/Shadow – Other than my Dad, I’ve never met anyone who admitted to being as bad as I am.  There’s an actual disease where people can’t associate people and faces – it’s some specific part of the brain.  I think sometimes some part of your brain needs extra space and it sacrifices something it thinks is less important.  Einstein had 24 of the exact same outfit so he wouldn’t have to think about what to wear…

    That’s interesting Rooster – can anyone NOT read that?  

    Faces/Sparky – Yes, possibly the fact that I’m nearsighted plays into it as well.  I’m like that for place too – I have a great sense of direction but if you ask me how to get somewhere, I don’t know the name of a single street.  When I first got my license at 16, I was driving for 2 years before I found out you were supposed to be able to read the names on street signs from a moving car – that’s when I got my first pair of glasses.  If people as me for directions I say things like – Get off the highway at exit 30 and then drive 5 minutes until you see a McDonald’s on the left and then make a right at the next street and then turn left at the blue house with the fountain and keep going until you see the brown house on the corner with the brick chimney and two satellite dishes…  Some people think I give the best directions and some people think they’re the worst – we all have our ways of looking at the World….

    TZA/2nifty – In that particular case, I was concerned with limiting damage if the RUT swung back up but still had a good upside and time to roll if we had to.  Since it was for the WCP, cost was also a factor as I don’t like to risk more than $500 on a trade (50% loss, in this case).  Another factor is the deltas.  The delta of the $33s is .29 and the deltas around it are ($29) .49, .43, .37, .33, ($33s at .29), .26, .23, .20 and .18.  SO – Assuming we go up $5, what do we gain?  We gain .29 + .33 + .37 + .43 + .49 = $1.91 BUT, to the downside, we lose .29 + .26+ .23 + .20 + .18 = $1.16 so we lose nearly half as much on a move against us as we gain on a move in our direction.  ALSO – TZA goes up, then the market is going down and the VIX increases and we likely make even more money as the premiums increase.  If TZA goes down, we also lose money fast due to premium contraction BUT the $38 calls are still .55 (down .45) as ultras tend to hold their value well, even far out of the money.  The $28s, on the other hand, are $2.30 so 45% loss on the $5 downside and 130% gain on the $5 upside.  Now you see why I don’t bother to explain the logic of every trade!  

    EDZ/Wappler – Now they are getting too close for comfort but the short $17s are fine (roll if you have to, of course).  Since we still want protection over XMas – the Dec $18s ($1.55) can be rolled to the Jan $18s ($2.55) for $1 and after the Dec calls expire worthless, you can sell whatever for another $1 or so and, if the Dec calls don’t expire worthless, then you’re still $6 in the money to them but with more time – worth the buck.  

    Trading/Tangled – Yes but you can’t do that with Billions.  In order to take things to the next level, we need to do something other than day-trading options.  


  148. russellb73/influence
     
    Captain Renault: I’m shocked, shocked to find that gambling is going on in here!


  149. Phil,
     
    MOS has been in a downtrend with $45 as the Oct low…
    What do you think of Jan ’13 $45 puts for $7.10. That’s about 50% on margin.


  150. So Conservatives don’t believe the EFSF is a country, either?  Blocking an IMF bailout of Europe?  That will do wonders for U.S./ EU relations.  I suppose it was inevitable that this would turns into a cat fight over the world’s dwindling credit.  I’ll have to think about that over the weekend, but generally, when there’s more demand than supply for something, the price tends to rise.


  151. Phil,
    Here’s hoping there’s no such thing as a dumb question…at 9:48am you directed us to move all short-term bullish positions to cash. The intent is clear. But are the Dec FAS call spreads ‘short-term’ and move to cash? Or shorter term such as QQQ weeklies?
    -ken


  152. Small caps are down in biotech land, so I stick to my guns…..JRWs short term by signal is just that…short shorts term.  bu bu bye.  Here we go!


  153.  Anybody actively trade markets in India?


  154. IWM 73.61: the big test; UP of DOWN from here !! (finger on the trigger)


  155. Phil / SCO – I hold the Dec 40 call.  already took out the 46 caller from the original spread.  should i leave this naked into next week or roll to jan and sell another caller.  Thx. 


  156. oil chugging on eod manipulation??


  157. IMF/HouseRepubs
    House Republican’s not only wnat to F**k up this country…. they must be bored at passing so much legislation to fix the problems in this country…….. Now, they feel a moral obligation to "FIX" the world….. Think of the increased fan base across the world they will be gaining in addition to their base constituencies…. 


  158. Hey JRW,
    How much do you know about du Plessis?


  159. vic55 / du Plessis

    I have been reading him for almost 3 years.


  160.  Are you guys seeing the phantom bars in TNA all the way down to 44.10?


  161. WCP/TLT
    Hi Phil,
    I’m trying to close out the TLT Dec 2 $121/119 bear put spread for $2, but not getting anywhere.
    Any idea what I might be doing wrong?
    Thanks


  162. Zipla, I closed it for $1.97


  163.  i zega,
    yes. don’t know what to make of them.


  164. Thanks Doro. Guess I was just being greedy.


  165. Have…….got……to ……keep……retail…….in …… a ……bit ….. longer!


  166. Interesting thoughts from optionMONSTER:
     
    Following winners and not the losers
     


  167. Ah,   and they were wondering who the next Buffet would be.


  168. Gold miners have been buried.  What is up….is it must come down.  We are now net 0 from yesterdays -20 or so move on the DOW.


  169. ISRG, wonder how much they depend on sales in Europe.


  170. GNW/Sage – Ah, that didn’t get picked up in the Wiki because it was initiated in the main post and the Wiki looks for comments where I says XXX/ to identify my comments on trades.  So the Wiki will only pick up trades that someone else asks about, unfortunately because then I say something like GNW/Sage but, if I just happen to decide to pontificate about insurance companies I like and then intiate a trade on GNW, the Wiki won’t see it.  Not a perfect system yet – we’re still waiting to get a Watson to run the site.  

    Oil Futures with yet another shorting opportunity at $101 – the gift that keeps on giving!  

    Amazed/Kallen – You wouldn’t be if you were my wife and knew I can recall all that crap but don’t know what size shoes she wears!  8)  

    Reps/Russell – It happens way to often not to be financially motivated.  Also, killing the payroll tax cuts but keeping the Bush cuts is insanity for the Reps when they are trying to fight off the OWS rhetoric.  They may as well all grow handlebar mustaches and wear black top hats and capes…  

    Treasures being sold next week/Pharm – SAY NO MORE!  

    MOS/Pyern – I don’t like the ag sector, especially Potash, which is neither rare nor hard to produce (30M tons currently out of estimated 10Bn ton reserves) – it is simply something with an irregular supply/demand profile so the prices spike up and down but, over time, it’s a cheap, low-margin commodity so essentially, the prices of the producers is random and moves on rumors and speculation with very little underlying fundamentals to call it a proper investment.   They fell from $160 (a Cramer Favorite at that price) to $20 in 2008 so, if you like to gamble, they are lots of fun and, at $20, they are almost worth the risk but I would hate to be stuck owning them at net $38.  

    Spreads/Kallen – If you mean the FAS Dec $48/55 bull call spread in the WCP, those are $6 and $7 is the best we’ll do so why wait?  With $3,000 in cash (5 contracts), I’m pretty sure we can find another way to make $500 over the next two weeks.  It would not be a terrible thing to hold the spread but be aware that FAS was $48 last Friday so you are risking $6 to make $1 and that was NOT the trade we originally signed up for.  

    SCO/Terra – I still have faith through next Wednesday inventories at least.  Don’t forget the pressure mounts as we get closer to rollover day. 

    TNA/IZega – 1:15 and 2:40 so maybe another big one at the close or MAYBE they are trying to flush out stops before taking it higher – hard to tell the intent with those.  

    TLT/Zip – The market maker is just messing with you.  At $118.19, the $121 puts are only at $2.77/2.88 but the $119 puts  are .73/.83 so you can ask for $2.85 on the $121 puts and offer .75 on the $119 puts and whichever one fills first let’s you know what you need for the other side.  They opened at $4.25 this morning and the puts were $2.20 – would have been great to sell the pop (as suggested and let the short puts fall but that’s more advanced trading. 

    Still 78.72 and, after all that nonsense today – we’re flatlining on our indexes… 


  171. JRW,
    I could be wrong, but from my recollaction he is the guy who does good in the trending Bullish markets. (Who doesn’t? :-) ) I don’t remeber a case where he was correct at the important juncture, unless I count his buy calls from November 08 to March 09, so the last one on March 9, 2009 was a good one.


  172. vic55 I stopped reading him a long time ago.


  173. MS is very strong today, after 10%+ gain over the last couple days, its up another 8% today. Interesting action specially compared to the broader market and even its own sector.


  174. hanna – I have been told by a trader to watch MS and GE together in tandem to see how the hedges are being put on.  Similar GS and CAT.  I am no expert at how they do it, but when they trade at parody and similar shares traded numbers, the moves b’w the two can be used to move the market, keeping thing propped.  Thus, GE should trade down to MS today or Monday……similar, GS should move to CAT as the Banks were extremely over sold…..


  175. OH, and GE is a bank for that matter, but they use them b’c of their ‘industrial’ type of liquidity…..


  176. Buying GE 16 Dec Ps for 31c.  Will DD at 20c.  Out at 10c if I am wrong…..


  177. WCP/TLT
    Thanks Phil,
    I see the light. Just sold the FAS Dec 48/53 position I had one leg at at time and did much better. Yay!!!!


  178. Cant remember the last time markets traded weaker against a stronger EUR.


  179. @Felipe
    re  Oil futures—are you closing the contracts at the end of the day or holding over the weekend? 


  180. Cool Zipla!  

    OK, I have to go take my kids to the town tree-lighting.  

    Hopefully the market doesn’t do anything crazy in the last 15 mins but, if it does – we have cash so who cares?  

    Have a great weekend everyone!

    - Phil


  181. Oil/Flips – If you aren’t sitting in front of the screen, they shouldn’t be open!   Way too risky over a weekend, that’s what USO and SCO are for. 


  182. Members/Migration
     
    For those who might be interested in statistics regarding migration away from the USA… go to americawave.com which is a webssite run by Bob Adams who I have followed for the past 2 years.  His company is the only firm who has compiled any statistics on this trend for the past 5 years.  Bob now lives (relocated) in Panama for the past 3 years and reocated from the DC area.  Bob had a very interesting career and has lived in about 42 different countries in his lifetime and seen it all…. He now is retired and offers insight to those wishing to relocate (no cost) just his experience, particularly in Panama…


  183. PS:
     
    Barron’s has followed him and just printed an article about his current findings….


  184. As stated above…bu bu bye….


  185. Pharm – interesting theory! I like it.
    I am actually adding to positions in MS stock and BAC calls. I still think they can both rally from here. were way too oversold. discounting entire portions of the MS franchise for EU fears. At the end of the day, there will still be a need for Ibanking services, wealth management, IPO, capital allocation, etc And, there is no one left in the game!

    As for BAC, i just think that with the US economy showing decent signs of stabalization they are OK. I also happen to think that QE3 will happen and it will be mortgage based, and people will flock to the money center banks to play that.


  186. hanna – FYI – this trader is VERY short financials….and I mean VERY short.  they may survive, but mid-term, he is expecting them to be whacked.


  187. He has been short MS since 2010 at $30.  Out at 12, but remains vigilant and will short more if they move up.  He is short GE currently….hence my GE trade.


  188. Wow.  How do "they" do that?  AAPL pin at $390 and GOOG at $620. 


  189. SPY at 125….until AH.


  190. JR – Do you see what I see, a star a star, falling from the sky….(those aren’t the words…but…..I see Monday down barring some rumor of the EU being fixed (not)…..


  191. phil whats htis youre trying to pass..with the tree lighting!…its a great event in all towns its funny they are trying to shut them down in a few towns here in ct as a christian symbol…too funny..


  192. @Felipe
    Thanks for that CL trade.  A quick $300.00 in 5 minutes.  Let’s see…..$300 times 12 = $3,600 per hour. Even Jim Carville may not make that much.


  193. Outta here… To do list this weekend:

    1. Update Money trade spreadsheet
    2. Add margin and premium calculation
    3. Post analysis of my FAS Strangle Experiment

    Have a good weekend everybody!


  194. SPY Chart – The hanging man formation on Wednesday needed follow through, but after 2 days, nothing.  Some say consolidation.  I say not. 10/27 shows a similar hanging man…and then down.  hanging man formations at the top of the trends usually mean reversals., as there is no follow through to the up side.  That candle says 120ish which could be the form for next weeks action…barring the EU not coming to agreement, and then it will go RIGHT through that 120 SPY 50d MA.


  195. stjeanluc – Thanks! Your work is appreciated!!!


  196. stj – thanks for the work. Looking forward to the analysis of FAS strangle.


  197. Diamond / Nicha – No problem. Just fun for me. I wish I didn’t have the damn day job! 


  198. pharm, yes i know many traders who are short financials. And, many of them have been right. i didnt really start buying BAC LEAPS/calls until 6 and MS until 13.5.
    the place i differ with them, is that i think these institutions are not dead, and the common stock will retain value. EU will patch something together to make sure markets (specially bond spreads) continue retreating.
    The one thing everyone understands after 2008 is that financial panics/crises can be self fulfilling. German and EU leaders realized how close they got to the precipice and are slowly backing off it. I just think as these "fixed" rumors come out of EU (and they will for the previous reasons) then the banks will reflexively bounce.
    thats when i exit! But, just in case, i will close my BAC if the stock breaches $5 for 2 trading closes. Or if MS breaches its prior lows.
    good luck!


  199. Tree Lighting / Relocation
    It’s funny to hear about tree lightings and snow and Christmas down here in Nicaragua where I’m sitting by my pool with the in the 80′s overlooking the ocean.  Sometimes the internet still amazes me at how close it brings disparate worlds.
     
    Regarding the relocation out of the USA, I can say that within the last month I’ve met more smart, educated and motivated people than I’ve met in the last two years living in San Fran.  Everybody is working on a project or development or book or something.  I think there is a small segment of Americans that realize maybe lifestyle they were sold, isn’t what actually brings joy.  
    But who the heck knows?!?!?  


  200. Pool was nice today when I was swimming laps here in DR.

    Seems like GOP is imploding. The way it is going the party may hardly exist at all after the next general election. It seems unlikely they can even put up a serious opponent and the general election may just be a victory parade for BO with many GOP seats lost.


  201. lflan- AAPL- good call today by the way. I saw that it bounced twice off that 393 line so I was paying attention. Sold my Dec calls and holding my Jan spreads. What does you magic 8 ball tell you now?



  202. From Sandy at EFT-Corner.  LOL


  203. pstas….AAPL….   Upward pressure on the stock for sure, but if the market pulls back for any reason then AAPL may pull back with it, since it’s had a nice recent runup.    I’m 1/4 in Dec monthly 370s and have some bull put spreads.  On Monday , if the markets look  VERYpositive I’ll likely come back in with some January 390s.  If the markets are wishy-washy I’ll probably sell some January bull put spreads, maybe 390/385s.      If the markets look negative I’ll just sit and watch for an AAPL retracement before making another move.   Incidentally, I’ve changed my trading strategy on AAPL recently to fit my "other job", at which I’m presently very busy.  So I’ve not recently tried to do large volume option day trades because I can’t sit in front of the computer all day.  But selling bull put spreads one month out brings in steady money, and the straight up calls purchased on a retracement bring in even more, with less watching required.  Good luck to you! 


  204. Iflan- AAPL- not sure I get the attraction on the bull put spreads? Could you explain your strategy and tactics? Thx.


  205. Burrben/Nicaragua
    Where are you located in Nicaragua.. ???  I would be interested in your opinions regarding the country…. since, I have read many differing opinions…….If you are interested, I can contact you at your email away from the PSW… Thanks.   My email is thecobra65@gmail.com


  206.  Jmm: You’ll get a kick out of this, then:  Mitt Romney will be hard to hate in the general for the same reason he is hard to love in a primary," said another Republican. "There isn’t much ‘there’ there, so the spotlight will gravitate to Obama. Romney makes it a referendum on Obama; Gingrich makes it a choice."
     

    "Winning the presidency is all about discipline, focus, and organization," said one Republican Insider, "none of which are strong suits for Gingrich."
     
    "With Newt, we go to bed every night thinking that tomorrow might be the day he implodes," said another Republican. "Not good for our confidence – or fundraising." A third Republican stated plainly, "Gingrich is not stable enough emotionally to be the nominee – let alone, the president."
     
    "Newt can’t take the scrutiny," agreed a Democrat, "and he has the personality of an angry badger."


  207. Former St. Louis Fed:


  208. FWIW from Cobra, and as I have been saying….bearish reversal…..


  209. GOP implode? Come on. Short memories. Recall the sterling Dem field of 08-- a well spoken community organizer who would likely still be a back bencher in the Illinois legislature if not anointed as an earner by the guys behind the guys in the Chicago political machine; A carpetbagging Senator from New York whose claim to fame was her stoic endurance during her husband’s dalliances; A gaffe prone Senator from Delaware; An ambulance chasing philandering sharpie from North Carolina; A moonbeam Congressman from Ohio and some guys from Alaska and New Mexico.
    Peter principle personified.


  210.  pstas….answering your 7:07 post……A bull put spread allows you to sell premium at a lower margin and at lower risk.   Example:   You can sell a Dec monthly AAPL 375/370 bull put spread for  $78.  Margin requirement is only $500 because you have "covered" the short 375 put with the long 370.   Now you can sell the 375 naked for $212, but the margin on this can be as much as $35,000, depending upon your broker and the type of acct you hold, among other things.    The yield on the bull put spread is 18% for the 2 week hold.  The yield on the naked put is less than 1%.   So if you construct these bull put spreads properly, you can safely rake in a lot of cash with minimal risk and with little necessity for watching the trade every day.   I could digress on this, but that’s the short explanation.  If you are interested in this I would be happy to set up a couple of actual trades with you for next week to show you how well this works for a stock like AAPL.  


  211. 47:40 We are just going to kill the dollar
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5V3kpKzd-Yw


  212. Zz/election

    If Romney wins the Christian voters stay home and if one of the 7 dwarves wins, then everyone stays home. Down ticket Republicans are slaughtered. QED.


  213. romney is a christian..but i have heard idiots well educated ones i might ad who have said that romeny will not win a single southern state coz he’s a mormon and these are southerners…hahahaha.. dems  underestimate gingrich at their peril…and of course the TRUMPeter in chief is going sponsor a debate for republican candidates..its not going to be pretty


  214.  <object width="512" height="288"><param name="movie" value="http://www.hulu.com/embed/vCCjgM7azlDO-ew2lRVkGw"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><embed src="http://www.hulu.com/embed/vCCjgM7azlDO-ew2lRVkGw&quot; type="application/x-shockwave-flash"  width="512" height="288" allowFullScreen="true"></embed></object>



  215. Angel/god

    Technically Mormons are Xns, but in the view of Evangelical and Fundamentalist theology the Bible is #1 and the doctrine of the atonement defines Christianity, so they perceive Mormonism as non Christian.


  216. Iflan- AAPL- OK, now I see it. Mental block. Yes, I would be interested in looking at some possible trades on Monday.
    Another way to look at this from a devils advocate view is this is the put end of an iron condor – a premium erosion play which can be lucrative but a nightmare to adjust in a rapidly falling market. If you sold these recently you did well not only because of the stock price run but the VIX decline.
    Another tool in the box. Let’s see what opportunities are presented on Monday.


  217.  pstas….You are correct.   Another tool in the box.  And this is a very important concept for option traders to learn.  You must adjust your trading methodology to the situation.  Different situations require different "tools" to allow you to trade with the maximum probabliitly of success.   I’m going skiing.!!!   Talk to you Monday and we’ll do an AAPL trade perhaps.  


  218. using the fundie christian’s definition none of us are christians except them..heaven is going to be harder to get into than augusta….but romney won’t win th enomination if he does he will kill the gop faster than they can do it without him



  219. 10:45 AM "We’re at an inflection point in history," says Loews’ (L) savvy investment chief Joe Rosenberg, comparing today’s equity market to Treasuries in the early 80s when he had trouble convincing folks to buy long bonds yielding 15%. One favorite is Microsoft (MSFT), a better buy by every metric than a recent purchase of Warren Buffett’s. Among his other picks: JNJ, MRK. A pan: Treasuries, "in the final throes of one of the greatest bubbles I have ever seen
     
    Hard to imagine not wanting T’s at 15% but back then, with inflation rampant- real estate, hard assets of all sorts looked so much more attractive. Of course, that was true only if you had money to invest which was very difficult with wages never catching up to inflation. 
    Once again, short Treasuries will be a monster trade when, not if, the worm turns.


  220. Rosenberg/pstas:  I like MSFT too, but in Feb. 2008, right before the gigantic crash, he thought Treasuries were terrible place to be and recommended stocks. In fact he recommended investing Social Security funds into the stock market.
     
    He also picked Fannie Mae as a good investment in Feb. of 2008. :D
     
    http://online.barrons.com/article/SB120311977865672785.html
     
    So BIG grain of salt.


  221. Kinki- right you are- take this with caution but it is always useful to consider what the old timers have to say if for no other reason than perspective. As to FNM and FRE? Gosh, I made a boatload on them way back when and had been scaling out but got stuck with my last 200 shares, now worthless. Still came out way ahead.
    All the great ones make boneheaded moves. Just reinforces common sense on position sizing and diversification. On T’s, these yields will not last forever but it may seem like it.


  222. pstas: Oh definitely.  Its just that his call in 2008 was so bad that its the first thing I think of when I see his name, hehehe. He is recommending many of the same companies that Phil is — good blue chip value stocks, including Staples. And he is echoing Buffett when he calls the current market a buying opp.
    But then again, he’s advising to stay away from banks though because he got burned so bad the last time, so that is a departure from what Phil has been saying who sees them as the most undervalued sector.


  223. Kinki- I agree with both on banks. They are undervalued but for good reason. Other than reputation and history, how do you value them? I have made efforts in the past to understand their financial statements but it is akin to translating ancient Sanskrit. Besides, even what you may know today may change dramatically down the road- the derivatives are , to me, mind boggling. I was all over BAC a few years ago at $3 or $4 / share but today? No doubt there are excellent trading opportunities in this sector but longer term? No thanks, there are many far less risky opportunities.


  224. Hey guys! I’m at the Garden State Plaza and it’s a madhouse! Time for another PSW Holiday Shopping Survey, I believe.

    Also, I’m reminding myself to put a post up re the holding company idea.


  225. Naples--Marco island —people shopping like crazy  —and hotels full—fwiw


  226. lflantheman / AAPL
    Have you ever followed this group?  They seems to focus on AAPL a ton, and Phil posted a article this week that "they were never wrong about a price target"
    http://bullishcross.com/apple/
    I’d also love to focus on some AAPL trades. I think I want to start learning a few stocks inside and out, rather than trying to focus on a large mass.  I don’t know how Phil can keep all of the companys and ETF’s straight.   
     
    PS:  In Nica, prices are falling fast.  Lots of speculation about 5-7 years ago.  Places that were bought for $175 are selling for $90.


  227. pstas:  Bad assets on the books of banks.  What else is new eh?  We might not know just how much is on the books, but I think most people (like Rosenberg) agree that its probably really bad. 
    I guess Phil’s reasoning is that the bad debt issue is priced-in.


  228. LOL Kinki…..priced in…ha!….we ain’t seen nutin’ yet.

     

    China non-manufacturing data…..oops.



  229. IFLAN/AAPL bull put spread:
    put me on your list for suggestions next week. Thanks


  230. Anyone have experience buying or selling shares on, before or after the ex-dividend date? Double checking that selling on the ex date will not exclude you receving the dividends.


  231. Phil, are you still going to post your thoughts on the holding company?  I’m looking forward to see what kind of ideas you are putting together.


  232. Good evening!  

    Weekend did not work out like I planned but finally getting a chance to sit down and catch up!  

    For no reason at all (that I see) the futures gapped up at the open (6pm) – not even a big move down in the Dollar (78.65) and oil popped to $101.50 but no reason for that either.  To scary to short, though. 


  233. It seems like everyone here seems to feel strongly about how weak the market fundamentals are(minus the possability of stimulus/easing).   This volatility has been mind blowing and the universal political incompetence is mind numbing.  The thing that I don’t understand and someone please help me here - was last tuesdays 23rd hour deal the actual start of the hyperinflation cycle to come(or the green light to fire up the presses) and this is the final shake out?  What \’s the deal with the new new deadline for this wednesday.  After last week how can thier be a" free market" correction based on the actual fundementals?  Why save it last second then let it roll over five sessions later?  I’m confused.


  234. Tree lighting/Angel – It’s a big event in my town, I’d say almost every single parent with young kids are there along with a lot of the older townspeople – it’s very nice.  Big party with cookies and hot chocolate and hot apple cider and Santa arrives on the fire engine passing out candy and then every one gets a picture with Santa – all for free.  Well not free, our property taxes are insane but it’s nice that it’s all done without any ugly charging people – a lovely example of Communism making a community happy!  

    $3,600 an hour/Flips – As impressive as that is, keep in mind that Bill Gates ($50Bn) collecting just 3% interest on his money at $1.5Bn a year, makes $17,123 an hour, 24 hours a day, 7 days a week and, if he is not taxed, he will have $90Bn in 20 years – even if he doesn’t do anything else but allow his wealth to accumulate.  

    Without an inheritance tax, he can pass that $90Bn on to his children who, by the year 2,100 (70 more years) will have accumulated $712 by just sitting on their assets.  

    Of course, they will have "earned" that money and, assuming it’s an amount that keeps up with inflation and grows 3% over it – it’s a relative amount.  

    In 2,100, Bill Gates II passes the money along to Bill the 3rd, who passes it along to Bill the 4th (OK, maybe they spend a Billion here and a Billion there to buy some stuff and create a couple of jobs) and, before you know it, it’s 2,200 and the Gates family has $5.6Tn in cash and effective rule the planet Earth thanks simply to low taxation and lack of inheritance tax that allows wealth to accumulate over generations rather than being redistributed to the general population – at least in part.   

    If only were were clever enough to have had polices like this 200 years ago – we would, even now, be ruled by the Rothchilds or some other hyper-wealthy family and – oops, I guess we are!  

    Anyway, my original point is that $3,600 an hour is very good money but there are many people on the Forbes 400 list who do better than that in their sleep.  

    Are they creating jobs or destroying them for everyone else?  

    GOP – Newt topping Iowa polls by the way.  Interestingly, he was born in Harrisburg, PA – now known as the first US capital to go bankrupt.  He was officially disciplined and fined by a Republican House in 1997 for ethics violations (84 of them!) and resigned in 1998 despite having been re-elected in his district (Georgia).  In his resignation speech, Gingrish said: "I’m willing to lead but I’m not willing to preside over people who are cannibals."  

    That, of course, didn’t prevent him from becoming a very effective Republican Lobbyist (ethics, what?) and, apparently, 23 years later – it doesn’t stop you from becoming President, either.  Nor does turning 70 in 2013 even though he acts kind of senile already.

    Not many people know this but Newt is a highly paid film producer.  He solicits donations for Gingrich Productions to produce films for conservatives (three on religion, one on energy, one on Reagan (always a winner) and one on the threat of radical Islam – all made in partnership with Citizens United.  The "company" has 5 employees and Newt got a $2.4M salary just for that part-time job last year but it’s his wife’s company – he’s just a paid consultant.   

    Newt’s big money is still made as the leader of The Center for Health Transformation which, interestingly enough, actually lobbies NOT to make any changes at all to Health Care other than uncapping fees and capping lawsuits.   He did help to get the Medicare D thing passed, adding $3Tn to our National Debt (so far).  As another hobby, Newt likes to talk.  In fact, he’s so good at it, he gets $60,000 for showing up and talking somewhere and, last year, 80 groups were loopy enough to pay for that privilege ($4.8M).  

    I’ve gotta get on this Conservative bandwagon.  Democrats are idiots, they just show up and talk to people in exchange for a dinner!  Make the right noises for Conservatives, on the other hand, and the’re willing to overlook the graft, the corruption, the womanizing (hey, he’s not gay! – not that there’s anything wrong with that..) and the pure, all-consuming greed (probably considered a big plus) and they will just shower you with cash!  


  235. Sorry, after watching the last video I can now see where every Dollar spent by Conservatives went into the high-quality production values (and his wife’s make-up) and was not a scam at all to funnel money into Newt’s pockets – gosh you Conservatives are smart spenders!  8)  

    Big Chart – Well, big rejection by the Dow at 12,170 and NYSE and RUT both on the Must Holds so, again, we need to make those levels before we begin buying again.  Notice in early October, we had a similar quick run, big stick and then a week or so of consolidation prior to the next leg up – if we get more of the same next week – we can get bullish looking for that big Santa move to finish the year off with a bang. 

    Don’t forget, one thing that aligns almost every broker and fund’s interest is having a good market number for the year.  People forget a lot of things but being able to show that stocks were up 7-10% the year before is the key to getting millions of people to hand over hundreds of Billions of Dollars next year and, other than from the Fed, where else are they going to get that kind of cash?  

    1,250 on the S&P is about where we started this year so anything less than 1,300 is going to look lame – especially compared to Euro-bonds.   Again, think about it from the perspective of the average American couple sitting down with their Financial Planner a few years from now as he computes the best prior returns in order to make current investing decisions (I know, that in itself is idiotic but that’s the game).  None of the Gang of 12 want stocks to look like a losing investment but, of course, Bill Gross does so we need to watch the players as they make their end-game moves this month.  

    Nicaragua/Burr, Acobra – Hey I’m VERY interested in hearing about living in other countries and I’m sure many people here are too so let’s not get into the habit of discussing interesting things privately – much more fun if we all share – especially on weekends.  

    Newt/ZZ – Good point, he’s an accident waiting to happen while Mitt is "safe" and, logically, if he can be elected in Mass, then he can be elected Nationally.  In fact, you can certainly look at Mitt’s job in Mass and say he came in with a huge deficit ($3Bn) and balanced the budget by the end of his term and passed sweeping Health Care Reform.  Romney went to Stamford and got a law degree AND an MBA from Harvard.  Why this guy isn’t the slam-dunk nominee is amazing to me – I might actually vote for him!  

    Hillary/Pstas – Unlike Rep Candidates, Hillary was actually Re-elected by her constituents.  She went to Wellesly, graduated Yale Law and worked as a Congressional Legal Counsel in the early 70s, chaired the Legal Services Corporation, was a partner at a law firm in Arkansas and was on the board of directors for Wal-Mart as they grew to become one of the World’s largest corporations – creating millions of jobs (crappy jobs, but jobs).  After that, she became First Lady and spearheaded National Health Care Reform, which was blocked by morons so we now pay 400% more for health care than we did in 1994 already.  

    Despite being attacked constantly by knuckle-dragging Conservatives, she did manage to set up the State Children’s Health Insurance Program, saving the lives of thousands of kids every year and she also passed other very important family legislation to protect children that I’m sure makes her "weak" in your eyes.  As the first female Senator in New York’s history, as I said, she did well enough to handily be re-elected by a wide margin.  

    The fact that you boil that down to "A carpetbagging Senator from New York whose claim to fame was her stoic endurance during her husband’s dalliances" makes YOU a joke and someone who’s opinion we should obviously place no value in.  When I look at Romney, I can see a good and qualified man, even though I may not agree with his positions and even though he’s not in my party – you see NOTHING outside of your established prejudices – it’s simply a waste of time to read what you think about things other than something of sociological interest.  

    Bass/Kustomz – Of course we’re going to kill the Dollar but everyone else is killing their currency too (except Japan because the Yen just will not die). 

    Romney/Angel – His campaign should buy everyone tickets to "The Book of Mormon" – while making fun of Mormanism – it’s actually a generally nice portrayal of the religion and it’s people.  


  236.  Japan lacks the imagination to kill their currency too, despite having the worst demographics among developed countries.  I feel for them; they need to get with the program, unless they think they can sell $200,000 Land Cruisers [I was recently quoted $150,000 for a new one in a rather kleptocratic country.]
     
    Newt:  He may seem like an angry badger, but deep down he’s thoroughly humanistic:  http://articles.latimes.com/1994-12-25/opinion/op-12904_1_family-values


  237. Next Tarp Model/ITrade – That one is a classic.  

    Good EU list Kustomz,. thanks.

    15%/Pstas – Actually the smart move would have been to sell those homes that were up 500% in 10 years and put the profit into the 15% 10-year notes while switching to rentals but the extrapolators have the ball and when rates go from 9 to 12 to 15 pecent (and they did spike to 18%) then people start thinking 15% isn’t going to be enough for the next decade.  It’s very hard to choose the middle path.  

    Banks/Kinki – I think that Citibank could be "wiped out" tomorrow but, as long as they don’t close, then they are still a company that holds $2Tn in deposits and can make "just" 1.5% on the lending spread, which is $30Bn or about 1/2 their current total revenue.  Of course if that’s ALL they did (be an actual bank), they wouldn’t need half of their people or facilities and they’d probably make a very nice profit vs. their current $82Bn market cap so I think owing C or BAC here, as long as you are willing to DD and TD and QD if they get back to $1 or less – is not a bad LONG-TERM thing to do.  As I have said though, I’m more comfortable with the index – investing in the general 5,000 year-old concept of banking continuing for another decade or two – rather than picking a specific bank, other than JPM who seem to me to be most worth the risk with a p/e of 6.5 and a 3% dividend while you wait to see what they do with their $2Tn.  

    Dividends/Pak – You have to check the rules, sometimes you need to be owner of record at the close of that day.  

    Holding Co/Joel – Absolutely but first I need to gather my thoughts and they are not all there tonight, hopefully in the morning if the markets are not too crazy.  

    Confusion/Joel – We’re all confused when Central Banks start intervening to divert Global Economic Cycles that may not be under their control.  China can, for example, dam up one of the World’s largest rivers in a project that was initiated 100 years ago because they made a concentrated effort over a very long period of time to get it done.  The US, on the other hand, still hasn’t properly rebuilt the levy’s in New Orleans because our attention span isn’t even 100 hours – even for a major disaster.  

    Europe is somewhere between China and the US, both Geographically and politically and you can Centrally Plan your way out of almost anything but our own ADD-affected investing public doesn’t have the patience for it and prefers to call everything a "crisis" and set constant, arbitrary deadlines even though each additional round of funding is absolutely nothing in the scope of the EUs $18Tn annual economy.  

    To worry about Greece, Italy, Spain. Portugal, etc., who are currently running deficits of less than $20Bn a month total, when the US had to sell $37Bn worth of 7-year notes last week is ridiculous.  In medicine, there is such a thing as triage and doctors know it is not an effective use of their time to treat things that can be put off.  Just because the media screams that this is a crisis or that is a crisis, doesn’t mean the Central Bankers need to play along.  They do, however, end up bowing to political pressure as the voters (and, much more importantly, campaign contributors) are whipped up into a frenzy and that’s how we end up lurching from crisis to crisis.  

    As to "free markets" – we haven’t really had that since we left the gold standard in 1972 so now is not really the time to start complaining about it.  

    Land Cruiser/ZZ – Wow, that’s quite the mark-up!  I hope it was at least armored…


  238. Hey this is funny.  Curious guy that I am, after noticing that Ellis Island is prominently displayed in that picture from Newt’s wife’s book and that the elephant is also named Ellis, I wanted to find out more information so I went to http://www.Ellistheelephant.com and, I wish I could say to my surprise but I’ll say instead – typical of all form and no substance Conservative BS con jobs perpetrated against anyone they can tap for cash – even the web site is barely  a front with mostly broken links.  BUT, not where it asks you to give them your money – that part works perfectly, especially where you can have Mrs. G personally autograph a copy hot off their home printing press for a few extra bucks.   On AMZN, people who bought this book also bought Dubs Goes to Washington: And Discovers the Greatness of AmericaOur 50 States: A Family Adventure Across America 

    OK, that does it, I’m going Conservative.  Someone write a book and a movie and make some posters and buttons and I’ll use tomorrow’s BNN interview to launch our new web-site called "The Conservative Investor", which will be "A Stock Market Web Site for Right-Thinking People" – Not only will we make a killing, but I’ll probably be able to run for President as a GOP candidate in 4 years!  


  239.  I’ve had two houses in Utah for over 20 years.  It is at or near the top of fiscally prudent states. It’s efficient and well-run, public services are excellent, and it’s politics relatively harmonious. No one has ever asked my faith. Hating the LDS church by "Fundamentalists" or "Evangelists" or anyone else whom doesn’t share their privileged revelations is par-for-the-course Christian behavior.
     
    If most Christians followed even a fraction of  Christ’s teaching, the appalling centuries of slaughter and torture in the name of Christ might have been avoided.   What was it that the papal legate said to Simon de Montfort before he razed Carcassone to exterminate the Cathar minority in Languedoc?   [Also Christians?] "Kill them all, God will recognize his own."  Before condemning Islam, consider that Christianity, 600 years ago — the distance between their founding — was a damned sight less tolerant.

     


  240. Conservative / Phil – There are requisite steps to turn conservative candidate:

    1. Cheat on your wife
    2. Divorce her
    3. Re-marry (preferably younger and rich)
    4. (Optional) Cheat on second wife
    5. (Optional) Divorce second wife
    6. Make tons of money lobbying for companies that you disparage in public
    7. Show no conviction and a willingness to change your opinion based on the demand of your base
    8. Cynically ignore scientific data based on political donation from your corporate overlords
    9. Preach your love of the constitution while looking to disenfranchise large swath of the population
    10. Make bigger display of your religion (unless you are a Mormon)

    If you can deal with this list, you are good to go. Personally, I could go only compromise on #3, although I would have to overcome #1 and #2 and that could be problematic!
     


  241. Cathars / Zero – The massacre happened in Beziers if I remember my history well. Actually, my family history as my mother’s side is from the Albi region, the HQ of the Cathar religion! But a region also briefly crossed by Muslim armies before they were defeated by Frankish armies at Poitier earlier. I might have both bloods… 


  242. Speaking of Christians Zero, here is John Danforth, former GOP Senator:

    DANFORTH: What have been the big applause lines in these debates? Well, a statement that the governor of Texas is responsible for killing 234 people on death rowOr that we favor tortureOr that we’re creating a fence on the Mexican border that electrocutes people when they try to cross it. Or when people show up at the emergency room at hospitals and they’re not insured don’t treat them. And that, I mean these are the big applause lines, people just hoop and holler when they hear all that. [...]

    It doesn’t have anything to do with the republican party that I was a part of. This is just totally different. And all of these people who are saying this, y’know, and claiming that, y’know, they’re for all this stuff, they also sort of ostentatiously say, “Oh, we’re very religious people. We really, we’re just very pious, Christian people.” They were for torture, and electrocution of the people on along the border and all of that. That doesn’t have anything to do with, is contrary to the Christianity that I understand.

    That’s another thing to add to the list Phil – pro-torture 


  243. And 2005 Jean-Claude Juncker former PM of Luxembourg explained the politician conundrum quite clearly:

    We all know what to do, but we don’t know how to get reelected once we have done it.


  244. Phil, please accept my sincere apologies. I had no idea you and Mrs. Clinton were so close. My mother has always warned me that sarcasm is not universally appreciated. Didn’t do any good , though.
    So, your impassioned defense must mean something? Are you, perhaps on the exploratory committee? She has to smell an opening especially given the weak Republican field. If anyone could schmooze over the politically incorrect notion of challenging the first "black" president, she and the Mr. could. Just wondering. 
    By the way, you often display a particular knack for ad hominem and ridicule. Perhaps you have another career option available if you tire of this some day? Law or community organizing?


  245. iflan/AAPL bull put yields – good stuff, man. For a guy like me still trying to put it all – or some of it together – having a sharpie articulate something I think I know is super helpful. Thx for this kind of quick hit lesson.


  246. stjean – If the conservative pre-reqs list covers Neut(ered), doesn’t one of your wives have to have cancer when you cheat on and divorce her? Or am I confusing him with another historian?


  247. I think you Libs are afraid of the Newt.


  248. Good morning!

    Futues up about 1% mostly on news Italy is cutting budget.  FTSE up half a point with DAX and CAC up 1%.  Once again the Shanghai was down (1.16%) while the Hang Seng was up (0.7%) and the Nikkei was up 0.6% and India was down a quarter-point.  

    Oil (/CL) touching $102 makes a good futures short, of course.  There’s NOTHING about Italian austerity that says "Buy more oil."  

    Gold back down to $1,745 is good for our GLLs.  

    Clinton/Pstas – I worked with her NY team in 2007 and was VERY disappointed that Obama beat her out in the primaries.  She’s a bright, intelligent woman with strong convictions and a very good heart – the kind of person we need in politics.  She’s not going to challenge Obama next year, that’s just silly.  I was pre-law in college, decided not to go that way but Community Organizing is still a career option.

    Afraid of Newt/Exec – Only that, since Bush, we can’t assume any candidate is awful enough not to become President anyway so yes, if the Reps ran Charles Manson, we’d be worried he could become President because it doesn’t matter how insane his policies are or what transgressions he’s had in his past or whether or not he knows anything about the issues or even whether or not people actually vote for him – NONE of that seems to stop a Republican from becoming President if his puppet-masters spend enough money and pull enough strings!  

    Monday’s economic calendar:

    10:00 Factory Orders

    10:00 Employment Trends Index

    10:00 ISM Non-Manufacturing Index

    1:10 PM Fed’s Evans: Economic Outlook

    Nicolas Sarkozy and Anglela Merkel are due to meet for lunch in Paris today as they look to overcome their differences on closer fiscal integration ahead of yet another EU summit on Friday. One Sarkozy aid has already slammed Merkel’s idea that the EU Court of Justice could overrule national budgets.   

    Pretty quiet data week:

    Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Forecast Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
    Dec 05 10:00 Factory Orders Oct   -0.6% -0.4% 0.3%  
    Dec 05 10:00 ISM Services Nov   53.0 53.4 52.9  
    Dec 07 07:00 MBA Mortgage Index 12/03   NA NA -11.7%  
    Dec 07 10:30 Crude Inventories 12/03   NA NA 3.932M  
    Dec 07 15:00 Consumer Credit Oct   $7.0B $7.0B $7.4B  
    Dec 08 08:30 Initial Claims 12/03   400K 395K 402K  
    Dec 08 08:30 Continuing Claims 11/26   3700K 3700K 3740K  
    Dec 08 10:00 Wholesale Inventories Oct   0.2% 0.2% -0.1%  
    Dec 09 08:30 Trade Balance Oct   -$44.0B -$44.0B -$43.1B  
    Dec 09 09:55 Mich Sentiment Dec   63.0 65.0 64.1  
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     


  249. Giants ALMOST beat Green Bay yesterday!  I guess we’ll take it…


  250. "Giants ALMOST beat Green Bay yesterday!  I guess we’ll take it…" / Phil
     
    Ho Ho Ho … 12 and 0, 12 and 0 ! If the Packers win the SB this year I think they’ll thank the Giants for smacking them around in this game.
     
    And re your possible presidential run. I’m imagining St Jean as your top econ adviser, JRW as Sec of Commerce, Pharm HHS maybe? Maybe make Cap ambassador to St Belize or somewhere nice to hopefully quiet the dissent but he’ll still prob come back to bite you in the rear anyway.


  251. @Felipe
    The republicans will not win the 2012 election.  Liberals and other democrats need not worry one second about that.  Certainly not to the degree that I see Felipe doing here. It’s already over and I have a buncha money on InTrade, that guarantees it. Barring any personal disaster that might befall Obama, one of the weakest, most inept politicians I have ever seen.
    TheBamster gets another shot at a 4 yr ride on Air Force One, however.  Anyone want the opposite bet for  $50,000$? 
    Hillary Rodman Clinton will never be POTUS.  Anyone who knows her other than thru her continually politically burnished image—-particularly past employees she had working for her at the White House, or other venues—-or in her previous lust for POTUS power, can’t stand the sight of her. 
    Over half the voters in this country would run to the republican party if she were the nominee, notwithstanding the machine behind her  which is populated with rabid hateful conniving democratic party partisans who would stop at nothing to get her into that Oral Office. It’s an obsession worthy of detailed scrutiny that they pinned their hopes on this woman and only this woman for the last 20 years, as if there is no other woman capable of wiinning the office. It smacks of a conspiracy, just as she thinks the right wing had a conspiracy against her and her whimsically charming silver-tongued  husband. She is a pot painting the kettle black. There is a conspiracy to get her into that office.
    That is not to say anyone in either party could run POTUSy any better than she can, unite the widely disparate peoples in this country frpm the bully pulpit.  The office is ‘unrunable’ in the macro sense, beholden as it is to people who really have all the power that we only get a glimpse of once in a while if  paying very strict attention, so she would be their front person, not her own.
    So it really comes down to what it mostly has always been: are the candidates popularly likeable?  She ain’t.
    Gingrich, Cain, hillary, buchanan, Bachmann, Paul and so many other current, former and future contenders are not —-to the majority—a preference of " likely to vote" people.
    Unfortunate in one way that  Hillary Care will never pass CONgress in our lifetimes, and not just because of republicans. They need another standard bearer that can get Health Insurance companies to start towing the line and state insurance commissioners probed for their ‘hands off’ attitude to their jobs.  And the payoffs.
    Or barring that impossibility, a health program, NOT INSURANCE BASED  thru without 2,000 pages of caveats, exclusions, and fascisistic gobbledygook in it. 
    go steelers…


  252. Phil/Newt
     
    Well I don’t know about all that…what you say pretty much applies to the Dems and Obama as well……..but I do think that the Dems are afraid of him because he’s the only Republican who is as an accomplished bullshit artist as Obama and thus he could be a formidable foe in the next election. 
    I think they would love to have Romney or any of the other goofballs win the nomination because Obama can talk his way around any of them.  More than likely they will pull some crap in the primaries like they did last year when they got that screwball McCain nominated.
     
     
    I think they’re praying that


  253. Flip,
     
    I wouldn’t bet the bank on it.  Obama won last time because of the white male and female votes that he got.  He won’t be getting them this time.
     
    I have friends that bought into the entire Bush lied and hope and change campaign.  Most of them are furious at Obama now because instead of helping them….(middle class)…their jobs are all in jeopardy because of his policies.  One of my buddies works for medical mutual and his job is on the chopping block due to health care reform.  Another sells medical supplies….same thing……another is in the insurance business….they’re getting waked big time.  These guys and their spouses….kids…..and other family members wouldn’t vote for Obama if he was the only person on the ticket.  Why…..because deep down everyone votes their own interest.
     
    The union and government worker issue is another factor that will keep once Obama supporters from coming back.  I think he was banking on getting the Hispanic vote, but Newt’s put a monkey wrench in that as well.


  254. This pre-market fade up seems so fake to me.   Optimism about a merkozy meeting?   Really? Where was that optimism last Friday?  Do people think Merkel will simply roll over this week after two years of stonewalling…I don’t think so.


  255. @Exec
    Not the bank, just $50,000? 
    Deal?