Phil's Stock World, Stock Options Trading & Information

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Thank God for Phil. A few months ago (April) I didn´t even know what hedging was, and someone recommended I should check out some of Phil´s plays, especially on the retirement portfolio. When I first started to read it, none of it made a blind bit of sense to me, but I stuck with it and gradually began to work through some of the trades to see how it worked. Now I am putting on 5:1 SPY backspreads combined with bear put spreads, entering and leaving positions after consulting the VIX, and engaging in other esoteric maneuvers that are keeping my portfolio above water.

- jmm1951

Phil - Moved today to send kudos. You're in my top 5 to see/read daily. I do not trade... but as former econ-finance adjunct faculty near Stanford U. I give you lots of attaboys.... and provide your links to many to spread some understanding of the mess we are in. Best to you and yours,

- HJ Kobbeman

Don't expect to get rich quick here, but you can get easy 30 - 50 % per year, just by buying good stocks at discount (as we often discuss), selling monthly premiums of calls and puts.

- Tchayipov

GIVE THANKS/PHIL Have not done my 10,000 hours, but a couple of years at PSW, and moved from fishing with a single line to owner of a commercial trawler (metaphorically speaking). Now I fish with many lines. It is amazing when you go over the same information time and time again, eventually it clicks. Like planting trees; being the house, 20% sale items, selling into the excitement. and patience. I just sold an AAPL Jan 12 340/390 BCS financed by the sales of Jan 12 275 Put. The trade was put on one year ago for a net credit and exited five minutes ago for a 49 dollar per contract profit. No point in waiting till opex to see what happens, and I will just sell 10 of those VLO puts to make myself net the round 50. I no longer worry about opex coming as I have adjusted well in time for most positions that go against me. I still make some howlers (RIMM, TBT, TRGT) but I play the percentages and my winners outdistance my losers by many miles. I would never be in this position if it were not for Phil. He is a treasure, pure and simple. The goose that lays the golden egg if we care to listen and practice. Phil, a mighty big thank you.

- Winston

GOOG, NFLX and AAPL all bought last hour Friday. Sold into the excitement the first hour today for an average of 15% on the options. And lots of them. Thanks again Phil for teaching me so well.

- lflantheman

Hi Mr. Phill, I am a Venezuelan lady tormented by our politicall situation, who use to be an emerging market trader, and many other executive positins in the finance "arena" and now is trying to built a new concept and service for asset management for clients on my own, I am in the trial and learning process at the moment, I also invest for some friends and myself. I want to congratulate you , because reading you fill my days with a touch of irony (besides ,of course the spectacular market insight) that happens to give me energy, its a joy the remarks and comments even the pictures used, sometimes I just read it for the fun, I completily agree with your thouhts, though we belong to totally different cultures and enviorements and certanly realities Your readings is like a little hand helping me out to be in the market and fight for my devastated country where every single day we looe inches and yards of liberty. You shoul try to writte a book!

- Mindeyes

I picked up one of your recommended Gold plays, the July ABX 30s and sold the Feb 35s, which are now mostly intrinsic value. Is it time to roll these to the March 37.50s, or should I wait this spike out?

- Bill Hoffman

Phil: I have 263 positions - 70% in options ( balance stocks) in three portfolios with a value of 3 mil. YTD profit is about $750,000. Thanks!

- Gel1

I took $2 (up 133%) and ran on those USO puts, quite a bit more than the 20 you played in the $25KP. Thank you once again for turning a bad market week into a great personal week. You will be happy to know I am back to cashy and cautious with a few of your favorite longs into the weekend. Thanks to Phil, JRW and all the members who share their knowledge here.

- Dennis

Phil- I would like to echo the sentiments of dclark41. Joining this site was the best thing I have ever done to aid my growth as a trader/investor. There are so many smart and experienced people here sharing their ideas that regardless what your investing style is you will learn something daily. Thank you and all the regular contributors for your generosity.

- Acd54

Hi Phil, Thanks for the free disaster hedge ideas. I implemented variations of two of them on SDS bull call spreads and EEM bear put spreads (haven't done the TZA yet) and they really hedged my short term longs nicely today. Makes it seem a lot less like gambling. You are the man (of the people)!

- Howard Roake

Phil - I caught the interview…. terrific!. Your host recommended that the viewers should " go to your site, as you will be entertained ". That is for sure if you consider entertainment is laughing while you read, learn and make unbelievable leveraged profits that you never thought were possible. That is my kind of entertainment !

- Gel1

1,000% on SKF - It was a freakin' monster into the center field bleachers! I saw it play out live and squawked it from the StockTwits ID which 14k people follow: Home run trade of the week @philstockworld just knocked cover off ball w $SKF puts. http://bit.ly/piBL Great trade bud!

- Phil Pearlman - StockTwits

Phil: That NFLX call was awesome. The speed at which NFLX options decayed was precipitous. The blow out spike that allowed me to double and roll my callers to 190(!) and the ridiculous 170 weeklies @3.50 a day away from Op-Ex. The gains I realized in that trade floored me when I took a long at my portfolio value on Friday. What a great way to start the 3rd Quarter.

- Kinkistyle

Phil: well, often you say, just for FUN, great comment, TXS, closed 2 SKF positions, one with 10 % , the other with 6 % gain,

- RMM

Once again, many muchos for the SODA trade of last week. Finally out of all three legs. I didn't want to wait for expiration tomorrow and the possible peg at $70.00, following your dictum to not get greedy.

- flipspiceland

Thanks to Phil (again) for the lessons on the art of the roll, selling premium and hanging tight under fire (particularly in the first hour of trading-MADNESS). Watching you manage the $25KP has really helped my trading in a big way.

- Oknoman

Phil, You were on the $ today with your calls almost exactly on the turns – Krap kuhn krup (Thai for thank you very much).

- Jomptien

WOW, glad I went bearish… Phil, thanks for the help on the QID calls yesterday, I turned it into a partial cover rolling down to the Feb 52s selling the 55s 1/2 covered. Sold 1/2 and now lowered my cost basis to $4.38 on the $52s (fully covered).

- Texasmotion

Sold out my AAPL mar95 calls. Up over 100% today on them!

- Singapore Steve

BTW Phil, I wanted to relate a conversation I had with my business partner yesterday. I told him that I have been much more relaxed about my investments ever since I joined your site. It's funny how a 15-20% cushion does to your nerves. My returns have increased dramatically and my risk diminished. Many thanks for the guidance and patience. Good thing I am doing better financially as you might have increased my life expectancy as well!

- StJeanluc

Phil… My portfolio, in the past few months, has acheived a high degree of stabilization. I've noticed that on up days, down days, even days, it doesn't matter, my portfolio rarely varies more than 2%. And over the long haul it just slowly increases in value. I attribute this not to investment choices, but to style. Thanks to you and others on this site I'm paying close attention to position size, delta neutrality, downside protection, and concentrating on selling premium rather than buying it. I've developed increasing patience, not having to trade daily, or even weekly. I'm concentrating on the finer points of trading, letting the profits come to me, rather than the other way around. I appreciate the help everyone here has given in getting me focused on this principle. I'm pumped!…in a calm sort of way.

- Iflantheman

Took profit on QQQ 57 Puts, bot 40 at $0.07, sold 20 for $0.15 and 20 for $0.32. Thank, Phil

- Bobhu

Phil Thank you very much, I appreciate your help and wisdom.

- CdsdpDean

Phil - Another excellent teaching article - when you write like that it blows me away. Thank you! I had the ideas from earlier articles but what I didn't have was enough understanding. The familiarity of ideas through repetition, re-working, revision - over time - the variation, the pulling out of implications - it all contributes to understanding and mostly thats on the student - but a good teacher (worth their weight in gold) makes understanding a pleasure. I wanted to learn about trading options because it makes my brain feel better - fitter, healthier. Actually mostly it makes me happy to think about the trade and trading options. You are a good teacher and I know that or I wouldn't value the subscription the way I do. It pays for itself through the pleasure of understanding alone.

- Redfern1

Phil - Thanks for the welcoming gift of the POT at a buck Just paid for this month and my membership is not even 24 hours old! looking forward to many more - bk

- Bjkeck

Phil/BCS - Didn't realise they traded here. Should've known really. Thanks for the tip. managed to pick some up just before the close at a 15% discount to the UK closing price.

- DB

I can't believe it. After 2 Months of reading every post of every section on this site, the light bulb finaly went on. I was begining to think this was beyond me capacity to understand. Thanks Guys. Specifically Phil, Pharm, Cap, Matt. Im still Green as a leprechaun but I pulled the trigger on that SRS Vertical you laid down yesterday Phil. Very Clever. Now if I can just figure how to roll I migh make some money. Thanks for sharing, This community you have here is quite remarkable.

- Zucko

Phil - Your logic not only makes sense, but it made a lot of premium profit for me over the past 12 months. I have recovered much of the massive equity losses of last year. My Monday play is the sale of long term puts on FXI. Love the premium!

- Gel1

I am a Registered Nurse, so is my wife. We work hard to take care of seven kids that are the joy of our lives. The cost for a basic membership is ALOT from our our monthly budget of spending and saving…but well worth it! Phil has allowed me to really ramp up the savings we put away for our children's college funds and our retirement.

- David

2012

by Sabrient - February 2nd, 2012 12:00 am

Top 5 Divers
Stock	Rating	Analysis
HSP	STRONGSELL	Projected value for Hospira is diminishing and long term growth rates are declining — someone throw them a lifeline.
CCL	STRONGSELL	Projected long-term growth for Carnival is going down, expected value is decreasing, and tough times are ahead.
EOC	STRONGSELL	We project an unfortunate decrease in value for ENDESA, and we’re not alone in this opinion as other analysts are also reducing expectations.
APC	STRONGSELL	Recent earnings changes for Anadarko are troublesome, as is a sinking projected valuation.
ALTR	SELL	Analysts are lowering long-term growth expectations for Altera, and showing agreement about short-term earnings declines as well.

Posted in Immediately available to public | No Comments »

Corinthian Colleges Call Options In Demand After Earnings Beat

www.interactivebrokers.com

by Option Review - February 1st, 2012 1:54 pm

Today’s tickers: COCO, IPXL & BEN

COCO - Corinthian Colleges, Inc. – Shares in the for-profit provider of post-secondary, career-oriented education programs increased as much as 44.2% to an intraday high of $4.37 at the start of the session after the Company’s full-year 2012 earnings forecast of $0.30 a share beat average analyst expectations of $0.24 a share. The stock is off earlier post-earnings report highs, but continues to trade up 30.0% on the day at $3.93 as of 12:30 p.m. in New York. Options traders positioning for shares in Corinthian Colleges to extend gains in the near term purchased more than 2,800 calls at the Feb. $4.0 strike for an average premium of $0.27 apiece. Investors long the calls may profit at February expiration in the event that COCO’s shares rally 8.7% over the current price of $3.93 to exceed the average breakeven point at $4.27. Bullish call buying spread to the Mar. $4.0 strike, where around 375 contracts were purchased for an average premium of $0.38 each.

IPXL - Impax Laboratories, Inc. – The specialty pharmaceutical company popped up on our ‘hot by options volume’ market scanner this morning after one strategist took a large stake in front-month calls. Shares in Impax Laboratories surged 10.85% to $20.93 today on news Impax Pharmaceuticals, the branded drugs unit of Hayward, California-based Impax Laboratories, Inc., licensed exclusive U.S. commercial rights to Zomig® from AstraZeneca. Zomig is a drug used to treat acute migraine headaches with or without aura. The options trader responsible for the single largest transaction in IPXL options today appears to have purchased 2,000 calls at the Feb. $20 strike for an average premium of $0.80 per contract. The size of the position is noteworthy relative to overall open interest of…

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Tags: BEN, COCO, IPXL

Wall of Worry Wednesday – View From the Top

by Phil - February 1st, 2012 8:16 am

Here's your "rally."

You'd better be making money in the markets because your cash, your home, your savings, your income – everything else you have has been slashed 5% in the past 18 days in order to make you feel better about the markets. Americans have roughly $100Tn in Dollar-denominated assets and it cost us $5Tn in less than 3 weeks to prop up the markets. Was it worth it? Will the next 5% be worth it too?

Welcome to the World of weak-Dollar policies. The Fed confirmed it's rumored $1Tn extension of QE on the 24th, by extending ZIRP through 2014 (and we did the math on the price of that policy last Thursday), $1Tn is nearly a 10% expansion of our Money Supply so of course the Dollar begins selling off but one would think the equally easy ECB would balance it out a bit but, so far, not at all as the Euro was already unnaturally weak against the Dollar out of fear of a currency collapse. As that comes off the table, even the Trillions of Euros being shoveled into bailouts seem RESPONSIBLE when compared to our own Fed's constant money drops. At least the EU demands to see some sort of balance sheet improvements before they hand out funds…

SPY 5 MINUTE So far, the chart remains the same and we have the same gap up from $131.20 on the SPY to our $132 ceiling (see yesterday's notes) that we have had day after day after day as the pre-market programs do their very best to give us the illusion of strength – even while our currency is collapsing and that $132 we can get for one of our SPY shares buys 5% less stuff than it did 3 weeks ago.

But the chart LOOKS good and we got our official "golden cross" yesterday but, funny thing – it did not set off a buying frenzy – did it? One might pause to wonder why buyers are ignoring the most significant technical buy signal the markets can give if one were inclined to think but that is an activity that is actively discouraged in America these days and believe me – they'll know if you try it!

That's right, we are now arresting people for tweeting as homeland security yanked Leigh Van Bryan off a plane, detained him and sent him home…

Join Member's Chat - 318 Comments Here »

Sabrient Risers – 2/1/2012

by Sabrient - February 1st, 2012 12:00 am

Top 5 Risers
Stock	Rating	Analysis
ASBC	BUY	Many analysts are expecting higher than previously expected long term growth from Associated Bancorp, and its near-term earnings outlook is also improving.
BC	BUY	Brunswick has shown a remarkable increase in projected value recently, with the majority of analysts expecting higher than previously expected earnings.
KMT	BUY	Kennametal is one of the top candidates projected to achieve both higher than previously projected earnings in the short run and a higher earnings growth rate in the long run.
CZZ	STRONGBUY	The recent earnings history for Cosan Ltd shows significant improvement while projected valuation continues to rise.
OKS	STRONGBUY	Many analysts are expecting higher than previously expected long term growth from ONEOK Partners, and its near-term earnings outlook is also improving.

Posted in Immediately available to public | No Comments »

Sabrient Divers – 02/01/2012

by Sabrient - February 1st, 2012 12:00 am

Top 5 Divers
Stock	Rating	Analysis
HSP	STRONGSELL	Projected value for Hospira is diminishing and long term growth rates are declining — someone throw them a lifeline.
CCL	STRONGSELL	Projected long-term growth for Carnival is going down, expected value is decreasing, and tough times are ahead.
FCX	SELL	A consensus is building that Freeport-McMoRan is showing weakening near term and long term prospects.
EOC	STRONGSELL	We project an unfortunate decrease in value for ENDESA, and we’re not alone in this opinion as other analysts are also reducing expectations.
ALTR	SELL	A consensus is building that Altera is showing weakening near term and long term prospects.

Posted in Immediately available to public | No Comments »

CBO REPORT – OMG!

by ilene - January 31st, 2012 9:47 pm

Courtesy of Bruce Krasting

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) is out with its annual report. It’s a blockbuster. This 165 page monster is filled with dozens of charts, graphs and detailed projections. It will be talked about for weeks. The report provides a dismal outlook for the economy. There is one data point I'd like to focus on.

Here is the CBO forecast for real GDP for 2012 and 2013:

The 1.1% Real GDP number for 2013 surprised me. The CBO’s expectations are way under those of both the “Blue Chip” economists and the Federal Reserve:

What does it mean if the economy is going to slow, as CBO now thinks? Some consequences:

The CBO now forecasts Social Security to run into trouble in just a few years. This is a very substantial change in the outlook for SS. Changed fortunes make it certain that America’s favorite entitlement program will be on the table for a significant re-vamp.

The CBO has answered two critical question:

1) In what year does SS first goes into deficit (including interest)?

2) What is the size of the SS Trust Fund when #1 has been achieved?

Key data is here:

Using this information, we can estimate the Trust Funds (TF) balances over time, and compare them to what SS forecast in its report to Congress ten-months ago:

SSTF's "Intermediate" (Base) case:

The bottom line is that the SSTF is going to top out three years ahead of “schedule” and be $800B shy of what it was “supposed” to be.

I think the CBO report has created a big headache for a good number of folks in D.C. Most of them are running for office this year. They certainly won't be able to wave the CBO report as a measure of how well they are doing.

Posted in Appears on main page, Immediately available to public, Phil's Favorites | No Comments »

Chart School

Apple Computer and Newton's Law of Gravity

February 9th, 2012 6:35 pm

Courtesy of Doug Short.

Advisor Perspectives welcomes guest contributions. The views presented here do not necessarily represent those of Advisor Perspectives.

The Power of the Pattern suggested that Apple could run up to $500 on a breakout of resistance. See the first chart below, which I included in my January 20th post here.

Click for a larger image...

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ETF Selector

Greece Makes Deal, Markets Yawn (VGK, VXX, FXE, SPY, DIA)

February 9th, 2012 5:35 pm

Courtesy of John Nyaradi.

After days of wrangling, Greek political leaders agreed to new austerity and markets yawned.

Greece made an 11th hour seal with the “troika” to cut costs further and impose greater austerity programs in its bid to get another round of bailout money, but even as the announcement was made, grumblings started as to whether the terms were enough to meet the conditions for the next bailout.

But investors greeted the news with caution, even skepticism in today’s market action.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (NYSEARCA:DIA) gained +0.04% for a virtually flat day

S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:...

Phil's Favorites

Economists Surprised Again By Unemployment Claims, Should Not Have Been

February 9th, 2012 5:17 pm

Economists Surprised Again By Unemployment Claims, Should Not Have Been

Courtesy of Lee Adler of the Wall Street Examiner

The mainstream media proclaimed an unexpected "beat" of the first time unemployment claims number today. The fake, seasonally fudged number dropped to 358,000 in the week ended February 4. According to Bloomberg, the consensus of economists' expectations was for 370,000. Aside from the fact that whether economists get a forecast right or not seems to be completely random, two facts stand out. First, the number that they are looking at is made up and fictional. Second the trend of the actual weekly number has been...

Zero Hedge

CME Cuts Gold, Silver, Platinum And Copper Margins

February 9th, 2012 5:03 pm

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

It has been so long since the CME cut gold and silver margins that frankly we are a little bit stunned... In an extended announcement, which saw outright margins for virtually every commodity get cut, the CME just lowered Initial and Maintenance margins of gold (by 12%) and silver (13%), to $7500 maintenance for GC and $16000 maintenance for SI. Did the paper bull trap season just open? And how long before these are re-hiked by 15%, 20% or more? For...

Insider Scoop

How To Trade LinkedIn After Earnings

February 9th, 2012 2:47 pm

Courtesy of Benzinga.

On Thursday after the closing bell, LinkedIn (NYSE: LNKD) will be releasing its quarterly earnings results. Wall Street analysts have consensus earnings per share estimates of $0.07 heading into the report. The high estimate is $0.11 with a low estimate of $0.04.

Since the company only came public last May, there is no year ago earnings data. Over the last 3 months, earnings estimates for LNKD have been moving aggressively higher from a projected loss of $0.01 to the current consensus calling for a profit of $0.07 per share.

During this time, LNKD shares have risen 1.66%. In each of the last two quarters, LNKD has beaten Street consensus earnings ...

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Market Montage

Manoj Bhargava, the Man Behind 5 Hour Energy

February 9th, 2012 2:30 pm

Submitted by Mark Hanna

Courtesy of MarketMontage. View original post here.

Manoj Bhargava.

Who?

Yes that is what I said too…

While this is a private company, I found it to be a fascinating story since it is always interesting to hear where these out of the blue blockbuster products come from. I had no idea it was a local story as well. I had heard Detroit Lions coach Jim Schwartz was at the Super Bowl, on the dole (i.e. pitching) 5 Hour Energy and it seemed like a strange connection, but now I see why he was a choice (again, local). Believe it or not I've never imbibed any sort of energy drink such as Monster or Red Bull, nor have I touched this 5 Hour Energy...

Option Review

Appetite For Diamond Foods Options Rises As Shares Tumble

February 9th, 2012 1:55 pm

Today’s tickers: DMND, MHS & TRIP

...

Sabrient

Sector Detector: Quack, quack…ducks are lining up for the bulls

February 9th, 2012 1:31 am

Courtesy of Scott Martindale, Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

The stock market is behaving extremely well from a technical perspective. And why not? The world seems stable enough to give investors the confidence to maintain a “risk-on” allocation. Sure, there is still plenty to worry about. But more and more, investors are growing bolder. The Dow is at its highest level since 2008 and wants to challenge 13,000. The Nasdaq is at its highest level since 2000.

All the central banks are joining forces to keep debt-laden countries solvent and prevent Europe (and by extension, the planet) from falling back into recession. And in this election year, the Obama administration is ensuring that all efforts are focused on supporting the economy and creating an environment conducive to job growth. History shows that re-election is nearly impossible o...

All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

February 8th, 2012 1:40 pm

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.

To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of February 6th, 2012

February 6th, 2012 9:02 am

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options.

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here

Optrader

...

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Stock World Weekly

Stock World Weekly: The Relentless Pursuit of Meaningless Metrics

February 5th, 2012 5:19 am

NEW: Elliott and Ilene are available to chat with Members regarding topics presented in SWW, comments are found below each post.

Here's the latest Stock World Weekly, called "The Relentless Pursuit of Meaningless Metrics."

...

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IRA Strategy/Income Trader

Weekend Virtual Portfolio Update 1/30/2012

January 30th, 2012 7:22 am

Here is a quick update of past trades and our current position. AA Money No trade this week as we wait for AA to settle. Phil remarked last week that AA seemed overvalued. In the meantime, it looks like we might have to roll our Feb 9 calls. Good thing we sold only 5 of them against our position. Last week P&L - 310.00 We lost ground last week, but we still have 11 months to sell premium! FAS Money Very good week for FAS Money as we benefited from the large amount of premium sold the previous week. We covered most of the shorts in advance of the Fed speech, but sold another set of options on Wednesday after the speech - 2 FAS calls that expired worthless on Friday, 2 FAS put that we are still holding and 2 FAZ put that we bought back for a profit on Friday. A late stick comparable to last week's almost gave us problems at the end of the day though! Last week P&L - $4277.00 IWM Money A decent week in this virtual portfo...

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Pharmboy

Biotech Investing for 2012

January 18th, 2012 1:09 am

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Finding new and exciting Biotech companies that target novel mechanisms is like trying to find a needle in a haystack. Sure there are many companies working on cutting edge science, but investing in those companies to reap the rewards of their work is a very dangerous game. More often than not, companies fail because the mechanism does not pan out, the compound(s) do not have pharmacokinetics (get into the body or last very long in the body), or an adverse event happens that knocks years off a development timeline. In addition, the stock can be manipulated by market makers so investors don't know which way is up. I approach investing in biotechs as a long term prospect. I continue to like our current portfolio of biotech companies (join in chat for many of those plays), and we continually add/subtract shares and sell/buy options on ...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the Favorites backup site (blogroll, archives, more). Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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